Why Does a Place Bet on 6/8 Pay 7:6?
Tuttigym: here's how your bet will work out over time. Assuming 100 dice rolls per hour, you will get about 30 decisions on the place 8 bet in one hour. Your expectation is to lose 30 * $30 * 1/66 = $13.64. Compare that to a $8 passline bet with 3-4-5 odds, for which the average total bet will be about $30. That bet will also have about 30 resolutions per hour and the expected loss is 30 * 8 * 7/495 = $3.40. So, for the same amount of action, you will lose about four times as much as the passline bettor! This is not pennies, we are talking about a ginormous difference. At my level of play, I couldn't afford to go to Vegas regularly if my average loss was 4x what is currently is, and I really doubt I'd want to go at all if I was constantly losing my a$$.Quote: Ace2I envision the scenario as: I make a $15 PL bet, and the next rolls are 11,7,7,11, 6, 8, 6. I always play 3-4-5 odds so I win a total of $165 vs your $35. And since I play at a significantly higher level, probably more like a $1000 win for me vs your $35Quote: tuttigym
The young man went to his local casino, bought in, and started his session. It was a $15 table. The shooter tossed a 6 for the established point. The young man, prior to coming out, put $15 on the PL, but was cautious and put $15 odds down. Tuttigym was also at the table, and after the point was established made a $30 PB on the 8. The shooter immediately tossed an 8, and the dealer paid tuttigym $35, very nice. The shooter than tossed a 6. Whoopeee!! Winner, winner, chicken dinner cried the dealer. The young man was very happy, but the dealer only paid him $15 for PL bet and $18 for his odds bet for a total of $33. Whoa, how can that be. The young man was truly puzzled. Tuttigym made $2 more for the same wager which for all intense and purposes beat the HE and the SD.
link to original post
Sorry to break out my 4th grade arithmetic for this answer, and the math used is about at that level. I know you have a deep distrust of all math no matter how basic
In my case I'd be comparing a $12 PL bet with a $12 PB 6 or 8. I'd use the same progression on each. The HA is similar enough between the two. I can rack up a few come-out wins on the PL potentially. I can hit my PB 6 or 8 repeatedly without a come-out roll on a Come bet. First one to win 8 in a row hits the maximum bet that's 10X the original bet, and the HA goes up similarly.
It's possible to run a progression on the odds wins, but getting more than 2-3 points per shooter is Hot Shooter territory, so it's rarely worth it. I could just add a $10/$12 odds bet so I feel an extra oomph from winning a PL point.
Crapless goes back to Stupak, 50 years ago or so. It has recently exploded in Vegas at least 20 tables and growing.Quote: DJTeddyBearHistory.Quote: DeMangoSo how does this translate to $10 place bets on 3&11 paying $27 and $10 place bets on 2 & 12 paying $55? (Using put bets)
link to original post
Placing the horn numbers is only offered on Crapless Craps - which is a relatively new invention.
link to original post
It cannot tell you how to win.
I call that a misapplication of resources.
Quote: Ace2Apparently you missed my post from a few hours ago where I show how I win $1000 on a passline bet plus odds vs your $35 winnings by placing the 8
link to original post
You know what, I did miss that one. Suppose you break it out for us all again or show the link. It is tourist season now, and they need every break imaginable. You know they are reading every word and committing it all to memory. Armed with that information, you should have no fear playing alongside those folks because they will have had your tutelage and could never disrupt your vibe or flow.
tuttigym
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat I love about this discussion is that the math tells you only how much you will lose playing craps.
It cannot tell you how to win.
I call that a misapplication of resources.
link to original post
Funny. That’s the stated purpose of the Wizard. Using math to minimize losses if one must gamble for entertainment.
****************************************
I stand corrected on how to play all the box numbers. Whack-A-Mole System from Casino Quest
Turning $360 to $3685 - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vglkoE9GnA4
Quote: unJonI have trouble taking your posts seriously. Of course there are series of rolls where a PB outperforms a PL with odds bet. I’ve never said otherwise.
Read my signature line. Sums it all up really.
link to original post
"Of course there are a series of rolls where the PB outperforms a PL with odds bet"? Really, I mean really? Perhaps you can point us all in that direction, if not, I will keep this post for posterity to remind everyone of your possible conversion to the real math.
