ChumpChange
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June 24th, 2020 at 1:29:11 PM permalink
Does a Lay 8 bet of $24 + $1 vig up front count as a $25 bet for the table minimum of $25 or do I have to go to a Lay 8 of $30 + $1 vig up front because it PAYS $25?

Does a Lay 9 bet of $30 + $1 vig up front count as a $25 bet, or do I need a $39 bet + $1 vig up front because it PAYS $26?

Does a Lay 10 bet of $40 + $1 vig up front count as a $25 bet, or do I need a $50 bet + $1 vig up front because it PAYS $25?

WinCraps was just rounding my green chip lay bets on all numbers to $30 + $1 vig on a $25 table minimum.
onebok
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ChumpChange
June 25th, 2020 at 4:22:20 AM permalink
Vig is NOT the bet. The latter of your "or" clauses is the rule.
The lay must result in a win that is at the table minimum or higher.
That doesn't mean that you wouldn't get away with the former in many venues.
DJTeddyBear
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June 26th, 2020 at 5:07:54 AM permalink
I’ve tried at some $25 tables to PLACE $24 on 6/8 with $1 toke bets. Total $25 bet, right?

Some allowed it. Some didn’t.

I guess what I’m saying is it depends. Try it.

Your mileage may vary.
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ChumpChange
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June 26th, 2020 at 5:50:25 AM permalink
I'm gonna need a $310 buy-in for ten Lay 8 bets, instead of $250.
I'm gonna lose $31 in vig for every 31 $30 bets I make.

Bah, it's not gonna work well with my progression. Gonna have to scout out a $15 table or buy-in for $500 with ten $48 Lay 8 bets.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 26, 2020
DeMango
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June 26th, 2020 at 2:53:13 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I’ve tried at some $25 tables to PLACE $24 on 6/8 with $1 toke bets. Total $25 bet, right?

Some allowed it. Some didn’t.

I guess what I’m saying is it depends. Try it.

Your mileage may vary.


In the grand scheme of things go $25 or $26. You lose 16 cents for the former, get $30 payout on latter. Easy to make bet proper at $30.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
TinMan
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June 26th, 2020 at 4:20:42 PM permalink
Other than craps and sports betting, are there any other lay bets/bets that pay less than 1 to 1? Slot machines sometimes return less than one bet but I don’t think of that as a lay bet. I can’t think of any other table games with lay bets.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
unJon
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June 26th, 2020 at 4:38:42 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

Other than craps and sports betting, are there any other lay bets/bets that pay less than 1 to 1? Slot machines sometimes return less than one bet but I don’t think of that as a lay bet. I can’t think of any other table games with lay bets.



Good question. Only thing that comes to mind is an over bet bluff in poker (laying that your opponent doesn’t have the hand to call). Not really the same thing.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ThatDonGuy
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June 26th, 2020 at 5:05:02 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

Other than craps and sports betting, are there any other lay bets/bets that pay less than 1 to 1? Slot machines sometimes return less than one bet but I don’t think of that as a lay bet. I can’t think of any other table games with lay bets.


Does the 5% commission on banker bets in baccarat count?
TinMan
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June 26th, 2020 at 5:14:39 PM permalink
That is an excellent point. Yeah, I’d call 19 to 20 for banker Bacc bet a lay bet. You are betting on a mathematical favorite (different from the commission in PGP/PGT where the underlying game is exactly even).
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
Ahigh
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petroglyph
January 16th, 2021 at 5:59:56 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Does a Lay 8 bet of $24 + $1 vig up front count as a $25 bet for the table minimum of $25 or do I have to go to a Lay 8 of $30 + $1 vig up front because it PAYS $25?

Does a Lay 9 bet of $30 + $1 vig up front count as a $25 bet, or do I need a $39 bet + $1 vig up front because it PAYS $26?

Does a Lay 10 bet of $40 + $1 vig up front count as a $25 bet, or do I need a $50 bet + $1 vig up front because it PAYS $25?

WinCraps was just rounding my green chip lay bets on all numbers to $30 + $1 vig on a $25 table minimum.



Vig is based on the win, not bet, amount on lay bets.
Vig is "UP-FRONT" at the Stratosphere and some other "high vigorish" dice-table operations like Silver Sevens (at least when it was Terribles)

Besides these two places, in 2016 anyway, every table was "vig on the win" -- which means that when you take down a lay bet at a "classy" crap-table in Vegas, they refund the vigorish along with the bet every time.

$31 place-to-lose wins $25 on 6/8 (IE: $1 vig-on-win which is refundable if bet is taken down)
$37 place-to-lose wins $24 on 5/9 (IE: $1 vig-on-win which is refundable if bet is taken down)
$51 place-to-lose wins $25 on 4/10 (IE: $1 vig-on-win which is refundable if bet is taken down)

You can calculate the house advantage using the model of "place to lose bets" optimized to have the lowest house edges at these specific bet-amounts where the vigorish can be rounded down to $1 in this special case. It's worse when winning multiples of $20, but consistent. That's the next best situation to be in on the edge.

