Humble Newbie, simple craps question
October 18th, 2011 at 8:50:34 PM
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Hello all, been reading around the forum, and clearly, the consensus is that there is no +ev strategy for craps. No surprise there. However, as I think about this, I wonder why simple hedging can't bring you into +ev, for example... $25 on the Don't, Lay the 4 for $50, $2 Yo, $5 hard 4. After the come out pull down the Lay bet and the hard 4, max odds on the Don't, and insure the even points and odds with a bet on the corresponding hard way.
At face value it seems that you don't have much to lose on the come out, other than the easy 4, and after the point is out, you're max odds minimize the house edge, and with the hard way on the even points covered, isnt a 7 significantly more likely than the easy way on even points or the odd point? Is my mistake in how this pays out? Could someone calculate the ev of this strategy? Not pretending that you can beat this game, obviously, just trying to wrap my head around it, TY in advance for any response.
At face value it seems that you don't have much to lose on the come out, other than the easy 4, and after the point is out, you're max odds minimize the house edge, and with the hard way on the even points covered, isnt a 7 significantly more likely than the easy way on even points or the odd point? Is my mistake in how this pays out? Could someone calculate the ev of this strategy? Not pretending that you can beat this game, obviously, just trying to wrap my head around it, TY in advance for any response.
October 18th, 2011 at 9:09:14 PM
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EVERY bet on the craps table has an advantage for the house. The more you bet, the more they will win.
If you want the best chance of losing the least amount of money, make the smallest possible bet on the bet with the lowest house edge. That would, in fact, be the dont pass or dont come, but that house edge is only slightly less than the pass or come.
Because craps is a negative expectation game, no betting scheme will make you win. Period.
To respond to your betting scheme, you start the hand this way:
"$25 on the Don't, Lay the 4 for $50, $2 Yo, $5 hard 4. After the come out pull down the Lay bet and the hard 4, max odds on the Don't, and insure the even points and odds with a bet on the corresponding hard way."
OK. First roll is a 8. You lost your $2 yo. You remove your "No-4" and your "hard-4." You bet your full odds on dont pass line. You make your hard-8 bet.
Next roll is 5/3, soft 8. You lost your dont pass with odds, you lost your hard-8 bet.
edited: oops. I made a mistake in my original post. I wrote " The more you bet, the more you will win." I should have written: The more you bet, the more they will win.
If you want the best chance of losing the least amount of money, make the smallest possible bet on the bet with the lowest house edge. That would, in fact, be the dont pass or dont come, but that house edge is only slightly less than the pass or come.
Because craps is a negative expectation game, no betting scheme will make you win. Period.
To respond to your betting scheme, you start the hand this way:
"$25 on the Don't, Lay the 4 for $50, $2 Yo, $5 hard 4. After the come out pull down the Lay bet and the hard 4, max odds on the Don't, and insure the even points and odds with a bet on the corresponding hard way."
OK. First roll is a 8. You lost your $2 yo. You remove your "No-4" and your "hard-4." You bet your full odds on dont pass line. You make your hard-8 bet.
Next roll is 5/3, soft 8. You lost your dont pass with odds, you lost your hard-8 bet.
edited: oops. I made a mistake in my original post. I wrote " The more you bet, the more you will win." I should have written: The more you bet, the more they will win.
October 18th, 2011 at 9:23:09 PM
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I'm too lazy to go through all of the calculations to evaluate your strategy. Similar ideas have been discussed here before, with all of the calculations, so maybe someone will be willing to do it for you.
The simple answer is that it is not possible to combine negative EV wagers in any manner to obtain an overall positive EV. You can certainly combine them in ways that will reduce the variance of the outcome, which is a key element of hedging. The extreme versions of this will guarantee that you never lose a lot on any play but also guarantee you can never win anything at all. Example: Bet $30 on pass, $30 on don't pass, and $1 on double sixes (just for the come out roll). You have $60 or $61 in action at all times with a maximum loss of $1 per resolution. The best that can happen, though, is that you break even, and that doesn't happen very often. Result: a small, negative EV with a very small variance.
