Wong and dice control
Though nothing beats the Hollywood actress in the early fifties who when the stickman started sliding them only halfway to her, took one out and said "if you want to look, then look but give me the dice fast" and finished her roll that way. Wouldn't be a big deal nowadays but in those days it was.
I like it when a dice crew is a bit "alive" and banter goes back and forth as well as just chips, but the jokes have to funny.
Click on image for larger version.
This is the lovely Angela. Two weeks ago she assisted me in the making of some gambling instruction videos that I will share with the world once they are edited. Our own PaiGowDan was the dealer (his hands seen in the picture). He was quite the gentleman and did not shortstick her, despite me dropping a hint about it. Later in the video we explain what the term means.
Hell, dolled up in a clingy black cocktail dress with her "girls" barely covered, rolling the dice while leaning W-A-Y over the table ... that would distract ALL the (presumably male) crew, giving her confederate the opportunity to slide.
Yeah, we men are so easy ...
Quote: MrVYeah, we men are so easy ...
She just needs to bat her eyes at me and I'll go all in with anything.
Quote: Wizard
Wow, lovely Angela could have definitely added a thrill, so Paigowdan's failure to follow instructions will mean the value of your video is greatly diminished. Nonetheless can't wait to see it, no sneak peek possible? *whine*
Quote: odiousgambitWow, lovely Angela could have definitely added a thrill, so Paigowdan's failure to follow instructions will mean the value of your video is greatly diminished. Nonetheless can't wait to see it, no sneak peek possible? *whine*
Sorry, we kept things pretty clean. However, here is another picture to tie (or is it tide?) you over.
Click on image for larger version.
So, is the dice toss shown in the photo one that is acceptable to the casino? I have heard it claimed that the dice are not to be thrown above eye level (or is it head level?), since a very high toss is sometimes viewed as a way to distract the dealers' eyes from the table/chips. These two dice certainly look to be higher than that. Dan seems to have been in a perfect position to make the call on this one. Or maybe he wasn't looking at the table, chips, or dice anyway, in this instance. ;-)Quote: WizardThis is the lovely Angela. Two weeks ago she assisted me in the making of some gambling instruction videos ....
Quote: RichardMunchkinHello all. I just wanted to add a couple things. For those who haven't heard the show you can get it in itunes or at my blog at richardmunchkin.com. I wrote a more detailed blog entry last week about my thoughts on dice control but in a nutshell I know a long time professional gambler who recorded 50,000 rolls on his own regulation table. This is someone who makes a living gambling, not selling books. There is no question in his mind that he could influence the dice. BUT - he found very few tables in Las Vegas that were conducive to controlled throwing, and the few he did find he either was barred quickly or got immediate heat that prevented him from winning any money. I believe dice control is possible, but don't believe you can make any money at it. It is also very easy to fool yourself into thinking you have an edge when you don't.
Welcome,sir. It is a pleasure to have a member of the Blackjack Hall of Fame on this forum.
Quote: 1BBWelcome,sir. It is a pleasure to have a member of the Blackjack Hall of Fame on this forum.
Indeed. It is an honor to have you on the board, Richard. I hope to read more of your posts.
I do not mention this to embarrass Wong, but only to further what I have been saying for years, that when it comes to dice control, as far as I can see, the emperor has no clothes.
Quote: Bryce Carlson
Hi Michael,
Well, yes, some of what Wong said is open to interpretation, but I think
he went about as far as he could without bluntly stating,
"Unfortunately, I now know based on recent research that the whole
thing is a fantasy, and I regret originally embracing the supposed reality
of AP casino craps without hard evidence." However true that statement
might be, Wong would never explicitly make it -- nor would anyone realistically
expect him to.
As for his statements regarding winners at AP craps, he mentioned that
he knew of two big winners, one of whom had won about $1.5 million,
and the other had won several hundred thousand, but both of whom had
lost it all back and now believed they had just been lucky in the
beginning and never actually had an edge at the game. Then, when
pressed by Dancer for a winner who still claims an edge at craps, he
mentioned the "Mad Professor" as someone who still claims to be able
to beat the game. However, the problem with the Mad Professor is
that, while a gifted writer of many enjoyable essays on craps, he
freely admits to not keeping detailed records of his results. As far
as I'm concerned, when someone claims to be a winner at gambling but
admits to not keeping detailed records he has no credibility, at all.
