Fire Bet
December 13th, 2019 at 12:48:17 PM
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The house edge on the Fire Bet is calculated to be approximately 20%. I've been wondering though if the house edge can be reduced by laying the 5th and or 6th point to guarantee at least some win if the 5th or 6th point is not made.
December 13th, 2019 at 1:08:35 PM
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Quote: HeadlockThe house edge on the Fire Bet is calculated to be approximately 20%. I've been wondering though if the house edge can be reduced by laying the 5th and or 6th point to guarantee at least some win if the 5th or 6th point is not made.
The edge on the Fire Bet doesn't change when you hedge. They are actually separate activities from a House Edge perspective, with each of the lay bets carrying their own edge.
You can guarantee a small profit, but there is a cost, namely the full win if you take down the 6th point.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 13th, 2019 at 2:34:12 PM
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Thank you. That makes sense.
December 13th, 2019 at 3:27:33 PM
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The best advice is don’t play.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
December 14th, 2019 at 10:09:50 AM
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Hedging the Fire all the way to the bank http://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/viewtopic.php?t=2564
I'm trying to crunch some numbers and deciding to bet $2 on the Fire Bet, and Lay $24 (+ vig) on the 4th number, Lay $90 (+ vig) on the 5th new number, and Lay $360 (+ vig) on the 6th new number. Maybe don't lay the 4 or 10 if it's the 5th or 6th number.
I'm trying to crunch some numbers and deciding to bet $2 on the Fire Bet, and Lay $24 (+ vig) on the 4th number, Lay $90 (+ vig) on the 5th new number, and Lay $360 (+ vig) on the 6th new number. Maybe don't lay the 4 or 10 if it's the 5th or 6th number.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 14, 2019
December 15th, 2019 at 6:11:53 AM
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Due to Lay Bet minimums: I'm trying to crunch some numbers and deciding to bet $5 on the Fire Bet, and Lay $60 (+ vig) on the 4th number, Lay $240 (+ vig) on the 5th new number, and Lay $960 (+ vig) on the 6th new number. Do not lay the 4 or 10 if it's the 5th or 6th number.
December 15th, 2019 at 8:31:22 AM
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So on a bet with a 20% house advantage, you are advocating three hedges with even more house advantage? My prediction is that you will lose money, lots of money.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
December 15th, 2019 at 8:54:17 AM
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Quote: DeMangoSo on a bet with a 20% house advantage, you are advocating three hedges with even more house advantage? My prediction is that you will lose money, lots of money.
Not to mention that hitting the six is a tax form.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 15th, 2019 at 10:05:09 AM
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I can win more when the 4th point doesn't hit, and when the 5th point doesn't hit, and when the 6th point doesn't hit.
If I'm gonna hit 20 $5,000 wins a year, maybe I'll reconsider the tax form hazard. #DI
If I'm gonna hit 20 $5,000 wins a year, maybe I'll reconsider the tax form hazard. #DI
December 15th, 2019 at 3:24:48 PM
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So the math works for everyone but you?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
December 15th, 2019 at 3:25:27 PM
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So the math works for everyone but you?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
December 15th, 2019 at 8:39:05 PM
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The odds of hitting all 6 points at least once before sevening out are 1 in 6,156.
What would be the odds of hitting all 6 points at least twice before sevening out?
What would be the odds of hitting all 6 points at least twice before sevening out?
It’s all about making that GTA
December 15th, 2019 at 8:46:23 PM
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Quote: Ace2The odds of hitting all 6 points at least once before sevening out are 1 in 6,156.
What would be the odds of hitting all 6 points at least twice before sevening out?
With or without dice influence? #yoleven
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 15th, 2019 at 9:16:38 PM
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Depends on whether you count numbers made twice in first go around. Otherwise 6,156 squared. Unless you are ChumpChange.Quote: Ace2The odds of hitting all 6 points at least once before sevening out are 1 in 6,156.
What would be the odds of hitting all 6 points at least twice before sevening out?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
December 21st, 2019 at 1:56:30 PM
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I get 1 in 5,668,725.Quote: DeMangoDepends on whether you count numbers made twice in first go around. Otherwise 6,156 squared. Unless you are ChumpChange.
Using the integral from zero to infinity of:
((1-1/e^(x*165/3960)*((x*165/3960)+1))*(1-1/e^(x*264/3960)*((x*264/3960)+1))*(1-1/e^(x*375/3960)*((x*375/3960)+1)))^2*1/e^(x*2352/3960)*2352/3960 dx
Last edited by: Ace2 on Dec 21, 2019
It’s all about making that GTA
December 21st, 2019 at 6:13:46 PM
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Hallelujah! Another mathematician who appreciates the fact that accurate analyses of dice behavior do require modeling out to infinity. Thank You Ace2.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
