ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 82
  • Posts: 3760
November 23rd, 2022 at 4:09:46 AM permalink
I was rolling 20+ rolls trying to avoid the point of 8 and to 7-out for a DP w/ 3X odds win. Along the way, I hit 2x 11's and 5x 3's in a row. So that's 7x 15:1 payouts I missed. What are the chances of this sequence of rolls? 4/36^7 = 0.1111 ^ 7 = 2.09 e-07, so 0.000000209 or 0.0000209%
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 320
  • Posts: 9046
November 23rd, 2022 at 4:15:37 AM permalink
Well, Chump, I think I will criticize your thinking, but for once can't say it's because you don't know the math

not that I checked your math ... if correct, to answer your question, chances were 1 in 4,784,689

You can't make a bet like that, however, you can only bet one event at a time. Does that tell you why I'm critical?
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 82
  • Posts: 3760
November 23rd, 2022 at 4:26:30 AM permalink
I get a slightly different result of 1 in 4,782,969.

I could make a progression to bet the Horn numbers, but it might work better at a table when I've got my DI working for me and table limits aren't so low as on a BC machine. I've got to be further ahead to be making side bets like that though.

I'd put $4 on the Horn and $1 on the 3,11 each so each payout is $25 on a win. My progression would be $6, $12, $24, $48, $90, $180, $300, $300 for a $500 max table with a $1250 payout at the top bets. There's about a 1 in 280,000 chance of hitting 7 horn numbers in a row.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 23, 2022

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