How does Mr. "Establishment" explain that approximately 98% of the time the novice is NOT going to win when the perception is he will?
Mr. E. should not say anything like that.
He should instead tell the novice that he has about an even chance with the first bet he places, and the more bets he places, the more likely he is to lose overall. For a fairly long session, though, he still has about an even chance to either win or break even, especially if he'll accept 'roughly' breaking even.
Now, you might be worried about your novice getting hooked and going down the tubes, then start in with how gambling can ruin lives and all that, but that is a completely different subject
A good warning about betting systems is in order, and if you think he's so dumb he doesn't know the house has an edge, you need to tell him that
I back up my statement "has about an even chance" by pointing out that wizards can and do show a bet has a 244/495 chance, that 495 is close to 500, this demonstrating it's approaching 250/500 .... [246.46/500]
PS: Tuttigym, I finally responded to you on the Cherokee blogpost comment, btw
"O" you are wise beyond your years and quite possibly at odds with most of the patrons of theses forums. in 2010, when I started a similar thread denouncing the 1.41 HA of the PL wager, there was a flood of hateful responses, excoriations, and name calling. I found that the vast majority of craps player responders saw the PL bet as the patron saint of the game and to impugn or sully the activity was heresy. I wonder if that is still true today? You see, there are still huge numbers, I believe, that say the PL wager "is the best or one of the best bets in the casino." My response to that is simply, "hogwash."
The years are adding up for me so to go beyond them gets a little frightening LOL
The variance of the line bet by itself is very low, close to "1" , so it is one of the most boring bets in the casino if a player is going to just bet the minimum on the line time after time.
Showing the "math" that defines the 1.41 HA is truly meaningless, because it has never happened or actually documented, and is not, more importantly, relevant to any given session played. So how does one go about telling a novice about the mythical HA is terms of 3rd grade arithmetic and 3rd grade language?
Tell them it reflects what is LIKELY to happen in the short run and WILL almost certainly happen in the long run.
Tell them that although the casino has an advantage on every bet, some of those bets, including PL, are more likely to win than others, such as Big Six or Keno.
Then introduce them to the Wiz: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
And yes, there are lots of bets in the casino that are not as good like betting single numbers in roulette, Keno, and even the slots, but the potential for larger losses rests with PL + odds + the other numbers bet in combination in a given hand.
I personally am not a fan of the Wizard's HE math or convoluted, elongated, and beyond confusing dissections of simple concepts of craps math, i.e. after a point is established there are 30 ways to win and six ways to lose on any given roll of the dice; 5 ways to roll a 6 or 8; 4 ways to roll a 5 or nine; and 3 ways to roll a 4 or ten. To define the HA in its most simple terms, a 6 or 8 point gives the house a 16+% advantage; a 5 or nine point gives the house a 33+% advantage, and a 4 or ten point gives the house a 50% advantage. Those facts are understandable in their simplicity and economical in their explanations. Trying to sort through multi-line equations that are mathematically sound but are rarely, if ever, been accomplished, at some point are boring, confusing, and a turn-off in my opinion.
Thanks again for your contributions and please reply some more when you have the time
In the short-term it might as well be a zero edge game. All you need to think about is the variance.
"house advantage" (HA) of wagers, i.e. 1.41 HA of the PL bet. So what EXACTLY does that mean regarding actual results during normal play in terms of winning or losing a real PL bet not only at come out but more importantly after the point is established?
Using third grade words:
Sometimes you win and they pay you.
Sometimes you lose and you pay them.
The rules of the game are set up so you probably lose a few more times than you win.
If you played 1000 times, you would probably win 493 times and lose 507 times, but you'd probably have a lot of fun throwing the dice and cheering.