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Triplell
Triplell
Joined: Aug 13, 2010
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January 13th, 2012 at 8:27:45 PM permalink
So I head to the craps table in between waiting for a poker table to open up. I stand next to a don't bettor, who is betting $200 flat on the Don't pass (He laid minimum odds). The casino offers 100x odds with a $5 minimum, so I see the man as somewhat foolish, as he could get seemingly better advantage (or rather, worse disadvantage) by taking advantage of the casinos low limit with generous odds. Also it was alarming to see the guy placing $200 bets with only $10 odds.

However, it didn't take me long to figure out the man's reasoning. Every so often, he would only place a $100 bet on the come out roll, and after the come out roll, he would add an additional $100 with his odds.

At first, I figured maybe he just accidentally did so, and was unaware that adding to his don't pass bet was in his favor. However, after it happened multiple times (that I noticed, but the dealers didn't), I was pretty sure that the man was completely aware of what he was doing.

Let's say on average, the man partook in this practice every 10th roll. What would his overall EV be?
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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January 13th, 2012 at 9:33:17 PM permalink
The probability of rolling a 7 before a random point is 0.59393939 (98/165)

So, the $100 past post is worth $18.79, less the $1.36 EV from the first $100 = $17.43

The normal $200 bet loses $2.73

By my calcs, still -EV at once every 10 rolls, losing $10 every 10 rolls. Have to step up the ruse to once every 6 rolls or so to break even.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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January 13th, 2012 at 11:04:18 PM permalink
Yup, it's cheating to add to a don't pass' flat bet, but not to its lay odds.
Shame enough that the dealers didn't catch this "capping" after the point got established, but for surveillance to miss this...yikes...

Quote: dwheatley

...Have to step up the ruse to once every 6 rolls or so to break even...


I wouldn't advise casino cheating as a method to "break even," unless you're willing to conver the fines and defense attorney expenses.
I've seen people get arrested and get police records for bet capping (this is more than just "advantage play"), and dealers get fired.
You never really get even again if this happens.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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January 13th, 2012 at 11:18:01 PM permalink
I'm somewhat confused. He's adding $100 to his odds after the come out, or he's adding $100 to his Don't Pass after the come out? The latter's cheating, the former's fine.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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January 13th, 2012 at 11:22:34 PM permalink
He's adding - sneaking a cap - to the flat bet part (illegal), - while also legally making the odds lay bet as a cover move.
A pretty standard "bet capping" maneuver, if the base dealer on a crap game isn't tracking the don't bettors' flat bets closely.
Surveillance often misses it, too.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 14th, 2012 at 3:27:17 AM permalink
Note: Usually cheats know what they are doing.

Now as to working out the math there is one major question to be resolved.

Do we work the analysis from his bets made or from his money at risk viewpoint?
You can add up all his foolishly high flat bets and foolishly low odds bets and then compare that with the every tenth "secretly capped" bet but I think it makes more sense to add up all his money in play and compare it to the opportunity he had to make lower flat bets and concentrate his money on the odds portions of the bet.

If you look at this way, he has a long way to go to "break even" much less to be at some sort of "advantage". So it is quite possible that the casino is intentionally turning a blind eye to his flatbet-capping behavior. It means he is a cheat but a stupid cheat. Its like the shooter who dropped an extra die from his sleeve, the boxman said "go ahead and roll... your point is 16".

All joking aside, he is a cheat but he is not really getting away with all that much and he is probably just an idiot.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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January 14th, 2012 at 5:56:13 AM permalink
cheating or -- if he's caught -- he claims an "error" and he meant the extra chip to go as "odds."

He can keep doing this until he's caught doing it. Then he'll be warned.

My question is why the dealers don't see this? Game protection is their #1 duty.

Which reminds me of how the dice sliding got by the Wynn dealers??

You've got to wonder if the dealers are in on it?
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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January 14th, 2012 at 6:13:42 AM permalink
Dealers all too often gear themselves to the day of work that they're expecting, or hoping for.
Many are just trying to get through their shift without making waves.
Some don't notice small shots, some don't care, or care more to ignore it and let the next loss handle it, but very few are in collusion.
Don't attribute to malfeasance to what can be attributed to incompetence, bad attitude, or minimal compliance.
Some dealers do spot it, and nip it in the bud, and the player knows it's all serious and so it stops.
Attention to detail is everyone's #1 job, but "minimal compliance practice" exists all over the place, everywhere.

The player would have trouble claiming ignorance, especially if previously warned. Ignorance of the law....
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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January 14th, 2012 at 7:12:51 AM permalink
Its not ignorance or mistake ... he is a shot taker who is perhaps best classified as a minimalist. Intermittently trying to set himself up for a slight little bonus. Meanwhile he is risking his money. Its similar to a guy who slips a few extra greens into the circle at Blackjack while his wife is ramming ten grand through slot machines. Its a small price for the casino to pay.

Crew collusion? No. Probably not. They have probably noticed what has happened even though they probably missed it the first few times.
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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January 14th, 2012 at 7:29:22 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Its a small price for the casino to pay.


Bullshit rationalization for the cheater. Especially because you, the gambler pays, not the casino. If we're open for business, it's because we've already covered our nut from your outlay.
You see, you the customer will foot the bill for the transgrestion of others, just as you pay more for insurance when others commit insurance fraud. It's more similar to the guy who is the petty thief that everyone else has to pay for. If you wanna justify it as a "small price to pay," - then it will indeed be you who pays for it when you walk into a casino. Don't kid yourself.
Complain about "bad rules?" High house edges?
All gamblers cover for the cheating gambler when we all need to be competitive.
As for minimalism, a petty thief is just a thief on your dime.

Quote: Fleastiff

Crew collusion? No. Probably not. They have probably noticed what has happened even though they probably missed it the first few times.


Very True. No love lost for the casino owner, on the part of most dealers or pit crews.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.

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