dicedata
dicedata
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October 21st, 2024 at 2:55:09 PM permalink
I'm trying to understand this page: wizardofodds (dot) com (slash) games/craps/basics/

Towards the bottom, under "Summary of Multi-Roll Bets"

The Hard 4 and 10 (US) row shows that the average number of rolls is 3.27. This would be 11 ways to roll out of 36 ways (36/11=3.27)

But I am deriving 9 ways to resolve a hard 4 (2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and the six sevens). This would be 36/9=4 rolls average to resolve a hard 4.

I'm wondering where the discrepancy is?
Dieter
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Dieter
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October 21st, 2024 at 4:31:43 PM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/

Convenient link, courteously provided
May the cards fall in your favor.
ChumpChange
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October 21st, 2024 at 4:45:40 PM permalink
The hard 4 is the 2-2 and is a 1 in 36 roll. The two other 4's (1-3, 3-1) are easy and are 1 in 18 hops. How long it actually takes for the number to show up could be 100 to 200+ rolls, so watch out.
Hard hops — Pays 30-1 on any specific double, for example 1-1 or 4-4.
Easy hops — Pays 15-1 on any specific combination of two different faces, for example 1-3 or 4-5.
ChesterDog
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October 21st, 2024 at 7:43:41 PM permalink
Quote: dicedata

I'm trying to understand this page: wizardofodds (dot) com (slash) games/craps/basics/

Towards the bottom, under "Summary of Multi-Roll Bets"

The Hard 4 and 10 (US) row shows that the average number of rolls is 3.27. This would be 11 ways to roll out of 36 ways (36/11=3.27)

But I am deriving 9 ways to resolve a hard 4 (2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and the six sevens). This would be 36/9=4 rolls average to resolve a hard 4.

I'm wondering where the discrepancy is?
link to original post



Here's the link you gave: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/.

You're right--in the table called "Multi-Roll Bets in Craps," the average rolls for the hard 4 bet should be 4 and not 3.27 (or 3.60.) For the hard 4, the typos have 3.27 for the US and 3.60 for Australia.

In that table, all the bets involving 4 or 10 should be 4 rolls. The bets involving 5 or 9 should be 3.60, and those involving 6 or 8 should be 3.27.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 21st, 2024 at 7:44:40 PM permalink
Thank you for the correction.

I agree the average rolls to resolve a hard 4 or 10 bet is 4.00.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
dicedata
dicedata
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October 22nd, 2024 at 3:37:00 AM permalink
Great thank you!

Thanks for putting all this together - it's been an incredible resource for me when I run my simulations.
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