You know what? Your "serious posts" look like you are shilling for the house. Your, feet planted in cement position on the PL + odds with no HA on the odds, is just flat out wrong. Try this one; do the math for everyone; explain the zero HA to us all: $15 table; shooter establishes the 10 for the point; unJon, who has bet the PL for $15 now adds 3X odds or $45; tuttigym, playing at the same table, does not play the PL but after the point is established PB the 10 for $60, the amount equal to unJon's total wager; shooter converts the 10 point. (1) How much did unJon win on his PL+odds? (2) How much did tuttigym win on his PB? (3) What is the approximate percentage unJon lost in relation to tuttigym's win? (4) Explain again how the odds bet has NO HA in this situation.
tuttigym
Quote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonWhat I love about this discussion is that the math tells you only how much you will lose playing craps.
It cannot tell you how to win.
I call that a misapplication of resources.
link to original post
Funny. That’s the stated purpose of the Wizard. Using math to minimize losses if one must gamble for entertainment.
link to original post
Perhaps there could be a "recalibration" showing how similar amounts of wagers would result in higher returns on the same number.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2I envision the scenario as: I make a $15 PL bet, and the next rolls are 11,7,7,11, 6, 8, 6. I always play 3-4-5 odds so I win a total of $165 vs your $35. And since I play at a significantly higher level, probably more like a $1000 win for me vs your $35Quote: tuttigym
The young man went to his local casino, bought in, and started his session. It was a $15 table. The shooter tossed a 6 for the established point. The young man, prior to coming out, put $15 on the PL, but was cautious and put $15 odds down. Tuttigym was also at the table, and after the point was established made a $30 PB on the 8. The shooter immediately tossed an 8, and the dealer paid tuttigym $35, very nice. The shooter than tossed a 6. Whoopeee!! Winner, winner, chicken dinner cried the dealer. The young man was very happy, but the dealer only paid him $15 for PL bet and $18 for his odds bet for a total of $33. Whoa, how can that be. The young man was truly puzzled. Tuttigym made $2 more for the same wager which for all intense and purposes beat the HE and the SD.
link to original post
Wow that is quite a "vision." And that happens how often? BTW, I am sure it can happen, but reliance on such an outcome vs the number of times a 7 out might occur is not very prudent. The actual losses could be staggering. If I were unJon or you, I might be tempted to move the goal posts on that one and point out that several consecutive 7 outs after you placed your 5X odds would deplete your bankroll to bankruptcy, but I would never do that.
tuttigym
If he bet $10 on the PL with $40 odds on the 5/9, the total bet would be $50 and the payout would be $70 (3X, 4X, 5X tables specialize in 7X PL bet payouts). A $50 PB 5/9 would pay $70. The HA for the PL is still 14.1 cents but the HA for the PB 5/9 is 4% * $50 = $2, or 14.18X the HA of his PL bet.
If he bet $10 on the PL with $30 odds on the 4/10, the total bet would be $40 and the payout would be $70. A $40 PB 4/10 would pay $72. A $40 Buy 4/10 would pay $78. Now you're being paid more than the PL with odds, but you're still missing PL come-out action which favors the 7-11 over the craps numbers at $10 a bet. The HA on the PL is still 14.1 cents but the HA for the PB 4/10 which pays $72 is 6.67% * $40 = $2.67 which is 18.93X the HA of the PL.
You have to unplug from Place Bets and Buy Bets to lower the HA to PL bets with full odds.
Stupak’s Vegas World opened in 1979. Yeah, almost 50 years. Which is still ‘relatively’ new compared to to when place bets were introduced. Of course, I’m not entirely sure when that was, but believe it to be much earlier than that.Quote: DeMangoCrapless goes back to Stupak, 50 years ago or so. It has recently exploded in Vegas at least 20 tables and growing.Quote: DJTeddyBearHistory.Quote: DeMangoSo how does this translate to $10 place bets on 3&11 paying $27 and $10 place bets on 2 & 12 paying $55? (Using put bets)
link to original post
Placing the horn numbers is only offered on Crapless Craps - which is a relatively new invention.
link to original post
link to original post
Quote: ChumpChangeAce 2 would much rather bet $10 on the PL with $50 odds on the 6/8. The total bet is $60, the total payout is $70, which is the same as a $60 PB 6 or 8. The HA on the PL would be 1.41% * $10 = 14.1 cents; the HA on the $60 PB 6 or 8 would be 1.51% * $60 = 90.6 cents or over 6.425X the HA of his PL bet. He can make six $10 PL bets for less HA than one $60 PB 6 or 8 bet.
