Reevaluating Don’t Strategy

Only playing craps for a few months now, I keep tweaking my Don’t strategy. Although I had some big wins and great win percentages vs loss, the swings are huge.

Currently playing only one number, usually against the point and laying full odds, which is 6X. So normally a $25 DC them back it up laying $150 once the point is established. Because my $150 will only pay either $75, $100 or $125, am I better off just betting $100 on the DC and don’t lay the free odds and just make my profit off the DC getting even money?

The downside is I’m risking more money on the come out as my bet is in a very vulnerable position to lose. Yes, I could hedge my DC with a yo 11 and hop any 7 bet but then that would drive my profit margin down to 3:2. I can also wait to lay the 6X odds at a later point if I think a 7 is coming. FYI I always keep track how many rolls the shooter has rolled w/o a 7, total rolls and how many points has been rolled.

Thoughts?

I think you mean $125, but that's excluding the lopsided come-out disfavor.

$125 x 1.4% = $1.75 loss per bet
$25 x 1.4% = $0.35 loss per bet
If you're having luck with the high odds bets, stick with them.

Quote: ChumpChange

I think you mean $125, but that's excluding the lopsided come-out disfavor.

$125 x 1.4% = $1.75 loss per bet
$25 x 1.4% = $0.35 loss per bet
If you're having luck with the high odds bets, stick with them.
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$125? I either play $25 on the DC and back it up with another $150, so $175 total loss if a point comes up.

Or bet $100 on DC with no lay and only lose $100 if a point is rolled. I would net more money at $25 DC if I lay 6x on the five or six, the net remains same on the four and ten.

Quote: Vegasrider

Only playing craps for a few months now, I keep tweaking my Don’t strategy. Although I had some big wins and great win percentages vs loss, the swings are huge.

Currently playing only one number, usually against the point and laying full odds, which is 6X. So normally a $25 DC them back it up laying $150 once the point is established. Because my $150 will only pay either $75, $100 or $125, am I better off just betting $100 on the DC and don’t lay the free odds and just make my profit

profit? ... dude.

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... off the DC getting even money?

that the darkside odds aren't worth playing because they are lay bets is an old canard ... I hear it from dealers and players both, as if it's why there is a house edge. Yes you will be told to just put the money on the line. Don't listen, it's Complete nonsense.

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The downside is I’m risking more money on the come out as my bet is in a very vulnerable position to lose. Yes, I could hedge my DC with a yo 11 and hop any 7 bet

now you are combining negative expectation bets expecting +EV... dude!

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... but then that would drive my profit margin down to 3:2. I can also wait to lay the 6X odds at a later point if I think a 7 is coming

well if you can crystal-ball that you've got it made

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FYI I always keep track how many rolls the shooter has rolled w/o a 7, total rolls and how many points has been rolled.

Thoughts?
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Well I believe you were the one letting us know you were on a run. Everyone knew it would end, you didn't really think just because it's the darkside no one else knew about it?

Yeah I was on a nice 1-2 month run winning a few thousand a weekend. Now it’s win a 1000 then lose a 1000, pretty much up and down. I did come across a few phenomenal rolls, unfortunately on the wrong end. One night, back to back shooters combined for 78 rolls and 8 points. One shooter downtown hit 5 different points rolling with 50 plus rolls. At that point I was rooting for the 6th different point to come up and half the table get paid off on their 1000:1 fire bet.

I’m still a dark side better, love the Seven Outs, Right Away.

Quote: Vegasrider

Yeah I was on a nice 1-2 month run winning a few thousand a weekend. Now it’s win a 1000 then lose a 1000, pretty much up and down. I did come across a few phenomenal rolls, unfortunately on the wrong end. One night, back to back shooters combined for 78 rolls and 8 points. One shooter downtown hit 5 different points rolling with 50 plus rolls. At that point I was rooting for the 6th different point to come up and half the table get paid off on their 1000:1 fire bet.

I’m still a dark side better, love the Seven Outs, Right Away.
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After a run like that I have to think I'd stick with the darkside for a long time too. I'm also superstitious enough to avoid what I think is the hot shooter and will quit betting the darkside when someone goes on a long roll like that, assuming I started darkside [I never switch sides during a session, also a superstitious thing]. I just say it's best to realize these things are just that - superstitions. There's no point in asking here if a shooter will continue to be hot or cold, as opposed to 'was' hot ... or if a 7-out is 'due' ... or if combinations of bets with a house edge make sense. Or if bets without a house edge actually have one because they pay less than even.

Wanting to hedge is a sign of variance fatigue, and there are other ways to reduce variance.

Quote: Vegasrider

Only playing craps for a few months now, I keep tweaking my Don’t strategy. Although I had some big wins and great win percentages vs loss, the swings are huge.

Currently playing only one number, usually against the point and laying full odds, which is 6X. So normally a $25 DC them back it up laying $150 once the point is established. Because my $150 will only pay either $75, $100 or $125, am I better off just betting $100 on the DC and don’t lay the free odds and just make my profit off the DC getting even money?

The downside is I’m risking more money on the come out as my bet is in a very vulnerable position to lose. Yes, I could hedge my DC with a yo 11 and hop any 7 bet but then that would drive my profit margin down to 3:2. I can also wait to lay the 6X odds at a later point if I think a 7 is coming. FYI I always keep track how many rolls the shooter has rolled w/o a 7, total rolls and how many points has been rolled.

Thoughts?
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While many have some sort of philosophical issue with laying odds, it is your best bet, as it has no house edge.

My advice for any aspiring Don't player is to do not chase losses against any one shooter. Even random rollers can get lucky and hit multiple points in a row. If you lose a bet to a given shooter, wait for the dice to pass.

Best of luck,
Darth

Quote: darthvader

My advice for any aspiring Don't player is to do not chase losses against any one shooter. Even random rollers can get lucky and hit multiple points in a row.
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I even saw a tourist hit a point once. Pure luck, no skill

Quote: Ace2

Quote: darthvader

My advice for any aspiring Don't player is to do not chase losses against any one shooter. Even random rollers can get lucky and hit multiple points in a row.
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I even saw a tourist hit a point once. Pure luck, no skill
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Sometimes even a blind squirrel finds a nut.