When do you pull your bets or do you? in Craps
Quote: ClownkeeperI have read several books on playing craps and they say to never take down your bets. In some of threads I see that a seven can be expected every 8 rolls or so. So why wouldn't you pull your bets down after say 8 rolls or after a win or two.
that's an easy one, the timing is unpredictable because the dice "have no memory" ... you really need to grasp this fast
Quote:It seems smart to pull bets down after some wins, but is it???
I might take bets down when I accidentally just have too much money bet for my comfort level, due to a buildup of unresolved bets. Otherwise I don't like to do it as it is possible to get confused and try to pick up a bet that just lost such as handy odds bets after a 7 out. Embarrassing.
Quote: ClownkeeperI have read several books on playing craps and they say to never take down your bets. In some of threads I see that a seven can be expected every 8 rolls or so. So why wouldn't you pull your bets down after say 8 rolls or after a win or two. I understand that "the big roll" could happen and that you would end up standing there with your bets down while numbers keep hitting , but how often does that really happen?? If you do keep your bets up for example at a $5 table with 4 come bets at 3-4-5 odds you could have $110 on the table. After 4 wins of $35 each you won $140.00 now the next roll, you 7 out now you only won $30. Looking for some guidance on this. It seems smart to pull bets down after some wins, but is it???
well personally I never pull down my bets but......If im playing a lot of come bets with odd. I will almost never have the odds working on the come-out. Yes, yes I know I should but If I have like 3 or 4 come bets out there its nice to know I will get back the odds if I roll a 7 on the come out!
Alas.
Quote: ClownkeeperI have read several books on playing craps and they say to never take down your bets. In some of threads I see that a seven can be expected every 8 rolls or so. So why wouldn't you pull your bets down after say 8 rolls or after a win or two.
The actual "average length" of a shooters hand (including the 7out) is: ~8.53 or exactly 1671/196. This has been brought up many times before.
Standard Deviation is ~6.8
At the WoO HERE
the last question has the math and answer.
And for the distribution.
The mode or most common number of rolls in a shooters hand (including the 7out) is only 3.
The second most common is 2. Yes, the famous point7.
~50.28%, the median, (1 out of 2) of all shooters never hold the dice for more than 6 rolls including the 7out roll.
~68.06% (2 out of 3) of all shooters never hold the dice for more than 9 rolls including the 7out roll.
cumulative frequency table below
Probability of Seven Out by and including the X roll
Prob Roll
0 1
11.1111% 2
22.7881% 3
33.2647% 4
42.3871% 5
50.2789% 6
57.0956% 7
62.9809% 8
68.0609% 9
72.4453% 10
76.2290% 11
79.4938% 12
82.3108% 13
84.7412% 14
86.8380% 15
88.6469% 16
90.2074% 17
91.5535% 18
92.7146% 19
93.7162% 20
94.5801% 21
95.3253% 22
95.9680% 23
96.5224% 24
97.0006% 25
97.4131% 26
97.7688% 27
98.0756% 28
98.3402% 29
98.5685% 30
98.7653% 31
98.9351% 32
99.0816% 33
99.2079% 34
99.3168% 35
99.4108% 36
99.4918% 37
99.5617% 38
99.6220% 39
99.6740% 40
99.7188% 41
99.7575% 42
99.7908% 43
99.8196% 44
99.8444% 45
99.8658% 46
99.8843% 47
99.9002% 48
99.9139% 49
99.9257% 50
This is good enough reason to have at least 1 bet always working.
I tracked at the Golden Nugget in Vegas my last trip there a few months back, here is what each of the 40 shooters did. Well, how many rolls they had while they had the dice including their 7 out. I made good money at this table never taking my bets down. Pass line with 3,4,5X odds, buy 4 and 10 and place 6 & 8.
See if you can tell by the time series when was a good time to take bets down and why.
The math says that 50% of all shooters 7 out within 6 rolls.
Without knowing the standard deviation... Did that happen this time or how close did it come?
Here is the frequency table.
roll freq
2 3
3 8
4 5
5 3
6 3
7 1
8 1
9 4
10 1
11 3
12 1
13 1
14 0
15 1
16 0
17 2
18 0
19 1
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 0
25 0
26 1
27 1
28 0
29 0
30 0
Remember, a probability does not predict anything, it just tell us the chances of an event that is yet to happen. We still have to wait for the distribution to unfold.
