tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 20th, 2021 at 10:48:34 AM permalink
Craps "establishment" players often refer to the "house advantage" (HA) of wagers, i.e. 1.41 HA of the PL bet. So what EXACTLY does that mean regarding actual results during normal play in terms of winning or losing a real PL bet not only at come out but more importantly after the point is established? Showing the "math" that defines the 1.41 HA is truly meaningless, because it has never happened or actually documented, and is not, more importantly, relevant to any given session played. So how does one go about telling a novice about the mythical HA is terms of 3rd grade arithmetic and 3rd grade language? How can one justify the PL wager as a winning strategy using the 1.41 HA to that same novice when that individual somehow believes that the reputed HA is so miniscule in the grand scheme of the game? How does Mr. "Establishment" explain that approximately 98% of the time the novice is NOT going to win when the perception is he will?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 20th, 2021 at 11:34:35 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

How does Mr. "Establishment" explain that approximately 98% of the time the novice is NOT going to win when the perception is he will?



Mr. E. should not say anything like that.

He should instead tell the novice that he has about an even chance with the first bet he places, and the more bets he places, the more likely he is to lose overall. For a fairly long session, though, he still has about an even chance to either win or break even, especially if he'll accept 'roughly' breaking even.

Now, you might be worried about your novice getting hooked and going down the tubes, then start in with how gambling can ruin lives and all that, but that is a completely different subject

A good warning about betting systems is in order, and if you think he's so dumb he doesn't know the house has an edge, you need to tell him that

I back up my statement "has about an even chance" by pointing out that wizards can and do show a bet has a 244/495 chance, that 495 is close to 500, this demonstrating it's approaching 250/500 .... [246.46/500]

PS: Tuttigym, I finally responded to you on the Cherokee blogpost comment, btw
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jun 20, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 20th, 2021 at 1:23:07 PM permalink
"O" you are wise beyond your years and quite possibly at odds with most of the patrons of theses forums. in 2010, when I started a similar thread denouncing the 1.41 HA of the PL wager, there was a flood of hateful responses, excoriations, and name calling. I found that the vast majority of craps player responders saw the PL bet as the patron saint of the game and to impugn or sully the activity was heresy. I wonder if that is still true today? You see, there are still huge numbers, I believe, that say the PL wager "is the best or one of the best bets in the casino." My response to that is simply, "hogwash."

tuttigym
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 20th, 2021 at 1:53:56 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

"O" you are wise beyond your years and quite possibly at odds with most of the patrons of theses forums. in 2010, when I started a similar thread denouncing the 1.41 HA of the PL wager, there was a flood of hateful responses, excoriations, and name calling. I found that the vast majority of craps player responders saw the PL bet as the patron saint of the game and to impugn or sully the activity was heresy. I wonder if that is still true today? You see, there are still huge numbers, I believe, that say the PL wager "is the best or one of the best bets in the casino." My response to that is simply, "hogwash."

tuttigym



The years are adding up for me so to go beyond them gets a little frightening LOL

The variance of the line bet by itself is very low, close to "1" , so it is one of the most boring bets in the casino if a player is going to just bet the minimum on the line time after time.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 20th, 2021 at 2:14:26 PM permalink
Thanks for responding to my wagering question. I could not reply as there was no reply box at the end of your answer. The key part of my query was the use of small table legal bets to thwart the $25 minimum I, myself, am a member of the "old, short, fat, dumpy dude" fraternity. I am going to start a thread on the subject to see if there are any "outside the box" thinker/gamblers. We shall see. After a week of hopefully neat responses, I will reveal my wacky plan and wait for comments.

tuttigym
MrV
MrV
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Thanks for this post from:
unJon
June 20th, 2021 at 2:38:41 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Showing the "math" that defines the 1.41 HA is truly meaningless, because it has never happened or actually documented, and is not, more importantly, relevant to any given session played. So how does one go about telling a novice about the mythical HA is terms of 3rd grade arithmetic and 3rd grade language?



Tell them it reflects what is LIKELY to happen in the short run and WILL almost certainly happen in the long run.

Tell them that although the casino has an advantage on every bet, some of those bets, including PL, are more likely to win than others, such as Big Six or Keno.

Then introduce them to the Wiz: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
"What, me worry?"
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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June 20th, 2021 at 3:42:38 PM permalink
I'm taking the reciprocal of 0.0141 and getting approximately 71. If I take the reciprocal of 0.01389 for the Don'ts, I get about 72. So that's like playing a single zero roulette wheel where it has that "La Partage Rule" (and getting half your bet back if the ball lands on a zero). The lower House Advantage means you'll likely get higher highs on the upside. So if you place 400 different PL bets, the square root of that is 20 wins/losses, then throw in the HA of -5.6 bets and you'll be playing a game of 1 SD between (-25.6, +14.4). So I should set my buy-in at 25 units, and set a win goal of 15 units at the craps table over the time it takes to make 400 PL bets. Of course things could get to 2 SD or even 3 SD. That's another calculation and maybe another buy-in or two. I could try to set a win goal of 50+ units, but I'm gonna settle for 35 units for that fluke win streak.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 20th, 2021 at 7:08:24 PM permalink
MrV: Thanks for your answer and input. Many who are just learning the game as well as seasoned veterans want substance and plain explanations. Terminologies such as "short and long term" are vague and are not easily defined. So, if I were to ask you how many rolls, hands, sessions, hours encompass the "short term" or the "long term," what would your specific answer(s) be?

And yes, there are lots of bets in the casino that are not as good like betting single numbers in roulette, Keno, and even the slots, but the potential for larger losses rests with PL + odds + the other numbers bet in combination in a given hand.

I personally am not a fan of the Wizard's HE math or convoluted, elongated, and beyond confusing dissections of simple concepts of craps math, i.e. after a point is established there are 30 ways to win and six ways to lose on any given roll of the dice; 5 ways to roll a 6 or 8; 4 ways to roll a 5 or nine; and 3 ways to roll a 4 or ten. To define the HA in its most simple terms, a 6 or 8 point gives the house a 16+% advantage; a 5 or nine point gives the house a 33+% advantage, and a 4 or ten point gives the house a 50% advantage. Those facts are understandable in their simplicity and economical in their explanations. Trying to sort through multi-line equations that are mathematically sound but are rarely, if ever, been accomplished, at some point are boring, confusing, and a turn-off in my opinion.

Thanks again for your contributions and please reply some more when you have the time

tuttigym
Ace2
Ace2
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pwcrabb
June 20th, 2021 at 7:55:28 PM permalink
For low house-edge games, the edge doesn't really matter much until you've played thousands of rounds.

In the short-term it might as well be a zero edge game. All you need to think about is the variance.
It’s all about making that GTA
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
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June 21st, 2021 at 12:25:39 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

"house advantage" (HA) of wagers, i.e. 1.41 HA of the PL bet. So what EXACTLY does that mean regarding actual results during normal play in terms of winning or losing a real PL bet not only at come out but more importantly after the point is established?



Using third grade words:
Sometimes you win and they pay you.
Sometimes you lose and you pay them.
The rules of the game are set up so you probably lose a few more times than you win.
If you played 1000 times, you would probably win 493 times and lose 507 times, but you'd probably have a lot of fun throwing the dice and cheering.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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