Highest statistical win?

Sorry for crappy thread title couldnt think of something better.

Outside of my zany baccarat attempt in a few short days, I'm wondering if it's possible to Yolo enough wins on one particular high payoff bet in craps to minimize the amount needed(13 wins roughly) to double or better my money but also being able to take down the bet after X number of spins(unless it's darkside I suppose.)

Essentially, what is the best mix of risk vs large profit available for a table that performs on the average 6 to 8 dice rolls and then crap out. We are going to assume the tables aren't hot for this scenario, but not perfectly choppy either.

Quote: ChallengedMilly

We are going to assume the tables aren't hot for this scenario, but not perfectly choppy either.

link to original post

You should always assume that/nothing. There is no such thing as a hot or choppy table untill after the fact when you decide to put a label on it.

I'm approaching it from the standard "no insanely hot rolls, no 7 out hit 7 out hit hit out, etc". Just using the standard statistics for outs.

It shouldn't be hard to calculate the probability of an X sized win as a sort of integral against Y Bankroll and Z max bet.

For example, the Wizard calculated the probability of "any" win at 98% for my observed session if played a certain way. I didn't play it that way, I played it the way I always do, but still if the desired win is small, and the bankroll sufficient, the probability for success is high.

Meaning that, say, trying to win $50K with a 1000 Bankroll and 10K max bet must be harder, statistically less probable, than trying to win $50K with a 100K bankroll and 35K max bet.

Increased bankroll is useful, but only to a point as related to the max bet and desired win.

For example in the past, at the tables it seems like I am able to get to a certain mid five figure ahead relatively frequently, but when I try to get above that certain point I often end up dumping it all. It shouldn't be any harder to get from +30K to +60K but somehow, it is.

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Outside of my zany baccarat attempt in a few short days, I'm wondering if it's possible to Yolo enough wins on one particular high payoff bet in craps to minimize the amount needed(13 wins roughly) to double or better my money but also being able to take down the bet after X number of spins(unless it's darkside I suppose.)

"I'd like that translated, if I may..."

Seriously, what, exactly, are you trying to do? There is already a formula to determine the probability of starting with bankroll B and making profit P before losing the entire bankroll, with bets of specified odds. What do you mean by "best mix of risk vs. large profit"?

There is one basic rule: if you're trying to reach a particular profit point, you make as few, and as large, bets as you can. The more you "crawl" in one direction or the other towards either your goal or going bust, the more you actually bet in total, which means the more you expose to the house edge.

The house edge of course has something to do with it, but sounds like Milly is hoping for some extraordinary...whatever you want to call it, variance, luck, etc.

If he gets it, he's going to need to hope that he takes full advantage of that run, and then...leaves.

Which pretty much comes down to what you are saying, to "make as few, and as large, bets as you can," but in my opinion, not so much because the house edge will getchya in just one session, but because you might just end up losing due to whatever tilted in your directly briefly, not staying on your side.

For example if he gets side by side runs at Baccarat and really pushes during them, and now has a grip of chips in front of him, chances are if he keeps playing and keeps pushing hoping for such a sequence again, that he'll give it back. Or, if he gets a serious run in craps and is betting the minimum, then suddenly jumps the bet on the pass line later when it so happens that no one is hitting the point, he'll lose big. He just has to hope that his luck and his big bets coincide, and then if that happens, accept that it might not keep up, and leave!

Hot table : pass line
Cold table: don’t pass line
Choppy table : either one

I’ve been using this strategy for decades and never had a losing session

Just thinking back to my 2 spot quarter keno days, play 2 chips on a single 15 to 1 bet so you get a 30 chip payoff. If you get 150 chips ahead, raise your bet to 3 chips. If you get another 225 chips ahead (+ 375 chips total), raise your bet to 4 chips. Call it a session when you win another 300 chips (+675 chips total). So what was your beginning session buy-in? 300 chips? 30 chips? This bet would have a better HA on a roulette wheel with 0 or 0-00 (put down a single split bet), but you can be a dice influencer at the craps table. Roulette has a $10 minimum, so you could be betting red chips, green chips, or black chips.

That's correct, I'm hoping to hit a hot variance streak. Just maximize odds over several bets, finding a balance between yoloing whatever profit gets won and walking away when certain target gets hit. Overall just want to have a fun time, and put weird variance idea into practice from theory.

It takes a lot of practice and discipline to take advantage truly well, of a run. Some of the time, you end up making far less than you should.

For example on a recent session I got a 13 Bank run - it ended up being a close to 3:1 Banker to Player's shoe. Looking over at the table next to me, a player I know slightly was getting streak after streak of Players; that shoe was running 3:1 if not more, Player.

I made money on my shoe, but not a ton (I made maybe ten grand on the run, which is piddling). The pit boss was even saying, "You really need to bet more right now," and I did, but not enough - I hadn't pulled a lot of money for that session, and I was too relaxed and not out for blood that day. And when I shouted over to the other table, to ask how that other player was doing, the response was, "Not good. I'm losing." - I mean, that player was actually betting against the streaks, free handing too many, or not following them at all.

I have had 16 Bank runs where I have cleared 100K, I've had 7 Player runs where I have cleared 100K, but then I've also had runs of over 10 where I have barely cleared 10K. Assuming that your bet size and timing will coincide is not a given.

What's interesting is that it is sometimes right after being DOWN that you might make the most on a run. You might start off with a larger bet due to that you're starting to win again and are in catch up mode, and then the run continues and you keep up with it, pressing from that initially high unit. BUT when that happens, it is hard to resist the impulse to let off on the gas once you reach even.

On a recent session a dealer said something to me that was interesting. The gist of it was - that people don't maintain table limit bets for more than one hand. They win one table limit bet, then get scared and don't do it again. Which implies that - the odds of playing a long streak for table limit all the way, are slim, based on anecdotal player data. Now, I've actually held a table limit bet for more than one hand in a row, such as on the 7 Player run where I cleared 100K, but in general - that dealer was right. If a player places a table limit bet out of nowhere, whether on Blackjack or Baccarat, typically he has a hard time holding the nerve to keep it up.

But the sad thing is, if you do a table limit bet, and win, then do just one more, and win - then now you have really no downside as far as over all loss in trying it a third time, and if you make and win three table limit bets, then you're really gone! and in the serious money if the streak continues.

More typical, is a streak where the player presses all the way, and then gets to table limit, and maintains it. The dealer agreed that yes, this happens, not infrequently, but to just throw a huge bet out there and then maintain it for even just one more hand, very few if any do that.

I even had a shoe not long ago where I declared that I was going to do table limit for three Bank hands. I did for one, and I won! but I chickened out and did not do it for the next two hands, I in fact FREE HANDED the next two, and BOTH turned out to be solid Banks.

"Why didn't you do it?" the pit boss said. "You said you were going to, and three Banks did come up?"

Why? Well, again, easier said than done.


Anyway, my advice to you is that - if you get a streak, and win money - be happy. And leave ahead. Don't kick yourself over that you could have emptied the tray.