in video poker, variance of Jacks or Better = ~19.

For Ultimate Texas Holdem table game, the Wiz has said the variance is ~25.

What's the variance for passline (or dont pass) for:

1) 2x odds

2) 3/4/5x odds?

thx

For Craps, the below was posted by Alan Shank [goatcabin]. I saved it but failed to save the url for the post

note he lists the SD

_

Odds unitSD avg bet

0 0.999900005 1.00

1 1.893050027 1.67

2 2.857879771 2.33

Full 2 2.954695498 2.47

3 3.840744091 3.00

345X 4.91563184 3.78

4 4.830647323 3.67

5 5.824001368 4.33

6 6.819298375 5.00

7 7.815796102 5.67

8 8.813087262 6.33

9 9.810929899 7.00

10 10.80917128 7.67

20 20.80087901 14.33

40 40.7964868 27.67

50 50.7955876 34.33

60 60.79498419 41.00

80 80.79422548 54.33

100 100.7937679 67.6

craps pass line

Odds | Var | unit SD | avg bet |
---|---|---|---|

0 | 0.99980002 | 0.999900005 | 1 |

1 | 3.583638404 | 1.893050027 | 1.666666667 |

2 | 8.167476788 | 2.857879771 | 2.333333333 |

Full 2x | 8.730225487 | 2.954695498 | 2.47 |

3 | 14.75131517 | 3.840744091 | 3 |

345X | 24.16343638 | 4.91563184 | 3.78 |

4 | 23.33515356 | 4.830647323 | 3.666666667 |

5 | 33.91899194 | 5.824001368 | 4.333333333 |

6 | 46.50283032 | 6.819298375 | 5 |

7 | 61.08666871 | 7.815796102 | 5.666666667 |

8 | 77.67050709 | 8.813087262 | 6.333333333 |

9 | 96.25434547 | 9.810929899 | 7 |

10 | 116.8381839 | 10.80917128 | 7.666666667 |

20 | 432.6765677 | 20.80087901 | 14.33333333 |

40 | 1664.353335 | 40.7964868 | 27.66666667 |

50 | 2580.191719 | 50.7955876 | 34.33333333 |

60 | 3696.030103 | 60.79498419 | 41 |

80 | 6527.706871 | 80.79422548 | 54.33333333 |

100 | 10159.38364 | 100.7937679 | 67.66666667 |

thx!Quote:odiousgambitThe variance for BJ is about 1, not 4, btw. It's the main reason I won't play BJ much

For Craps, the below was posted by Alan Shank [goatcabin]. I saved it but failed to save the url for the post

note he lists the SD

_

Odds unitSD avg bet

0 0.999900005 1.00

1 1.893050027 1.67

2 2.857879771 2.33

Full 2 2.954695498 2.47

3 3.840744091 3.00

345X 4.91563184 3.78

4 4.830647323 3.67

5 5.824001368 4.33

6 6.819298375 5.00

7 7.815796102 5.67

8 8.813087262 6.33

9 9.810929899 7.00

10 10.80917128 7.67

20 20.80087901 14.33

40 40.7964868 27.67

50 50.7955876 34.33

60 60.79498419 41.00

80 80.79422548 54.33

100 100.7937679 67.6

interesting.. the higher the odds, the lower the house edge but the higher the variance.

as for my questions, i see from your chart:

2x odds = 8 var

3/4/5x = 24 var

so basically not much difference between 3/4/5x craps and ultimate texas holdem in terms of both house edge* and variance.

*.6% if you follow the Wiz's strat for uth vs .4% for 3/4/5x odds.

why wont you play blackjack because of low var?

why is var = 1 bad?

Quote:100xOddsVariance in Blackjack = ~4.

in video poker, variance of Jacks or Better = ~19.

For Ultimate Texas Holdem table game, the Wiz has said the variance is ~25.

What's the variance for passline (or dont pass) for:

1) 2x odds

2) 3/4/5x odds?

thx

I found the variance for the don't pass (counting 12 as push,) and here are my results:

Bet | Odds | Variance | S.D. |
---|---|---|---|

pass | 2 | 8.16747679 | 2.85787977 |

pass | 345 | 24.16343638 | 4.91563184 |

don't pass | 2 | 8.13971304 | 2.85301823 |

don't pass | 345 | 24.13567264 | 4.91280700 |

Also, here's the Wizard's page on variance in blackjack: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/.

of course low variance means your sessions tend to stick more to the expected value, which is negativeQuote:100xOddswhy wont you play blackjack because of low var?

why is var = 1 bad?

Mathematically you can look at EV/SD ... in BJ your EV will approach the value of the SD rapidly. When it reaches 1 SD you can truly call yourself a fool for playing so long ... you had to have been lucky by a factor of 1 SD just to break even.

Quote:ChesterDog<snip>Also, here's the Wizard's page on variance in blackjack: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/.

ChesterDog,

Thanks for the link: the photograph alone made it worth clicking, but left me wondering why the dealer drew a 7? And where are $25 chips purple?

Dog Hand

Quote:DogHandQuote:ChesterDog<snip>Also, here's the Wizard's page on variance in blackjack: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/.

ChesterDog,

Thanks for the link: the photograph alone made it worth clicking, but left me wondering why the dealer drew a 7? And where are $25 chips purple?

Dog Hand

That's a good question!

I can only guess that the dealer was probably male and completely distracted.

ahh...Quote:odiousgambitof course low variance means your sessions tend to stick more to the expected value, which is negative

Mathematically you can look at EV/SD ... in BJ your EV will approach the value of the SD rapidly. When it reaches 1 SD you can truly call yourself a fool for playing so long ... you had to have been lucky by a factor of 1 SD just to break even.

9/7 triple double bonus in vp has a var = ~90.

payback is 99.6%.

but you'll be losing BIG time until you hit one of the 3 big hands (Royal, quad aces with kicker, quad babies with kicker).

so i guess the higher the var, the longer the comitment (ie: deep pockets) to play the game till the variance evens out?