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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 10th, 2021 at 5:02:23 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


For the record AGAIN my son came over to me after a night of playing (we were in different parts of Caesars) and told me he hit five single line royals of $4000 each but lost it all because after each royal he moved up in denomination.

In reality he only hit, if I remember now, two $4000 royals but he hit three other pays of about $4k each.

I did NOT challenge my son. He's my son, I'm his father, over the number of royals. He gave me the wrong info.

Yes, you should believe your son when he originally tells you something. You should even feel comfortable repeating it. However, once you have been challenged multiple times and get "angry" at people challenging the claim over years of discussion off and on, even up to a point where you toss out a 5k bet that you can prove it with W2G's(or whatever) a reasonable person would get some facts. NO??

After reading the above how your son told you afterward, I find it very odd that you had so many details about how it all went down, in just the following post alone, well after the original post...

Alan: " that was my son who in about 24 hours hit five $4,000 royals and still lost money. One of the royals was about $4,300 on a $1 progressive at Gold Strike in Jean. He played almost continuously for 24 hours but after each $4,000 royal he moved up to $5 and $10 video poker for a period of time. He never hit a royal at $5 and $10 but only when he returned to $1 vp. Just one royal at $5 or $10 and he would have had a big profit -- instead of a loss. Had he stayed at $1 he would have had a nice win, we figure.:
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 10th, 2021 at 5:46:57 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

When the entire 18 yo's originally came up on the other forum, my offering was that someone, presumably the house, had accidentally inserted weighted dice onto the table. My supposition, and it doesn't really matter if it was 15 or 16 or 18 yo's, the odds being so long, was that it was the only Ockham's Razor explanation.

Could such a thing happen, the house accidentally inserting rigged dice that were usually employed to guarantee results under other circumstances? I don't see why not. And I'm not saying the dice would be rigged for the house; certainly there have been occasions when the house rigs events for specific players.

I'm always sensitive to the possibility of events like this. Las Vegas has more top notch magicians than any other city in the world. Mechanics exist. Rigged dice exist. I would think it quite likely, for example, that if someone were identifiably mugging various card games on a consistent basis for high stakes, eventually he would run into a mechanic so skilled that he'd make Penn and Teller look like five-thumbed amateurs.
link to original post

I think it's highly unlikely that 18 yo's in a row would come up AND NO ONE BET IT, NOT ONCE, AND NO ONE WOULD CHECK THE DICE CLOSELY.

Doesn't one start betting it after a certain amount of times? it's not like this is some super fast game people are not noticing this type of stuff. It's craps for god sake, that's all people do is notice this type of stuff.

Just imagine the situation after roll🎲🎲 7, 🤨8,🧐9 😮, People start looking around at each other, a silent do you see what I'm seeing look on their faces. 😏🤐

10.. 😵11....🤔. 12,.....😲 13,........🤤 14............🤑🤑🤑 15...............🤑🤑🤑16.🤯🤑🤯..17 🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑 18 🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑. 19💩💩💩
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Gundy
Gundy
Joined: Feb 25, 2021
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October 10th, 2021 at 6:13:37 AM permalink
18 Yos in a row?

I believe it 100%.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 10th, 2021 at 6:27:10 AM permalink
I just noticed that since this is a craps thread the advertisements on the side changed to the best craps bonuses online.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dieter
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Dieter
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
October 10th, 2021 at 6:29:36 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

well, there certainly is some irony that Mr. 888 is the one who decided to start a thread that is so likely to result in multiple ejections

link to original post



Point of order: OnceDear started this thread by splitting it off from another.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 10th, 2021 at 6:37:56 AM permalink
I may as well as this here as it is somewhat on topic. I'm writing an article on the such topics as the fallibility of memory and free speech. Here are three examples I plan to site:



Here are the odds of each, by the way:

• Probability of 18 totals of 11 in 18 rolls of the dice = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
• Probability of 60 winning hands in a row in blackjack, not counting ties = 1 in 107,557,145,896,478,000,000.
• Probability of streak of 48 Player wins in 49 hands of baccarat in the same shoe = 1 in 21,922,409,835,345.

Are there any good ones I'm missing? Please don't suggest Alan's son's five royals, as the claim wasn't made here and was walked back.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
OnceDear
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OnceDear 
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October 10th, 2021 at 7:08:22 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I just wasted a bunch of minutes reading Axel/AM back and forth. As to the title of this thread…. 18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. Exactly why a poster would make such claims is really the topic for discussion.
link to original post

You wasted Time? I just read through the old two dice puzzle thread!!!!! I'm going to need years in therapy again after that doozy.

You are right, that the topic for discussion should really be WHY a poster would make some claims. But then some names would inevitably come forward and some characters would be insulted to be examined and described.

I toyed with creating a thread to discuss the psychology of posters, generally, but let's not.

It would be a BanFest like nothing ever experienced.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
OnceDear
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OnceDear 
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October 10th, 2021 at 7:25:16 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I may as well as this here as it is somewhat on topic. I'm writing an article on the such topics as the fallibility of memory and free speech. Here are three examples I plan to site:



Here are the odds of each, by the way:

• Probability of 18 totals of 11 in 18 rolls of the dice = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
• Probability of 60 winning hands in a row in blackjack, not counting ties = 1 in 107,557,145,896,478,000,000.
• Probability of streak of 48 Player wins in 49 hands of baccarat in the same shoe = 1 in 21,922,409,835,345.

Are there any good ones I'm missing? Please don't suggest Alan's son's five royals, as the claim wasn't made here and was walked back.
link to original post

Wizard, You're a braver man than I, opening up such a BanFest of a topic. If it's about fallacy and free speech, I'll add the following events that did actually happen:-
OnceDear was abducted by aliens and on the mothership was greeted by Elvis and Michael Jackson. he escaped on Pegasus who flew him to safety. Described in the third person, because it was seen from out of body.

I know that's not an event you could calculate the probability of, but examine my absolute right to assert it, but no other members right to say I'm trolling, outright lying, high on something or mentally unwell.

I'm seriously trying to add to the debate. And that really did happen in 1979. I remember it like it was yesterday.

PS. It's cite, NOT site.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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October 10th, 2021 at 7:34:04 AM permalink
I have seen the strangest things.

32 reds in a row at roulette. Saw it once and I was betting so definitely counted correct. Wasn't betting high because I figured the streak would end.

Saw the following at E-roulette:

Guy places $50 on number 9. Every spin. At least twenty spins in a row he loses.

Give or take around this point the ball shoots out but you hear a loud CRACK as it hits the glass. Ball plops into number 9 slot without revolution around the wheel and the electronic dealer says no spin!

The guy cursed and because the ball had just landed in 9 he skips the very next spin. Of course, the ball once again lands in number 9.

The look on that guy's face was classic!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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October 10th, 2021 at 7:50:56 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: SOOPOO

I just wasted a bunch of minutes reading Axel/AM back and forth. As to the title of this thread…. 18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. Exactly why a poster would make such claims is really the topic for discussion.
link to original post

You wasted Time? I just read through the old two dice puzzle thread!!!!! I'm going to need years in therapy again after that doozy.

You are right, that the topic for discussion should really be WHY a poster would make some claims. But then some names would inevitably come forward and some characters would be insulted to be examined and described.

I toyed with creating a thread to discuss the psychology of posters, generally, but let's not.

It would be a BanFest like nothing ever experienced.
link to original post


Extremely improbable events do happen.

Hypothetically if you witnessed 18 yo’s in a row, would you just keep it to yourself to avoid ridicule? Like the time I was abducted and probed by little green men.

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