Farha123
Farha123
Joined: Dec 20, 2018
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December 26th, 2018 at 3:41:44 PM permalink
I知 trying to figure out how to get an expected return of a wager on a point number. Ex. I wager $10 on pass line and a point of 8 hits. Should it be an expected return of .8333 (5/6 the odds of 8 hitting before a 7 ) or 45% (the percentage of the 8 winning). One should be losing avg $1.7 and the other $1 if I知 not mistaken. Or am I getting this stuff confused and I am completely wrong on how I should expect the return to be? Thanks if anyone could clear this up.
RS
RS
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Farha123
December 26th, 2018 at 3:46:48 PM permalink
Quote: Farha123

I知 trying to figure out how to get an expected return of a wager on a point number. Ex. I wager $10 on pass line and a point of 8 hits. Should it be an expected return of .8333 (5/6 the odds of 8 hitting before a 7 ) or 45% (the percentage of the 8 winning). One should be losing avg $1.7 and the other $1 if I知 not mistaken. Or am I getting this stuff confused and I am completely wrong on how I should expect the return to be? Thanks if anyone could clear this up.


5 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, total of 11 outcomes. Your return is:

5*$20 / 11 = $100/11 = $9.0909


Other way to do it is 5/11 you win $10 and 6/11 you lose $10.

$50/11 - $60/11 = -$10/11 = -$0.90909


Losing $0.90909 is the same as getting $9.0909 back.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 26th, 2018 at 3:53:15 PM permalink
The house edge of a pass line bet is 1.41%.
Therefore, the expected return is .9859 per dollar bet.

You really need to ignore the part about it being an 8. After all, any other number could be rolled...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Farha123
Farha123
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December 26th, 2018 at 4:25:23 PM permalink
Thanks, Appreciate the response. The second way makes it a lot clearer to me on understanding the math. The $20 on the first problem is for $10 on the 7 and 8?

So on the 4 the math would be: 3*20/9= 6.67?
Farha123
Farha123
Joined: Dec 20, 2018
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December 26th, 2018 at 4:26:23 PM permalink
Thanks, Appreciate the response. The second way makes it a lot clearer to me on understanding the math. The $20 on the first problem is for $10 on the 7 and 8?

So on the 4 the math would be: 3*20/9= 6.67?
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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Farha123
December 26th, 2018 at 9:50:08 PM permalink

Point Win Lose Flat Loss Loss/Point Odds Total Odds Total Line Total Bet Loss Percent
4, 10 3/9=$30 6/9 = $60 $30/9 $3.33 $25 $225 $90 $315 1.05714
5, 9 4/10 = $40 6/10 = $60 $20/10 $2.00 $10 $100 $100 $200 1.00000
6, 8 5/11 = $50 6/11 = $60 $10/11 $0.9091 $5 $55 $110 $165 0.55100


That last column might be wrong. I used Loss/Point divided by Total Bet instead of Flat Loss divided by Total Bet. I might have some time to re-edit later.
BlackjackLover
BlackjackLover
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December 27th, 2018 at 2:59:53 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

The house edge of a pass line bet is 1.41%.
Therefore, the expected return is .9859 per dollar bet.

You really need to ignore the part about it being an 8. After all, any other number could be rolled...


He means the house edge after a point of 8 is established. In the case, the house edge is 9.09%.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 27th, 2018 at 7:36:37 AM permalink
Quote: BlackjackLover

He means the house edge after a point of 8 is established. In the case, the house edge is 9.09%.

I knew that. I was pointing out that it痴 a very bad way to look at things since you can稚 insure that the point will be 8, or even that a come out roll with produce a point at all!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
RS
RS
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December 27th, 2018 at 9:30:17 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I knew that. I was pointing out that it痴 a very bad way to look at things since you can稚 insure that the point will be 8, or even that a come out roll with produce a point at all!


I don稚 think so, as I can imagine at least one reason why this would be good information to have.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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Farha123
December 27th, 2018 at 10:12:30 AM permalink
Quote: Farha123

Thanks, Appreciate the response. The second way makes it a lot clearer to me on understanding the math. The $20 on the first problem is for $10 on the 7 and 8?

$20 is what is returned to the player on a win for your $10 example.
Quote: Farha123

So on the 4 the math would be: 3*20/9= 6.67?

why not just use a $1 bet, that way you can just multiply out what total bet on the pass line, say $25 or $6 or $13
RTP
for a POINT
6&8 = 2*5/11 = $10/11 (round to $0.91 per $1 bet)
5&9 = 2*4/10 = $8/10 = $4/5 ($0.80 per $1 bet)
4&10 = 2*3/9 = $6/9 = $2/3 (round to $0.67 per $1 bet)

Come out roll
do not forget that the pass line can win on the come out roll. no point required
8 ways to win and only 4 ways to lose
2*8/12 = $16/12 = $1 1/3 (round to $1.33 per $1 bet)

why the question as some want to know
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

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