Bossdog
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Mission146
October 1st, 2023 at 5:55:47 PM permalink
I always play the same, pass line with full odds and two come bets with full odds. If point is made and new roll, typically odds are not working. However you can make them work. Looking at the odds, does it make sense to leave them working. If roller gets 7, you lose everything on previous come bets but win on the new pass line bet. I always figured, that it’s an independent bet with full odds so makes sense to leave working. Thoughts.
Mission146
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October 1st, 2023 at 7:11:04 PM permalink
On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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October 1st, 2023 at 7:18:17 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
link to original post



True though I recall Wizard arguing that since you can’t turn off the come base bet it’s better to keep the odds on to keep the HE on the come out roll minimized. I can see it both ways.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
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October 1st, 2023 at 9:28:19 PM permalink
If you're throwing the dice and it's the come-out roll and you have a couple come bets up you could turn on the odds because you have no intention of rolling a 7 and every intention of hitting one of those come numbers. That's just a non-tourist move.
Bossdog
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October 1st, 2023 at 9:45:51 PM permalink
I think that anytime a casino does something automatically, like remove odds on new roll, it must make sense to keep them on.
ChumpChange
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October 1st, 2023 at 9:51:06 PM permalink
If I don't have come bets up on the come-out rolls, I'm going to be throwing 7-11's too many times to count and I only need one to wipe out the table of come bets. It's just a function of the game that people are trying to throw 7's on the come-out that other bets are off with the puck. I don't try to fight against the puck.
Ace2
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October 1st, 2023 at 11:52:22 PM permalink
There is a standard operating procedure for this:

If a local is shooting, turn odds on

If a tourist is shooting, leave them off

Easy rule to memorize
It’s all about making that GTA
SOOPOO
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October 2nd, 2023 at 5:22:18 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
link to original post



True though I recall Wizard arguing that since you can’t turn off the come base bet it’s better to keep the odds on to keep the HE on the come out roll minimized. I can see it both ways.
link to original post



I doubt the Wiz said that. An odds bet does not change the HE on the come out roll. As stated, they are two separate bets. The HE on any and all come out rolls is 1.41%. It is zero on all odds bets.
unJon
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October 2nd, 2023 at 6:01:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
link to original post



True though I recall Wizard arguing that since you can’t turn off the come base bet it’s better to keep the odds on to keep the HE on the come out roll minimized. I can see it both ways.
link to original post



I doubt the Wiz said that. An odds bet does not change the HE on the come out roll. As stated, they are two separate bets. The HE on any and all come out rolls is 1.41%. It is zero on all odds bets.
link to original post


Oh, well if you doubt it! lol


https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/odds-bets/

Quote: Wizard of Odds Answer

The player should always leave the odds on regardless of how many come bets are active. When considering the options, looking at the probability of winning alone is not enough. Yes, with one come bet the odds of losing the come bet are greater than winning, however the potential win is greater than potential loss. The reason the player should always leave the odds on are because it is a bet with zero house edge. By turning the odds off the player is making the overall game more heavily weighted towards the bets with a house edge, thus increasing the overall ratio of the expected loss to the total amount bet.



ETA: and another further down that page.



But that must all be wrong, because SOOPOO doubts the Wizard said it.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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October 2nd, 2023 at 7:48:53 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
link to original post



True though I recall Wizard arguing that since you can’t turn off the come base bet it’s better to keep the odds on to keep the HE on the come out roll minimized. I can see it both ways.
link to original post



I doubt the Wiz said that. An odds bet does not change the HE on the come out roll. As stated, they are two separate bets. The HE on any and all come out rolls is 1.41%. It is zero on all odds bets.
link to original post



I’m not sure if he did, but if he did, I understand his logic. His logic would be that, with odds on, you have a lower House Edge PERCENTAGE against you for that individual CO roll(s) relative to your total action. It wouldn’t change the monetary expected loss, which is the only thing I would care about if someone asked me.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ace2
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October 2nd, 2023 at 11:36:42 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146


I’m not sure if he did, but if he did, I understand his logic. His logic would be that, with odds on, you have a lower House Edge PERCENTAGE against you for that individual CO roll(s) relative to your total action. It wouldn’t change the monetary expected loss, which is the only thing I would care about if someone asked me.
link to original post

Slippery slope. Someone who bets $25 on pass/come plus 3/4/5 odds has an expected monetary loss that is 75% lower than someone betting only $100 on pass/come…with about the same total betting action**. But if he’s going to superstitiously turn off his odds sometimes then what’s the point of his reallocating the majority of his action to the odds bet in the first place ? I really doubt the $100 bettor reduces his line bet during comeout rolls