Gamblers are notorious for selective memory when it comes to winning
and losing. The same thing is true for all the other so-called craps
"pros" selling seminars and books on craps: they claim to be winners
but when pressed admit to not keeping detailed records. As for Golden
Touch Craps, the gist of what Wong said is that GTC puts on
entertaining hands-on seminars that teach the fundamentals of the
game, and they also offer a money-back guarantee to anyone who feels
he didn't get his money's worth. That may all be true, but it does
not mean GTC's instructors or students can beat the game, and, in
fact, there is no hard evidence that any of them can.
So, I view the interview as essentially a re-evaluation by Wong of his
original belief that casino craps can be legitimately beaten with
skillful play. And in the post-interview discussion between Dancer
and his co-host their takeaway from Wong was that if you want to beat
the casinos with skillful play craps is not the game to play.
Bryce Carlson
We now have The Wizard, Dorothy, and a Munchkin on the board.Quote: WizardIndeed. It is an honor to have you on the board, Richard. I hope to read more of your posts.
I should expect the Tin Man, Lion, and Scarecrow to join very soon.
Quote: WizardQuote: MrVYeah, we men are so easy ...
She just needs to bat her eyes at me and I'll go all in with anything.
I thought you were a nerd? Not bad. Something about her reminds me of Jennifer Tilly, maybe her stack.
the Wong interview, the next week? If it was I didn't see it. Go to
KLAV web site
and listen, its almost as long as Wong's. Its the last one posted at the top,
#40.
Quote: EvenBobWas it mentioned here that the Wiz did a follow up interview
Wizard did 3 shows, Feb 3, May 19th, Oct 27th. Have heard 2 othem so far.
He is pretty good on radio. The sound engineer sucks on these shows, either that or the MP3 recordings arent faithful.
Quote:[T]he seven-to-rolls ratio, while somewhat intuitive and useful for calculating player edge, is not the best possible measure of dice setting skill. This results fromthe fact that sevens can be both 'good' and 'bad', meaning that they occur when we both achieve and fail z-axis control. This weakens the statistical utility of SRR for determining player dice setting skill.
http://www.smartcraps.com/SmartCraps_theory.pdf
I realized this means that in theory you could test for effectiveness with far fewer rolls. In fact, I just checked out the home page of the domain where the article is posted, and that's exactly what they promise: Software to test for efficacy with hundreds rather than thousands of rolls. Anyway, I don't think the Wiz ever had a chance to check it out. But if the article is good (rather than smoke and mirrors, I don't know), then this could help our community do the first public, rigorous test of dice control efficacy.
Also on the topic of dice setting, in the Wizard's article on the subject, he mentions an $1800 bet he made with "a well known gambling writer" on a Wong experiment. I think that would have been me, except that I'm not well-known, and I don't remember the stakes being so high. Maybe there was another bettor. I do remember that I bet on Wong and won the bet. :) I remember just thinking, how can I bet against Stanford Wong?
Quote: MichaelBluejayI remember just thinking, how can I bet against Stanford Wong?
You can't go wrong with Wong.
Would you agree that a test under "perfect" conditions would be a logical place to start? Without chips on the table, heat from the pit, noise, smoke and lights, an expert D.I. should be able to produce results at the top of their skill set. If they fail to produce significant differences here, there would be no point in continuing. How many rolls would be needed, assuming we tracked the results of each die individually?
Quote: RichardMunchkinHello all. I just wanted to add a couple things. For those who haven't heard the show you can get it in itunes or at my blog at richardmunchkin.com. I wrote a more detailed blog entry last week about my thoughts on dice control but in a nutshell I know a long time professional gambler who recorded 50,000 rolls on his own regulation table. This is someone who makes a living gambling, not selling books. There is no question in his mind that he could influence the dice. BUT - he found very few tables in Las Vegas that were conducive to controlled throwing, and the few he did find he either was barred quickly or got immediate heat that prevented him from winning any money. I believe dice control is possible, but don't believe you can make any money at it. It is also very easy to fool yourself into thinking you have an edge when you don't.
Wise words. Welcome.
I can say that my $2,000 bet was against Bob Dancer, because it was brought up on his radio show last week. I may have had a smaller wager with MB as well; I don't recall.
Quote: WizardI can say that my $2,000 bet was against Bob Dancer, because it was brought up on his radio show last week.
Well, you did well according to your maxim "It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet." I think you had a good bet there, even if these guys could control the dice somewhat . Havent listened to the program yet.
One night I was opening up a new table as a dealer. We were waiting around for 20 mins for our box person because the first two sets were thrown out cause they didn't pass the test. The casino wants to have fair dice as well-just as likely to hit any number-because otherwise they could be fined. They already have an edge built into the bets, there's no reason to have unfair dice. I think with this much scrutiny, you can be assured the specific dice used won't change your influence.