Quote: ClownkeeperI understand that "the big roll" could happen and that you would end up standing there with your bets down while numbers keep hitting , but how often does that really happen??
I ask what is the definition of a "big roll"? How many rolls, point and pass line wins and multiple come bets wins dows it take to "qualify" as a "big roll"?
Again, pull bets down after 1 win? 2 wins? 3 wins? Computer simulations shows it makes absolutly no difference the longer you play craps. One can win more by losing less and by the same token one can lose more by winning less.Quote: ClownkeeperIt seems smart to pull bets down after some wins, but is it???
The other night after a decent round at the table I decided to leave and have my chips ready to color up and of course this lady throws like 9 sixes (three of them being points and 3 hard ways) 4 eights 3 nines and 4 fours. I felt like a chump missing that roll and for those who hate it when they leave the table the dice came off at least 4 times on her roll. Goes to show you never can tell. If one had resigned himself to saying heres my 24 dollars put it on the 6 & 8 even without the pressing you would have made some loot.
Quote: ClownkeeperIf you do keep your bets up for example at a $5 table with 4 come bets at 3-4-5 odds you could have $110 on the table. After 4 wins of $35 each you won $140.00 now the next roll, you 7 out now you only won $30. Looking for some guidance on this. It seems smart to pull bets down after some wins, but is it???
Your example leaves me a bit confused. So you're going to keep up four come bets at all times and keep them going after every win? If a come bet hits why not just pocket the chips instead of getting right back on the come and keeping that many come bets up?
So...I pull my bets all the time. Please note: I don't play the PL/DP, nor do it play come bets / DC. I make bets which are equivalent to what the WOV would consider "Bridge Jumper" bets. These are bets that have a very high probablility of winning a small amount per roll but also have a small probability of losing a large amount per roll. So obviously, the longer you leave such bets "working" per game, the greater the risk...thus the reason I have them working for a very short period during a craps game.
Quote: ClownkeeperI have read several books on playing craps and they say to never take down your bets. In some of threads I see that a seven can be expected every 8 rolls or so. So why wouldn't you pull your bets down after say 8 rolls or after a win or two. I understand that "the big roll" could happen and that you would end up standing there with your bets down while numbers keep hitting , but how often does that really happen?? If you do keep your bets up for example at a $5 table with 4 come bets at 3-4-5 odds you could have $110 on the table. After 4 wins of $35 each you won $140.00 now the next roll, you 7 out now you only won $30. Looking for some guidance on this. It seems smart to pull bets down after some wins, but is it???
Are you just talking about pulling down the odds on the come bets? Because the come bet itself can never be pulled down just like your P/L bet cant be pulled down after the come out.
All I needed was the shooter to hit at least ONE inside number, and he's profitable.
Reas more about it here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/
Here's what I usually do...(and I SWEAR it works like 8/10)
If a shooter rolls three consecutive crap rolls (2, 3, 12) I pick up my odds and turn off my place bets.
Don't ask me why, but like I said 8/10 times after 3 consecutive crap rolls, the 7 shows up.
Someone once put it to me like this (Not that it has any reasoning, but it sounds good)...
"When someone starts rolling crap numbers, the dice have got off-keel from rolling point numbers, and therefore will 7 out."
However, SOME people (including myself) will change the dice if we roll 3 crap numbers in a row...if we STILL roll a crap number, then forget it, LOL.
Quote: AussieI can never understand why people complain that they "missed the big roll" or "pulled their bets down and the roll went for another half hour". If you didn't do those things the roll would have been completely different. If your bets are still up there then the dealer takes slightly longer to pay out, the dice get back to the shooter at a slightly different time and the shooter throws the dice in a slightly different fashion with a slightly different result. Lets be honest, anything at all that would make the roll not progress EXACTLY the same way as it did means you did not miss out on anything at all by not being on the big roll.
So by your same reasoning, someone pulling their money off the table could have put the kibosh on the roll by reducing the payout time and getting the dice back to the shooter at a different time... etc, etc. In other words, by changing the variables, everyone lost. So... Don't pull.
