Craps Variance
My first $800 disappeared pretty quickly, so I bought in another $800 and that also left. My third $800 buy in I decided to only do $10 with $25 odds and yup, you guessed it, that all went away too. Total playing time maybe 6 hours.
Am I the dumbest dummy there is for continuing to throw money away this long? What is the expected variance as in, what kind of swings should I expect as it averages down to the 1.5 cent loss every come out roll? I feel like I should have been able to last much longer than 6 hours… in the future if I want to play for let’s say 8 hours, what kind of money should I have for the $10 with $50 or the $10 with $25 odds to have a 99% chance of not losing the entire bankroll?
My buy-in session is usually 15 or 25 PL bets. To add odds to that means more buy-in amounts.
NO, not quite that low! more like 14 cents per betQuote: TheguyoverthereI’ve always followed the advice that the Odds bet in craps is a completely free bet in terms of house edge, so I figured I’d buckle in and just play $10 pass with $50 odds on any point.(our table allows up to 100x odds!). Only betting pass with odds, no come or place bets.
My first $800 disappeared pretty quickly, so I bought in another $800 and that also left. My third $800 buy in I decided to only do $10 with $25 odds and yup, you guessed it, that all went away too. Total playing time maybe 6 hours.
Am I the dumbest dummy there is for continuing to throw money away this long? What is the expected variance as in, what kind of swings should I expect as it averages down to the 1.5 cent loss every come out roll?
In your first session you were betting max at 5x odds. That's just about at the point where the variance takes you to another universe. That you responded by lowering the free odds was the right thing to do, but of course there are no guarantees.Quote:I feel like I should have been able to last much longer than 6 hours… in the future if I want to play for let’s say 8 hours, what kind of money should I have for the $10 with $50 or the $10 with $25 odds to have a 99% chance of not losing the entire bankroll?
link to original post
It's a mistake when playing free odds to think about the 14 cent expected loss per bet at all. The variance dominates totally, true enough even at 2.5x odds. You could play a big long session every week for years before you could see the expected loss start to have meaning, even though in the long run it's all that matters. It's the kind of thing the mind can't quite properly process, it's just too long a period of time
We can look at standard deviation to get an answer too. Lets look at 5x odds at at $10 table. You should be experiencing about 30 come out rolls per hour, 240 for 8 hours. On the pass line you’ve bet maybe $2500 at a deviation factor of about 5. Sqrt of former is $50, so one SD is about $2500* while your bankroll is $800. Hmm. To win or lose 3 standard deviations is encountered all the time, that’s $7500. To that you also subtract the expected loss of $35 that comes from the house edge, but you can see why I say, why even think about that.
One thing you can say about Craps is you need a big bankroll to play the smartest way. Otherwise the normal ups and downs mean you face ruin even with normal luck. I think you need to bring at least that $2500 if you want hours and hours of play. I would take it that since you posted about it, and since you like to bring $800, well, $2500 is not an amount of money you can blow off without a care. It's a superstitous thing to say, but I'll say it anyway: the dice love to go after a guy's bankroll if they know losing it hurts**
*rough approximations for rough estimates, plus someone else should check this
**Yes that's perfectly ridiculous statement to make, one that can easily be proved to have no foundation. OK............................ I'm just saying
All Games: Bust: 579 Lost: 51274 Won: 48147
Trying the same with $800 gave :
All Games: Bust: 38362 Lost: 17047 Won: 44591 Rolls of length 42 - 686 were all "bust".
Then $800 but only playing 100 games (i.e. shorter sessions)
All Games: Bust: 15813 Lost: 35810 Won: 48377
This would seem to confirm that $800 isn't enough and a larger bank roll might be better.
A useful benchmark for adequate capitaliztion is three percent of the Buy-In as a maximum initial total for the combined Flat plus Odds. A useful corollary is to be alert to appropriate adjustments as the Rack value rises and falls. An attractive technique is that of increasing only Odds if and only if the Rack value has increased.
a single pass + odds should equal 3% of your bankroll is how I would state that, for $60 that makes $2000Quote: pwcrabb
A useful benchmark for adequate capitaliztion is three percent of the Buy-In as a maximum initial total for the combined Flat plus Odds.
link to original post
I'd say adequate for up to a 2hr session ... with the OP looking for 8 hrs, he's going to have to increase that
if 2.5x odds, single pass + odds = 35, if to equal 3% of bankroll it's 1166.67 or lets say $1200. That might be closer to his comfort level but inadequate for 8hrs
I have to add that if you can go up to 100x odds, it'd be the wrong play to only do 2.5x. Basically, playing craps for 8 hrs is, I dunno what to say, maybe "it's just too much gambling" ... how else can I say that?
This is SO true. This exact situation happened to me when I started playing max odds craps. The variance is a bit shocking in the beginning...sometimes huge swings within sessions and between sessions. Proper bankroll management and proper expectation setting is key. The low house edge IS there, it's just obscured sometimes in the haze of variance.Quote: odiousgambit...In your first session you were betting max at 5x odds. That's just about at the point where the variance takes you to another universe...
It's a mistake when playing free odds to think about the 14 cent expected loss per bet at all. The variance dominates totally, true enough even at 2.5x odds. You could play a big long session every week for years before you could see the expected loss start to have meaning, even though in the long run it's all that matters. It's the kind of thing the mind can't quite properly process, it's just too long a period of time... link to original post
Decide to do $10 don’t pass and one don’t come with between $30-$75 laying odds, laddering up as I lose more. Well wouldn’t ya know the first roller out of the gate I did this on had the longest roll I’d ever seen and I went through $1400.
My only saving grace was I had a nickel each on the All Tall Small and when I was down to my last green chip he hit them all, so ended up breaking even. Why is it, as soon as you bet the don’t all of a sudden the number 7 is just actually impossible lol
With that kind of sensible play on the odds the correct thing to say is - "I've decided that craps just hates me...for the moment".Quote: TheguyoverthereI’ve decided craps just hates me
Decide to do $10 don’t pass and one don’t come with between $30-$75 laying odds, laddering up as I lose more. Well wouldn’t ya know the first roller out of the gate I did this on had the longest roll I’d ever seen and I went through $1400.
My only saving grace was I had a nickel each on the All Tall Small and when I was down to my last green chip he hit them all, so ended up breaking even. Why is it, as soon as you bet the don’t all of a sudden the number 7 is just actually impossible lol
link to original post
