100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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August 17th, 2020 at 8:14:55 PM permalink
Wiz tweeted:
I moved off my analysis of the Replay craps side bet to a separate page and did a full math analysis via integral calculus, as opposed to the previous random simulation.
This page took at least a week to create and I consider probably the hardest side bet I've ever analyzed.

Google cant find it?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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August 17th, 2020 at 10:08:08 PM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/wizfiles/pdf/replay.pdf
It痴 all about making that GTA
Wizard
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Wizard
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August 18th, 2020 at 4:58:58 AM permalink
Main page: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/replay/.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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August 18th, 2020 at 7:44:53 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

https://wizardofodds.com/wizfiles/pdf/replay.pdf

25% house edge?!
jesus...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ace2
Ace2
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August 18th, 2020 at 7:58:20 PM permalink
I am trying to find a feasible way to calculate the edge for this bet using only algebra and inclusion-exclusion. Feasible meaning inclusion-exclusion formulas that don稚 have 100 terms.

It痴 fairly easy to algebraically calculate the odds of each event independent of other events. However, for all lines besides the top prize, you must calculate the probability of winning that prize AND not winning a higher prize, which makes the calculation considerably more complex and ideal for integral calculus, as the Wizard has done.

Perhaps one of the inclusion-exclusion gurus here would like to take a stab at this problem. I致e thought about it from many angles without success
It痴 all about making that GTA
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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August 19th, 2020 at 6:57:20 AM permalink
Cool alternative to the FireBet. Very interesting.

I have a question about the rules, which makes me also question the math.

What happens if a player is on a really hot roll and makes multiple numbers 3 or more times? Is the player paid for all qualifying wins?

I mean, I get that if the shooter makes four points of a certain number, then only the 4 or more gets paid - not both the 3 times and 4 or more times. But what about multiples?

I.E. If he makes the 5 three times, and the 8 four times, will the payout be 100 (for the four 8s), 95 (for the three 5s) or 195 (for both)?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
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Wizard
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August 19th, 2020 at 12:03:54 PM permalink
I assume he is paid for the highest win only.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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August 19th, 2020 at 1:06:55 PM permalink
Every side bet I can think of pays only the highest prize won, even if you necessarily qualify for lower prizes. Like the Fire bet, for instance

This particular bet is resolved by a seven out or hitting the highest prize of four 4s or 10s. In the case of the highest prize being won (1 in 27,000 trials) it would be at the casino痴 discretion to allow new bets to be made (same shooter). Same odds since it痴 an entirely new bet. All other cases will be resolved by a seven-out and new shooter
It痴 all about making that GTA
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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August 19th, 2020 at 6:30:17 PM permalink
Oh, I totally get the concept of only paying the highest qualifier. But in all those other games mentioned, it's impossible to have the higher qualifier without first having the lower qualifier. I.E. You can't have a 6 point FireBet without already having the 5 point.

In this Reply bet, it's possible (albeit rare) to have multiple numbers make 3 or more points.

I mean, unless I'm reading it wrong, this already has a less than 1% chance of paying. This question of multiple wins would be extremely rare.

And that rarity is the key. Perhaps they allow that multiple payout, since it will slightly reduce that outrageous house edge.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Steen
Steen
Joined: Apr 7, 2014
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August 21st, 2020 at 4:16:12 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Main page: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/replay/.


Nice job Michael!

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