Quote:Farha123I’m trying to figure out how to get an expected return of a wager on a point number. Ex. I wager $10 on pass line and a point of 8 hits. Should it be an expected return of .8333 (5/6 the odds of 8 hitting before a 7 ) or 45% (the percentage of the 8 winning). One should be losing avg $1.7 and the other $1 if I’m not mistaken. Or am I getting this stuff confused and I am completely wrong on how I should expect the return to be? Thanks if anyone could clear this up.

5 ways to win, 6 ways to lose, total of 11 outcomes. Your return is:

5*$20 / 11 = $100/11 = $9.0909

Other way to do it is 5/11 you win $10 and 6/11 you lose $10.

$50/11 - $60/11 = -$10/11 = -$0.90909

Losing $0.90909 is the same as getting $9.0909 back.

Therefore, the expected return is .9859 per dollar bet.

You really need to ignore the part about it being an 8. After all, any other number could be rolled...

So on the 4 the math would be: 3*20/9= 6.67?

So on the 4 the math would be: 3*20/9= 6.67?

Point | Win | Lose | Flat Loss | Loss/Point | Odds | Total Odds | Total Line | Total Bet | Loss Percent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

4, 10 | 3/9=$30 | 6/9 = $60 | $30/9 | $3.33 | $25 | $225 | $90 | $315 | 1.05714 |

5, 9 | 4/10 = $40 | 6/10 = $60 | $20/10 | $2.00 | $10 | $100 | $100 | $200 | 1.00000 |

6, 8 | 5/11 = $50 | 6/11 = $60 | $10/11 | $0.9091 | $5 | $55 | $110 | $165 | 0.55100 |

That last column might be wrong. I used Loss/Point divided by Total Bet instead of Flat Loss divided by Total Bet. I might have some time to re-edit later.

Quote:DJTeddyBearThe house edge of a pass line bet is 1.41%.

Therefore, the expected return is .9859 per dollar bet.

You really need to ignore the part about it being an 8. After all, any other number could be rolled...

He means the house edge after a point of 8 is established. In the case, the house edge is 9.09%.

I knew that. I was pointing out that it’s a very bad way to look at things since you can’t insure that the point will be 8, or even that a come out roll with produce a point at all!Quote:BlackjackLoverHe means the house edge after a point of 8 is established. In the case, the house edge is 9.09%.

Quote:DJTeddyBearI knew that. I was pointing out that it’s a very bad way to look at things since you can’t insure that the point will be 8, or even that a come out roll with produce a point at all!

I don’t think so, as I can imagine at least one reason why this would be good information to have.

$20 is what is returned to the player on a win for your $10 example.Quote:Farha123Thanks, Appreciate the response. The second way makes it a lot clearer to me on understanding the math. The $20 on the first problem is for $10 on the 7 and 8?

why not just use a $1 bet, that way you can just multiply out what total bet on the pass line, say $25 or $6 or $13Quote:Farha123So on the 4 the math would be: 3*20/9= 6.67?

RTP

for a POINT

6&8 = 2*5/11 = $10/11 (round to $0.91 per $1 bet)

5&9 = 2*4/10 = $8/10 = $4/5 ($0.80 per $1 bet)

4&10 = 2*3/9 = $6/9 = $2/3 (round to $0.67 per $1 bet)

Come out roll

do not forget that the pass line can win on the come out roll. no point required

8 ways to win and only 4 ways to lose

2*8/12 = $16/12 = $1 1/3 (round to $1.33 per $1 bet)

why the question as some want to know