By not pressing a winning bet, I am taking a bet down. In essence you take down a little bit of money with every win, so when that 8th roll comes around you are hopefully up and can let your base bets continue in case of a long roll. This avoids kicking your own ass for not keeping a bet up when the shooter got hot. You may kick your own ass for not betting more, but that is not as bad.
He only said it changes things.Quote: AyecarumbaSo by your same reasoning, someone pulling their money off the table could have put the kibosh on the roll by reducing the payout time and getting the dice back to the shooter at a different time... etc, etc. In other words, by changing the variables, everyone lost. So... Don't pull.
You're the one assuming that means it put the kibosh on it....
Quote: jsantee97IMO you should never pull your bets down in craps. If you feel the need to pull them down...leave the game.
And leave in a hurry, before you hear the stickman call out "winner!"
Quote: clarkacalAnd leave in a hurry, before you hear the stickman call out "winner!"
Haha so true! Once I color out I book it out of there ASAP and assume every other sucker who stayed is losing. No need to have nightmares about the what if's.
Quote: AyecarumbaSo by your same reasoning, someone pulling their money off the table could have put the kibosh on the roll by reducing the payout time and getting the dice back to the shooter at a different time... etc, etc. In other words, by changing the variables, everyone lost. So... Don't pull.
Of course. Any factor at all could effect the outcome either positively or negatively. To walk away immediatey prior to a big roll and say that walking away cost you money is nonsense. You don't know either way.
If there is a way to win in craps, I have mastered it. Don't play the pass line. You are stuck with that number and can't leave. The seven is the most probable number and will mostly likely to do so before any other number is rolled twice. That is where they get you with the bs true odds allure. So big deal if you get paid 6 to 5 instead of 7 to 6, or 3 to 3 instead of 7 to 5, or 2 to 1 instead of 9 to 5. All that doesn't matter if the probability of that occurring is slim.
I have great success playing the board. 4,5,6,8,9,10. Hit two or three numbers and take it all down. Walk away. Dont have to worry about the point being made, and forget about that long roll that everyone thinks is coming.... because its probably not! Everyone HOPES for that lottery roll. That is why they are losers. Leave the table a winner! Just like playing the stock market. If you make a decent return on a stock purchase, you sell it and forget it. Who cares if it continues to run up as long as you made your profit. Management and discipline is what separates winners from losers.
Good Luck!
Quote: AussieOf course. Any factor at all could effect the outcome either positively or negatively. To walk away immediatey prior to a big roll and say that walking away cost you money is nonsense. You don't know either way.
Quite right, sorry for giving you a hard time... perhaps it's my pent up bitterness from being forced to pull bets down due to a dinner reservation, then walking by later to see the same players on a table with overflowing racks..... arrrgh
Quote: AussieI can never understand why people complain that they "missed the big roll" or "pulled their bets down and the roll went for another half hour". If you didn't do those things the roll would have been completely different. If your bets are still up there then the dealer takes slightly longer to pay out, the dice get back to the shooter at a slightly different time and the shooter throws the dice in a slightly different fashion with a slightly different result. Lets be honest, anything at all that would make the roll not progress EXACTLY the same way as it did means you did not miss out on anything at all by not being on the big roll.
I like this! It's how I rationalize bad timing too!
Quote: WatchMeWinNo one has ever left a loser once they have left while ahead. For anyone to say that you should stay on the table and never take your money down is just plain loser talk. Hit n Run. Casinos hate us when we do that. They want people to put in time because they know they will win in the long run.
If there is a way to win in craps, I have mastered it. Don't play the pass line. You are stuck with that number and can't leave. The seven is the most probable number and will mostly likely to do so before any other number is rolled twice. That is where they get you with the bs true odds allure. So big deal if you get paid 6 to 5 instead of 7 to 6, or 3 to 3 instead of 7 to 5, or 2 to 1 instead of 9 to 5. All that doesn't matter if the probability of that occurring is slim.
I have great success playing the board. 4,5,6,8,9,10. Hit two or three numbers and take it all down. Walk away. Dont have to worry about the point being made, and forget about that long roll that everyone thinks is coming.... because its probably not! Everyone HOPES for that lottery roll. That is why they are losers. Leave the table a winner! Just like playing the stock market. If you make a decent return on a stock purchase, you sell it and forget it. Who cares if it continues to run up as long as you made your profit. Management and discipline is what separates winners from losers.
