CI vs Table Limit vs Number of Rolls
December 2nd, 2024 at 8:01:04 PM
permalink
I've found myself in the case where trying to hit a certain amount of CI in a reasonably expeditious fashion an optimal behavior. (aka, point grinding at a loss)
Far as I can tell, the optimal strategy is P/DP with full odds to minimize -EV, and P/DP as low as possible to minimize variance. 1.50 P/DP would minimize variance, but take an absolute eternity to meet CI requirements, whereas 126 P/DP would max out table limit on a single roll, but also expose you to a massive amount of variance. More problematic for trying to calculate, it means that only 7 and every other point would contribute to your CI, whereas a considerably more modest 30 P/DP would allow you to support up to four numbers. Except the more I look at it, the more it feels like there may no difference to CI, between a large and a small individual bet since the frequency might balance itself out...
Does anybody have an idea how the numbers here shake out?
Far as I can tell, the optimal strategy is P/DP with full odds to minimize -EV, and P/DP as low as possible to minimize variance. 1.50 P/DP would minimize variance, but take an absolute eternity to meet CI requirements, whereas 126 P/DP would max out table limit on a single roll, but also expose you to a massive amount of variance. More problematic for trying to calculate, it means that only 7 and every other point would contribute to your CI, whereas a considerably more modest 30 P/DP would allow you to support up to four numbers. Except the more I look at it, the more it feels like there may no difference to CI, between a large and a small individual bet since the frequency might balance itself out...
Does anybody have an idea how the numbers here shake out?