**average total bet of $94.44
Last edited by: Ace2 on Oct 2, 2023
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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October 2nd, 2023 at 12:15:14 PM permalink
Is it easier to win 15 PL/Come Bets with odds bets ahead or to win 15 PL/Come Bets without odds bets ahead when betting 2 Come Bets? Is it easier to win $1500 ahead with the $25 line + 3,4,5X odds bets or to win $1500 ahead with $100 line bets with no odds with 2 come bets up at one time allowed for each?
****************************************
Personally I think I'd prefer to bet $60 on the PL with $60 odds then $30 on the 2 Come Bets with $90 odds on each of those. If one of the Come Bets with odds wins, I'd split the bet to two $60 Place Bets on the inside numbers, then do the same if the next Come Bet with odds wins. If the PL point is an inside number, I'll cover the 4 or 10 with the extra bet.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 2, 2023
SOOPOO
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October 2nd, 2023 at 3:20:06 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
link to original post



True though I recall Wizard arguing that since you can’t turn off the come base bet it’s better to keep the odds on to keep the HE on the come out roll minimized. I can see it both ways.
link to original post



I doubt the Wiz said that. An odds bet does not change the HE on the come out roll. As stated, they are two separate bets. The HE on any and all come out rolls is 1.41%. It is zero on all odds bets.
link to original post


Oh, well if you doubt it! lol


https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/odds-bets/

Quote: Wizard of Odds Answer

The player should always leave the odds on regardless of how many come bets are active. When considering the options, looking at the probability of winning alone is not enough. Yes, with one come bet the odds of losing the come bet are greater than winning, however the potential win is greater than potential loss. The reason the player should always leave the odds on are because it is a bet with zero house edge. By turning the odds off the player is making the overall game more heavily weighted towards the bets with a house edge, thus increasing the overall ratio of the expected loss to the total amount bet.



ETA: and another further down that page.



But that must all be wrong, because SOOPOO doubts the Wizard said it.
link to original post



Basically you are proving my point. The Wizard did not say that odds bets lowers the house edge of the pass line bet. Which is all I said. I never said whether he said you should leave the bets on or not. I never said whether he thinks odds bets are a good bet. All I said was that odds bets do not lower the house edge on the pass line bet.

So again, the Wizard did not, and would not, say by placing an odds bet you are changing the house edge of the initial pass line bet.

I’ll tell you what….. how about you and I make a $1 bet?

We will ask the Wizard this simple question

Does adding an odds bet change the house edge on the initial pass line bet? He says yes, you win. He says no, I win ?
Ace2
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October 2nd, 2023 at 3:37:42 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Is it easier to win 15 PL/Come Bets with odds bets ahead or to win 15 PL/Come Bets without odds bets ahead when betting 2 Come Bets? Is it easier to win $1500 ahead with the $25 line + 3,4,5X odds bets or to win $1500 ahead with $100 line bets with no odds with 2 come bets up at one time allowed for each?
****************************************
Personally I think I'd prefer to bet $60 on the PL with $60 odds then $30 on the 2 Come Bets with $90 odds on each of those. If one of the Come Bets with odds wins, I'd split the bet to two $60 Place Bets on the inside numbers, then do the same if the next Come Bet with odds wins. If the PL point is an inside number, I'll cover the 4 or 10 with the extra bet.
link to original post

Not 100% sure I follow the question, but since $25 plus odds has 75% lower edge and 23% higher standard deviation than $100 without odds, the former will be much more likely to achieve any win goal
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
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October 2nd, 2023 at 3:46:48 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
link to original post



True though I recall Wizard arguing that since you can’t turn off the come base bet it’s better to keep the odds on to keep the HE on the come out roll minimized. I can see it both ways.
link to original post



I doubt the Wiz said that. An odds bet does not change the HE on the come out roll. As stated, they are two separate bets. The HE on any and all come out rolls is 1.41%. It is zero on all odds bets.
link to original post


Oh, well if you doubt it! lol


https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/odds-bets/

Quote: Wizard of Odds Answer

The player should always leave the odds on regardless of how many come bets are active. When considering the options, looking at the probability of winning alone is not enough. Yes, with one come bet the odds of losing the come bet are greater than winning, however the potential win is greater than potential loss. The reason the player should always leave the odds on are because it is a bet with zero house edge. By turning the odds off the player is making the overall game more heavily weighted towards the bets with a house edge, thus increasing the overall ratio of the expected loss to the total amount bet.



ETA: and another further down that page.



But that must all be wrong, because SOOPOO doubts the Wizard said it.
link to original post



Basically you are proving my point. The Wizard did not say that odds bets lowers the house edge of the pass line bet. Which is all I said. I never said whether he said you should leave the bets on or not. I never said whether he thinks odds bets are a good bet. All I said was that odds bets do not lower the house edge on the pass line bet.

So again, the Wizard did not, and would not, say by placing an odds bet you are changing the house edge of the initial pass line bet.

I’ll tell you what….. how about you and I make a $1 bet?

We will ask the Wizard this simple question

Does adding an odds bet change the house edge on the initial pass line bet? He says yes, you win. He says no, I win ?
link to original post



Ok Mr Pedantical! I did not read your post the way you are now saying it.

The question was: should I turn off my odds on the come out.

Mission said it makes no difference.

I said “True!” So already you can tell I agree with your lame $1 trick question bet. But I then said the Wizard argues you should keep the odds bet working.

You said: I doubt the Wizard said that. (Here’s where I read your post to mean you doubted the Wizard said the keep the odds bet on).