BEST-CASE HA%:
===========
6/8: 1/(31+25) = 1.78571% HA
5/9: 1/(37+24) = 1.63934% HA
4/10: 1/(51+25) = 1.31579% HA

HA% for winning multiple of $20
=====================
6/8: 1/(25+20) = 2.22222% HA
5/9: 1/(31+20) = 1.96078% HA
4/10: 1/(41+20) = 1.63934% HA

Only one of these bets has a HA% low enough to be competitive with the pass-line without odds and/or a COME bet, which should be obvious.

The best time to bet these bets is when you genuinely feel that you can reasonably expect that more or less than the average number of pips are appearing on any random facial outcome of the dice. In those cases where the dice are not properly balanced at the time of manufacture, it is believed that there may possibly be some exposure to the casino. The exposure would be most likely to be available on the four or on the ten based on whether more (lay the four) or less (lay the ten) that the average number of pips are showing up.

That is:

Speculation 1: if want to bet that the "pips are lighter than the transparent resin" you should lay ten (one-face more likely face-up; six-face more likely face-down)

and

Speculation 2: if you want to bet the pips are HEAVIER than the transparent resin, you would want to lay the four (six-face more likely face-up; one-face more likely face-down).

I have made and I have been informed others have made as well, a spreadsheet where you can input the dice faces observed and show the house advantage under a variety of circumstances for the probability of a given facial outcome from a "stick of non-random dice" in play where the "modeled nonrandomness" is uniform among all cubes in the stick.
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ChumpChange
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January 16th, 2021 at 2:04:58 PM permalink
I'm trying to fathom HA based on different betting amounts, specifically on the lay 6 or 8, because that's as far as I've gotten today.
Vig on win only


Bet 5:6 Pay Pay HA
$24 $20 $19 2.2727%
$30 $25 $24 1.8182%
$36 $30 $29 1.5151%
$42 $35 $33 2.5974%
$48 $40 $38 2.2727%



And since a $30 bet pays $25 before the vig, does that bet count as a $25 bet on a $25 table minimum?

So what's the HA when the vig is paid upfront on all bets?
ChumpChange
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January 16th, 2021 at 6:44:19 PM permalink
Just found a betting scheme where I only lay the 6 or 8 if the bet has a 2.222% HA. So a $96 bet with a $4 vig pays $80; $4/$180 = 2.222%. But that's when the vig is paid to the dealer on a win. What's the HA when the vig is paid no matter what? Tables in my area seem to want a vig no matter what.
Ahigh
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January 17th, 2021 at 5:44:40 AM permalink
I had a long response, but tersely, you never play vig-up-front bets on craps. I wouldn't make myself look inept by discussing the details, frankly, either.
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ChumpChange
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January 17th, 2021 at 8:56:34 PM permalink
I thought I read that if the table minimum is $25, the prop bet minimum is $5, so I'd have to bet $5 on the hard ways if I chose not to make any other $25 bets.
So if the table minimum is $100 on the pass line, is the table minimum on the hard ways $25?
Chapz
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January 17th, 2021 at 10:00:12 PM permalink
Is this right?

Vig rounded down to $1

4/10: 1/(79+39) =0.8474% HA
5/9: 1/(58+38) =1.0416% HA
6/8: 1/(43+35) = 1.2820% HA
Ahigh
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February 15th, 2021 at 12:53:26 PM permalink
Quote: Chapz

Is this right?

Vig rounded down to $1

4/10: 1/(79+39) =0.8474% HA
5/9: 1/(58+38) =1.0416% HA
6/8: 1/(43+35) = 1.2820% HA



No. When the vig is rounded down, you're being shorted $1 out of $75 due to be returned.

1.33% is the HA%, which is one over seventy-five.

This is one of the few bets on the table with a lower HA% compared to the pass-line (flat without odds).

There aren't many. Combined with a double-pay, this is a great bet, but it goes to the case of the $20 multiple quickly, which is 1/60 which is 1.66% and not as good as the pass line.
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Chapz
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February 15th, 2021 at 1:05:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

No. When the vig is rounded down, you're being shorted $1 out of $75 due to be returned.

1.33% is the HA%, which is one over seventy-five.

This is one of the few bets on the table with a lower HA% compared to the pass-line (flat without odds).

There aren't many. Combined with a double-pay, this is a great bet, but it goes to the case of the $20 multiple quickly, which is 1/60 which is 1.66% and not as good as the pass line.



The example is laying $78 on 4/10 for a $1 vig vs. $1.95.

The edge goes down to .8474%, right?

Edit:

Or is it 1/79 1.27%?

All assuming vig is paid upfront.
Last edited by: Chapz on Feb 15, 2021
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