House Advantage vs Winning/Losing
June 20th, 2021 at 10:48:34 AM
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Craps "establishment" players often refer to the "house advantage" (HA) of wagers, i.e. 1.41 HA of the PL bet. So what EXACTLY does that mean regarding actual results during normal play in terms of winning or losing a real PL bet not only at come out but more importantly after the point is established? Showing the "math" that defines the 1.41 HA is truly meaningless, because it has never happened or actually documented, and is not, more importantly, relevant to any given session played. So how does one go about telling a novice about the mythical HA is terms of 3rd grade arithmetic and 3rd grade language? How can one justify the PL wager as a winning strategy using the 1.41 HA to that same novice when that individual somehow believes that the reputed HA is so miniscule in the grand scheme of the game? How does Mr. "Establishment" explain that approximately 98% of the time the novice is NOT going to win when the perception is he will?
June 20th, 2021 at 11:34:35 AM
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Quote: tuttigymHow does Mr. "Establishment" explain that approximately 98% of the time the novice is NOT going to win when the perception is he will?
Mr. E. should not say anything like that.
He should instead tell the novice that he has about an even chance with the first bet he places, and the more bets he places, the more likely he is to lose overall. For a fairly long session, though, he still has about an even chance to either win or break even, especially if he'll accept 'roughly' breaking even.
Now, you might be worried about your novice getting hooked and going down the tubes, then start in with how gambling can ruin lives and all that, but that is a completely different subject
A good warning about betting systems is in order, and if you think he's so dumb he doesn't know the house has an edge, you need to tell him that
I back up my statement "has about an even chance" by pointing out that wizards can and do show a bet has a 244/495 chance, that 495 is close to 500, this demonstrating it's approaching 250/500 .... [246.46/500]
PS: Tuttigym, I finally responded to you on the Cherokee blogpost comment, btw
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jun 20, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 20th, 2021 at 1:23:07 PM
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"O" you are wise beyond your years and quite possibly at odds with most of the patrons of theses forums. in 2010, when I started a similar thread denouncing the 1.41 HA of the PL wager, there was a flood of hateful responses, excoriations, and name calling. I found that the vast majority of craps player responders saw the PL bet as the patron saint of the game and to impugn or sully the activity was heresy. I wonder if that is still true today? You see, there are still huge numbers, I believe, that say the PL wager "is the best or one of the best bets in the casino." My response to that is simply, "hogwash."
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 20th, 2021 at 1:53:56 PM
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Quote: tuttigym"O" you are wise beyond your years and quite possibly at odds with most of the patrons of theses forums. in 2010, when I started a similar thread denouncing the 1.41 HA of the PL wager, there was a flood of hateful responses, excoriations, and name calling. I found that the vast majority of craps player responders saw the PL bet as the patron saint of the game and to impugn or sully the activity was heresy. I wonder if that is still true today? You see, there are still huge numbers, I believe, that say the PL wager "is the best or one of the best bets in the casino." My response to that is simply, "hogwash."
tuttigym
The years are adding up for me so to go beyond them gets a little frightening LOL
The variance of the line bet by itself is very low, close to "1" , so it is one of the most boring bets in the casino if a player is going to just bet the minimum on the line time after time.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 20th, 2021 at 2:14:26 PM
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Thanks for responding to my wagering question. I could not reply as there was no reply box at the end of your answer. The key part of my query was the use of small table legal bets to thwart the $25 minimum I, myself, am a member of the "old, short, fat, dumpy dude" fraternity. I am going to start a thread on the subject to see if there are any "outside the box" thinker/gamblers. We shall see. After a week of hopefully neat responses, I will reveal my wacky plan and wait for comments.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 20th, 2021 at 2:38:41 PM
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Quote: tuttigymShowing the "math" that defines the 1.41 HA is truly meaningless, because it has never happened or actually documented, and is not, more importantly, relevant to any given session played. So how does one go about telling a novice about the mythical HA is terms of 3rd grade arithmetic and 3rd grade language?
Tell them it reflects what is LIKELY to happen in the short run and WILL almost certainly happen in the long run.