Here’s a conundrum that’s slightly less trick question for you: if the odds bet has no HE either way, why did the Wizard say you should keep it on? Because it minimizes the overall HE of the total money you are gambling. That’s what I meant when I posted “keep the house edge on the come out roll minimized.”

Because the odds bet does that if you think of HE in % terms of gross amount at risk. Which is apparently how Wiz thinks of it in some sense or he wouldn’t tell you to keep the odds turned on.

Agree or disagree?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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October 2nd, 2023 at 3:51:59 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

[
Basically you are proving my point. The Wizard did not say that odds bets lowers the house edge of the pass line bet. Which is all I said. I never said whether he said you should leave the bets on or not. I never said whether he thinks odds bets are a good bet. All I said was that odds bets do not lower the house edge on the pass line bet.

So again, the Wizard did not, and would not, say by placing an odds bet you are changing the house edge of the initial pass line bet.

I’ll tell you what….. how about you and I make a $1 bet?

We will ask the Wizard this simple question

Does adding an odds bet change the house edge on the initial pass line bet? He says yes, you win. He says no, I win ?
link to original post

You are arguing with yourself. Did someone say that odds bets change the edge on the flat bet?
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
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October 2nd, 2023 at 4:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: SOOPOO

[
Basically you are proving my point. The Wizard did not say that odds bets lowers the house edge of the pass line bet. Which is all I said. I never said whether he said you should leave the bets on or not. I never said whether he thinks odds bets are a good bet. All I said was that odds bets do not lower the house edge on the pass line bet.

So again, the Wizard did not, and would not, say by placing an odds bet you are changing the house edge of the initial pass line bet.

I’ll tell you what….. how about you and I make a $1 bet?

We will ask the Wizard this simple question

Does adding an odds bet change the house edge on the initial pass line bet? He says yes, you win. He says no, I win ?
link to original post

You are arguing with yourself. Did someone say that odds bets change the edge on the flat bet?
link to original post



There are certain folk that have internalized the advice that odds bet has no house edge (true!) therefore it never matters if you bet it or not (false!). And I find it’s hard to get any of them to see it’s more nuanced than that.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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October 2nd, 2023 at 5:01:08 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

On their own, odds have a HE of 0; therefore, it makes no difference.
link to original post



True though I recall Wizard arguing that since you can’t turn off the come base bet it’s better to keep the odds on to keep the HE on the come out roll minimized. I can see it both ways.
link to original post



I doubt the Wiz said that. An odds bet does not change the HE on the come out roll. As stated, they are two separate bets. The HE on any and all come out rolls is 1.41%. It is zero on all odds bets.
link to original post


Oh, well if you doubt it! lol


https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/odds-bets/

Quote: Wizard of Odds Answer

The player should always leave the odds on regardless of how many come bets are active. When considering the options, looking at the probability of winning alone is not enough. Yes, with one come bet the odds of losing the come bet are greater than winning, however the potential win is greater than potential loss. The reason the player should always leave the odds on are because it is a bet with zero house edge. By turning the odds off the player is making the overall game more heavily weighted towards the bets with a house edge, thus increasing the overall ratio of the expected loss to the total amount bet.



ETA: and another further down that page.



But that must all be wrong, because SOOPOO doubts the Wizard said it.
link to original post



Basically you are proving my point. The Wizard did not say that odds bets lowers the house edge of the pass line bet. Which is all I said. I never said whether he said you should leave the bets on or not. I never said whether he thinks odds bets are a good bet. All I said was that odds bets do not lower the house edge on the pass line bet.

So again, the Wizard did not, and would not, say by placing an odds bet you are changing the house edge of the initial pass line bet.

I’ll tell you what….. how about you and I make a $1 bet?

We will ask the Wizard this simple question

Does adding an odds bet change the house edge on the initial pass line bet? He says yes, you win. He says no, I win ?
link to original post



Ok Mr Pedantical! I did not read your post the way you are now saying it.

The question was: should I turn off my odds on the come out.

Mission said it makes no difference.

I said “True!” So already you can tell I agree with your lame $1 trick question bet. But I then said the Wizard argues you should keep the odds bet working.

You said: I doubt the Wizard said that. (Here’s where I read your post to mean you doubted the Wizard said the keep the odds bet on).

Here’s a conundrum that’s slightly less trick question for you: if the odds bet has no HE either way, why did the Wizard say you should keep it on? Because it minimizes the overall HE of the total money you are gambling. That’s what I meant when I posted “keep the house edge on the come out roll minimized.”

Because the odds bet does that if you think of HE in % terms of gross amount at risk. Which is apparently how Wiz thinks of it in some sense or he wouldn’t tell you to keep the odds turned on.

Agree or disagree?
link to original post



I guess we then just have a semantically disagreement.

For what it is worth, when I’m playing I let them turn my odds bets off, as that seems to be the standard way most play.


My point is simply this. You make a pass line bet. You’ve ‘paid’ the house edge to the casino.
No odds bet can change that.

