Is it wrong to quit when you're ahead?
I have never run into that kind of comment at a craps table. In craps, you bolt from the table after a hot roll or two, or when you have a substantial profit. You take the money and run... until next time. And I never heard of a craps player told there was "no logic" in leaving the table with the casino's money.
Can someone please explain to me why it's okay to leave the craps table with a profit till next time, but it's not OK to leave a video poker machine because you hit a profit or a win goal?
I wrote about this on my site, got lots of views, but no comments. I'm hoping for some info here. Thanks.
They understand that the notion of "trends" is just another form of mental masturbation.
Either you play with an edge, or you don't.
Every time I enter a casino, I have an established amount of money that I am willing to lose, but I want to make the most of my money and play something that will give me the fairest chance of winning something while also playing something that I enjoy. If i'm feeling frisky i'll play some craps or BJ, but for the most part I stick to $.25 video poker machines since I can enjoy myself for a decent amount of time and if i lose, i know that over the long run I can expect to recover a number reasonably close to the EV of the game. The excitement of gambling comes from the possibility that my money will yield a profit on any given day, so the idea of "quitting while i'm ahead" seems to be a no-brainer for my play. Granted, I'm not going to quit while I'm ahead if I'm up $50 in the first 10 minutes, but if I start winning I'll typically set a lower limit on my winnings to guarantee that at least for this session, I walk away ahead. Then if I still have some time left I'll go check out the area, find a local bar, or do something else with my winnings but just to gamble for x number of hours doesn't seem logical to me. Yes I understand that fluctuations will happen but if I'm going to set a bankroll limit for the day, why wouldn't I set a lower limit for my winnings for the day? This limit changes for me as I play, so if I happen to hit a big hand and I previously decided that I would walk away if I dropped to a profit margin of $100, then I might alter that to now walk away if I drop to $150 or something of the sort.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to personal preference. If you are playing for longevity and just trying to have a good time, then I find setting a profit minimum makes it more enjoyable for me. If you're trying to log hours and get as many hands in as possible, then this won't be as great of an idea.
Gambling is supposed to be enjoyable.... at least thats how I see it.
Ding, ding, ding!Quote: MrVVideo poker players are not as superstitious as craps players.
There's your answer right there.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI have to admit that I'm in the throes of a dispute with those who claim to be "advantage video poker players." These "advantage players" say there is "no logic" in quitting when you're ahead in a session because all video poker play is just one continuous session even when you take a break for lunch or for a night, or even for six months until your next casino visit.
I have never run into that kind of comment at a craps table. In craps, you bolt from the table after a hot roll or two, or when you have a substantial profit. You take the money and run... until next time. And I never heard of a craps player told there was "no logic" in leaving the table with the casino's money.
Can someone please explain to me why it's okay to leave the craps table with a profit till next time, but it's not OK to leave a video poker machine because you hit a profit or a win goal?
I wrote about this on my site, got lots of views, but no comments. I'm hoping for some info here. Thanks.
As long as you have the advantage and the bankroll, being ahead or behind is not a reason to stop playing. Advantage play is about making money and that's not always the goal of the recreational player. There are no advantage craps players.
You can't leave with the casinos money. That would be stealing. If you can leave with it, it's YOUR money.
Quote: odiousgambitI keep discarding what I want to say, it won't come out right. But my thoughts are that you cannot compare the objectives of an advantage player with the objectives of negative expectation players.
I CAN ANSWER THAT! An advantage player earns money by the hour. For Bob Dancer maybe $50/hr, Frank Kneeland $40, Jim Madeley $8. All other players lose money by the hour. So advantage players increase their win by staying, others decrease their losses by leaving. And, it has nothing to do with streaks, the temperature of the table, hunches, special plays, NADA.
I've a question. VP is still a negative expectation game, yes? Even if one hunts down the machine with the best pay tables and plays each hand to its best probibility,isn't it still a negative expectation game? So the above named individuals are actually losing more slowly, not actually earning steadily per hour, yes? It's all academic to me, as a craps shooter, VP bores me like an auger. To each their own, but I'm going to roll them bones.Quote: dmI CAN ANSWER THAT! An advantage player earns money by the hour. For Bob Dancer maybe $50/hr, Frank Kneeland $40, Jim Madeley $8. All other players lose money by the hour. So advantage players increase their win by staying, others decrease their losses by leaving. And, it has nothing to do with streaks, the temperature of the table, hunches, special plays, NADA.
(1) Yes, it is an negative expectation game on everything but the very best paytables (which can range up to 100.76% payback). (2) It is still possible to make a profit with cashback points from casinos, multipliers, free gifts, and drawings. (3) It is incredibly hard to do this. Even Dancer says without his drawing winnings, he would be a net loser every year. Like everything else in advantage gambling, you have to treat it as a business and not as "fun."Quote: PeteMI've a question. VP is still a negative expectation game, yes? Even if one hunts down the machine with the best pay tables and plays each hand to its best probibility,isn't it still a negative expectation game? So the above named individuals are actually losing more slowly, not actually earning steadily per hour, yes? It's all academic to me, as a craps shooter, VP bores me like an auger. To each their own, but I'm going to roll them bones.