Good Luck!
I'm surprised I'm the first one to burst your bubble Watchmewin, but you haven't mastered it. Believe me, just because betting place numbers gives you the freedom to leave when you want to doesn't mean it gives you an edge. Minimum pass line with max odds is always going to be a better bet.
Your hit and run strategy is no more successful than staying for the whole roll. There is no difference between 10 short sessions and one long session if the amount of money in play is equal.
Also, it is not like the stock market. I'm no expert, but the stock market is driven by public opinion and demand, along with company performance. The dice wil not be affected whether most people want a 4 or 7, or if they have been hot or cold recently.
Quote: buzzpaffDoes this mean that lady did not steal my jackpot on the slots ?
Hehe, no, actually she did steal that. The newbie on third base soaked up all your dealer's bust cards too.
The edge is in your management, discipline, understanding the probabilities, and walking away at will. What good would it do anyone to have lets say even 3 to 1 odds behind the pass line when the probability of the point to hit is 1 in 6? Figure that one out. I wish you well and hope you win backing up your pass bet. And when the point is a 5, then a 6 and a 9 hit, Ill be at the cash register before the outcome of that roll, which will most likely be a 7. And if the 5 hits, great! I will have won 7 to 5 on my bet instead of 3 to 2. Big Deal!
Additionally, my analogy regarding walking away and not looking back has to do with the mindset of discipline and not getting greedy.. not the acutally events of how dice are rolled or stocks are driven by market.
Quote: WatchMeWinI respectfully disagree Clarkacal. But that is what debates are all about. I know the truth about what works for me. And if it works for me, there has to be truth to it. Ive been playing craps for 20 years. I have played every week within that timeframe... thats alot of rolls that I have experienced. In my earlier years, I too would play the pass, put odds, and hope for shooters to make points and go on long rolls... I was a sucker! 10 years ago, I decided to balls up and put real money across the board and just be happy with a couple numbers at a time. I believe in consistantly hitting lots and lots of singles as opposed to swinging for the fence and striking out 90 pcnt of the time.
The edge is in your management, discipline, understanding the probabilities, and walking away at will. What good would it do anyone to have lets say even 3 to 1 odds behind the pass line when the probability of the point to hit is 1 in 6? Figure that one out. I wish you well and hope you win backing up your pass bet. And when the point is a 5, then a 6 and a 9 hit, Ill be at the cash register before the outcome of that roll, which will most likely be a 7. And if the 5 hits, great! I will have won 7 to 5 on my bet instead of 3 to 2. Big Deal!
Additionally, my analogy regarding walking away and not looking back has to do with the mindset of discipline and not getting greedy.. not the acutally events of how dice are rolled or stocks are driven by market.
That darn 7 cleans out pass line bets as well as place bets. You can't hit and run when you don't get ahead to begin with, which is quite often the case in craps. Your strategy might prevent big losses (and big wins for that matter) but you still lose money over the long run, just like those "fools" playing the pass w/odds. The only advantage I can see in what you are saying is the fact that if you leave the table, you play less money, therefore lose less money.
Quote: WatchMeWinI respectfully disagree Clarkacal. But that is what debates are all about. I know the truth about what works for me. And if it works for me, there has to be truth to it. Ive been playing craps for 20 years. I have played every week within that timeframe... thats alot of rolls that I have experienced. In my earlier years, I too would play the pass, put odds, and hope for shooters to make points and go on long rolls... I was a sucker! 10 years ago, I decided to balls up and put real money across the board and just be happy with a couple numbers at a time. I believe in consistantly hitting lots and lots of singles as opposed to swinging for the fence and striking out 90 pcnt of the time.
The edge is in your management, discipline, understanding the probabilities, and walking away at will. What good would it do anyone to have lets say even 3 to 1 odds behind the pass line when the probability of the point to hit is 1 in 6? Figure that one out. I wish you well and hope you win backing up your pass bet. And when the point is a 5, then a 6 and a 9 hit, Ill be at the cash register before the outcome of that roll, which will most likely be a 7. And if the 5 hits, great! I will have won 7 to 5 on my bet instead of 3 to 2. Big Deal!