Its like all those Beat The Dealer readers in the sixties who practiced in their basements and then lugged their piggy banks to Las Vegas and did terribly amidst the real world's sights, sounds and distractions.
Quote: FleaStiffI agree that some laboratory condition MIGHT prove the existence of some dice control ability to a slight degree but not to any degree that would survive even a rather lax casino environment.
Its like all those Beat The Dealer readers in the sixties who practiced in their basements and then lugged their piggy banks to Las Vegas and did terribly amidst the real world's sights, sounds and distractions.
More on Dice Control: Is Dice Control Real?
Gaming writer Stanford Wong appeared on a podcast/radio show recently where he was questioned about the legitimacy of dice control. Mr. Wong wrote a dice control book a few years ago. During the interview Mr. Wong basically said he believed dice control was possible but difficult...read more
Quote: MrCasinoGamesGaming writer Stanford Wong appeared on a podcast/radio show recently where he was questioned about the legitimacy of dice control. Mr. Wong wrote a dice control book a few years ago. During the interview Mr. Wong basically said he believed dice control was possible but difficult
Why, I do declare I believe the article is referring to one of Dancer's broadcasts!
Your two links link to the same thing it seems, btw.
I think it's possible, but extremely difficult. I don't have specific numbers, and I could be wrong, but since I've been trying it, I think I'm down less than probability would indicate. I've been playing probably an average of once a week for the last two years. I'd say that's enough to be pretty close to the mathematical loss. I think I've lost half of what I should've.
Quote: teddysWe now have The Wizard, Dorothy, and a Munchkin on the board.
I should expect the Tin Man, Lion, and Scarecrow to join very soon.
Damn, now I wish I would have picked a Wizard of Oz themed screen name when I joined. Too late now.
Glad someone resurrected this necropost, as I'm interested in dice influencing and hadn't seen it yet, or heard about this appearance by Wong on the show.. After learning how to play craps 2 years ago (has it been that long?) by reading the Wiz's page, I read the parts on theoretical advantages with dice control, and the Wong challenge. I figured, "can't hurt to try, right?" and bought Scoblete's book as well as Wong On Dice. I also bought 2 sleeves of brand new casino dice with the intent to start practicing.
A couple years later and I never really practiced after reading the books. My beliefs probably align most closely with Dan's expressed earlier in this thread...influencing is possible for a very few gifted and dedicated people. I have never been one with excessively good hand/eye coordination, so I'm pretty sure that even if it IS possible, it isn't for me.
Instead I've devoted those spare cycles to blackjack, counting cards, and other AP. After reading this thread, I'm glad I did so. Good times!
And even then, you'd probably only have a 1% edge over the house...nothing to write home about...
Quote: TIMSPEEDLike others have said...I think it IS possible to influence the dice...but the amount of people in the world who can have a measurable effect, are probably as many as can bowl a 900 series...
Or throw a 9-dart 501 game, which is probably more apropos of dice tossing. The level of precision required is ridiculously high, so even if it's possible, it's not a practical concern for a casino. Unlike card counting, which basically anyone can learn to do, the number of people who can exhibit that skill is low. That means all a casino has to do is identify them and say "Thanks for playing but we don't want your dice action anymore. Here's a comfy chair at our blackjack tables."
And identification wouldn't be difficult. One can camouflage card counting, but there's no way to camouflage a precise, repetitive motion. And the betting patterns would be a dead giveaway: presumably the skilled shooter wouldn't bet much when others have the dice and would only bet big when they're shooting. Otherwise they'd dilute their supposed edge. That's very different from how most players bet.
Quote: MathExtremistThat means all a casino has to do is identify them and say "Thanks for playing but we don't want your dice action anymore. Here's a comfy chair at our blackjack tables."
I agree with the rest of your post, but this part would be ill-advised on the casino's part, as I would guess almost all controlled shooters are experienced advantage players at other games, so inviting them to play blackjack may not be the best idea :)
Sorry, not really relevant, but I felt it bore noting.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI agree with the rest of your post, but this part would be ill-advised on the casino's part, as I would guess almost all controlled shooters are experienced advantage players at other games, so inviting them to play blackjack may not be the best idea :)
Interestingly, I'd guess exactly the opposite. Why spend the time learning to pitch dice precisely when you can actually AP with far less effort? Good APs are about ROI, and the ROI from dice setting can't be as high as the ROI from counting or holecarding. The +EV from precision dice tossing, if it exists at all, is only there when you're shooting. What percentage of the time is that? It's nowhere close to 100%. Contrast that with basically every other +EV opportunity in a casino. So suppose you hold the dice for 25% of the time, which is a lot, and that you never make any other bets. That's about 25 rolls/hour or about 7.4 line bets. Now suppose your EV is +5%, which is also a lot. That yields +0.37 bets/hour, or $37/hour on $100 line bets. Now consider that you can make well over $100/hour with $100 bets on basically every other AP opportunity out there. Why would you bother with dice setting?
