Lay Bets On Come Out

While reading a very old forum archive (elsewhere), I found a betting strategy to lay all numbers (4,5,6,8,9,10) for $31 each. Hoping for a come out seven, you would get a payout of ($93?). It also calls to cover craps and yo for $6-8 each and to also put minimum on the pass line. If a point is rolled, you take down all lays and continue on however you'd like.

Thoughts?

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

While reading a very old forum archive (elsewhere), I found a betting strategy to lay all numbers (4,5,6,8,9,10) for $31 each. Hoping for a come out seven, you would get a payout of ($93?). It also calls to cover craps and yo for $6-8 each and to also put minimum on the pass line. If a point is rolled, you take down all lays and continue on however you'd like.

Thoughts?

Except you can't take down the lay bet for the point just rolled, since you just lost it.

Sounds pretty stupid to me, as the lay bets on 6, 8, 5, and 9 have significantly higher house edges (1.22% on the 6 and 8, 0.90% on the 5 and 9) than just playing pass/don't pass with full odds (taken from WOO craps page). The Craps and Yo bets carry even higher house edges and are truly sucker bets. The only part that makes sense to me is the pass line, which you should take full odds on.

You will lose money at a rate that approaches the weighted average of the house edges of all the bets you make combined...that's the bottom line. If you want the smallest house edge, bet the don't pass and lay full odds. This is what I do and it's a lot of fun if you don't mind verbal abuse and getting the stink eye from the rest of the table if you win. Alternately bet the pass and take full odds, it's barely worse.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Sounds pretty stupid to me, as the lay bets on 6, 8, 5, and 9 have significantly higher house edges (1.22% on the 6 and 8, 0.90% on the 5 and 9) than just playing pass/don't pass with full odds (taken from WOO craps page).

You will lose money at a rate that approaches the weighted average of the house edges of all the bets you make combined...that's the bottom line..

That is what I was thinking. High Odds that a point will be established and you lose $31 for an expected return of $93 on a come out 7. Than you take down the other lays, you still could lose whatever action you have.

Just seems like another field spread bet.

I watched a guy lay all the numbers for $60 each (4/10 win $30, 5/9 win $40, 6/8 win $50, all x2) and he just kept them up...on a cold table he made a killing because it seems like all that was rolling was horns and 7s...on the other hand, that strategy can bankrupt you quick...

Quote: TIMSPEED

I watched a guy lay all the numbers for $60 each (4/10 win $30, 5/9 win $40, 6/8 win $50, all x2) and he just kept them up...on a cold table he made a killing because it seems like all that was rolling was horns and 7s...on the other hand, that strategy can bankrupt you quick...

If you remember, how did the dealers take the vig from him? The total winnings possible in that scenario would be 240, so 5% would be $12...but if they took each bet individually and rounded up then it would be $14 I think ( ($2 + $2 + $3) * 2). Also as each number hit and that lay bet went down and back up, he'd have to pay the rounded-up fee most likely.

I saw someone do the that lay a few months back.

You lay $186. If the 7 rolls, you win $15 + 20 + 25 + 25 + 20 + 15 = $120. If a number rolls, you lose $31. If a craps rolls, you don't lose anything but you keep your bet up.

Given that there are 6 ways to win and 24 ways to lose, your house edge is $120 x 1/5 - 31 x 4/5 = $.80. The house edge on this one roll bet is .43%. Really, however, you only are betting $31 dollars so I would put the house edge at 0.80 / 31 = 2.58%. It's not an awful bet, certainly better than betting $31 on any 7 which has an expected loss of $5.17.

The thing is of course with this bet is that you have a four in five shot of throwing a point over the 7. That's 80%. It would not be out of this world for ten come outs to be resolved with a number (odds: 10.74% at that time). Streaks of 20 in a row wouldn't be uncommon. So, what a player usually will do after a long string of losses is try to get their money back. If you are playing with a small bankroll (<1K) using this bet, you will likely bankrupt yourself or change your methodology after a losing streak. And betting $31 on a 7 before a point to me seems just boring.

Quote: boymimbo

I saw someone do the that lay a few months back.

You lay $186. If the 7 rolls, you win $15 + 20 + 25 + 25 + 20 + 15 = $120. If a number rolls, you lose $31. If a craps rolls, you don't lose anything but you keep your bet up.

Given that there are 6 ways to win and 24 ways to lose, your house edge is $120 x 1/5 - 31 x 4/5 = $.80. The house edge on this one roll bet is .43%. Really, however, you only are betting $31 dollars so I would put the house edge at 0.80 / 31 = 2.58%. It's not an awful bet, certainly better than betting $31 on any 7 which has an expected loss of $5.17.

The thing is of course with this bet is that you have a four in five shot of throwing a point over the 7. That's 80%. It would not be out of this world for ten come outs to be resolved with a number (odds: 10.74% at that time). Streaks of 20 in a row wouldn't be uncommon. So, what a player usually will do after a long string of losses is try to get their money back. If you are playing with a small bankroll (<1K) using this bet, you will likely bankrupt yourself or change your methodology after a losing streak. And betting $31 on a 7 before a point to me seems just boring.

More fun to me after a session at the craps table, just put all your eggs in one basket and lay your whole stack behind the 4 or the 10. Win or lose, cash out and go home! (I guess if you lose, nothing to cash out...)

Aces,
The vig was $6 ($1 for every number)
Edit: I was off on my lays...$60, $45, and $36, respectively..($30 win on each number)

Quote: TIMSPEED

Aces,
The vig was $6 ($1 for every number)
Edit: I was off on my lays...$60, $45, and $36, respectively..($30 win on each number)

Hmmm so they were rounding down the vigs? It should have been $1.50 on each number

Quote: boymimbo

The thing is of course with this bet is that you have a four in five shot of throwing a point over the 7. That's 80%.
It would not be out of this world for ten come outs to be resolved with a number (odds: 10.74% at that time).

Streaks of 20 in a row wouldn't be uncommon.

I also agree.
From the first chart below, Streaks of length 10 or more come out points and 7 winners (not counting the 2, 3, 11 and 12s on the come out roll) look to be at the 50% chance at 30 come out rolls.
Streaks of length 20 or more come out points (not counting the 2, 3, 11 and 12s on the come out roll) look to be at the 50% chance at 300 come out rolls.


Not uncommon for any player in an evening of play to see 100 come out rolls.
Average Number of streaks of length 10 or more per 100 come out rolls (only counting 7s and points that roll) is ~2


Number of streaks of length 20 or more per 100 come out rolls (only counting 7s and points that roll)

Quote: AcesAndEights

Hmmm so they were rounding down the vigs? It should have been $1.50 on each number

It's called pushing the house. You can sometimes negotiate the vigs, or they are just lower at certain casinos.

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

It's called pushing the house. You can sometimes negotiate the vigs, or they are just lower at certain casinos.

Yeah I've never really tried to push it on the rounding or negotiating of the vigs...will have to keep that in mind.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Yeah I've never really tried to push it on the rounding or negotiating of the vigs...will have to keep that in mind.

Yup, I do it all the time. The particular house I play only charges $1 vig per $30 and only collects on wins...