But I of course understand this forum is all about gambling. Once you’ve ‘paid’ for the right to get a ‘free’ odds bet, I agree that it becomes the best bet at the craps table.
unJon
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October 2nd, 2023 at 5:17:50 PM permalink
SOOPOO two quick things:

1) Your semantical disagreement is also with the Wizard.

2) I don’t think it’s just semantical, as I see all the time people making more than a min pass line bet without maximizing odds. I of course refrain from telling them they should shift some of that pass line to more odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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October 2nd, 2023 at 5:42:32 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


For what it is worth, when I’m playing I let them turn my odds bets off, as that seems to be the standard way most play.


My point is simply this. You make a pass line bet. You’ve ‘paid’ the house edge to the casino.
No odds bet can change that.
]

Standard ways of play also include not betting when a don’t pass bettor is shooting and many other examples that are 100% based on superstition/custom and 0% based on math/logic

I’m glad you’ve convinced yourself that odds bets don’t change the edge on the line bet. Everyone else already knew that
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
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October 2nd, 2023 at 6:41:26 PM permalink
Odds bet analogy

Let’s say you drink six beers per night and your local bar has a promotion:

But one beer, get two free.

Buying your normal six and drinking 18 total is way above your limit and is a very bad idea for many reasons. So buy two and get four for free. Yes, you paid regular price for two beers but you got a 67% discount off total regular price.

You should still tip normally though as you are receiving the same amount of service
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
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October 2nd, 2023 at 8:24:33 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Odds bet analogy

Let’s say you drink six beers per night and your local bar has a promotion:

But one beer, get two free.

Buying your normal six and drinking 18 total is way above your limit and is a very bad idea for many reasons. So buy two and get four for free. Yes, you paid regular price for two beers but you got a 67% discount off total regular price.

You should still tip normally though as you are receiving the same amount of service
link to original post



But there’s no HE on the free beers so it doesn’t matter if you drink them or not
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
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October 2nd, 2023 at 10:20:52 PM permalink
Just figuring if I want a 75 bet buy-in at a $20 line bet with $120 odds (6X odds) with 2 Come Bets, I'll need $140 x 3 x 25 = $10,500 just to buy-in. If I skipped the odds bets, I could buy-in for $20 x 3 x 25 = $1,500.
odiousgambit
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October 3rd, 2023 at 3:52:51 AM permalink
Of course if you dig in your heels and refuse to see why anyone bets odds, decline to do so, but want to be a Craps player, you don't last long as a line bets player. You either start playing the middle table bets and the place bets [at the least], or you just quit playing Craps.

Let's put the Newbie at the table convinced the naysayers on odds are right, and also just wants to bet the line and come bets so his bankroll lasts. He wants to play for hours. Between $10 line bets and come bets and probably side-switching Don't Pass bets he comes with a few hundred dollars and actually though bets thousands. Let's say he puts $2000 in action. At 1.4% HE the EV is -$28. If he had added odds bets the EV would not have changed, true. But since the Standard Deviation is so low, around 1%, he has bored himself to death. And also because of that low SD he didn't have too good of a chance to have won, certainly not to have won a lot.

What he can't see is that if you are going to put $2000 in action you have every opportunity to put a portion of that action in bets that have no HE. Alas likely he thinks the idea is that the free odds help you win more money? So instead of keeping his action at $2000 he adds odds bets and now his action is doubled at least, more if he goes max odds. He has not changed the EV and furthermore, the SD has changed completely, and he's experiencing wild swings in bankroll. With a bankroll of a few hundred, these swings are too wild ...

He is almost for sure to be totally confused now. He will become the player the dealers and other players urge him to become, a player who puts a little portion on odds, a little on place bets, a little on middle table bets. The chances he'll become the player who keeps his action at $2000 is nil unless he also backs away from all that time at the table

My point is that this is what I see as far as the typical player. Even if that player has educated himself about the HE on the bets. And my point is we are not educating him by telling him the free odds are pointless, nor is he off on the right foot if he thinks *just adding* the free odds are to help you win more money. Like Unjon says, it's a nuanced thing
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange
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October 3rd, 2023 at 10:58:46 AM permalink
If I average 400 line bets in 6 hours, I might wriggle a +/- 20 bet up or down SD. I don't know the math on this at all really.
Ace2
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October 3rd, 2023 at 11:08:12 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

thousands. Let's say he puts $2000 in action. At 1.4% HE the EV is -$28. If he had added odds bets the EV would not have changed, true. But since the Standard Deviation is so low, around 1%, he has bored himself to death. And also because of that low SD he didn't have too good of a chance to have won, certainly not to have won a lot.
]

The standard deviation of 1 is comparable to baccarat banker/player, even money roulette, and blackjack. The problem is the $10 bet amount. Wager $100 on the line and it won’t be boring for most people

Playing with 3-4-5 odds, the SD is only 1.3 using the average total wager as a base

When you say SD is around 1%, what does that mean ?
It’s all about making that GTA
Mission146
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October 3rd, 2023 at 11:36:00 AM permalink
I'm going to try to chime in with what I hope is the final word on this specific question, though I will admit that it is pretty arrogant of me to say so.

1.) The House Edge on the Pass Line Bet is 1.41% (rounded).

