Headlock
Headlock
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January 19th, 2021 at 3:45:20 PM permalink
I'm hoping to get some math help from the experts.

Chance of rolling a seven is 6 out of 36, or .16667.

Chance of rolling any other number 30 out of 36, or .83333.

Say you roll any number other than 7, the chance of a second roll being anything other than a 7 is again .83333.

So is the chance of two rolls in a row being any number other than 7 .83333 to the second power?

And the chance of three rolls in a row no seven .83333 to the third power?

If my calculations are correct, the chance of 10 rolls without a seven is .83333 to the 10th power, or .16151.

Am I right?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 19th, 2021 at 3:56:59 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

I'm hoping to get some math help from the experts.

Chance of rolling a seven is 6 out of 36, or .16667.

Chance of rolling any other number 30 out of 36, or .83333.

Say you roll any number other than 7, the chance of a second roll being anything other than a 7 is again .83333.

So is the chance of two rolls in a row being any number other than 7 .83333 to the second power?

And the chance of three rolls in a row no seven .83333 to the third power?

If my calculations are correct, the chance of 10 rolls without a seven is .83333 to the 10th power, or .16151.

Am I right?



You bet! What is the next question!?
Headlock
Headlock
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January 19th, 2021 at 4:09:00 PM permalink
Thanks Soopoo.

So the chance of 10 rolls without a 7 is just slightly less than rolling a 7: .16151 compared to .16667.

If I'm playing crapless craps and get 10 rolls without a 7, what is the expected payout of those 10 rolls?

2 and 12 pay 11 to 2, 3 and 11 pay 11 to 4.

(Edited to change 2 and 12 pay 11 to 2, not 11 to 4)
Last edited by: Headlock on Jan 19, 2021
DeMango
DeMango
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January 19th, 2021 at 5:50:52 PM permalink
Well I'm putting $100 on each of the extreme numbers. After 10 rolls, none have rolled. So the answer is -$20 upfront vig. 2 & 12 pay 6-1, 3 & 11 pay 3-1, not including vig.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 19th, 2021 at 6:10:26 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

Thanks Soopoo.

So the chance of 10 rolls without a 7 is just slightly less than rolling a 7: .16151 compared to .16667.

If I'm playing crapless craps and get 10 rolls without a 7, what is the expected payout of those 10 rolls?

2 and 12 pay 11 to 2, 3 and 11 pay 11 to 4.

(Edited to change 2 and 12 pay 11 to 2, not 11 to 4)

. Not sure what you are asking? What were you betting on?
speedycrap
speedycrap
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January 19th, 2021 at 6:45:50 PM permalink
We should wait for Wizard to give all the answer.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Thanks for this post from:
Ace2
January 19th, 2021 at 11:02:31 PM permalink
It's a gambler's fallacy to put a place bet down on the point if you're not betting the line, because your number already hit and now it's not due. Play the opposite number because that one is still due.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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January 20th, 2021 at 6:29:43 AM permalink
Quote: Headlock

So is the chance of two rolls in a row being any number other than 7 .83333 to the second power?



That is right (5/6)^2 = 69.44%.

Quote:

And the chance of three rolls in a row no seven .83333 to the third power?



Yes.

Quote:

If my calculations are correct, the chance of 10 rolls without a seven is .83333 to the 10th power, or .16151.

Am I right?



Yes.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Headlock
Headlock
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January 20th, 2021 at 2:21:23 PM permalink
I realized last night when I was in bed reviewing the day that I did not give enough information. So lets say $260 across. $25 each except $30 on the six and eight.
unJon
unJon
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January 20th, 2021 at 2:24:26 PM permalink
Quote: Headlock

I realized last night when I was in bed reviewing the day that I did not give enough information. So lets say $260 across. $25 each except $30 on the six and eight.



So your question is, given the shooter threw 10 non-seven numbers, what’s the expected winnings of this ten throws?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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