If he bet $10 on the PL with $40 odds on the 5/9, the total bet would be $50 and the payout would be $70 (3X, 4X, 5X tables specialize in 7X PL bet payouts). A $50 PB 5/9 would pay $70. The HA for the PL is still 14.1 cents but the HA for the PB 5/9 is 4% * $50 = $2, or 14.18X the HA of his PL bet.
If he bet $10 on the PL with $30 odds on the 4/10, the total bet would be $40 and the payout would be $70. A $40 PB 4/10 would pay $72. A $40 Buy 4/10 would pay $78. Now you're being paid more than the PL with odds, but you're still missing PL come-out action which favors the 7-11 over the craps numbers at $10 a bet. The HA on the PL is still 14.1 cents but the HA for the PB 4/10 which pays $72 is 6.67% * $40 = $2.67 which is 18.93X the HA of the PL.
You have to unplug from Place Bets and Buy Bets to lower the HA to PL bets with full odds.
link to original post
Mr.CC: I truly appreciate the post and the effort to create a positive spin on the PL+odds gambit. Your reality conflates a HE that has never been performed except with computer simulations. The opportunity to win a PL bet at come out becomes unrelated to hands where points are established and PBs are put down to be resolved with subsequent tosses of the dice. At that point, PB's of equal value to the PL+odds are at similar risk except that the winning PB outperforms the PL+odds, i.e, the HA for the point winner (PL+odds) is higher because the amount won is less than that of the PB.. They either both win by point conversion or they both lose by a 7 out.
Let me ask, suppose I have a $15 PB on the 6 prior to come out, and I tell the dealer the bet is ON during CO. The shooter throws a 6 (I win $17), then throws a 7 (I lose $15 but the shooter wins $15). My net over the shooter is $2. In the grand scheme of things, it is almost a wash. (I recognize that the PL winners would occur more frequently than my PB 6, but the offset would be close.)
While I see what you believe is a "difference," I am not buying it simply because winning a PL bet at CO is moot when the point is established.
tuttigym
Ace 2 has said he makes hundreds of high money bets and the cumulative HA creeps up on him, but the cumulative HA rises much slower if he keeps to his PL + full odds than if he was betting the PB 6 & 8 in addition to his PL. There's a bit of a head spin over whether needing to repeat a number on line bets is cutting the number of his wins down by a large percentage compared to PB's. He is getting the benefit of come-out rolls to reduce the HA when his PL bets pay even money when the point is won. Adding odds increases the variance so the HA doesn't so early overtake his winning ability. Yeah he could be down an equivalent of 15 PL bets with odds, but it will take a few shooters throwing 3-5 points per shooter to catch up, or he could play the Don't Pass with 6X odds and hope his bad luck doesn't flip.
If Ace 2 is winning $105 per point made with a $15 line bet, and he won 75 of them because he was doing a 3 point Molly, he'd be up $7,875. I couldn't tell you how many line bets he made to get that far. But if he's losing 21.15 cents per line bet, he might not even notice because he won big and tipped the dealer.
If Ace 2 is winning $1050 per point made with a $150 line bet, and he won 75 of them because he was doing a 3 point Molly, he'd be up $78,750. I couldn't tell you how many line bets he made to get that far. But if he's losing $2.12 per line bet, he might not even notice because he won big and tipped the dealer.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2Apparently you missed my post from a few hours ago where I show how I win $1000 on a passline bet plus odds vs your $35 winnings by placing the 8
link to original post
You know what, I did miss that one. Suppose you break it out for us all again or show the link. It is tourist season now, and they need every break imaginable. You know they are reading every word and committing it all to memory. Armed with that information, you should have no fear playing alongside those folks because they will have had your tutelage and could never disrupt your vibe or flow.
tuttigym
link to original post
Why don't you put in the minimal effort required to scroll through this thread and find it. Hint: it's at the bottom of page 3.
Yes, the expectation is for that many eights. But the place8 bet is resolved when either a 8 or 7 is rolled, so we expect 100 * 11/36 = 30.56 decisions in 100 rolls, and of those 30.56 decisions we expect 13.89 to be wins, 16.67 to be lossesQuote: ChumpChangeWouldn't the 8 roll (100/36 = 2.7778 x 5 = 13.8889 times per 100 rolls)?
It's a negative expectation game so, like every other casino game, your expectation is to lose. If you play such a game long enough you will eventually lose all your money.Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat I love about this discussion is that the math tells you only how much you will lose playing craps.
It cannot tell you how to win.