2.) Therefore, if you make a $100 PL Bet, you expect to lose $1.41.

3.) Come Bets (with Odds) have already been made, and have traveled, so the PL Bet HE (which is the same as Come) is actually not relevant to expected loss, at this time.

4.) The new Expected Loss on the Come Bet itself, which has traveled, depends upon the number. 4 & 10 are worse than 5&9 are worse than 6&8.

5.) We will say a Come Bet for $100 has traveled to Four, just as an example, and you take 10x Odds and can leave them working, or not.

(3/9 * 100) - (6/9 * 100) = -33.3333333333333333

6.) Therefore, the Come Bet itself is now expected to lose $33.33, which you can't do anything about.

7.) The question is whether or not you want to leave Odds On during the Come Out Roll.

8.) Of course, "Leaving Odds On," is the same thing as having Odds in the first place, because you can ask for your Odds to come down anytime you wish.

9.) If you leave on a $1,000 Odds bet, the expectation is:

(3/9 * 2000) - (6/9 * 1000) = 0

Because Odds do not have a House Edge.

10.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you turn Odds off:

(3/36 * 100) - (6/36 * 100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

11.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you leave Odds on:

(3/36 * 2100) - (6/36 * 1100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

12.) In either case, your expectation on the following roll is a loss of $8.33; that is why I say it makes no difference.

13.) However, given that you expect to lose $8.33, you can either lose $8.33 of $100 total action, which is an expected loss, per roll, of 8.33%---or, you can have an expected loss of $8.33 on $1100 in total action, which is an expected loss percentage of 0.0075757575454545 or 0.75757575755%.

14.) My position is it doesn't matter because the expected loss on that roll is $8.33, regardless.

15.) Wizard's position is that it does matter because the House Edge, Per Roll, relative to your total action is .75757575755% as opposed to 8.333333333%.

16.) Neither of us are wrong. Both of our statements are valid. For this particular question, we just prioritize different things. I only care about the monetary amount we expect to lose on the roll, which 10,000x Odds can't change.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
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October 3rd, 2023 at 11:39:31 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: odiousgambit

thousands. Let's say he puts $2000 in action. At 1.4% HE the EV is -$28. If he had added odds bets the EV would not have changed, true. But since the Standard Deviation is so low, around 1%, he has bored himself to death. And also because of that low SD he didn't have too good of a chance to have won, certainly not to have won a lot.
]

The standard deviation of 1 is comparable to baccarat banker/player, even money roulette, and blackjack. The problem is the $10 bet amount. Wager $100 on the line and it won’t be boring for most people

OK, that's one way to eliminate the boring, but it gets stupid if the line bet can be made for less

Quote:

Playing with 3-4-5 odds, the SD is only 1.3 using the average total wager as a base

When you say SD is around 1%, what does that mean ?

I made a mistake, it shouldn't have a % symbol. The SD for one bet is "1" [not 1%], which is posted at https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
and has a usefulness when calculating the standard deviaton for a session
Quote:

The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size.



And I have found it is useful for determining how boring it would be to bet only that bet. In fact I find baccarat banker/player, even money roulette, and blackjack without bet size variation to be boring as well.

link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange
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October 3rd, 2023 at 11:57:03 AM permalink
If winning come-out rolls isn't your strong suit but rolling repeaters or making your points are, then adding odds would be a better move. It does look like point numbers are dead bets until they are won though, and what do you win, a few dollars after the rebet? At least the odds payouts are above even money.
odiousgambit
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October 3rd, 2023 at 11:58:44 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Neither of us are wrong. Both of our statements are valid. For this particular question, we just prioritize different things. I only care about the monetary amount we expect to lose on the roll, which 10,000x Odds can't change.
link to original post

Nothing you said is wrong

I like someone's comment that the odds can be turned off, but to do so is going in the direction as not playing the odds at all. So I see it as a withdrawal from the attempt to put a large percent of your total action for a session on 0% HE. Not that I don't always keep them on, the dealers change all the time and you have to "train" each one ... or constantly be on your toes.You definitely don't want an argument about whether they were on or off

The last time I played Craps I practiced what I preached, pre-determining how much I wanted to put in Total Action and maximized the free odds, 0% HE, portion of that action, no strategy would have increased the portion more. The table was $25 min and if I play again at such a table I will do the same thing. However, if it's $10 I'll loosen up, wing it a little, probably keep track of time more than bets. At $15 something in between
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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October 3rd, 2023 at 11:59:46 AM permalink
and you can also just play the darkside and no one turns off the odds for that
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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October 3rd, 2023 at 12:04:31 PM permalink
I also want to be a fly at the table when people I won't name are showing someone how to play. I'll make a side bet that this happens:

Newbie: "Hey should I put down a free odds bet"

Nameless one: "NO! it doesn't affect the expected value!"

Newbie: " how about that Hard 6? Could I do that?"

Nameless one: "yeah, go ahead, lots of fun!"
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
JimRockford
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October 3rd, 2023 at 12:04:45 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'm going to try to chime in with what I hope is the final word on this specific question, though I will admit that it is pretty arrogant of me to say so.

