Probability of hitting

What is more likely to happen with a shooter.

A 4 rolled 5 times or the ATS TO HIT.

Also how many shooters would it take to hit one or the other.

I should add I have a 5 dollar table near me.

Parlaying a 4 on the 5th hit shoukd pay 1200 on the 5th hit

ATS on same table pays about $1100 on a 5-5-5

Just wondering what would be better to throw money away on.

I could get 3 rolls on the 4 for 1 ATS ROLL

I'm not about parlaying, but on a 4 or 10 doubling the bet on a winning number is OK. Increasing the bet to what you just won on the 5 or 9 is OK too. But others love to power press and get burned. For a $15 bet on the 5 or 9 that pays $21, just add $5 on the winning number. For a $20 bet on the 4 or 10 that pays $39, just add $20 on the winning number.
My local casinos charge the vig upfront and that raises the HA considerably so buying the 4/10 is a poorer bet than at other places where they only charge the vig on the win. Check out bubble craps for buy bets if you like buy bets with the vig on the win for the 4, 5, 9, & 10.

As for my FOMO for not betting the 4 & 10 on the Bubble Craps? I've got too much of it. How would it go somewhat your way? $5, $10, $25, $70, $200, $400 (max bet), so 6 hits to get to $1400 that way. My normal progression would be $5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $400 (max bet) or 8 hits which is not happening.

What's your progression?

I am new here but been playing craps a long time.

I am just trying to figure out what has the best probability of hitting on a shooters roll. ATS or the fours.

Just looking tonsee if I can create my own "mini bonus" I can pull down or collect from

If you are shooting yourself and can roll your designated 4 a number of times while you are betting it and pressing it, you're on your way, but don't expect others to roll the numbers you want, they'll be playing their own game like playing the Field bets or the horn bets or the points or certain place bets. The dice may be random, but they'll be throwing against you based on their betting choices. You may be in or out of luck.

As for the math involved for figuring out whether a monster roll will achieve your objectives, I expect one 20+ roll per hour on the bubble craps on average. I have no idea how often they appear on a real table.

Quote: IntelligentMang

I am new here but been playing craps a long time.

I am just trying to figure out what has the best probability of hitting on a shooters roll. ATS or the fours.

Just looking tonsee if I can create my own "mini bonus" I can pull down or collect from
link to original post

has nothing to do with 'how many shooters'

odds of hitting ATS 0.005258 which is 1 in 190.19
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/

odds of a 4 being rolled 5 times in a row is 1/12^5 which is 1 in 248,832

a few of reasons why you weren't getting a reply:

* these things can be looked up
* the math at this point is 'nothing new' so no one takes interest
* there's a feeling that one is contributing to something that needs no encouragement

PS I guess chumpchange had something to say, I didn't read it because he usually goes into his own ideas about how to gamble badly

This acronym must be interpreted before responding to this post.

What is ATS on craps?
Google result:
“All tall small? its a suckers bet where you can bet that they will hit all the small numbers 2-6 or all the tall numbers 8-12 before a 7. you can only bet it before a new shooters throws his/her first dice.”

but parlaying the 4 looks like an even worse idea

Quote: odiousgambit

but parlaying the 4 looks like an even worse idea
link to original post

You don’t understand, OG. It’s not getting a 4 some times in a row, it’s getting a 4 before a 7 is rolled some times in a row. So if it’s 5 times in a row, it’s 1/3 to the 5th power. Or 1/243.

Quote: IntelligentMang

A 4 rolled 5 times or the ATS TO HIT.
link to original post

Soopoo is right, so this question doesn't make a lot of sense as posed.

I guess he was actually asking what Soopoo answered

A 1 in 243 chance of hitting the 4 five times in one turn, eh? With a $5 initial bet and a $1200 outcome, it'd be good to hit that early. Otherwise you'll be losing $1215 before it's due if you're not collecting any wins due to the parlaying. I don't even have the vig figured in or a complimentary bet on the 10.

Repeat equation on the 4 five times is 1/(3/9)^5 = 1 in 243.
Answered earlier: odds of hitting ATS 0.005258 which is 1 in 190.19

But what about hitting the 5 five times: 1/(4/10)^5 = 1 in 97.65

And hitting the 6 five times is 1/(5/11)^5 = 1 in 51.54

I like my chances on the 5 better than the 4. Hitting the 5 six times is 1 in 244, so that's about even with hitting the 4 five times.

I usually try to hit the PB 6 for six times: 1/(5/11)^6 = 1 in 113.38
but I do try to run up my progression to 9 times which is 1/(5/11)^9 = 1 in 1,207.27

One time somebody hit the 5 fourteen times for me and won me a bundle. 1/(4/10)^14 = 1 in 372,529

Thank you. I apologize for not being clear.

That is correct a four rolled 5 times before a shooter 7 outs.

I looked for the ATS odds just missed it.

Thank you guys for the responses

Thank you for the reply.