What's the variance in Pass/Dont Pass with max odds?

Variance in Blackjack = ~4.
in video poker, variance of Jacks or Better = ~19.
For Ultimate Texas Holdem table game, the Wiz has said the variance is ~25.

What's the variance for passline (or dont pass) for:
1) 2x odds
2) 3/4/5x odds?

thx

The variance for BJ is about 1, not 4, btw. It's the main reason I won't play BJ much

For Craps, the below was posted by Alan Shank [goatcabin]. I saved it but failed to save the url for the post

note he lists the SD
_

Odds unitSD avg bet
0 0.999900005 1.00
1 1.893050027 1.67
2 2.857879771 2.33
Full 2 2.954695498 2.47
3 3.840744091 3.00
345X 4.91563184 3.78
4 4.830647323 3.67
5 5.824001368 4.33
6 6.819298375 5.00
7 7.815796102 5.67
8 8.813087262 6.33
9 9.810929899 7.00
10 10.80917128 7.67
20 20.80087901 14.33
40 40.7964868 27.67
50 50.7955876 34.33
60 60.79498419 41.00
80 80.79422548 54.33
100 100.7937679 67.6

mine is similar
craps pass line

Odds	Var	unit SD	avg bet
0	0.99980002	0.999900005	1
1	3.583638404	1.893050027	1.666666667
2	8.167476788	2.857879771	2.333333333
Full 2x	8.730225487	2.954695498	2.47
3	14.75131517	3.840744091	3
345X	24.16343638	4.91563184	3.78
4	23.33515356	4.830647323	3.666666667
5	33.91899194	5.824001368	4.333333333
6	46.50283032	6.819298375	5
7	61.08666871	7.815796102	5.666666667
8	77.67050709	8.813087262	6.333333333
9	96.25434547	9.810929899	7
10	116.8381839	10.80917128	7.666666667
20	432.6765677	20.80087901	14.33333333
40	1664.353335	40.7964868	27.66666667
50	2580.191719	50.7955876	34.33333333
60	3696.030103	60.79498419	41
80	6527.706871	80.79422548	54.33333333
100	10159.38364	100.7937679	67.66666667

Quote: odiousgambit

The variance for BJ is about 1, not 4, btw. It's the main reason I won't play BJ much

For Craps, the below was posted by Alan Shank [goatcabin]. I saved it but failed to save the url for the post

note he lists the SD
_

Odds unitSD avg bet
0 0.999900005 1.00
1 1.893050027 1.67
2 2.857879771 2.33
Full 2 2.954695498 2.47
3 3.840744091 3.00
345X 4.91563184 3.78
4 4.830647323 3.67
5 5.824001368 4.33
6 6.819298375 5.00
7 7.815796102 5.67
8 8.813087262 6.33
9 9.810929899 7.00
10 10.80917128 7.67
20 20.80087901 14.33
40 40.7964868 27.67
50 50.7955876 34.33
60 60.79498419 41.00
80 80.79422548 54.33
100 100.7937679 67.6

thx!
interesting.. the higher the odds, the lower the house edge but the higher the variance.

as for my questions, i see from your chart:
2x odds = 8 var
3/4/5x = 24 var

so basically not much difference between 3/4/5x craps and ultimate texas holdem in terms of both house edge* and variance.
*.6% if you follow the Wiz's strat for uth vs .4% for 3/4/5x odds.

why wont you play blackjack because of low var?
why is var = 1 bad?

Quote: 100xOdds

Variance in Blackjack = ~4.
in video poker, variance of Jacks or Better = ~19.
For Ultimate Texas Holdem table game, the Wiz has said the variance is ~25.

What's the variance for passline (or dont pass) for:
1) 2x odds
2) 3/4/5x odds?

thx

I found the variance for the don't pass (counting 12 as push,) and here are my results:

Bet	Odds	Variance	S.D.
pass	2	8.16747679	2.85787977
pass	345	24.16343638	4.91563184
don't pass	2	8.13971304	2.85301823
don't pass	345	24.13567264	4.91280700

Also, here's the Wizard's page on variance in blackjack: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/.

Quote: 100xOdds

why wont you play blackjack because of low var?
why is var = 1 bad?

of course low variance means your sessions tend to stick more to the expected value, which is negative

Mathematically you can look at EV/SD ... in BJ your EV will approach the value of the SD rapidly. When it reaches 1 SD you can truly call yourself a fool for playing so long ... you had to have been lucky by a factor of 1 SD just to break even.

Quote: ChesterDog

<snip>Also, here's the Wizard's page on variance in blackjack: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/.

ChesterDog,

Thanks for the link: the photograph alone made it worth clicking, but left me wondering why the dealer drew a 7? And where are $25 chips purple?

Dog Hand

Quote: DogHand

Quote: ChesterDog

<snip>Also, here's the Wizard's page on variance in blackjack: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/.

ChesterDog,

Thanks for the link: the photograph alone made it worth clicking, but left me wondering why the dealer drew a 7? And where are $25 chips purple?

Dog Hand

That's a good question!

I can only guess that the dealer was probably male and completely distracted.

Quote: odiousgambit

of course low variance means your sessions tend to stick more to the expected value, which is negative

Mathematically you can look at EV/SD ... in BJ your EV will approach the value of the SD rapidly. When it reaches 1 SD you can truly call yourself a fool for playing so long ... you had to have been lucky by a factor of 1 SD just to break even.

ahh...
9/7 triple double bonus in vp has a var = ~90.
payback is 99.6%.
but you'll be losing BIG time until you hit one of the 3 big hands (Royal, quad aces with kicker, quad babies with kicker).

so i guess the higher the var, the longer the comitment (ie: deep pockets) to play the game till the variance evens out?