1.) The House Edge on the Pass Line Bet is 1.41% (rounded).

2.) Therefore, if you make a $100 PL Bet, you expect to lose $1.41.

3.) Come Bets (with Odds) have already been made, and have traveled, so the PL Bet HE (which is the same as Come) is actually not relevant to expected loss, at this time.

4.) The new Expected Loss on the Come Bet itself, which has traveled, depends upon the number. 4 & 10 are worse than 5&9 are worse than 6&8.

5.) We will say a Come Bet for $100 has traveled to Four, just as an example, and you take 10x Odds and can leave them working, or not.

(3/9 * 100) - (6/9 * 100) = -33.3333333333333333

6.) Therefore, the Come Bet itself is now expected to lose $33.33, which you can't do anything about.

7.) The question is whether or not you want to leave Odds On during the Come Out Roll.

8.) Of course, "Leaving Odds On," is the same thing as having Odds in the first place, because you can ask for your Odds to come down anytime you wish.

9.) If you leave on a $1,000 Odds bet, the expectation is:

(3/9 * 2000) - (6/9 * 1000) = 0

Because Odds do not have a House Edge.

10.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you turn Odds off:

(3/36 * 100) - (6/36 * 100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

11.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you leave Odds on:

(3/36 * 2100) - (6/36 * 1100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

12.) In either case, your expectation on the following roll is a loss of $8.33; that is why I say it makes no difference.

13.) However, given that you expect to lose $8.33, you can either lose $8.33 of $100 total action, which is an expected loss, per roll, of 8.33%---or, you can have an expected loss of $8.33 on $1100 in total action, which is an expected loss percentage of 0.0075757575454545 or 0.75757575755%.

14.) My position is it doesn't matter because the expected loss on that roll is $8.33, regardless.

15.) Wizard's position is that it does matter because the House Edge, Per Roll, relative to your total action is .75757575755% as opposed to 8.333333333%.

16.) Neither of us are wrong. Both of our statements are valid. For this particular question, we just prioritize different things. I only care about the monetary amount we expect to lose on the roll, which 10,000x Odds can't change.
link to original post



If you only cared about minimizing loss, you wouldn’t be playing craps. The optimal strategy is not to play.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." -- Isaac Newton
Mission146
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October 3rd, 2023 at 12:20:15 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I also want to be a fly at the table when people I won't name are showing someone how to play. I'll make a side bet that this happens:

Newbie: "Hey should I put down a free odds bet"

Nameless one: "NO! it doesn't affect the expected value!"

Newbie: " how about that Hard 6? Could I do that?"

Nameless one: "yeah, go ahead, lots of fun!"
link to original post



Mission: "Look, all I'm saying is that there's no reason to make more bets that are effectively just Pass Line bets than necessary. That's why I don't do continuous come betting. I'll just bet the Pass Line once per hand, thank you."

Person: "Cool. I've got it. So, just the Pass Line bet for now?"

Mission: "Yeah, but it really isn't that big of a deal to throw a buck on the Crap Check. It's almost like not being able to lose on the Come Out roll."

I'm only kind of kidding. I'd make a $5 PL and do a $1 Crap Check, but I'd never advise it. I know exactly what the Crap Check is costing me in EV. I also haven't played Craps at all in probably four or five years. Definitely pre-Covid.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 3rd, 2023 at 12:21:41 PM permalink
Quote: JimRockford



If you only cared about minimizing loss, you wouldn’t be playing craps. The optimal strategy is not to play.
link to original post



True, but I haven't played Craps in years anyway.

Even when I did, I never made Come bets. I guess if what you're saying is the question doesn't actually apply to me, I would say it never has as I have never made Come Bets in the first place.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ace2
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October 3rd, 2023 at 12:27:45 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

[
And I have found it is useful for determining how boring it would be to bet only that bet. In fact I find baccarat banker/player, even money roulette, and blackjack without bet size variation to be boring as well.

link to original post
link to original post

See above. Flat bet $100 on blackjack and it won’t be boring, especially when you have multiple splits and doubles on the table.

I find extreme bet variation to be senseless because your results really just come down to a few big bets. Why even bother with the smaller bets
It’s all about making that GTA
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October 3rd, 2023 at 12:34:45 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If winning come-out rolls isn't your strong suit but rolling repeaters or making your points are, then adding odds would be a better move.
link to original post

How do you evaluate what your “strong suit” is ? How many rolls do you analyze? What techniques are involved? Is racial profiling a factor ? Does the current moon phase play a role ?
It’s all about making that GTA
Mission146
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October 3rd, 2023 at 12:41:06 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: odiousgambit

[
And I have found it is useful for determining how boring it would be to bet only that bet. In fact I find baccarat banker/player, even money roulette, and blackjack without bet size variation to be boring as well.

link to original post
link to original post

See above. Flat bet $100 on blackjack and it won’t be boring, especially when you have multiple splits and doubles on the table.

I find extreme bet variation to be senseless because your results really just come down to a few big bets. Why even bother with the smaller bets
link to original post



I’d need a heck of a good EV reason to bet $100 on anything.