Well, to hell with that. Maybe that's why I never see anybody smiling in front of a VP console. I want to have fun and "have a good bet"(thanks, Wiz). PL, max odds, 12 each on the 6 and 8. The dice are out!Quote: teddys(1) Yes, it is an negative expectation game on everything but the very best paytables (which can range up to 100.76% payback). (2) It is still possible to make a profit with cashback points from casinos, multipliers, free gifts, and drawings. (3) It is incredibly hard to do this. Even Dancer says without his drawing winnings, he would be a net loser every year. Like everything else in advantage gambling, you have to treat it as a business and not as "fun."
Quote: PeteMWell, to hell with that. Maybe that's why I never see anybody smiling in front of a VP console. I want to have fun and "have a good bet"(thanks, Wiz). PL, max odds, 12 each on the 6 and 8. The dice are out!
Well, to hell with that. I ain't going to stand at no dang craps table and donate money to their cause, no matter how much yelling, hopping around, high fiving, making sure everyone in the entire casino can hear our moans or exhiliratations, mostly moans, I am entitled to or buying. And, there are plenty of guys playing VP who are being very well reimbursed for their time, with NO BOSS, unless they happen to be married. Not at your average Indian casino, though. It's not all fun, but playing a game expertly has it's own rewards besides financial. You craps guys won't understand that, because anyone can play craps, all at exactly the same level of expertise, that being NIL. Go watch Frank play two machines at 3 times the hands/hr of the ordinary player and see how your dice control compares in mastery.
Nothing wrong with paying to have fun, as you are doing. Nothing wrong, either, with being paid to play VP.
Quote: PeteMWell, to hell with that. Maybe that's why I never see anybody smiling in front of a VP console. I want to have fun and "have a good bet"(thanks, Wiz). PL, max odds, 12 each on the 6 and 8. The dice are out!
They usually smile when they are dealt a royal for $400,000. You didn't see them because they were in the high limit room, and you were at the craps table. Even I smile for $1000, even $250 for 4 deuces. Granted, they are not smiling constantly because their success depends on concentration, totally different from your game.
Point taken. Different strokes for different folks.Quote: dmThey usually smile when they are dealt a royal for $400,000. You didn't see them because they were in the high limit room, and you were at the craps table. Even I smile for $1000, even $250 for 4 deuces. Granted, they are not smiling constantly because their success depends on concentration, totally different from your game.
Quote: PeteMPoint taken. Different strokes for different folks.
Exactly. I personally have played 3 rolls at craps. On 2 of them they took my money and I couldn't understand why. How can they
scoop up my bet when the dice show 8 on a pass line bet? The other one they paid me but I thought by mistake. These were all with match plays. I'll try to listen for you while I'm playing VP. How might I recognize your shout of glee? Here's an idea, if I hear a huge roar of "hey DM, I just completed a 40 minute roll," I'll come and look you up to shake your hand, and maybe ask for a small loan.
If I ever personally hold the dice for 40 minutes you'll find me at the top of the Eifel Tower, beating my chest, clutching a CW and flailing at police choppers.Quote: dmExactly. I personally have played 3 rolls at craps. On 2 of them they took my money and I couldn't understand why. How can they
scoop up my bet when the dice show 8 on a pass line bet? The other one they paid me but I thought by mistake. These were all with match plays. I'll try to listen for you while I'm playing VP. How might I recognize your shout of glee? Here's an idea, if I hear a huge roar of "hey DM, I just completed a 40 minute roll," I'll come and look you up to shake your hand, and maybe ask for a small loan.
If I play 8/5 Bonus Poker which has a return of 99.2% with optimal play and MORE LUCK than what the math will tell you, I also get comps and cash back.
At craps I play the passline with max odds and I also get comps including cash offers, shopping sprees, etc. I can also do this with come bets with max odds.
So let's call the "math" of the two different games a "wash."
And let's get back to the basic question: why is it OK for craps players to leave with a profit, but its not OK for video poker players?
And, today there are very few video poker games left with positive paytables.
Actually, whenever I play I always use the logic that table games play is also "one continuous session" from a financial standpoint. If I were to spend a number of days in a casino or gaming town, I would later retell my net winnings or losses over the period of time. It doesn't matter if I won a little on three days and lost huge on another day, to me it's all about the total at the end of the trip.Quote: AlanMendelsonAnd I never heard of a craps player told there was "no logic" in leaving the table with the casino's money.
However, there are two points worth mentioning.
1) Entertainment value. If you find that you are only enjoying yourself when you've won, then walking away a (temporary) winner is a good feeling and probably a good idea. Speaking for myself, I find myself being entertained just by being around the games.
2) Time value of money. Money now is worth more than the same amount of money in the future, so if you can do something productive with the money you walk away with before you play again, then walking away makes sense. If not (and I assume this is usually the case - unless you're the type that goes to the casino to try and make rent money), then the same money is basically going back to the casino - and to me, that means staying and playing is the same as walking away and coming back the next day.
