Question for Wizard about basic Pass strategy

Hi all,

I'm a new craps player with math background, read all the stuff on Wizard's site.

I am interested in the basic Pass line bet - to keep numbers simple, playing $10 plus full 3-4-5x odds. How can I calculate the odds for a binary outcome - either losing x ($100) or walking away when I win, say, 4x ($400). I know that to answer this question the deviation would be helpful as well. Thanks!

The probability of success is a bit less than 20%. The smaller the bets, the more under 20% the odds. I think this is about as good an answer as you'll get for free.

The Wizard has a risk of ruin formula that can be found in this thread with examples
Fun craps question by pacomartin

your average bet would be $37.78 using a flat bet of $10 with 345X odds.

For a $100 bank and a win goal of $400 I come up with 17.123% chance of success using the Wizards formula.
win goal of $300 22.266%
win goal of $200 30.871%
win goal of $100 48.129%

1 million craps simulation shows:
win goal of $400 18.575%
win goal of $300 23.091%
win goal of $200 30.469%
win goal of $100 43.642%

you can also find a risk of ruin calculator by Alan Krigman since you are a math guy here:
Alan Krigman Excel RoR calc
added: alan's RoR calc uses edge and standard deviation.

The Wiz shows a 345x table over at WoO. I cant find the link at the moment.
SD should be 4.91563184 for 345X

Enjoy!

Thanks! This info and the thread you pointed me to are terrific. I just ran through those calcs as well. I think the 17.123% chance of success is based off of a Pass line house edge (1.41%). With full 3/4/5x odds the edge would come down on that average bet of $37.78...I think the house edge would be 0.35% going off memory. In that case the chance of success would be more like 19.2%.

Just got curious about this...thanks all!

Quote: guido111

a risk of ruin formula
For a $100 bank and a win goal of $400 I come up with 17.123% chance of success
1 million craps simulation shows:
win goal of $400 18.575%

Okay, I guess there is indeed a slight difference between 18.575 and 17.123 and from a purist sense of "the best edge you can get", decisions should be made on such slight amounts but I don't really see much difference at all.

If turning 100 into 400 will only happen 17.123 percent of the time then at least we know what a realistic expectation is. I always hope I'll win enough to buy the Venetian. Never works out that way though.

Risk of ruin is an interesting statistic as is house edge, but do we want to know the Price of Betting or the price of having a reasonable bet? I really do know I'm not going to win enough to buy the Venetian but I do consider 100 into 400 to be small potatoes.

You are on the right path as to betting the pass-odds only, this is our best chance of positive results. They get us with all the multitude of bets available and the ole ugly is just too powerfull for betting on multiple numbers.

One of my better playing schemes in craps is just betting $5 pass then level $30 odds, and quit play after 4 consecutive shooters fail to make at least one point. Then wait for a point to be make and start anew. Use a 20x the odds bet bankroll, so 20 x $30 odds is $600 day session bankroll and very important to not go underfunded. I played this one for only 5 day sessions and quit it after the last session loss but did have 4 winning days and a total net win of +$1050 in five day sessions. Maybe gave up on this one too soon, but will be returning to it. That is the advantage of keeping accurate records of playing schemes and results.

Progression and regressions on the odds bet does not help overall as been there and done that, level odds is the best with a quit point to avoid the many cold streaks when no one can make a point for extended periods of time. On the typical choppy table this pass-odds scheme will do well and is probably as good as any.