AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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September 4th, 2022 at 9:59:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: MrV

I am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.

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Have you thought about non optimum play?
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I'll think about it for a minute.

If someone lost $63,000 over a two-decade period playing DP with full odds (0.27% edge), they would have lost $4.7 million wagering the same amount on bets with a 20% edge (74 times higher).

A loss of $4.7 million sounds non-optimal compared to $63k

If someone is comfortable losing millions when he could have had just as much fun losing thousands, then good for him. But he should not deny that his irrational, superstitious style of play costs him millions
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No. You're extrapolating the same play using a larger percentage rate.

Non optimum play may mean betting differently than what he's been using.

Sometimes you might bet less using a bet that has a higher house edge and in the end lose less or possibly win.

It's not always apples to bigger apples. It could be apples to grapes.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
DJTeddyBear
September 4th, 2022 at 10:26:37 PM permalink
For all my critics I just want to remind you about something I wrote in the first paragraph of my original post about my betting:

Quote: AlanMendelson

keeps me playing longer for less money.

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Again thanks to DJteddybear who offered an alternative that I'm going to try.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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September 4th, 2022 at 10:37:52 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


Sometimes you might bet less using a bet that has a higher house edge and in the end lose less or possibly win.
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Here's another blatant example of your math-denial. Bets with higher edge will lose more money "in the end". Every bet on the table will be a net loser "in the end". That's not debatable.

And I think I know what you're referring to: making/varying your bets based on feelings and superstitions. Totally fine if you want to play like that but don't pretend you have any effect on the math of the game,
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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September 4th, 2022 at 11:10:31 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson


Sometimes you might bet less using a bet that has a higher house edge and in the end lose less or possibly win.
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Here's another blatant example of your math-denial. Bets with higher edge will lose more money "in the end". Every bet on the table will be a net loser "in the end". That's not debatable.

And I think I know what you're referring to: making/varying your bets based on feelings and superstitions. Totally fine if you want to play like that but don't pretend you have any effect on the math of the game,
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I never said it affected the math of the game. But if the point of 8 loses and you bet $10 flat with 10X odds ($110 bet) and I bet $25 flat with $10 odds ($35 bet) I'm going to lose less money than you.

That's not changing the math, that's just reality. The reality is betting more odds to "bring down the house edge" only "works" when a winner is thrown.

Meanwhile, betting small on bets with big payouts (All Tall Small) gives you a shot at a big payday without betting big. While I don't hit the ALL every day I get a lot of pays for the small or the tall at $155 for $5 bet and that is not a one roll bet hopping a hard way. .

Your math is secure. What I do is not an attempt to change it.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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September 5th, 2022 at 1:15:18 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Placing a craps bet is a train trip to loserville.

I edited that for you.

There is nothing wrong with -EV gambling entertainment.
________________________________________________
Unless someone is set on playing x amount of time before they stop, it really doesn't matter if they are playing a -1% game or a -10% game. They are going to end up losing the same amount. At -1% it's just going to take them longer to lose compared to paying at -10%.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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September 5th, 2022 at 1:30:40 AM permalink
Keep me away from ATS tables. I just hit the PL for 12 times in one shooter tonight!
Seems these ATS side bets and come bets are designed to keep you from rolling a come-out 7 after the point gets made.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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September 5th, 2022 at 1:31:27 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: MrV

Placing a craps bet is a train trip to loserville.

I edited that for you.

There is nothing wrong with -EV gambling entertainment.
________________________________________________
Unless someone is set on playing x amount of time before they stop, it really doesn't matter if they are playing a -1% game or a -10% game. They are going to end up losing the same amount. At -1% it's just going to take them longer to lose compared to paying at -10%.
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Axel you are absolutely right. Craps is a negative expectation game. And this devotion to optimum strategy and maximizing odds to bring down the house edge only insures the negative expectation.

Yes. It should be played for entertainment. And I'm going to go further and say it should be played for entertainment with the lowest outlay of money.
onebok
onebok
Joined: Mar 31, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
AlanMendelson
September 5th, 2022 at 6:07:57 AM permalink
Since there's only 25 min bets at my local craps venues, when I am the shooter,
I bet 5/5/5 on the All/Tall/Small, 5 on Red, 5 on Anycraps, and 25 Passline.
(The casinos here only allow 5$ units in the prop bets so horns are 20, world 25,
15 for all 3 sevens, etc.)