I call that a misapplication of resources.
link to original post
You will have some nice wins but they will more more than offset by losses.
A $2 place bet on 2 would "translate" into a $0.20 put bet with $1.80 on odds and a $4 place bet on 3 would "translate" into a $0.50 put bet with $3.50 on odds, both of which make no sense. It's just a coincidence that the place bets for 5/9 and 6/8 seem to align with put bets plus 3-4-5 odds, and IMO a needless way to confuse new players. You should never make a put bet anyway, which means you should never make a place bet eitherQuote: DeMangoSo how does this translate to $10 place bets on 3&11 paying $27 and $10 place bets on 2 & 12 paying $55? (Using put bets)
link to original post
Quote: Ace2It's a negative expectation game so, like every other casino game, your expectation is to lose. If you play such a game long enough you will eventually lose all your money.Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat I love about this discussion is that the math tells you only how much you will lose playing craps.
It cannot tell you how to win.
I call that a misapplication of resources.
link to original post
You will have some nice wins but they will more more than offset by losses.
link to original post
Yes.
But math can help you win in blackjack and video poker.
Quote: Ace2Yes, the expectation is for that many eights. But the place8 bet is resolved when either a 8 or 7 is rolled, so we expect 100 * 11/36 = 30.56 decisions in 100 rolls, and of those 30.56 decisions we expect 13.89 to be wins, 16.67 to be lossesQuote: ChumpChangeWouldn't the 8 roll (100/36 = 2.7778 x 5 = 13.8889 times per 100 rolls)?
link to original post
So with 360 rolls of the dice, we expect 50 PB 8 winners and 60 PB 8 losers?
50 x $12 x 7/6 = $700 won
60 x $12 = $720 lost
Expected loss of $20 (HA)
But some of those losers are come-out 7's that don't count, or come-out 8's that don't count; so just don't count those come-out rolls.
If these were odds bets, there'd be no loss on odds bets for the HA. For the PL, that's a different story that doesn't have much to do with figuring the HA on PB's.
At 80 rolls per hour on the Bubble Craps, I've got to double my time there and make it 4.5 hours per session to get to 360 rolls per sit-down; and add-on time for all come-out rolls.
Yes, but only theoretically, and more like memorization instead of math. My understanding is that card counting, which is quite difficult to begin with, is nearly impossible to do for very long due to casino heat. And that a human isn't capable of playing video poker perfectly or near perfectly, which would be required to realize the slight positive EV in some games. If either one could be accomplished, it's a very small edge in the player's favor and would take months of perfect play to have any confidence of realizing the positive EV.Quote: AlanMendelson
Yes.
But math can help you win in blackjack and video poker.
link to original post
I've never tried either so I'm going by what I've read
If you leave your place bets off during comeout then that's correct. If I ever made a place bet, and I never would, I'd always have it onQuote: ChumpChange
But some of those losers are come-out 7's that don't count, or come-out 6's that don't count; so just don't count those come-out rolls.
Quote: ChumpChangeIf the come out roll was a 6, and the next roll was a 7, you would both lose $15. But since you kept your 6 ON during the come-out and you claimed your $17, you'd lose your $15 on the 7-out for a $2 profit and the shooter would be down $15 unless they had a $15 Come bet up going for a Molly and then they'd be even, minus the odds on the PL.
That is correct. My mind was racing a bit and my thinking was that there would be two consecutive COs.
I doubt that Mr.Ace2 plays the way ventured above, so to speculate really does not move the conversation.
tuttigym
My favorite strategy is to place the 4 and the 10 for $9 each. I also bet Any Seven for $3 as a hedge against the seven coming first. There is no way to lose with this combination of betsQuote: tuttigymQuote: ChumpChangeIf the come out roll was a 6, and the next roll was a 7, you would both lose $15. But since you kept your 6 ON during the come-out and you claimed your $17, you'd lose your $15 on the 7-out for a $2 profit and the shooter would be down $15 unless they had a $15 Come bet up going for a Molly and then they'd be even, minus the odds on the PL.
That is correct. My mind was racing a bit and my thinking was that there would be two consecutive COs.
