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darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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October 10th, 2021 at 10:37:54 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.

All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.

I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
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Definitely double zero. It was a $5 table.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
October 10th, 2021 at 10:42:36 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Wizard be sure to use MY PHOTOS of throwing two dice at Red Rock with the dice coming to rest STACKED. Not only did I give you the dates and times of the event but I also gave you the names of the boxmen.

But wait, there's more!

I sent you a THIRD PHOTO of two dice stacked thrown by another player AGAIN with names, date, time for you to verify.

Now what are the chances ONE SHOOTER could do that twice AND have the confirmation data and photo and then that same player is at the table when A DIFFERENT SHOOTER does it also and again there are photos and supporting data??

What are the odds?
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Some things you can't calculate that easily because you can't know first of all how many times dice have rested stacked like that. And then you'd have to figure that against how many times dice have been rolled, period, in all casinos? How does one calculate that?

For all of these "improbability" equations I think what is missing is how many hands of Baccarat, Blackjack, etc. have been played throughout history, how many rolls of dice, spins of roulette, throughout history. As time goes on any event becomes at least somewhat more probable compared to the sum total of all completed events.

In other words, the chance of some bizarre mutation in a human being is certainly more probable today after all the billions born versus at the beginning of humankind.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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October 10th, 2021 at 10:44:36 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AxelWolf

should you yourself believe?


I don't believe you (are still harassing Alan)

What are the odds against this kind of behavior existing?

I'm witnessing it, but I still don't believe it.
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I probably shouldn't have brought it up in the first place. I actually resistant doing so when Alan first chimed in. At some point, I was like screw this, someone who has made outrageous unbelievable claims(one that was debunked) showing 'support' for outrageous claim makers and wants us to keep an open mind or whatever.

Alan has accused me of trolling him. If that's the case, Alan has been trolling Advantage Players, mathematicians, and me personally for years.
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I wonder if I still would have won the bet for 5K?

My son cleared up that he he did not hit five $4000 but he did confirm five jackpots including at least two $4000 and still had a net loss... and the net loss was the bet.

Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.

For the record I revealed information about Rob Singer who claimed to be the ULTIMATE AP with his unsupported claims about the double up bug.
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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October 10th, 2021 at 10:54:22 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

It has nothing to do with mathsplaining as a cause for the occurrence was identified.


The cause of the unlikely baccarat win streak wasn't identified to the members here for some 4 months.

The incessant mathsplaining and derision of the reporter would have commenced and continued for some months before the cause was identified.

This is what we are witnessing now, unidentified causes for unlikely events prompting harassment and insults directed towards the reporters.
Last edited by: coachbelly on Oct 10, 2021
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear 
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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October 10th, 2021 at 10:55:19 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.

All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.

I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
link to original post



Probability 22 Players in a row 0.4462^22 = 1 in 51,327,433
Probability 32 Reds in a row US Double 0 (18/38)^32 = 1 in 24,230,084,485
Probability 32 Reds in a row EU Single 0 (18/37)^32 = 1 in 10,321,314,386

E &OE
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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October 10th, 2021 at 10:57:23 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Quote: AlanMendelson

Wizard be sure to use MY PHOTOS of throwing two dice at Red Rock with the dice coming to rest STACKED. Not only did I give you the dates and times of the event but I also gave you the names of the boxmen.

But wait, there's more!

I sent you a THIRD PHOTO of two dice stacked thrown by another player AGAIN with names, date, time for you to verify.

Now what are the chances ONE SHOOTER could do that twice AND have the confirmation data and photo and then that same player is at the table when A DIFFERENT SHOOTER does it also and again there are photos and supporting data??

What are the odds?
link to original post


Some things you can't calculate that easily because you can't know first of all how many times dice have rested stacked like that. And then you'd have to figure that against how many times dice have been rolled, period, in all casinos? How does one calculate that?

For all of these "improbability" equations I think what is missing is how many hands of Baccarat, Blackjack, etc. have been played throughout history, how many rolls of dice, spins of roulette, throughout history. As time goes on any event becomes at least somewhat more probable compared to the sum total of all completed events.

In other words, the chance of some bizarre mutation in a human being is certainly more probable today after all the billions born versus at the beginning of humankind.
link to original post



Mdawg I agree. Things can happen as the universe of things happening expands.

But look at the 18 yos this way: the chance of throwing an eleven in craps is one out of 18. Not an outrageous number is it?

And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the next roll.

And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the roll after that... and on the roll after that... and on the roll after that.

ONLY WHEN LOOKING IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR DO THE ODDS BECOME ASTRONOMICAL.

But on each roll it's always 1 out of 18.

Now I'm not a blackjack player, but what are the odds of winning one hand at blackjack?

What are the odds that you'll win the next hand?

I'm guessing the astronomical numbers appear only in the REARVIEW mirror.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:06:15 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



I wonder if I still would have won the bet for 5K?

My son cleared up that he he did not hit five $4000 but he did confirm five jackpots including at least two $4000 and still had a net loss... and the net loss was the bet.
link to original post

Is there something wrong with you??? Seriously, How is that not trolling?

How the heck(A much stronger word is in order) would anyone in their right mind think you should win a bet for something that didn't happen? IT WASN'T EVEN CLOSE to 5 single-line Royals. The only way you win that bet would be with fake documentation.

Nice try, Let's ignore the elephant in the room, you know, the one where you claim you never discussed this here until I did? The exact opposite is true. I never discussed it on the forum until you did.

Did anyone notice how Alan's INCORRECT claim lead at least two people to believe something without a second guess or follow-up? Two people I believe to be smart and logical. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:13:33 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


Mdawg I agree. Things can happen as the universe of things happening expands.

But look at the 18 yos this way: the chance of throwing an eleven in craps is one out of 18. Not an outrageous number is it?

And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the next roll.

And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the roll after that... and on the roll after that... and on the roll after that.

ONLY WHEN LOOKING IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR DO THE ODDS BECOME ASTRONOMICAL.

But on each roll it's always 1 out of 18.

Now I'm not a blackjack player, but what are the odds of winning one hand at blackjack?

What are the odds that you'll win the next hand?

I'm guessing the astronomical numbers appear only in the REARVIEW mirror.
link to original post


I fully agree with the rearview mirror analogy.

And in any case, once something has happened it simply has happened.

I think what some people are getting at is that it is more probable that something didn't happen versus that it did happen, therefore it did not happen. That is a fallacy.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:14:48 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.

]

Can you rephrase that or explain what you mean?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:14:59 AM permalink
Axelwolf I'm surprised you would even challenge my report that I lost 20 $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the Sahara.

First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.

You dont know if I knew basic strategy.

You dont know if I attempted to count.

You dont know anything.

The truth is I probably played a TOTAL of no more than 100 hands of blackjack in a casino my entire life. That's no more than 100 hands. I'm not a blackjack player. I dont even know basic strategy about what cards to split.

But you're saying my report about losing 20 $1 hands in a row is outrageous?

I'd call it understandable.

By the way my first time in a casino was when I was 25 years old. $2 blackjack. I had a $20 budget. I cashed out about $12, if I remember correctly.

I'm 69 years old now.

I remember playing $2 blackjack at Circus Circus in 1988 which was my first visit to Vegas. Again I had a $20 budget.

I played blackjack at Caesars only twice and I dont think I played more than about ten hands each time. My brother was visiting so I sat with him for a few hands. There were $10 tables then.

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