If I roll 7, the Red wins 20$ and covers the Anycraps and ATS bets.
The PL win covers half of the initial outlay of 50$.

If 2,3,12, it covers my PL bet, the Anycraps and Red, and gained a more
difficult "junk" number towards ATS.

If 11, I can rebet the anycraps and Red and gained 15$ against initial outlay.

If I roll another 7, I decide whether to replace anything but the Anycraps bet.

At this point I have paid for the initial outlay but know that if the trend is
cold, people being difficult, etc, I'll forego replacing the ATS and Red.
I'll play two come bets with no odds and reassess whether to venture anything
more at that time. I know that these choices are abysmal from an -EV
perspective but have found after much experience that it allows me to play
longer without needing anywhere near the bankroll that most craps gamblers
bring to the table. I will not bring more than I am willing to lose for my
session bankroll, which any math guy would say is woefully inadequate.

Perhaps like Alan, I think that those that play with rather limited bankrolls
may find that using well-chosen but mathematically non-optimal bets and waiting
for an initial outlay to be recouped to some extent often allows for
a longer session and time to benefit from a better short-term positive
table-trend.

IMHO there are nuances to non-optimal betting that are made because the math
does not always benefit those with short bankrolls and timeframes.
I, for one, appreciate the knowledge of the math guys and the betting choices
they recommend. I will use these choices at times when I think I can afford it.
But I also like to hear how some people bet when they are challenged for
some reason and there is some rationale that is behind it. If the rationale is
idiotic it deserves criticism. Keep it civil and both sides may benefit.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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September 5th, 2022 at 6:20:59 AM permalink
Thank you for your post onebok.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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September 5th, 2022 at 8:02:00 AM permalink
Quote: onebok

[snip] I will use these choices at times when I think I can afford it.
But I also like to hear how some people bet when they are challenged for
some reason and there is some rationale that is behind it. If the rationale is
idiotic it deserves criticism. Keep it civil and both sides may benefit.
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I won't say 'idiotic' when it comes to hedging in non-line-high-variance Craps bets, though you might question exactly what you are doing. It's optional to make these bets, that's #1. It makes no sense to me to put, say, $109 in action with a bunch of hedging included when you could simply not make all those bets all at once. Plus, there are bets that you can make outside of the line bet that are reasonable in HE and much lower in variance than others, such as placing the 6 and 8 ... 1.52% HE and SD of 1.08 for those. Of course I recommend the free odds bets to get more action, but I can't deny the variance is high, too high for some esp. going max on those. 

But do it your way as long as you know what you are doing. I see that word 'cover' again. One -EV bet does not "cover", ever, another -EV bet, it only guarantees the house a profit on each bet combination to the degree they are in opposition as to what wins and loses. 

And I see that business of looking at outcomes without factoring probability. Now I realize we often do some extended number crunching to show this, but an easy math exercise is to calculate the EV of each of your bets and just add them. The EV of the total bet is the EV of each bet added up to one sum. You can look up the HE.

Quote:

I bet 5/5/5 on the All/Tall/Small, 5 on Red, 5 on Anycraps, and 25 Passline

Unfortunately the ATS bet has been calculated for HE as a bet but I can't find it 'per roll'. So that means we will have to look at the total bet EV as if you never add another bet, or pick one up if you can do that on the ATS. I'm sure no one ever does on that. 

$15 on ATS has varying HE, but let's say they are all the lowest, 18.3%. You just multiply, anyone can do this and get -$2.74

$5 on Big Red is a one roll bet that costs 16.67%, -83 cents 

$25 on the passline is a contract and costs 1.4% , -35 cents

So making these bets costs $3.92. Gives the house nearly $4 every time you make them. You might protest that you aren't making these bets sequentially, but all at once and are using the opposition of resolving to 'cover'. So how much does that help? On the HE the house has, zero, zada, zilch. Making an additional hedging bet adds the EV for that bet, is all it does. That and the effect on the variance, which is not house edge. 

The psychology of the betting is not tuned to losing the the excessive amount due to HE of the sucker bets, but does wince at the variance. So the idea of hedging comes into play, and is very prevalent in Craps. The house, you have to note, does not object to the hedging, it helps them not in HE, but in having the low variance for them too while sacrificing nothing. What they would like to object to is seeing you wise up and switch to free odds and lower HE place bets to get some action outside of the line bets ... but they can do nothing but turn the dealers into barkers for the middle table bets. You going for that?

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 

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