How much money am I actually losing?

I played craps at Fiesta Henderson on Sunday where they offer $3 min w/10x odds. Here was my approach. I did not bet the pass line on the come out roll. I waited until a point was established. If the point was 6 or 8 I played $3 with max odds $30 and then placed $30 on either the 6 or 8, depending on the point that was established. If neither the 6 or 8 was established as the point I placed $30 on the 6 and 8.

I know that the math says you are favored on the come out bet, but I only wanted to play the 6 or 8. The table minimum was $3 and therefore I didn't think that over the course of a couple hours of play I would actually have an expected loss of more than a couple dollars by not playing the come out roll. Is that assumption true? I understand that if the table minimum was $10 or more that the actually expected loss of actual dollars by not playing the come out bet could be fairly substantial over a couple hours of play, but with the $3 minimum I would think the actual expected dollars lost would be very minimal.

Thanks for the advice.

First, a question: this casino allows "put bets" where you can make a flat bet and odds after the point is established?

If so, here's the theory behind what you are doing:

1. you are losing the advantage that the flat bet has on the come out.
2. after the point is established you are betting maximum odds to soften or decrease the advantage that the house has.
3. betting the 6 and 8 have the lowest house edge, but the house still has an edge.

Don't get me wrong: I love craps as much as the next guy. But if you are into the "math" of the game, and the "math" of the game drives how you bet, why doesn't the "math" drive you away from craps which is a negatve expectation game and over to another game where the math would give you a better chance of winning?

Math cannot make you win at craps. It could help you win at blackjack or video poker.

1. I am not sure if the casino allows put bets, but personally I am unclear on the payouts for put bets (and this forum has exhausted the topic of put bets and I am still unclear on the payout on a put bet).

2. I don't gamble enough to be efficient at counting cards to put the odds of blackjack in my favor, but I do know basic strategy and play that way when I do play blackjack.

3. As for video poker I do play and I understand the math behind it so I do pretty well there.

4. I just really want to know how much money I am sacrificing on avoiding the come out roll on a $3 minimum table. I don't think that it can be more than a couple dollars, but I am not sure.

Quote: SONBP2

1. I am not sure if the casino allows put bets, but personally I am unclear on the payouts for put bets (and this forum has exhausted the topic of put bets and I am still unclear on the payout on a put bet).

"Put" bets are identical to "Come" bets with the exception that they are put directly on the number, without being in the Come box first.

A casino that offers 10x odds, should allow a $3 + $30 put bet, and it would pay exactly the same as a $3 + $30 come bet.
I.E. It pays $3 + $36.

>I played craps at Fiesta Henderson on Sunday where they offer $3 min w/10x odds. Here was my approach.
>I did not bet the pass line on the come out roll.
Its okay but it means you can't win.
>I waited until a point was established.
Its your time, but if you are not playing, you can't win.
>If the point was 6 or 8 I played $3 with max odds $30
STOP RIGHT THERE.
You say you "played"... that means you made a bet.
WHAT BET DID YOU MAKE????
Its too late for you to make a pass line bet. So if you put your 3.00 on the pass line and 30 in odds behind it, that is a PUT Bet and the crew will usually intone something like "placing the point" if there are no odds behind it.
You are going to win if a 6 rolls and lose if a seven rolls. In this case you are wasting your time and your money by being out of the game until a point is established.
Its not much money so do it if you want to do it but don't think its sensible.

I did put the $3 on the pass line and $30 in odds after the point was established. I did not ask that it be treated as a put bet, the dealers did not say anything, and I was paid as if I had bet the pass line from the time of the come out roll. As far as I know, you can play as pass line bet at anytime. The casino does not care as the casino is now favored to win. You cannot place a don't pass bet after the come out roll as that would put the advantage in the player's favor.

I missed the part about you putting the money on the point. But it's irrelvant. It's still the same thing.

>> I did put the $3 on the pass line and $30 in odds after the point was established.
It is perfectly acceptable to increse or establish a pass line bet at any time.

>> I did not ask that it be treated as a put bet, the dealers did not say anything,
You didn't need to, since, just like the put that is in the numbers box being the same as a come bet, this "put" is the same as a pass bet.

>> I was paid as if I had bet the pass line from the time of the come out roll.
Yep. It's paid the same.

>> As far as I know, you can play as pass line bet at anytime. The casino does not care as the casino is now favored to win. You cannot place a don't pass bet after the come out roll as that would put the advantage in the player's favor.
Abso-friggin-lutely.

Similarly, you cannot remove or reduce a pass line bet - even if it was established late (a put bet). However, you can remove or reduce a don't bet anytime you like.

Actual loss? That's easy to determine. Just count your money before entering the casino and again after leaving. The difference is your actual loss (or gain). You may wish to adjust for any other expenditures while in the casino, but I tend to lump it all together.

If the point is 6 or 8 and you put the pass line + $30 odds, you get paid $39 for a profit of $6. This has an EV of 39*5/11 - 33*6/11 or $.2727 per resolved bet.

A place bet for $30 pays you $35 for a win. This has an EV of 35*5/11 - 30*6/11 = $.45454 per resolved bet.

Put is better than place on the 6 / 8 if the odds are greater than 5 times.

Doesn't seem like much but at $.183 per resolved bet over 20 pass lines bets, that's about $3.60/hour or $15 over four hours. Of course $15 is less than one of your bets, so in the grand scheme of a betting session, doesn't really matter.