Tell them that although the casino has an advantage on every bet, some of those bets, including PL, are more likely to win than others, such as Big Six or Keno.
Then introduce them to the Wiz: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
"What, me worry?"
June 20th, 2021 at 3:42:38 PM
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I'm taking the reciprocal of 0.0141 and getting approximately 71. If I take the reciprocal of 0.01389 for the Don'ts, I get about 72. So that's like playing a single zero roulette wheel where it has that "La Partage Rule" (and getting half your bet back if the ball lands on a zero). The lower House Advantage means you'll likely get higher highs on the upside. So if you place 400 different PL bets, the square root of that is 20 wins/losses, then throw in the HA of -5.6 bets and you'll be playing a game of 1 SD between (-25.6, +14.4). So I should set my buy-in at 25 units, and set a win goal of 15 units at the craps table over the time it takes to make 400 PL bets. Of course things could get to 2 SD or even 3 SD. That's another calculation and maybe another buy-in or two. I could try to set a win goal of 50+ units, but I'm gonna settle for 35 units for that fluke win streak.
June 20th, 2021 at 7:08:24 PM
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MrV: Thanks for your answer and input. Many who are just learning the game as well as seasoned veterans want substance and plain explanations. Terminologies such as "short and long term" are vague and are not easily defined. So, if I were to ask you how many rolls, hands, sessions, hours encompass the "short term" or the "long term," what would your specific answer(s) be?
And yes, there are lots of bets in the casino that are not as good like betting single numbers in roulette, Keno, and even the slots, but the potential for larger losses rests with PL + odds + the other numbers bet in combination in a given hand.
I personally am not a fan of the Wizard's HE math or convoluted, elongated, and beyond confusing dissections of simple concepts of craps math, i.e. after a point is established there are 30 ways to win and six ways to lose on any given roll of the dice; 5 ways to roll a 6 or 8; 4 ways to roll a 5 or nine; and 3 ways to roll a 4 or ten. To define the HA in its most simple terms, a 6 or 8 point gives the house a 16+% advantage; a 5 or nine point gives the house a 33+% advantage, and a 4 or ten point gives the house a 50% advantage. Those facts are understandable in their simplicity and economical in their explanations. Trying to sort through multi-line equations that are mathematically sound but are rarely, if ever, been accomplished, at some point are boring, confusing, and a turn-off in my opinion.
Thanks again for your contributions and please reply some more when you have the time
tuttigym
And yes, there are lots of bets in the casino that are not as good like betting single numbers in roulette, Keno, and even the slots, but the potential for larger losses rests with PL + odds + the other numbers bet in combination in a given hand.
I personally am not a fan of the Wizard's HE math or convoluted, elongated, and beyond confusing dissections of simple concepts of craps math, i.e. after a point is established there are 30 ways to win and six ways to lose on any given roll of the dice; 5 ways to roll a 6 or 8; 4 ways to roll a 5 or nine; and 3 ways to roll a 4 or ten. To define the HA in its most simple terms, a 6 or 8 point gives the house a 16+% advantage; a 5 or nine point gives the house a 33+% advantage, and a 4 or ten point gives the house a 50% advantage. Those facts are understandable in their simplicity and economical in their explanations. Trying to sort through multi-line equations that are mathematically sound but are rarely, if ever, been accomplished, at some point are boring, confusing, and a turn-off in my opinion.
Thanks again for your contributions and please reply some more when you have the time
tuttigym
June 20th, 2021 at 7:55:28 PM
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For low house-edge games, the edge doesn't really matter much until you've played thousands of rounds.
In the short-term it might as well be a zero edge game. All you need to think about is the variance.
In the short-term it might as well be a zero edge game. All you need to think about is the variance.
It’s all about making that GTA
June 21st, 2021 at 12:25:39 AM
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Quote: tuttigym"house advantage" (HA) of wagers, i.e. 1.41 HA of the PL bet. So what EXACTLY does that mean regarding actual results during normal play in terms of winning or losing a real PL bet not only at come out but more importantly after the point is established?
Using third grade words:
Sometimes you win and they pay you.
Sometimes you lose and you pay them.