I had to do $25 base bet on Live UTH for an online promo that wasn’t even my money or for me and I almost fainted. Lol. I don’t like betting big even if I have an advantage.

If all Craps Tables go to $10+ I’ll simply never play again. Not without having a really good reason anyway.

My usual ‘Strategy’ is if I’m ever down money I quit and I quit if I lose two consecutive hands.***

That’s only if I started winning three consecutive hands. If I go win-loss, I quit. That’ll be enough Craps for that year.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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October 3rd, 2023 at 2:11:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ChumpChange

If winning come-out rolls isn't your strong suit but rolling repeaters or making your points are, then adding odds would be a better move.
link to original post

How do you evaluate what your “strong suit” is ? How many rolls do you analyze? What techniques are involved? Is racial profiling a factor ? Does the current moon phase play a role ?
link to original post



Local rollers are like porn, you can’t define it but you know it when you see it.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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October 3rd, 2023 at 5:28:38 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Ace2

Quote: ChumpChange

If winning come-out rolls isn't your strong suit but rolling repeaters or making your points are, then adding odds would be a better move.
link to original post

How do you evaluate what your “strong suit” is ? How many rolls do you analyze? What techniques are involved? Is racial profiling a factor ? Does the current moon phase play a role ?
link to original post



Local rollers are like porn, you can’t define it but you know it when you see it.
link to original post

Just like dice control believers
It’s all about making that GTA
tuttigym
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October 4th, 2023 at 11:43:12 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'm going to try to chime in with what I hope is the final word on this specific question, though I will admit that it is pretty arrogant of me to say so.

1.) The House Edge on the Pass Line Bet is 1.41% (rounded).

2.) Therefore, if you make a $100 PL Bet, you expect to lose $1.41.

3.) Come Bets (with Odds) have already been made, and have traveled, so the PL Bet HE (which is the same as Come) is actually not relevant to expected loss, at this time.

4.) The new Expected Loss on the Come Bet itself, which has traveled, depends upon the number. 4 & 10 are worse than 5&9 are worse than 6&8.

5.) We will say a Come Bet for $100 has traveled to Four, just as an example, and you take 10x Odds and can leave them working, or not.

(3/9 * 100) - (6/9 * 100) = -33.3333333333333333

6.) Therefore, the Come Bet itself is now expected to lose $33.33, which you can't do anything about.

7.) The question is whether or not you want to leave Odds On during the Come Out Roll.

8.) Of course, "Leaving Odds On," is the same thing as having Odds in the first place, because you can ask for your Odds to come down anytime you wish.

9.) If you leave on a $1,000 Odds bet, the expectation is:

(3/9 * 2000) - (6/9 * 1000) = 0

Because Odds do not have a House Edge.

10.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you turn Odds off:

(3/36 * 100) - (6/36 * 100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

11.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you leave Odds on:

(3/36 * 2100) - (6/36 * 1100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

12.) In either case, your expectation on the following roll is a loss of $8.33; that is why I say it makes no difference.

13.) However, given that you expect to lose $8.33, you can either lose $8.33 of $100 total action, which is an expected loss, per roll, of 8.33%---or, you can have an expected loss of $8.33 on $1100 in total action, which is an expected loss percentage of 0.0075757575454545 or 0.75757575755%.

14.) My position is it doesn't matter because the expected loss on that roll is $8.33, regardless.

15.) Wizard's position is that it does matter because the House Edge, Per Roll, relative to your total action is .75757575755% as opposed to 8.333333333%.

16.) Neither of us are wrong. Both of our statements are valid. For this particular question, we just prioritize different things. I only care about the monetary amount we expect to lose on the roll, which 10,000x Odds can't change.
link to original post


There are tens of thousands of folks who play craps. A microscopic number of those talk about EV, HA/HE, standard deviations, or the "math" as displayed above and beyond. Most of those previously mentioned masses play the "establishment" way or the "dark side" way regardless of the "math." I would venture to say that their outcomes are no better or worse than the most avid 'math" devotee.

None of these long-winded, forever math equations have ever been actually performed at the tables in real time.

The fact that some here do not even play the game should give caution to those who might accept the enclosed information.

The game is random. Therefore the "math" is unreliable at best. For the "math" to be truly meaningful, it must be consistently accurate, and random negates virtually all "establishment" craps concepts.

tuttigym
Ace2
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October 4th, 2023 at 1:19:37 PM permalink
Tuttigym,

As always, you just don’t get it.

A sucker making place bets at an average 4% vig has essentially zero chance of beating the casino over the medium/long term. Let’s define that as 10,000 wagers…a daily player could make that many in a month. He will lose over 10x more than the sharp bettor making line bets plus max odds for the same amount of total action. The sharp bettor could feasibly be up on the casino after a lifetime of play because his expected loss % is that small…under half a percent which is extremely close to a fair game.