Additionally, my analogy regarding walking away and not looking back has to do with the mindset of discipline and not getting greedy.. not the acutally events of how dice are rolled or stocks are driven by market.
I don't want to get into a long discussion about why passline w odds is better than place bets. I'm not sure I could convince you. Ask yourself this though. Why do casinos happily comp players that cover the board w place bets but turn their noses up in disgust at the player that bets full odds?
You made the analogy of walking away from a craps table to buying low and selling high in the stock market. I agree that mindset and discipline are important in gambling. However, what I am saying is you are just as likely to keep winning as losing because the dice are random every roll. In stocks prices go up because there is a demand for them. When the price gets too high there will be less demand and it should plateau or decline. The dice do not change based on how much your bets are being pressed or what portion of the table wants them to hit the point. Therefore you did not make or lose any extra money by quitting, you just hit pause in your long term gambling.
Quote: WatchMeWinWhat good would it do anyone to have lets say even 3 to 1 odds behind the pass line when the probability of the point to hit is 1 in 6?
At what point does that situation occur?
Quote: clarkacalI don't want to get into a long discussion about why passline w odds is better than place bets. I'm not sure I could convince you. Ask yourself this though. Why do casinos happily comp players that cover the board w place bets but turn their noses up in disgust at the player that bets full odds?
I'm sure everyone here, including WatchMeWin, would agree with you that passline w odds is better than place bets....IN TERMS of payout odds and HA%. Also, your example for comp valuations makes sense - if both types of players leave their numbers working 100% of the time. But for players who take down their places bets routinely, such comparisons have little value. I can't speak for WMW personally, but those who pull their bets routinely - don't play craps for comps. I know I don't.
One of the very few advantages a player has over the house is the ability to control when, where, & how much to bet. If you play the passline, you're basically giving away this advantage back to the casino - as you cannot turn off your passline bet. Now...how much value would you place on the ability to turn your bets on or off?? Is it worth the extra odds you give up for place betting as opposed to PL w full odds?? Some would argue there is little or no material value for giving up your ability to turn on/off your bets. But what WMW is saying is this ability is...well...priceless.
And I couldn't agree more.....
Obviously point 7 is the worst scenario... and it does happen. But more often then not, I can get 2 to 3 numbers before the crap out. Stay positive, no fear, and keep away from negative players and crowded slow moving tables. Dice do find rythm and flow.
Quote: WatchMeWinI don't give a sh#% about comps. I play to win, not for comps. I have no problem paying my own way.
q]
My example was to show you that both I and the casino disagree with you. It is their business to give comps to people who they make money from.
Quote: WatchMeWinStay positive, no fear, and keep away from negative players and crowded slow moving tables. Dice do find rythm and flow.
I hope the Wizard doesn't come across this gem
Quote: WatchMeWinIm glad to see that there is a sensible and realistic craps player here.
You might help your case if you did not refuse to answer a simple question about a post of yours. Re: "What good would it do anyone to have lets say even 3 to 1 odds behind the pass line when the probability of the point to hit is 1 in 6?"
Can you explain this or at least describe when this occurs?
Quote: SanchoPanzaAt what point does that situation occur?
Maybe he his playing crapless craps at the stratosphere And the point is a 2 or 12. Thats the only time I can think making the point vs making a 7 is 1 in 6. Although your free odds would pay 6 to 1 as well not 3 to 1. I was thinkin about debating this guy but why waste my time LOL.
Quote: vert1276Maybe he his playing crapless craps at the stratosphere And the point is a 2 or 12. Thats the only time I can think making the point vs making a 7 is 1 in 6. Although your free odds would pay 6 to 1 as well not 3 to 1. I was thinkin about debating this guy but why waste my time LOL.
The first red flag is that the OP does not know the difference between taking and laying odds and even where they are placed. From there, it's all downhill, as with so many self-proclaimed winners and experts who have passed through this and similar forums and will no doubt continue to do so.
Quote: WatchMeWinthe odds of winning on place bets independent of odds placed in respective random settings can be favorable to pass line odds bets at a 5 factor leaving prop bets and dont pass probabilities as 9 factors whick will result in a 78% winning statistic exclusive of recurring hard way bets as they pertain to the original betting theory.
So, HELL YES, you should pull your bets down, and often.