I doubt that Mr.Ace2 plays the way ventured above, so to speculate really does not move the conversation.
tuttigym
link to original post
Quote: Ace2My favorite strategy is to place the 4 and the 10 for $9 each. I also bet Any Seven for $3 as a hedge against the seven coming first. There is no way to lose with this combination of betsQuote: tuttigymQuote: ChumpChangeIf the come out roll was a 6, and the next roll was a 7, you would both lose $15. But since you kept your 6 ON during the come-out and you claimed your $17, you'd lose your $15 on the 7-out for a $2 profit and the shooter would be down $15 unless they had a $15 Come bet up going for a Molly and then they'd be even, minus the odds on the PL.
That is correct. My mind was racing a bit and my thinking was that there would be two consecutive COs.
I doubt that Mr.Ace2 plays the way ventured above, so to speculate really does not move the conversation.
tuttigym
link to original post
link to original post
What are the payoffs? I never heard of such a bet and I'm wondering what you lose by not betting $10?
(Assuming of course it's a $5 table.)
Quote: Ace2A win on either number pays $13 to $9.
link to original post
But a win on $10 would pay $18, or $19 with an automatic buy.
You call $9 a good bet?
Quote: Ace2My favorite strategy is to place the 4 and the 10 for $9 each. I also bet Any Seven for $3 as a hedge against the seven coming first. There is no way to lose with this combination of bets
link to original post
Those last two lines make my head hurt.
Best of luck in your endeavours.
Quote: Ace2My favorite strategy is to place the 4 and the 10 for $9 each. I also bet Any Seven for $3 as a hedge against the seven coming first. There is no way to lose with this combination of bets
link to original post
Now you are getting REAL. Getting back to the basics and embracing 1st grade arithmetic and placing all those hours of play and hundreds of rolls along with the algebraic nonsense of SD's and variances. I am glad to see you have thrown all that stuff under the bus. The thousand $ wins PB 6 and such, were of course, your fantasy. Com'on give us some more; can not wait. Oh, and BTW, how about explaining the PB outperforming the PL+odds straight up?
More crickets?
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2My favorite strategy is to place the 4 and the 10 for $9 each. I also bet Any Seven for $3 as a hedge against the seven coming first. There is no way to lose with this combination of bets
link to original post
Now you are getting REAL. Getting back to the basics and embracing 1st grade arithmetic and placing all those hours of play and hundreds of rolls along with the algebraic nonsense of SD's and variances. I am glad to see you have thrown all that stuff under the bus. The thousand $ wins PB 6 and such, were of course, your fantasy. Com'on give us some more; can not wait. Oh, and BTW, how about explaining the PB outperforming the PL+odds straight up?
More crickets?
tuttigym
link to original post
Tuttigym are you having a bad day?
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2My favorite strategy is to place the 4 and the 10 for $9 each. I also bet Any Seven for $3 as a hedge against the seven coming first. There is no way to lose with this combination of bets
link to original post
Now you are getting REAL. Getting back to the basics and embracing 1st grade arithmetic and placing all those hours of play and hundreds of rolls along with the algebraic nonsense of SD's and variances. I am glad to see you have thrown all that stuff under the bus. The thousand $ wins PB 6 and such, were of course, your fantasy. Com'on give us some more; can not wait. Oh, and BTW, how about explaining the PB outperforming the PL+odds straight up?
More crickets?
tuttigym
link to original post
Tuttigym are you having a bad day?
link to original post
Are you inferring that I am going crazy, tearing my hair out, and raging? You should be suspended.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: unJonI have trouble taking your posts seriously. Of course there are series of rolls where a PB outperforms a PL with odds bet. I’ve never said otherwise.
Read my signature line. Sums it all up really.
link to original post
"Of course there are a series of rolls where the PB outperforms a PL with odds bet"? Really, I mean really? Perhaps you can point us all in that direction, if not, I will keep this post for posterity to remind everyone of your possible conversion to the real math.
You know what? Your "serious posts" look like you are shilling for the house. Your, feet planted in cement position on the PL + odds with no HA on the odds, is just flat out wrong. Try this one; do the math for everyone; explain the zero HA to us all: $15 table; shooter establishes the 10 for the point; unJon, who has bet the PL for $15 now adds 3X odds or $45; tuttigym, playing at the same table, does not play the PL but after the point is established PB the 10 for $60, the amount equal to unJon's total wager; shooter converts the 10 point. (1) How much did unJon win on his PL+odds? (2) How much did tuttigym win on his PB? (3) What is the approximate percentage unJon lost in relation to tuttigym's win? (4) Explain again how the odds bet has NO HA in this situation.
tuttigym
link to original post
I don’t disagree with you. But you’re ignoring the come out roll where the PL makes money more often than loses money. When you factor that in, what does your arithmetic say does better between PL with odds vs PB?
Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: unJonI have trouble taking your posts seriously. Of course there are series of rolls where a PB outperforms a PL with odds bet. I’ve never said otherwise.
Read my signature line. Sums it all up really.
link to original post
"Of course there are a series of rolls where the PB outperforms a PL with odds bet"? Really, I mean really? Perhaps you can point us all in that direction, if not, I will keep this post for posterity to remind everyone of your possible conversion to the real math.
You know what? Your "serious posts" look like you are shilling for the house. Your, feet planted in cement position on the PL + odds with no HA on the odds, is just flat out wrong. Try this one; do the math for everyone; explain the zero HA to us all: $15 table; shooter establishes the 10 for the point; unJon, who has bet the PL for $15 now adds 3X odds or $45; tuttigym, playing at the same table, does not play the PL but after the point is established PB the 10 for $60, the amount equal to unJon's total wager; shooter converts the 10 point. (1) How much did unJon win on his PL+odds? (2) How much did tuttigym win on his PB? (3) What is the approximate percentage unJon lost in relation to tuttigym's win? (4) Explain again how the odds bet has NO HA in this situation.
tuttigym
link to original post
I don’t disagree with you. But you’re ignoring the come out roll where the PL makes money more often than loses money. When you factor that in, what does your arithmetic say does better between PL with odds vs PB?
link to original post
I truly appreciate your acknowledgement which in light of so much dissent shows great courage against the trend which believes the opposite. I too agree that the PL bet wins more often than looses on the CO roll where it enjoys a two to one advantage. My basic position is that the PL wager is an optional bet if one does not hold the dice and therefore can be eliminated from play if one chooses to do so. Basic craps arithmetic shows that after the point is established the PL bet creates a definitive house advantage simply because there are more ways to 7 out than to convert any point for a "winner." I believe you yourself had stated that there is a 20% overall advantage to the house after point establishment in general. I look at the PL+odds combo as an enticement or trap where a player might win occasionally, with the minimal exception, of multiple point conversions otherwise known as the "hot" shooter, while most likely getting slammed by consecutive 7 outs which will deplete the bankroll much faster and more often than walking away a big winner. I am pretty confident that your personal experiences witnessing and participating, in general, can verify this statement.
I hope this answers your question. If I have not been clear, let me know, and I will do better.
tuttigym
Yes a PB 6/8 hits more often then a PB 5/9 or a PB 4/10. If you were betting those numbers other than 6/8, you'd see they don't hit as often and if they were PL points they too would lose more often. If you don't like to lose more than one or two bets per shooter, avoid the PL and stick to the PB 6/8. But don't ask Ace2 to follow your lead, his math is solid as can be.
If it takes 6 rolls to roll a 7; 7.x rolls to roll a 6; 9 rolls to roll a 5; and 12 rolls to roll a 4, you can see how the 7-out is favored no matter the bet. You just have to roll your point be it Pass Line or Place Bet before the 7-out.
I found a statistic chart of my results on WinCraps. The first one is for Pass Line bets and the second one is for Pass Line Odds. There's fewer odds bets, and a lot more lost odds bets. The come-out rolls lowers the losing rate on Pass Line bets. The odds bets fend for themselves with increased payouts on each number. It looks like the PL is losing at a rate of 3% and the odds bets are losing at a rate of 20% (which is the loss rate on a PB 5/9 or a point of 5/9). Yeah line bets look like dead meat once they become a point, but the odds bets aren't because they pay true odds.
I'm up 1.3% on the Pass Line instead of down 1.41% because of a long lucky streak with progressions of some sort. I'm up 4.75% on odds bets instead of even for similar reasons. I believe I was coming back from over a million dollars behind and ended the overnight session over half a million dollars ahead, so I was betting very high, because how did I dig a hole of over a million dollars in the first place?!?
Quote: ChumpChangePlace bets get slammed by 7-outs just as often as PL bets, and at the same time. I fail to see the trap except for repeating a number.
That is correct. I did not suggest that PB win more often than PL bets only that they outperform the combo of PL+odds in payouts straight up.
Quote: ChumpChangeBut don't ask Ace2 to follow your lead, his math is solid as can be.
I did NOT ask Mr Ace to do anything. I asked him to explain why the PB of equal wagers to the PL+odds combo outperforms straight up in $$$ received for the win.