The rules of the game are set up so you probably lose a few more times than you win.
If you played 1000 times, you would probably win 493 times and lose 507 times, but you'd probably have a lot of fun throwing the dice and cheering.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2021 at 2:45:28 AM
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Casinos don't make their money by collecting your losing wagers. They make it by paying you less than true odds when you win. By paying you 35-1 n a wager that should pay 38-1, the house has an edge only the most magnificent gamblers can overcome.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
June 21st, 2021 at 3:28:45 AM
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Quote: billryanCasinos don't make their money by collecting your losing wagers.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around that one.
If all the house did was give money away (even at reduced odds), I don't see how they'd make any money at all.
Collecting the even money wager more often than paying the even money wager works too.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2021 at 3:48:00 PM
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MrChump c: In a previous post on another thread you stated that your buy-ins are in the $30-$60 range, so whatever you are stating here has no relevance unless you can provide dollar amounts with real results. Now you are certainly entitled to post whatever you like, but for me there is no credibility in whatever math it is you are pushing. At a full table, 400 PL bets or hands would take hours to accomplish with a very large bank roll for a buy-in. Square roots and SD's will not put enough cash in a players chip tray to survive for any length of time and bankruptcy is the only outcome. Be real.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 3:54:52 PM
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Mr. Dieter: Thank you for the above post. It made me smile at the simplicity of the thought of playing, cheering, and just having fun with the potential of winning. Playing 1000 sessions would break most players regardless of outcomes.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 3:59:08 PM
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I'd probably buy-in for $100/$200/$400+ at a $5 table, but since the plastic dividers have come down this past week, I haven't been back to see if $5 tables came back. But I'd rather fool around on the Bubble Craps for less money until my dice influencing beats the game and gives me a bigger stake than $30-$60.
At a $5 table, if I buy-in for 10 units to bet on the PL only, that typically lasts me 30 to 90 minutes before I lose it all or double my money.
I'm changing my strategy this year to buy-in for 15 units, and have a backup buy-in, for a total of 30 units; which is about the same amount of money as buying in for 3X 10 unit sessions.
I usually intend to play for 3-5 hours or more. I'm not used to being on my feet so I could really use a comfy bar chair when I'm not shooting (and Bubble Craps has the chair). At this point the casino could keep their $15 tables because the Bubble Craps can handle the lower limit players ($195 on the PL, $390 2X Odds, & $390 Place Bets)
At a $5 table, if I buy-in for 10 units to bet on the PL only, that typically lasts me 30 to 90 minutes before I lose it all or double my money.
I'm changing my strategy this year to buy-in for 15 units, and have a backup buy-in, for a total of 30 units; which is about the same amount of money as buying in for 3X 10 unit sessions.
I usually intend to play for 3-5 hours or more. I'm not used to being on my feet so I could really use a comfy bar chair when I'm not shooting (and Bubble Craps has the chair). At this point the casino could keep their $15 tables because the Bubble Craps can handle the lower limit players ($195 on the PL, $390 2X Odds, & $390 Place Bets)
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 21, 2021
June 21st, 2021 at 4:02:05 PM
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Quote: DieterI'm still trying to wrap my head around that one.
If all the house did was give money away (even at reduced odds), I don't see how they'd make any money at all.
Collecting the even money wager more often than paying the even money wager works too.
Take roulette. If you bet a number, it is one in thirty-eight that it hits. If the casino paid true odds, you'd lose 37 times, win the 38th and be even. but it only pays 35-1 so it is the lack of full pay that gives the casino its edge. I look at it as a tax on each win.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
June 21st, 2021 at 4:06:24 PM
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Mr. Ace2 and Mr billryan: There may be 1% of players who get into the weeds and think about "variance" and HE or HA. The rest of the vast majority of "players" gamble to have some fun, enjoy the excitement, and maybe win. By misdirecting ones focus with gambling micro-management is not helpful.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 4:15:58 PM
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Quote: tuttigymMr. Ace2 and Mr billryan: There may be 1% of players who get into the weeds and think about "variance" and HE or HA. The rest of the vast majority of "players" gamble to have some fun, enjoy the excitement, and maybe win. By misdirecting ones focus with gambling micro-management is not helpful.
tuttigym
By strange coincidence, that's about the same percentage of people who win.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
June 21st, 2021 at 4:49:35 PM
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Quote: billryanTake roulette. If you bet a number, it is one in thirty-eight that it hits. If the casino paid true odds, you'd lose 37 times, win the 38th and be even. but it only pays 35-1 so it is the lack of full pay that gives the casino its edge. I look at it as a tax on each win.
