How I Bet Craps Wrong
September 5th, 2022 at 8:30:55 AM
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Odiousgambit the only hedge is on the initial comeout where there is a passline bet, horn, ATS and a big red bet that onebok makes.
There is no hedge on the place bets and those bets need not be made.
There is no hedge on the place bets and those bets need not be made.
September 5th, 2022 at 10:46:42 AM
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Wrong again. The $25 flat bettor will lose 2.5x as much as the $10 flat bettor over the long run...regardless of odds. We are talking about the long run (the OP was about someone's results over 19 years). We should always be thinking of the long term since none of us are going to make one more bet and then quit the game forever.Quote: AlanMendelson
I never said it affected the math of the game. But if the point of 8 loses and you bet $10 flat with 10X odds ($110 bet) and I bet $25 flat with $10 odds ($35 bet) I'm going to lose less money than you.
By your logic, a $25 bet on Big Red is better than both aforementioned options because if it loses, it's only a $25 loss. Less than $35 and $110. Who cares that it has a 16.7% edge
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 10:57:31 AM
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Ace2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
I care about my $300 buy in.
September 5th, 2022 at 11:04:44 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonAce2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
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Therein lies the root of your problem, Alan: ignoring the math in favor of magical thinking.
But we've tried to pound this fundamental truth into your noggin for decades without success.
You want to win at negative expectation games (as a non-AP)?
Your best chance is by making bets with the lowest house advantage and hoping for favorable variance.
But if what you crave is stimulation as opposed to grinding out a small win over time, go for it: no doubt you've experienced a wide variety of emotions playing the way you do.
"What, me worry?"
September 5th, 2022 at 11:11:14 AM
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Quote: MrVQuote: AlanMendelsonAce2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
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Therein lies the root of your problem, Alan: ignoring the math in favor of magical thinking.
But we've tried to pound this fundamental truth into your noggin for decades without success.
You want to win at negative expectation games (as a non-AP)?
Your best chance is by making bets with the lowest house advantage and hoping for favorable variance.
But if what you crave is stimulation as opposed to grinding out a small win over time, go for it: no doubt you've experienced a wide variety of emotions playing the way you do.
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But my actual play in the here and now is not magical thinking.
On the contrary, thinking that your bet results will mimic the long term is what's magical and fanciful.
Quote: MrVI am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.
September 5th, 2022 at 11:33:53 AM
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I’d like to remind everyone that, other than APs, we play for fun, entertainment, and the chance to win.
If it were exclusively about the math and long term, we would never even enter a casino.
If it were exclusively about the math and long term, we would never even enter a casino.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
September 5th, 2022 at 11:46:13 AM
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Well said.Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't give a damn about the long term.
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Those of us who understand basic math realize that what happens in the next hour is just noise. But after just one week of play, the superstitious guy making 15% edge bets will lose a ton more money than the sharp guy making low edge bets. For sucker bets, "long term" isn't very long at all
I get it though...you don't think beyond the next five minutes. And you believe you can somehow control the outcome by making weird bet combinations and "hedges"
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 12:05:11 PM
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Two questions MrV:
1. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAY" in craps.
2. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAYER" in craps.
tuttigym
1. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAY" in craps.
2. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAYER" in craps.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 12:10:23 PM
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Quote: Ace2Well said.Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't give a damn about the long term.
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Those of us who understand basic math realize that what happens in the next hour is just noise. But after just one week of play, the superstitious guy making 15% edge bets will lose a ton more money than the sharp guy making low edge bets. For sucker bets, "long term" isn't very long at all
I get it though...you don't think beyond the next five minutes. And you believe you can somehow control the outcome by making weird bet combinations and "hedges"
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"Basic math" is 4th grade arithmetic. Your math can only be accomplished by computer simulations, and the "long term"? You have no idea what that really is or means.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 12:15:49 PM
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Quote: Ace2And you believe you can somehow control the outcome by making weird bet combinations and "hedges"
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This is another of your bad jokes, right?
You don't seriously mean this, right?
You're just kidding when you indicate that laying a point when you have a passline bet isn't a valid hedge, right?
Or are you finally admitting you really don't play craps?