The simple answer is that it is not possible to combine negative EV wagers in any manner to obtain an overall positive EV. You can certainly combine them in ways that will reduce the variance of the outcome, which is a key element of hedging. The extreme versions of this will guarantee that you never lose a lot on any play but also guarantee you can never win anything at all. Example: Bet $30 on pass, $30 on don't pass, and $1 on double sixes (just for the come out roll). You have $60 or $61 in action at all times with a maximum loss of $1 per resolution. The best that can happen, though, is that you break even, and that doesn't happen very often. Result: a small, negative EV with a very small variance.
October 18th, 2011 at 9:24:39 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonThe more you bet, the more you will win.
Only if you own the casino.
October 18th, 2011 at 10:42:45 PM
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I think this question was asked fairly recently on another thread.
It would be simpler to hop the 7's and go with your yo if you must - If you are are adamant about this strategy then you might as well lay the 10 too, and you can lay them for 40 each. Losing the 4 or 10 can be a bankroll killer so I think I would avoid it. Lots of easy 4,6,8 & 10's out there and I bet over time the hardways would eat into you pretty bad.
The only way I have hedged on the don't is just a hedge against missing a hot roll. You get past the come out at 15 or 25 on the DP, lay 6x odds and go across at 26/27 or 52/54. I can grind okay like this when folks cant make points. I have no idea how bad this play is - X% wise, probably sucks (mine). Sometimes I leave the place bets up a bit, sometimes I take em down when they hit. I have had okay results in live play but have seen very mixed results playing this way on a craps simulator. If the shooter makes the point I might switch to the pass line, just depends. I like the action of the table so it can be a fun way to play and has kept me going on a cold table or two. No free lunch.
It would be simpler to hop the 7's and go with your yo if you must - If you are are adamant about this strategy then you might as well lay the 10 too, and you can lay them for 40 each. Losing the 4 or 10 can be a bankroll killer so I think I would avoid it. Lots of easy 4,6,8 & 10's out there and I bet over time the hardways would eat into you pretty bad.
The only way I have hedged on the don't is just a hedge against missing a hot roll. You get past the come out at 15 or 25 on the DP, lay 6x odds and go across at 26/27 or 52/54. I can grind okay like this when folks cant make points. I have no idea how bad this play is - X% wise, probably sucks (mine). Sometimes I leave the place bets up a bit, sometimes I take em down when they hit. I have had okay results in live play but have seen very mixed results playing this way on a craps simulator. If the shooter makes the point I might switch to the pass line, just depends. I like the action of the table so it can be a fun way to play and has kept me going on a cold table or two. No free lunch.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
October 18th, 2011 at 11:38:55 PM
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All these hedging schemes start off speaking about "simple" hedging, then they propose the most complicated schemes imaginable ... and all it ever ends up with is this "never win" system because all the effort is on protecting yourself against losses. If you are that concerned about not losing... don't play.Quote: FatFreddythe consensus is that there is no +ev strategy for craps. However, as I think about this, I wonder why simple hedging can't bring you into +ev.
You pays your money, you takes your chance, you abide by the results. Its that simple. Any time that you hedge away a risk of loss, you are hedging away a chance at a profit by lowering your bet.
So make a wager and accept the results of your having been right or wrong or else don't play.
October 19th, 2011 at 9:28:18 AM
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Quote: kpOnly if you own the casino.
Yikes, I made a mistake. I corrected it above. I should have written: The more you bet, the more they will win.
October 19th, 2011 at 9:30:24 AM
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I admit to one hedge... I bet a $5 horn high ace-deuce when I have a $25 passline bet.
I do not hedge at $10 or less.
I do not hedge at $10 or less.
October 19th, 2011 at 10:25:33 AM
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>You pays your money, you takes your chance, you abide by the results. Its that simple.
>Any time that you hedge away a risk of loss, you are hedging away a chance at a profit
>by lowering your net bet as some sort of bankroll protection scheme.
>
>So make a wager and accept the results of your having been right or wrong or else don't play.
>>>>>I admit to one hedge... I bet a $5 horn high ace-deuce when I have a $25 passline bet.
I don't even know what that bet is much less what the math related to it is. However, I think it would still be wrong to attempt to hedge it. Move to a 20 dollar table if you must but once you've chosen the Pass Line, don't quibble about it.