You imply that a random event can’t be quantified/calculated. You’re 100% wrong about that…it can be accurately predicted at any level of confidence you wish. That’s what probability and statistics are for, and they are a central theme of this forum. Or at least they used to be.
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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October 4th, 2023 at 1:29:30 PM permalink
Copy/pasted from elsewhere:
House Advantage when you take the Odds:

Odds / Pass Line HA
0x / 1.41%
1x / 0.848%
2x / 0.606%
3x / 0.471%
3-4-5X / 0.374%
5x / 0.326%
10x / 0.184%
20x / 0.099%
100x / 0.021%

Low line bet amounts become more irrelevant with higher odds but you still have to make your points.
Mission146
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October 4th, 2023 at 1:36:18 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Mission146

I'm going to try to chime in with what I hope is the final word on this specific question, though I will admit that it is pretty arrogant of me to say so.

1.) The House Edge on the Pass Line Bet is 1.41% (rounded).

2.) Therefore, if you make a $100 PL Bet, you expect to lose $1.41.

3.) Come Bets (with Odds) have already been made, and have traveled, so the PL Bet HE (which is the same as Come) is actually not relevant to expected loss, at this time.

4.) The new Expected Loss on the Come Bet itself, which has traveled, depends upon the number. 4 & 10 are worse than 5&9 are worse than 6&8.

5.) We will say a Come Bet for $100 has traveled to Four, just as an example, and you take 10x Odds and can leave them working, or not.

(3/9 * 100) - (6/9 * 100) = -33.3333333333333333

6.) Therefore, the Come Bet itself is now expected to lose $33.33, which you can't do anything about.

7.) The question is whether or not you want to leave Odds On during the Come Out Roll.

8.) Of course, "Leaving Odds On," is the same thing as having Odds in the first place, because you can ask for your Odds to come down anytime you wish.

9.) If you leave on a $1,000 Odds bet, the expectation is:

(3/9 * 2000) - (6/9 * 1000) = 0

Because Odds do not have a House Edge.

10.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you turn Odds off:

(3/36 * 100) - (6/36 * 100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

11.) For the next roll, or any roll, the following roll's expectation if you leave Odds on:

(3/36 * 2100) - (6/36 * 1100) - (27/36 * 0) = -8.3333333333333333

12.) In either case, your expectation on the following roll is a loss of $8.33; that is why I say it makes no difference.

13.) However, given that you expect to lose $8.33, you can either lose $8.33 of $100 total action, which is an expected loss, per roll, of 8.33%---or, you can have an expected loss of $8.33 on $1100 in total action, which is an expected loss percentage of 0.0075757575454545 or 0.75757575755%.

14.) My position is it doesn't matter because the expected loss on that roll is $8.33, regardless.

15.) Wizard's position is that it does matter because the House Edge, Per Roll, relative to your total action is .75757575755% as opposed to 8.333333333%.

16.) Neither of us are wrong. Both of our statements are valid. For this particular question, we just prioritize different things. I only care about the monetary amount we expect to lose on the roll, which 10,000x Odds can't change.
link to original post


There are tens of thousands of folks who play craps. A microscopic number of those talk about EV, HA/HE, standard deviations, or the "math" as displayed above and beyond. Most of those previously mentioned masses play the "establishment" way or the "dark side" way regardless of the "math." I would venture to say that their outcomes are no better or worse than the most avid 'math" devotee.

None of these long-winded, forever math equations have ever been actually performed at the tables in real time.

The fact that some here do not even play the game should give caution to those who might accept the enclosed information.

The game is random. Therefore the "math" is unreliable at best. For the "math" to be truly meaningful, it must be consistently accurate, and random negates virtually all "establishment" craps concepts.

tuttigym
link to original post



Cool story, bro.

I can think of some other things that I’d like random to negate.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ace2
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October 4th, 2023 at 1:44:15 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Copy/pasted from elsewhere:
House Advantage when you take the Odds:

Odds / Pass Line HA
0x / 1.41%
1x / 0.848%
2x / 0.606%
3x / 0.471%
3-4-5X / 0.374%
5x / 0.326%
10x / 0.184%
20x / 0.099%
100x / 0.021%

Low line bet amounts become more irrelevant with higher odds but you still have to make your points.
link to original post

Which right side bets can you make after a point is established, then not “make your points” and still win ?
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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October 4th, 2023 at 2:19:06 PM permalink
If you're betting $10 PL with $60 odds (10X odds table), you could skip making come bets and make another $60 place bet on the 6 and/or 8 with their low HA of 1.52%.
Ace2
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October 4th, 2023 at 2:51:43 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you're betting $10 PL with $60 odds (10X odds table), you could skip making come bets and make another $60 place bet on the 6 and/or 8 with their low HA of 1.52%.
link to original post

Why make a 1.52% bet when you can make a line + 10x odds bet at 1/8th the cost
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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October 4th, 2023 at 2:54:58 PM permalink
Because I'm throwing 6's and 8's and I can get paid each time instead of on repeaters. It's really disappointing when I hit the 6 six times on one shooter but only get paid 3 times for it because it was a line bet.
daveyandersen1
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October 4th, 2023 at 3:17:34 PM permalink
NO it wasn,t luck....YOU are the best craps player in the world......------------------Seriously?????
daveyandersen1
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Mission146
October 4th, 2023 at 3:22:40 PM permalink
lm refering to that !st Time craps player....
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