I understand that a win is paid at 95% (well, 36 for 1 on 38) when a loss costs you 100%.
What I'm saying is I'll gladly let you pay 1:100 on a red/black if you push all my losing bets.
In third grade terms, house edge means you lose a little more than you win. That can either be because you lose more often than you win, or the prize for winning is less than your chance of winning compared to the cost of playing, or a mix of both.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2021 at 6:57:53 PM
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Mr. billryan: Really? And you know this how?? Do all the winners check in with you and conversely those who lose stay silent? So I am going to assume that you are a consistent winner and wonder, how do you handle a "choppy" table that is so unpredictable as to defy any "variance"? How about a "cold" table where the HA is so skewed that "establishment" players, such as you ( I am just guessing here), run screaming into the night?
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 7:18:45 PM
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Mr. Dieter: I do not understand why anyone would obsess about a payout that is short of perfect. All the casino is doing is increasing their profit margin. Think about what a small that amount that actually is 5%. When one purchases something retail, the mark-up is usually over 50% over he retailer's cost. How about an auto mechanic doubling the cost of parts replaced for repairs. Are you aware of these profits, and do you overtly complain?
I like your definition on HE. How does that differ from the HA? Won't the HA actually increase the HE simply because losses incurred because of the HA are, by and large, greater than wins? A 7 out takes down all the right side bets at once while a point winner only pays for that one number. At that point the 5% is really meaningless. Just sayin'.
tuttigym
I like your definition on HE. How does that differ from the HA? Won't the HA actually increase the HE simply because losses incurred because of the HA are, by and large, greater than wins? A 7 out takes down all the right side bets at once while a point winner only pays for that one number. At that point the 5% is really meaningless. Just sayin'.
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 7:26:37 PM
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Knowing the edge and variance is not micromanaging, it's just understanding the very basics of the game. I agree that many people don't understand the basics...and these are generally the people that get in trouble. Just like people that get in over their head with a credit card or mortgage without understanding how they work, even though they are all very simpleQuote: tuttigymMr. Ace2 and Mr billryan: There may be 1% of players who get into the weeds and think about "variance" and HE or HA. The rest of the vast majority of "players" gamble to have some fun, enjoy the excitement, and maybe win. By misdirecting ones focus with gambling micro-management is not helpful.
tuttigym
It’s all about making that GTA
June 21st, 2021 at 8:05:51 PM
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Mr. tuttigym might be an HA denier. No amount of losing 16% on a keno machine will change his mind.
June 22nd, 2021 at 3:56:53 AM
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Quote: tuttigymMr. Ace2 and Mr billryan: There may be 1% of players who get into the weeds and think about "variance" and HE or HA. The rest of the vast majority of "players" gamble to have some fun, enjoy the excitement, and maybe win. By misdirecting ones focus with gambling micro-management is not helpful.
tuttigym
I doubt it's that high. Anyway, very few people in that 1% of players would say that you can't have fun, excitement and maybe win. I don't care what you do, personally, but would prefer for people to be making an informed decision.
Would you buy a car without knowing the price? "Hand me that suitcase full of money and I will take out what the car costs." All the, "1%," are really trying to do is tell you the cost of the car and give you some specs on it. At that point, you can make a better decision as to whether or not you think the car is worth buying.
Secondly, if there were two five-reel slot machines each with a $3.00 Max Bet, which we will say is the only possible bet for the purpose of this question, and I told you one had an RTP of 95% whilst the other was 87%, which would you play?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
June 22nd, 2021 at 4:08:41 AM
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Quote: tuttigymAre you aware of these profits, and do you overtly complain?