Quote: Chump ChangeIf it takes 6 rolls to roll a 7; 7.x rolls to roll a 6; 9 rolls to roll a 5; and 12 rolls to roll a 4, you can see how the 7-out is favored no matter the bet. You just have to roll your point be it Pass Line or Place Bet before the 7-out.
That is basic craps, so no argument here.
Quote: Chump ChangeI found a statistic chart of my results on WinCraps. The first one is for Pass Line bets and the second one is for Pass Line Odds. There's fewer odds bets, and a lot more lost odds bets. The come-out rolls lowers the losing rate on Pass Line bets. The odds bets fend for themselves with increased payouts on each number. It looks like the PL is losing at a rate of 3% and the odds bets are losing at a rate of 20% (which is the loss rate on a PB 5/9 or a point of 5/9). Yeah line bets look like dead meat once they become a point, but the odds bets aren't because they pay true odds.
This paragraph and analysis is one big contradiction. The PL losing rate at 3% is only because of the CO. The player wins at the rate of one to one, and virtual all craps players bet the table minimum on the PL. If it is such a great bet, why is that? Because it is an overall loser during the course play. To back that up, you state that the odds bet loses 20% of the time, which also means that the PL bet which is attached loses at the exact same rate. You can spin it any way you want, but those are your facts, which BTW I do not dispute. The last sentence is really over the top, IMO. If the line bets look like "dead meat" once they become a point, the odds bet pays nothing when it loses just like the PL bet when it loses; same "dead meat" at a 20% loss ratio you have stated. In other words, if the odds bet paid 10X odds instead of true odds, a 7 out nets the player $0000.
Your computer simulation with WinCraps, for me, is worthless. Until you step away from the bubble craps machine after wagering your real $1million and playing for 8 -12 hours, I might give your simulation some credibility; right now it's all just charts with numbers nothing more.
tuttigym
The difference between the payouts of the odds bets (2:1, 3:2 and 6:5) and the Place Bets payouts of (9:5, 7:5 and 7:6) is the House Advantage we've been telling you about concerning Place Bets. If you don't believe in House Advantage period, a mod should make a decision about your participation here because it is absolute trolling.
Quote: ChumpChangeThe odds bets pay more than Place Bets. The odds bets are a separate bet from the Pass Line, or else the odds bets might have won on the come-out rolls.
link to original post
More spin; the odds bet can only win if the PL bet wins. It is only separate because the rules of the game will not allow one to make an odds bet prior to CO. Unlike the PB which a player can "turn on" prior to CO and be paid if the number bet is thrown or lose if a 7 is tossed. A player CANNOT "turn off" an odds bet during play, but he can remove the bet during a hand if he chooses, but why would he do that?
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: unJonI have trouble taking your posts seriously. Of course there are series of rolls where a PB outperforms a PL with odds bet. I’ve never said otherwise.
Read my signature line. Sums it all up really.
link to original post
"Of course there are a series of rolls where the PB outperforms a PL with odds bet"? Really, I mean really? Perhaps you can point us all in that direction, if not, I will keep this post for posterity to remind everyone of your possible conversion to the real math.
You know what? Your "serious posts" look like you are shilling for the house. Your, feet planted in cement position on the PL + odds with no HA on the odds, is just flat out wrong. Try this one; do the math for everyone; explain the zero HA to us all: $15 table; shooter establishes the 10 for the point; unJon, who has bet the PL for $15 now adds 3X odds or $45; tuttigym, playing at the same table, does not play the PL but after the point is established PB the 10 for $60, the amount equal to unJon's total wager; shooter converts the 10 point. (1) How much did unJon win on his PL+odds? (2) How much did tuttigym win on his PB? (3) What is the approximate percentage unJon lost in relation to tuttigym's win? (4) Explain again how the odds bet has NO HA in this situation.
tuttigym
link to original post
I don’t disagree with you. But you’re ignoring the come out roll where the PL makes money more often than loses money. When you factor that in, what does your arithmetic say does better between PL with odds vs PB?
link to original post
I truly appreciate your acknowledgement which in light of so much dissent shows great courage against the trend which believes the opposite. I too agree that the PL bet wins more often than looses on the CO roll where it enjoys a two to one advantage. My basic position is that the PL wager is an optional bet if one does not hold the dice and therefore can be eliminated from play if one chooses to do so. Basic craps arithmetic shows that after the point is established the PL bet creates a definitive house advantage simply because there are more ways to 7 out than to convert any point for a "winner." I believe you yourself had stated that there is a 20% overall advantage to the house after point establishment in general. I look at the PL+odds combo as an enticement or trap where a player might win occasionally, with the minimal exception, of multiple point conversions otherwise known as the "hot" shooter, while most likely getting slammed by consecutive 7 outs which will deplete the bankroll much faster and more often than walking away a big winner. I am pretty confident that your personal experiences witnessing and participating, in general, can verify this statement.
