ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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January 20th, 2021 at 2:37:56 PM permalink
They were all craps and yo's, your numbers didn't hit.
Headlock
Headlock
Joined: Feb 9, 2010
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January 20th, 2021 at 4:18:20 PM permalink
I'm playing crapless so I made a lot of money on those 10 rolls.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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January 20th, 2021 at 4:44:19 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

I realized last night when I was in bed reviewing the day that I did not give enough information. So lets say $260 across. $25 each except $30 on the six and eight.


Some questions:
1. Are they all place bets?
2. Are they turned off during subsequent comeout rolls?
3, Do you take all of them down after the tenth roll?
4. Are you sure you want to bet $25 rather than $24 on 2/3/11/12, since you're not going to get full odds on that extra dollar (in fact, you should get paid just as much on 3 or 11 for a $25 bet as a $24 if they don't have 25c chips)?
5. If a bet wins, do you repeat the bet, or just leave that number empty for the rest of the rolls?
Headlock
Headlock
Joined: Feb 9, 2010
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January 20th, 2021 at 4:49:45 PM permalink
I know. I was trying to keep it simple. Can we just assume $1 on each number, 2-12,? Can you calculate the estimated return for 10 rolls, no pressure, no take-downs?

I'm just wondering if I get ten rolls in crapless without a seven, what is the expected return if I have an equal amount on every number.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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January 20th, 2021 at 5:07:42 PM permalink
You can really tell, few play crapless around here. First of all it will be $265 because $100 of your bets are buys with vig upfront. Using Mississippi rules and one hit per number the payouts would be ($149 + 74 + 49 + 36 + 35) * 2
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Headlock
Headlock
Joined: Feb 9, 2010
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January 20th, 2021 at 5:53:41 PM permalink
I don't think your math is correct because the chance of hitting 2 or 12 is not the same as 6 or 8.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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January 20th, 2021 at 6:30:21 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

I don't think your math is correct because the chance of hitting 2 or 12 is not the same as 6 or 8.



So you have $1 on all numbers with all place payouts but 4/10 paying 2/1 with a 5% upfront vig (so you actually have $1.05 on 4/10)?

With this those assumptions and assuming 10 rolls where the 7 doesnít show you would win $18.76508 on average.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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January 20th, 2021 at 6:49:18 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

I know. I was trying to keep it simple. Can we just assume $1 on each number, 2-12,? Can you calculate the estimated return for 10 rolls, no pressure, no take-downs?

I'm just wondering if I get ten rolls in crapless without a seven, what is the expected return if I have an equal amount on every number.


The exact number I get is 54,631,269,497,559,821 / 4,428,675,000,000,000, or about 12.3358.
unJon
unJon
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January 20th, 2021 at 6:52:10 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The exact number I get is 54,631,269,497,559,821 / 4,428,675,000,000,000, or about 12.3358.



Thatís very different than my number. You sure you rolled with 30 permutations in denominator (given no 7s rolled)?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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January 20th, 2021 at 7:22:28 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Thatís very different than my number. You sure you rolled with 30 permutations in denominator (given no 7s rolled)?


Yes, and I also got this value in simulation.
Keep in mind that I placed 4 and 10 instead of buying them, although that shouldn't make the numbers that different.

I actually used a 10,241-step Markov chain (the first step is for the initial condition, then each combination of the number of rolls and which point numbers had already been rolled), although it turns out that I could have just done the following:
2 * ((1 - (29/30)^10) * 11/2 + (1 - (28/30)^10) * 11/4 + (1 - (27/30)^10) * 9/5 + (1 - (26/30)^10) * 7/5 + (1 - (25/30)^10) * 7/6)
For some reason, I didn't think that would work.

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