I like your definition on HE. How does that differ from the HA? Won't the HA actually increase the HE simply because losses incurred because of the HA are, by and large, greater than wins?
If they couldn't make any money, they wouldn't offer the game. There are costs - licenses, real estate development, that fancy expensive table, new dice, staff, cocktails... etc. House edge (or house advantage - pretty much the same thing) are how they get a piece of the action in the game to pay for those things.
Just like I have the option of price shopping and comparing a $1 tube of toothpaste with a $7 tube of toothpaste, house edge (or advantage) is a way of price comparing different kinds of betting.
Of course, if you really like Big Six, Keno, and the latest life changing jackpot slot machines, the fact that pass line on craps is a less expensive way to gamble doesn't matter. If you like throwing the dice, you don't get to do that in roulette - but you do get to pick which of the many dice table bets you want to make. Those different bets have different house edges, and you can use the house edge on the various bets to help you decide which you might like to make.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 23rd, 2021 at 7:28:37 PM
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Mission 146 & Dieter: Patrons of casinos do not really have a choice because the industry is pretty much a monopoly. The payouts and HA & HE have basically been fixed throughout regardless of the venue. Our only choices are the games themselves and within those games are wagers ranging from okay to awful. We pick our poison based on table minimums, our gambling budget, our risk tolerance, and our venue preferences. In Biloxi, MS, the $1 tube of toothpaste is the Palace with its $3 craps table or Treasure Bay with its $2 carnival card games. The $7 toothpaste is the upscale Beau Revage or the Hard Rock. However, within those entities lurks the same payouts on identical wagers. The patrons are creatures of habit and will continue to play and bet as they always do trying to find that elusive "hot" table or "magic" touch that will bring them riches and stories to tell their friends, children, grand children, etc.
And so it goes. Informing anyone who will listen about the best bets, the lowest HA/HE, etc. all goes up in smoke as the cheers and screams from the craps table abound because someone just won $1,000 on $100 bet on the hard 8 or better yet a big winner hits a parley number at the roulette wheel. Ain't it grand?
tuttigym
And so it goes. Informing anyone who will listen about the best bets, the lowest HA/HE, etc. all goes up in smoke as the cheers and screams from the craps table abound because someone just won $1,000 on $100 bet on the hard 8 or better yet a big winner hits a parley number at the roulette wheel. Ain't it grand?
tuttigym
June 23rd, 2021 at 8:29:51 PM
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Quote: tuttigymPatrons of casinos do not really have a choice because the industry is pretty much a monopoly. The payouts and HA & HE have basically been fixed throughout regardless of the venue.
You can pay & play. Or not.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 25th, 2021 at 11:28:09 AM
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This is simply not true. Take blackjack for example. Some casinos offer 3:2 BJ, whereas some only offer 6:5. In fact, I have been to casinos where there is a 3:2 BJ table right next to a 6:5 BJ table with the same minimums. I have also seen a full 6:5 table next to an empty 3:2 table. That tells me that either players don't know the difference, or don't care if they play a game where they will lose more quickly.Quote: tuttigymMission 146 & Dieter: Patrons of casinos do not really have a choice because the industry is pretty much a monopoly. The payouts and HA & HE have basically been fixed throughout regardless of the venue.
Instead of saying patrons don't have a choice, I think it would be more accurate to say "Most patrons of casinos either don't know they have a choice or don't care."
That said, for any single given recreational player on any single given night, there would not be much if any appreciable difference in his results playing 3:2 vs. 6:5.
Last edited by: Joeman on Jun 25, 2021
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
June 26th, 2021 at 12:15:35 PM
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Quote: tuttigymHow does Mr. "Establishment" explain that approximately 98% of the time the novice is NOT going to win when the perception is he will?
Both a novice and experienced player will win over 49% of all passline bets, which is a lot higher than 2%.
June 26th, 2021 at 3:20:17 PM
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Mr.TomG: I am sorry, sir, ALL PL bets are irrevocably tied to a point that is established as an integral part of the game of craps. If a player wins his PL bet 30% of the time with point conversions as well as come outs, he might do okay, but probably not.
tuttigym
tuttigym