If the argument is strictly that there is "no logic" in quitting because all play is "one continuous session" (entertainment value aside - these are after all, "advantage players" we're talking about), I would probably agree. But I wouldn't take this to mean that it's NOT okay to leave a video poker machine if you're ahead. It just means that if you return to the same machine the next day, it is basically as if you never left.
I would say that this happens because Table Games players tend to believe in streaks at a table (a.k.a. "hot" or "cold" tables), whereas I would think a Video Poker player is a little more objective. Just my opinion.Quote: AlanMendelsonwhy is it OK for craps players to leave with a profit, but its not OK for video poker players?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat's the difference between my Craps action and what I can also find at video poker? Actually very little.
If I play 8/5 Bonus Poker which has a return of 99.2% with optimal play and MORE LUCK than what the math will tell you, I also get comps and cash back.
At craps I play the passline with max odds and I also get comps including cash offers, shopping sprees, etc. I can also do this with come bets with max odds.
So let's call the "math" of the two different games a "wash."
And let's get back to the basic question: why is it OK for craps players to leave with a profit, but its not OK for video poker players?
And, today there are very few video poker games left with positive paytables.[/q
AP's do not normally play 99.2. Most of them play in Vegas,where there are still not very few AP games. MANY places at least have 10/7 DB. Leaving craps with a profit keeps you from giving back some of that profit. Leaving craps with a loss keeps you from increasing your loss. Leaving craps alone is even more profitable. No one said it's not OK to leave an advantage VP game with a profit, merely not to leave because, being ahead, you suddenly Rob Singred, decided, it is no longer an advantage. Yes, I spelled that as intended.
Quote: PeteMIf I ever personally hold the dice for 40 minutes you'll find me at the top of the Eifel Tower, beating my chest, clutching a CW and flailing at police choppers.
And the loan, if I'm willing to scale Eiffel?
Quote: PeteMReading back, I've a couple more comments. I never mentioned dice control, which I believe in like I believe in the tooth fairy. And while I grant that VP requires concentration,especially when playing more than one console, aren't the decisions involved per hand far fewer than Blackjack when played correctly? (Don't know, just asking). Lastly, there are NO casino games that require an advanced degree in reaction engines and orbital mechanics to play correctly. To each their own.
Fewer than BJ? Absolutely not. BJ is way easier, especially some games like one-eyed jacks, or some such, that only Shadow enjoys tackling. He likes to think, I think.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThose of us that are only there for pure profit as AP's, dont care about fun.
What a sad existence, to sit there for hours a day, to make a few dollars, and having no fun.
Quote: kpWhat a sad existence, to sit there for hours a day, to make a few dollars, and having no fun.
I'm sure the same could be said about the cashier at Costco. Your existence isn't defined by how you earn money.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThese "advantage players" say there is "no logic" in quitting when you're ahead in a session because all video poker play is just one continuous session even when you take a break for lunch or for a night, or even for six months until your next casino visit.
In craps, you bolt from the table after a hot roll or two, or when you have a substantial profit. You take the money and run... until next time. And I never heard of a craps player told there was "no logic" in leaving the table with the casino's money.
So let us see if there really is any difference at all.
Advantage VP player: Doesn't really exist unless its greater than 100 percent and if so we are talking about something like 0.17 percent or some smidgen like that. Now is that an advantage? Would you cross the street for that "advantage". If you are sitting there plugging coins thru the machine like a trained monkey, then instead of peanuts you are getting Free Booze, an occasional chat with an attractive waitress, a comped buffet and a small pittance for your shift. Should you work overtime? Or quit at the eight hour mark? Or try to sneak out early? Heck, I don't know. Depends on what else you got going for you. A retired person might just as well stay and make the five dollars an hour or whatever it works out to.
The craps player who is aware its a negative expectation game and that its all about variance sees no great advantage in staying there. He dives in, wins or loses, and he scurries away. Why should he press his luck? He is there for fun and for "the hope" ... but he is not there to get peanuts in some slow steady grind.
Life is all one session or a fifteen minute break starts a new session? I don't know. I'd like to think even a "day" is arbitrary in the casino. It starts at 4:00am and is not controlled by clocks but even if there were a clock everyone is too drunk to figure out what time it is anyway. So I guess whatever view of it is suitable to you is as good a view to take as any.
Quote: IbeatyouracesLMAO at that. We make thousands per session and have well over a 6 figure BR! I wouldn't waste my time for just a few dollars. Holecarding is "fun."
Do you make 'thousands per session' holecarding or at positive EV video poker? It seems to me, but perhaps I am wrong, that a consistent hole carder who is betting enough to consistently make 'thousands per session' would become well known to the casinos and backed off like a successful BJ card counter. But if you can make that much, then it is certainly worth it by anyone's standard of time and money. How long is a 'session' for you?
Oh, I'm sure at that point I'd be amenable.Quote: dmAnd the loan, if I'm willing to scale Eiffel?
Quote: thecesspitI'm sure the same could be said about the cashier at Costco. Your existence isn't defined by how you earn money.
Dang right. The drink service is also crappy at Costco and the eye candy must be at some casino.