>>>>>I do not hedge at $10 or less.
Good. It makes little sense to hedge at such a wagering level.
>Any time that you hedge away a risk of loss, you are hedging away a chance at a profit
>by lowering your net bet as some sort of bankroll protection scheme.
>
>So make a wager and accept the results of your having been right or wrong or else don't play.
>>>>>I admit to one hedge... I bet a $5 horn high ace-deuce when I have a $25 passline bet.
I don't even know what that bet is much less what the math related to it is. However, I think it would still be wrong to attempt to hedge it. Move to a 20 dollar table if you must but once you've chosen the Pass Line, don't quibble about it.
>>>>>I do not hedge at $10 or less.
Good. It makes little sense to hedge at such a wagering level.
October 19th, 2011 at 11:51:13 AM
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Technically, there is a way to get to a point where you can have a +EV, but you risk an "overall" -EV trying to get there.
Here's what I mean: start with $110 Don't Pass.
If a point is rolled, buy the point for $105 (er, it is 5% to buy, right?).
If the shooter sevens out, you win $110 on the don't and lose $105 on the point, so you are up $5.
If the shooter makes the point, you win either $200 (if the point was 4/10), $150 (if it was 5/9), or $120 (if it was 6/8), and lose $110 on the don't, so you are up either $90, $40, or $10.
(Somebody check my numbers - I just got back from a vacation where the two largest casinos each had one, count it, one crap table (with 2x odds, on top of it) and no VP machines.)
However, like I said - you only get to a position where hedging gets you +ER if a point was rolled on the come-out. One time out of three, it isn't, and you lose your $110 eight times out of 11 when that happens.
It's similar to the "strategy" of taking insurance in blackjack when you have a blackjack and the dealer's up card is an ace - it's a positive EV, but you're risking a better EV.
Here's what I mean: start with $110 Don't Pass.
If a point is rolled, buy the point for $105 (er, it is 5% to buy, right?).
If the shooter sevens out, you win $110 on the don't and lose $105 on the point, so you are up $5.
If the shooter makes the point, you win either $200 (if the point was 4/10), $150 (if it was 5/9), or $120 (if it was 6/8), and lose $110 on the don't, so you are up either $90, $40, or $10.
(Somebody check my numbers - I just got back from a vacation where the two largest casinos each had one, count it, one crap table (with 2x odds, on top of it) and no VP machines.)
However, like I said - you only get to a position where hedging gets you +ER if a point was rolled on the come-out. One time out of three, it isn't, and you lose your $110 eight times out of 11 when that happens.
It's similar to the "strategy" of taking insurance in blackjack when you have a blackjack and the dealer's up card is an ace - it's a positive EV, but you're risking a better EV.
October 19th, 2011 at 2:19:51 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyTechnically, there is a way to get to a point where you can have a +EV, but you risk an "overall" -EV trying to get there.
Here's what I mean: start with $110 Don't Pass.
If a point is rolled, buy the point for $105 (er, it is 5% to buy, right?).
If the shooter sevens out, you win $110 on the don't and lose $105 on the point, so you are up $5.
If the shooter makes the point, you win either $200 (if the point was 4/10), $150 (if it was 5/9), or $120 (if it was 6/8), and lose $110 on the don't, so you are up either $90, $40, or $10.
(Somebody check my numbers - I just got back from a vacation where the two largest casinos each had one, count it, one crap table (with 2x odds, on top of it) and no VP machines.)
However, like I said - you only get to a position where hedging gets you +ER if a point was rolled on the come-out. One time out of three, it isn't, and you lose your $110 eight times out of 11 when that happens
It's similar to the "strategy" of taking insurance in blackjack when you have a blackjack and the dealer's up card is an ace - it's a positive EV, but you're risking a better EV.
I used to bet that system, with a partner, before switching over to a full-blown doey-dont (I just play for fun/comps)
$30 don't bet & hop the 7's for $6
Then my partner would "buy" the point for $30 ($1 vig taken on wins only)
They make the 4/10 it wins $59 - $36
They make the 5/9 it wins $44 - $36
They make the 6/8 it wins $35 - $36
There's still the 11 that hurts, but the 3 & 12 make up for it I figured (Bar 2 in Reno)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