It would be foolish to place a pass line bet with odds after the point is established if your odds was less than 5x for the 6/8.

I think the info you are looking for is this:

By avoiding the come out roll, you are not losing about 1.4% of your $3 passline bet that you are not making.

Now, that makes absolutely no sense, but that is what I think would be the "math answer" to your question. I say that because the passline bet has a 1.4% house edge.

However, by not making it, you are avoiding the possible loss of $3.

What you are risking is not making $3 by not making the $3 passline bet that has a 1.4% house edge.

Do you feel like we are going around in circles? LOL

By the way, the reason why the crew does not question your "late bet" on the passline with odds, is that the casino is more likely to win that "late bet" on the passline wih odds, which is why "put bets" are also welcome. But just try to place a "dont bet" after the point is established because no casino will allow it because the casino is more likely to lose a don't bet on the point after the point is established.

Quote: AlanMendelson

By the way, the reason why the crew does not question your "late bet" on the passline with odds, is that the casino is more likely to win that "late bet" on the passline wih odds, which is why "put bets" are also welcome. But just try to place a "dont bet" after the point is established because no casino will allow it because the casino is more likely to lose a don't bet on the point after the point is established.

Its funny you say that b/c the guy playing next to me was watching how I was betting. After about 5 or 6 rolls, suddenly after the come out roll he throws his bet down on the don't pass. The dealer immediately told him he could not play that bet. The guy looked at me and then when back to hopping the 9.

At $3, it won't be much more than $0.25 each come out roll you are losing.

It might have been mentioned above, but this only works with a decent amount of odds. I think you are turning your come bet into about a 11% house advantage by placing it after the come out roll. You need a lot of odds to bring that down below the house edge of the place bet on the 6/8. So in the case of 3/4/5 craps, I think you would be better off just doing the place bet and forgetting about the line.

I assume we could just weigh the house edge of Put bets vs. Pass Line bets (flats only) - per bet resolved.

33.33% on the 4 and 10
20.00% on the 5 and 9
9.09% on the 6 and 8
(personally, I calculate a weighted average house edge of 18.79%)

vs.

1.41% on the Pass Line

Multiply your $3 flat times the number of come outs multiplied by the difference in house edges, and you should have your theoretical answer.

However, since you only wanted to play the 6 and 8, I assume boymimbo's calculations are more relevant to you.

What you are "sacrificing" is the win that would occur when a seven or an eleven is rolled on the come out roll. You would also avoid losing when rolling a 2, 3 or 12. The 11 would result in a win at the same frequency as a 3 so they would cancel each other out. A seven would occur 6/36 or 1/6 of the time. Either a 2 or a 12 would occur about 2/36 or 1/18 of the time (1/36 for each one). After doing the math (assuming a line bet of $3) you would end up with a net gain (that you would be sacrificing) of $0.33 per come out roll (regardless of the number rolled).

However, since you were doing this to avoid having to play any points other than 6 or 8, the $0.33 gain can be offset by the avoidance of the loss that would occur from losing the other points (4, 5, 9, 10) more often than winning them. Mathematically, if the point were 4 or 10, you could expect to lose 2/3 (66.67%) of the time. If the point were 5 or 9 you could expect to lose 60% of the time. If we assume the line bet to be $3 (the odds bet is irrelevant because it has no house edge), the math works out to show that you would have a net loss of $2 per occurance on the 4 and 10 points, and a net loss of $1.80 per occurance on the 5 and 9 points.

You could expect a come out roll to be a 4 or a 10 6/36 of the time and a 5 or a 9 8/36 of the time. So, on a come out roll of a 4 or a 10 the "sacrificed" $0.33 gain would be offset by a $0.33 loss (6/36 x $2), leaving you even. On a come out roll of a 5 or a 9 the "sacrificed" gain would be offset by a $0.40 loss (8/36 x $1.80) leaving you up $0.07 each time.

In summary, by not betting the passline initially, you would sacrifice $0.33 per every come out roll except those that would establish a point of 4, 5, 9, or 10. On those rolls you would be even on the 4 and 10 and up $0.07 on the 5 and 9. That nets out to be about $0.22 for every come out roll including the 4, 5, 9 and 10.

Many people can't really understand what is going on and are simply following a fellow player or bets they see put down earlier without quite knowing what is proper. I'm sure this is part of the "house edge" for many games. When some bored dealers standing at an empty table called out to passersby I once replied that I had "never figured out where the tiny little goal posts were on the craps layout". They seemed to enjoy the laugh and the sports analogy. Most people know Blackjack is related to the sum 21. Perhaps people know Baccarat is related to the number 9. Its not just alcohol, but utter unfamiliarity with the games that helps the house margin.

Here's what I tried doing once... I placed $6 6 and 8. If the shooter hit one, I would take that number down. If he hit the other, I would take that one down also, leaving no more action, and not putting up any more action until the next shooter. This would always ensure 2 decisions per shooter. This would yield an average loss of $2 per 11 shooters. Multiply that by 5, placing for $30, yields $10 of loss per 11 shooters. If you put the 6 or 8 for $3 with $30 odds, you lower the house edge from 1.51% for place bets to 0.8%. So go ahead and do that.

What I don't recommend is placing all the numbers for $3. So you have the option of taking $27 across, or $15 across. While the monetary risk is less, the house edge is higher, so on average over the course of time, your loss is pretty much the same either way, but you have a chance to win more doing $27 across. I'd rather do that.