Point is, I'd think that someone who is good enough to influence the dice has learned that skill because they *can't* achieve +EV elsewhere.
Quote: MathExtremistInterestingly, I'd guess exactly the opposite. Why spend the time learning to pitch dice precisely when you can actually AP with far less effort? Good APs are about ROI, and the ROI from dice setting can't be as high as the ROI from counting or holecarding. The +EV from precision dice tossing, if it exists at all, is only there when you're shooting. What percentage of the time is that? It's nowhere close to 100%. Contrast that with basically every other +EV opportunity in a casino.
Point is, I'd think that someone who is good enough to influence the dice has learned that skill because they *can't* achieve +EV elsewhere.
Good point. I guess I say it because of the well-known DI proponents (Wong, Scoblete are the ones that come to my mind), who are also well-known to be APs at other games. Although now that I think about it, I don't know that much about Scoblete other than the fact that he is a prolific writer. No clue if he was ever a high-stakes blackjack counter like Wong.
Anyway, it's academic since the number of successful DIs, if they do exist, is undoubtedly small and probably anonymous. But I see your point.
Several times I have been in Wynn and Encore and seen players on basically a private table, so that they did indeed shoot 100% of the time. I don't know that they really had the table reserved, but the limits were set high enough that no one else was playing. In one case, the opposite end of the table was available to enter for a $500 minimum bet, but I think that the player's end was posted as some much-higher minimum -- "You can play for $500 and up, but don't crowd our whale." Of course, if the casino doesn't want your action at dice, it would be very hard to arrange a private table.Quote: MathExtremistThe +EV from precision dice tossing, if it exists at all, is only there when you're shooting. What percentage of the time is that? It's nowhere close to 100%.
Quote: MathExtremistThe +EV from precision dice tossing, if it exists at all, is only there when you're shooting. What percentage of the time is that? It's nowhere close to 100%. Contrast that with basically every other +EV opportunity in a casino. So suppose you hold the dice for 25% of the time, which is a lot, and that you never make any other bets. That's about 25 rolls/hour or about 7.4 line bets. Now suppose your EV is +5%, which is also a lot. That yields +0.37 bets/hour, or $37/hour on $100 line bets. Now consider that you can make well over $100/hour with $100 bets on basically every other AP opportunity out there. Why would you bother with dice setting?
This is the essence of the issue.
I set dice and use a controlled throw. I have no basement setup. There are days I am convinced I have substantial control; other days not. It is a matter of dice-setting combined with a controlled delivery/release, combined with proper space at the other end of the table in which to land the dice consistently.
Yet my desire to be socially acceptable at the dice table means I end up placing bets on random throwers 80 - 90% of the time. If there are 10 folks at the table, I might see one other player who exhibits any understanding and technique. Do I stand idly by and only bet on that guy and myself? Of course not, I came to play! It becomes self-defeating.
Quote: MathExtremistThe +EV from precision dice tossing, if it exists at all, is only there when you're shooting. What percentage of the time is that? It's nowhere close to 100%.
Well, in Reno, at almost all the crap tables, you can play alone for quite some time (in fact, ONLY friday/saturday nights are they really crowded, otherwise, dead)
Quote: AlanMendelsonGood question, and those who are the "sellers" of the dice influencing systems do have "sets" for throwing more 7s.
One of the strategies of DI is this:
Practice your particular set and see what the results are. For example, you use a cross-6s set which is supposed to result in a lot of outside numbers. But for you, if keeps giving 7s. Well then, bet comes and bet the don't. Go with the flow.
On Wall Street they say the trend is your friend.
One time I rolled 6 come out 7s in a row and I was trying to roll outside numbers. When I finally rolled a number for a point (it was a 6) the dealer asked me for my usual bets for the place numbers, and for odds. I looked at him and said "Im just rolling 7s today. No other bets." And sure enough on the next roll... 7 out.
Given the choice of betting on a shooter who is attempting to influence the dice vs a shooter who is a random thrower, I'd rather bet on the guy trying to influence. It's probably not logical, but I'd rather bet on someone who is "trying" to win rather than someone who may not "care" about what he's doing.
