How long before 7?

Is there any way to speculate or conjecture how long the average roll is before the dreaded 7? I thought I saw a graph the other day that showed the frequency of at what point you're most likely to see 7 and the data said it seemed like 50% of the time, people 7-out before the 3rd roll... was I nuts?

~N

Look about a quarter of the way down this page from the Wizard's other site and see if it answers your question.

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/

Average roll before a 7-out is 8.5. Although, it sure does seem like point-7 happens more than that.

Quote: Alan

Average roll before a 7-out is 8.5. Although, it sure does seem like point-7 happens more than that.

That 0.5 roll must be one that didn't hit the back wall.

Its often been why I tend to make a Pass Line Bet and then Two Come Bets .... and then want to switch to the DontCome on the theory that a "seven" is somehow due.

It may only be the emotional impact, but yes... I seem to recall alot of those PSO nights, where its nothing but Point then Seven Out all night long.

You want the cumulative probability of the binomial distribution. My excel is acting up, else i'd get the prob right now. Someone else can do it, or you can find a chart.

click here

Last question on the page.

Quote: FleaStiff

... those PSO nights, where its nothing but Point then Seven Out all night long.

It happens to us all, all of us that have played the game for any decent length of time.....and while the lone dark sider is thinking to himself..thank you, thank you all for such a prosperous night.

I can see the t-shirts now.."I point sevened out all night long at the <insert casino name here>".

I've seen those happen... 7 PSO, 11 PSO, 13PSO... brutal... and we remember those but how frequent are those - as frequent as they should be, I imagine, but you really remember'm!

What's wrong with this method:

Wait 'til a 7 is rolled on the come-out and if a point is immediately set place 54, 81, 108, or 130 across (buying 4s and 10s) along with $3-5 on a crap-check.

Then give the dice 1 roll - you lose on 7 & 11, win $7-58 on anything else. Turn bets off.

Wait til the next come out hits a 7, immediately sets the point, bets on, 1 roll, bets off.

If the PSO happens < 4 in 5 times, then it's pretty much even-money (right, minimum win call it $35 * 4 [takes care of the difference b/w 6/8 & 4/10 w/ craps) = $140). Get $5 in a row right, you've doubled your money - just the same as you'd basically need to do if you placed 5 numbers and even though the average roll is 8.5 before a 7... in my world, it seems about every 3rd roll after the point the 7 shows up. ;)

This a crazy "method?" (I'm done using the terms strategy and system).

~N

It's 7:05 now, so a little less than 12 hours.