90crapsplayer66
90crapsplayer66
Joined: Jan 25, 2018
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August 2nd, 2019 at 6:31:00 PM permalink
Happy August Craps players,
I watched a youtube video put out by "Blue Collar Sports" titled "Crap Strategy with a Risk Free Seven"--part 3. He starts out putting $10 on both the Pass Line and the Don't Pass. Then he places a $90 bet ( I think ) on the 4, as a lay bet. He says if the 7 rolls, he'll win $45. I'm trying to figure the math on this payout---I guess the payout on the 4 and the 10, is 1 to 2, so $90 would pay $45.

Then he makes either $22 or $44 Place Bets on the inside numbers. It looks like he does all this before the initial Come-Out roll.
My question is: Can he legitimately go ahead and make that lay bet without having to first go through the "Don't Pass" or Don't Come."

Can you just place a lay bet ? With this strategy if you roll a 4, right off the bat, you lose $90. If you hit several numbers before the 7, (3 or 4 rolls) you'll come out ahead.

Thanks for your imput on this question,

Dick
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 2nd, 2019 at 6:41:44 PM permalink
I would say that you can do whatever the house allows you to do. As far as I can tell, at least one casino allows these sorts of bets to be made prior to a Come Out roll, it's just pretty unusual for someone to actually do so.

1.) If a Seven rolls, he'll win $45.

-I guess that's true if the bet is indeed $90 and the casino is paying him true odds. Do they have a commission-free Lay bet?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#toc-DefiningtheHouseEdge

In most cases, a 5% Commission is charged on the win on Lay Bets. The amount won would be $45, so the commission should be $2.25, which doesn't even break down right, so he probably has to pay $3 as they would round up.

2.) Can he make the Lay Bet?

-Yes. A Lay Bet just pays out at true odds, but generally a commission is charged on the win. That's the difference between a, "Lay bet," and, "Laying the odds." It's only called a Lay Bet because the payouts are the same as if you had laid the odds.

3.) "With this strategy..."

-It's very generous of you to call what he is doing a strategy.
Vultures can't be choosers.
90crapsplayer66
90crapsplayer66
Joined: Jan 25, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
August 2nd, 2019 at 7:46:27 PM permalink
Mission 146,
Thanks for getting back to me on this. Yes, he did pay a commission on his win, but he didn't say how much, and I couldn't see on the video. You are probably right to suggest a 5% commission, rounded up to $3.
It's a good video except you have to "fill in some blanks." I think this video would be hard to understand for a new person.
Thanks again,
Dick
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 2nd, 2019 at 8:45:22 PM permalink
Quote: 90crapsplayer66


My question is: Can he legitimately go ahead and make that lay bet without having to first go through the "Don't Pass" or Don't Come."
Can you just place a lay bet ?


First thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers.
Nah, first thing is we kill all those who don't want to learn the basic craps bets and be precise in their terminology.

WHY would he first go through a Don'Pass bet and what on earth do YOU mean by "go through" anyway?

And what is this "place a lay bet"???

You do not place your chips in the rail, you do not place your drink on the ledge, you do not place your hands on the cocktail waitress's anatomy, you do not place a stack of chips on the Pass Line. Place is a defined term at a craps game, try to avoid using it unless referring to a Place Bet. Its like Win, Place and Show at a Race Track: use words properly or do not use them at all. Do not confuse a craps dealer and do not confuse us.

You can make a Passline bet or you can position your chips on the Passline. You can touch the cocktail waitress but you risk getting your face slapped, but avoid saying "place".

you can make a lay bet or establish a lay bet but if it is a lay bet, don't say the word 'place' at all and don't say 'buy' unless you are referring to a BuyBet.

if you have a stack of chips on the passline and an Odds Bet that is positioned too close to it, someone may say 'let those bets breathe' or 'move those bets further apart but he will never say place them further apart.

learn
PassLine
ComeBet
PlaceBet
BuyBet
and the negatives such as DontPass Dontcome
and learn the odds bets
but most important learn the proper payouts and the likelihood of various events happening.

half the battle is to be precise in your terminology
the dealers often use lammers, little round tags with the word 'lay' or 'buy' on them. it avoids confusion and disputes.
Yeah, I know i'm being harsh on you but it really will help you.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 3rd, 2019 at 6:37:56 AM permalink
Quote: 90crapsplayer66

Mission 146,
Thanks for getting back to me on this. Yes, he did pay a commission on his win, but he didn't say how much, and I couldn't see on the video. You are probably right to suggest a 5% commission, rounded up to $3.
It's a good video except you have to "fill in some blanks." I think this video would be hard to understand for a new person.
Thanks again,
Dick



You're welcome. That's basically the point I was making, any strategy can look better when the person is saying, "I win $45," when he is not actually winning $45. He's winning $45 less a probable $3 commission, so it wins $42. More than that, the breakage on that bet ($2.25 rounding up to $3) makes it a much worse bet than it should be. He should do $40 to win $20 with an even $1 commission or $80 to win $40 with a $2 commission.

I didn't watch the video, I just read your description of it. I don't have to watch a video where the subject matter counts on a strategy of making seven negative expectation bets at once.
Vultures can't be choosers.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission14690crapsplayer66
August 3rd, 2019 at 11:35:53 AM permalink
Thought I posted this yesterday but a $45 payoff has $2 commission. No casino I know of would round up a $2.25 vig to $3. On the flip side a bought $35 4&10 usually produce a $1 commission.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 3rd, 2019 at 11:50:00 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146


I didn't watch the video, I just read your description of it. I don't have to watch a video where the subject matter counts on a strategy of making seven negative expectation bets at once.

Yeah, I didn't watch it either. Hedging is for politicians. Choose the pass line or choose the don't pass, don't try to hedge your bets.
90crapsplayer66
90crapsplayer66
Joined: Jan 25, 2018
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August 3rd, 2019 at 8:41:47 PM permalink
FleaStiff,
Thanks for your response. I guess I do agree with you that the"KISS" principle applies in Craps also. I'll play either the Pass Line or the
Don't Pass. Now, I confess, I'm still investigating the hedge bet idea, by putting $50 to $75 in the Don't Come after the point is established. What do you think about that? Also, if you did such a thing, would you hold off on having the dealer move your chips if the Come Out number (Come Out for the Don't Come) was a 6 or 8? Obviously, the 4 or 10 would be the ideal numbers. I know there is risk of a 7 rolling and losing your Don't Come bet.
Dick
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 4th, 2019 at 12:09:53 AM permalink
A ComeBet travels to the appropriate point number and that stack of chips becomes its own marker, irrespective of whether you have a fondness for that particular point number.

A DontCome bet travels to the appropriate point number and that stack of chips becomes its own marker but many dealers will allow you to call out "no action" solely because you are thereby giving up an advantage simply because you have an emotional preference for a Don'tSix rather than a Don'tFour. WHY do you want to abandon an advantagous bet for an EMOTIONAL reason? The casino lets you say 'no action' for its own FINANCIAL reasons, not for EMOTIONAL reasons.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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August 4th, 2019 at 1:37:24 AM permalink
it occurred to me that I had never seen stated what pulling back the 6 and 8 darkside would do to the house edge, and that it must be easy to calculate. I played around with it till I got it right with some help, the HE goes from 1.36% to 3.89%, see https://wizardofvegas.com/member/odiousgambit/blog/#post1942

so it is a matter of whether you want to nearly triple the house advantage in order to only take those bets that are more likely to win
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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