I hope this answers your question. If I have not been clear, let me know, and I will do better.
tuttigym
link to original post
I think we still have a fundamental disagreement.
Where we agree:
1) PL bet is optional except when shooting (right side or dark side).
2) PL bet is a losing bet in the long run.
Where we disagree:
In a few posts you seem to espouse placing a number after a point is established.
If want to gauge how a gambler can expect to do with a certain amount wagered, I can compare say two hypothetical gamblers at a $10 craps table.
Establishment Gambler (EG): Bets just $10 passline with 3/4/5 full odds every roll.
Place Bet Gambler (PBG): Does not bet come out rolls. When a point is established, he places the point. $60 for 6/8. $50 for 5/9. $40 for 4/10.
I think you see where this is going?
After the point is established, EG and PBG do exactly the same on points of 5/6/8/9. PBG wins a little more on 4/10 ($2 more per made point).
But on an average session, EG wins money on come outs (not always, but more often than not). And PBG misses out on that money.
So over time, I expect PBG to lose at a faster rate than EG.
BTW I believe our only disagreement is that you seem to love the PL+odds and I do not. I play probabilities not expected values.
tuttigym
This May be a case of semantics, but…Quote: tuttigymMore spin; the odds bet can only win if the PL bet wins. It is only separate because the rules of the game will not allow one to make an odds bet prior to CO. Unlike the PB which a player can "turn on" prior to CO and be paid if the number bet is thrown or lose if a 7 is tossed. A player CANNOT "turn off" an odds bet during play, but he can remove the bet during a hand if he chooses, but why would he do that?
tuttigym
link to original post
Odds on a come bet CAN be turned off whenever you like, and are automatically off on a come out roll. That’s why the puck is turned over to say off.
While it’s rare for a player to turn them off, more superstitious types will turn them off for one role, for any number of silly reasons. Including dice went off the table, there’s a dealer change, whatever.
Quote: DJTeddyBear
Odds on a come bet CAN be turned off whenever you like, and are automatically off on a come out roll. That’s why the puck is turned over to say off.
While it’s rare for a player to turn them off, more superstitious types will turn them off for one role, for any number of silly reasons. Including dice went off the table, there’s a dealer change, whatever.
link to original post
OK on turning the odds bet off when a hand is in play, but how is there an odds bet on the board after a point resolution for a new CO roll? I have not seen that. One thing that I did not mention is that an odds bet cannot be changed to another number; it is only related to the existing point established, and is limited to whatever the house maximum odds are allowed.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: DJTeddyBear
Odds on a come bet CAN be turned off whenever you like, and are automatically off on a come out roll. That’s why the puck is turned over to say off.
While it’s rare for a player to turn them off, more superstitious types will turn them off for one role, for any number of silly reasons. Including dice went off the table, there’s a dealer change, whatever.
link to original post
OK on turning the odds bet off when a hand is in play, but how is there an odds bet on the board after a point resolution for a new CO roll? I have not seen that. One thing that I did not mention is that an odds bet cannot be changed to another number; it is only related to the existing point established, and is limited to whatever the house maximum odds are allowed.
tuttigym
link to original post
If you have previous come points established on a come out roll, you can keep those odds “on” or “working” during the come out roll.
Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: DJTeddyBear
Odds on a come bet CAN be turned off whenever you like, and are automatically off on a come out roll. That’s why the puck is turned over to say off.
While it’s rare for a player to turn them off, more superstitious types will turn them off for one role, for any number of silly reasons. Including dice went off the table, there’s a dealer change, whatever.
link to original post
OK on turning the odds bet off when a hand is in play, but how is there an odds bet on the board after a point resolution for a new CO roll? I have not seen that. One thing that I did not mention is that an odds bet cannot be changed to another number; it is only related to the existing point established, and is limited to whatever the house maximum odds are allowed.
tuttigym
link to original post
If you have previous come points established on a come out roll, you can keep those odds “on” or “working” during the come out roll.
link to original post
OK, thanks. I was only thinking about the PL+odds. I personally never deal with come bets or their odds, so my mind was closed to those wagers.
tuttigym