Maybe that comes from my business experience. I'd rather work with someone who "cares" about what he's doing, than work with someone who just does his job without caring about what he's doing. Does that make any sense to anybody?
That makes perfect sense. I've taken time to practice dice control at home. However, I've just bought some used dice and threw into my couch. I think it's silly to pay thousands for a seminar and buy or make a throwing station. That's really putting a lot of money into it. But when I'm at the casino, and I see this old guy who just flings them down the table and doesn't even bother to look at what the number is, just looks down at his chips, it almost pisses me off. It's like you view craps as the same as pressing a button on a slot machine.
Of course a Contrarian can still say Trend be Damned, those little white cubes ain't got no eyes or ears or memory cells.
Either way, the friendly staff will enjoy your tips.
The only ones offering seminars are these Dice Control/Dice Influence types and it would take one heck of an "edge" to overcome the house advantage and really make some money. Persi Diaconis of Stanford had a set of professionally milled dice made and the "edge" that pair of professionally milled crooked dice gave him was less than the error rate his graduate students made in recording the events. So in order to get any real money out of Dice Control: get really, really good at it but somehow avoid it being noticed by people whose jobs and pensions depend on their noticing it or sell seminars!
In most cases you would find them to be completely indistinguishable from a random result.
There has been no convincing test or study to show the veracity of the claims of the advocates of dice control.
Quote: WongBoThere has been no convincing test or study to show the veracity of the claims of the advocates of dice control.
Nobody makes more ridiculous and unsupportable dice control claims than does Frank Scoblete.
Bullshit Claims By Scoblete
He has to do SOMETHING to lure clueless and desperate sheep into his shearing shed.
Hey Scoblete, Pics or IT DIDNT HAPPEN!
Quote: ewjones080That's really putting a lot of money into it. But when I'm at the casino, and I see this old guy who just flings them down the table and doesn't even bother to look at what the number is, just looks down at his chips, it almost pisses me off. It's like you view craps as the same as pressing a button on a slot machine.
Erm, unless you can control the dice... it is.
95% concede they cannot control the dice; the other 5% are just plain crazy.
I'm not a very smart man, but that's how I see it.....
Quote: thecesspitErm, unless you can control the dice... it is.
I don't think so. Pressing a button on a slot machine is completely mindless. Whether real or shooter delusion, to feel that you are truly determining the number is a lot more fun.
on the dice to have an advantage.... that is because there are very few people in the country that have
put in the time to get good at it.
2000-3000 rolls will give you a good idea if you have any advantage. its just math, if you are honest in
your record keeping the math wil not lie.
dicesitter
Not true at all. Think of the grand splendor of that recent retirement party. The luxury of that penthouse suite, the quality and quantity of all that booze, the beauty of all those half-naked women. Broads like that don't come cheap and to have had dozens and dozens of them there, well just add it up yourself! Why just the coffee and gold flakes that was served at the entranceway by those naked young girls is mind boggling. I don't know which dinner you selected but meals like that cost an average of three grand each. And think of the prizes that each attendee received as he left the party, the key to a brand new Bentley convertible, the personalized license plate in your own name, those cars cost a fortune! Of course Dice Control works.... just look at the evidence!Quote: WongBoThere has been no convincing test or study to show the veracity of the claims of the advocates of dice control.
Er, uh... just for those who might be a little bit slow on the uptake or think they might have somehow been inadvertently left off the guest list for some dice controller's recent retirement party, ... there was no such multi-million dollar extravaganza! There were no naked young girls serving arriving guests their gold flaked coffee. There were no sumptuous dinners amidst splendor and half naked ladies. There were no Bentley convertibles given to each of the guests. There was no Dice Controller who was ushered into the room on a bed of currency borne by recently bankrupted casino executives being whipped into submission by the author of an $18.95 pamphlet who gives seminars in function rooms that compete with Alcoholics Anonymous.Quote: FleaStiffNot true at all. Think of the grand splendor of that recent retirement party.
Of course Dice Control works.... just look at the evidence!
Dice controllers can not show the printouts of the dice throws, nor can they show the multi-million dollar printouts from the catering companies and automobile dealerships that reflect the successful dice control lifestyle. Nor are there any casino executives being whipped while being chained up in slavery to dice control authors.
So no matter how enamored you are of the term "Wong" ... just look at the evidence!! It ain't there. If dice control existed, the evidence would be there! Its like "the wee people". An Irishman can prove their existence by either showing you the tiny little Leprechaun or by showing you the pot of gold, but if he can't show you either of them, then Leprechauns don't exist.
