helpmespock
helpmespock
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December 24th, 2018 at 6:50:23 AM permalink
OK so Iím looking to double to a win of $1000 on my March Break trip in 2019. What I mean by that is that I start at the minimum, take my winnings, and plough it back into the next bet. My first try for this will be craps.

First candidate will be with craps on the x100 odds. I believe the Cromwell still has 100x odds. I believe the minimum is $15 on the front for that table. Hereís what I think a progression would look like on the pass line:

$15 front.
If a point is made then $100 on the back.

If I get a 6/8 on the first point then a win nets me $135 with a BR of $250.
If I get a 5/9 on the first point then a win nets me $165 with a BR of $280.
If I get a 4/10 on the first point then a win nets me $215 with a BR of $330.

Second point
$15 front, $200, $250, or $300 on the back depending on the first roll
6/8 wins a net of $255, $315, or $375 with a BR of $470, $580, or $690
5/9 wins a net of $315, $390, or $465 with a BR of $530, $655, or $780
4/10 wins a net of $415, $515, or $615 with a BR of $630, $780, or $1095

I would stop if it actually hit on 2 points of 4 and 10 in a row, but my actual winnings would only be $980.

Third point
$15 front, $400, $500, $600, $700
6/8 wins a net of $495, $615, $735, $855 and the BR is $910, $1130, $1350, $1570.
5/9 wins a net of $615, $765, $915, $1065 and the BR is $1030, $1280, $1530, $1780
4/10 wins a net of $815, $1015, $1215, $1415 and the BR is $1230, $1530, $1830, $2130.

I would stop at the third point even though 2 of the outcomes above are below the $1000 in winnings threshold.

I'll stop if I lose any point. I'll pull another $15 out of my wallet if I'm losing on the come outs at any stage.

Is there a better way to approach this? Michael Bluejay's article at Easy.Vegas on the double up says that free odds don't work as well according to his simulation. He recommends 1/4 of the bankroll and less on the odds.

--helpmespock
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 19, 2019
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 24th, 2018 at 7:26:56 AM permalink
If your sole goal is to double up playing craps you should bet your entire bankroll on Don't Pass. You 'pulling another $15 out" muddies the waters, because then we really haven't defined what your bankroll is. Since you seem to be happy with a chance of winning, and are not specifically concerned about exactly doubling up, your system looks fine, and should provide you with the action you are looking for.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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December 24th, 2018 at 9:08:03 AM permalink
90% of shooters don't make a 2nd point.
I'd break that up into 3 sessions of $300 and bet $15 line and $15 odds and see if you can double-up a session somehow.

I was playing WinCraps the other day and hit 10 in a row with come-out wins twice in quick succession. I've got a progression on that. My PB 6,8 were hardly touched and losing those on 7-outs just brought me down harder. Taking odds would have been a better choice in that round.
MrV
MrV
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Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
December 24th, 2018 at 10:02:30 AM permalink
Here is a link to a fifteen year old thread posted on a now-defunct board that may give food for thought:

Tough Craps

*click on the top-most thread title by tomhomerunsareboring for the explanation*

Very, very aggressive.
"What, me worry?"
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 24th, 2018 at 10:26:31 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

90% of shooters don't make a 2nd point.




𝑾𝑶𝑾!!!

if that was really true a person could make a fortune betting don't pass against a shooter who just made his point

someone please tell me if this is true

because if it is I shouldn't be here

you know where I should be...........😉
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 24, 2018
Please don't feed the trolls
DeMango
DeMango
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December 24th, 2018 at 12:55:33 PM permalink
If the chances are about 40% for making the first point, So making two points would be 16%, no?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Thanks for this post from:
DeMango
December 24th, 2018 at 1:11:48 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

If the chances are about 40% for making the first point, So making two points would be 16%, no?




that's only before you made the first point. not after

but come on. you already knew that
Please don't feed the trolls
Gialmere
Gialmere
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Thanks for this post from:
kgb92
December 24th, 2018 at 2:12:03 PM permalink
Kahless/Surak (yes I'm a TOS geek), do you have time to do a trial run on the dollar table at Jokers Wild?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
helpmespock
helpmespock
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December 27th, 2018 at 7:16:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

If your sole goal is to double up playing craps you should bet your entire bankroll on Don't Pass. You 'pulling another $15 out" muddies the waters, because then we really haven't defined what your bankroll is. Since you seem to be happy with a chance of winning, and are not specifically concerned about exactly doubling up, your system looks fine, and should provide you with the action you are looking for.



Ultimately yes I'm just looking for a little fun and action. The double-up goal of $1000 is completely arbitrary on my part.

I'm willing to risk $200 on this progression so that doesn't give me a lot of room to lose on come outs.

I don't think it matters because I'll probably lose the first point and walk away down $115. Easy come, easy go. 8-)

I'm often a don't player so doing a progression there might be fun too. I'll cook something up on the don't and post in this thread.

--helpmespock
helpmespock
helpmespock
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December 27th, 2018 at 7:28:33 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Here is a link to a fifteen year old thread posted on a now-defunct board that may give food for thought:

Tough Craps

*click on the top-most thread title by tomhomerunsareboring for the explanation*

Very, very aggressive.



Very aggressive indeed. Four points? I'm not that brave. I don't think I've ever bet more than a single pass line with a single come bet and that's usually at a low minimum with 2x odds table like Southpoint. I do dabble in a place bet on 6/8 from time to time or a buy 4/10 when there is no commission.

Interesting, but no Tough Craps for me.

--helpmespock
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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December 27th, 2018 at 8:49:37 AM permalink
If you want to expose the least amount to the house edge, the first bet should be 15 on pass and then whatever you need to bet on odds to make another 985 (495 if the point is 4/10, 660 if it is 5/9, or 825 if 6/8).
helpmespock
helpmespock
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December 27th, 2018 at 2:53:20 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If you want to expose the least amount to the house edge, the first bet should be 15 on pass and then whatever you need to bet on odds to make another 985 (495 if the point is 4/10, 660 if it is 5/9, or 825 if 6/8).



I concur, but letting it ride on a single point seems less fun to me.

As stated earlier, I'm willing to risk $200 trying this.

--helpmespock
helpmespock
helpmespock
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January 2nd, 2019 at 11:25:56 AM permalink
I've been noodling around with doing the double-up on the don't pass similar to what I've done above. I'm looking at starting with $15 on the front and then $120 on the back once the point is made.

My initial spreadsheet has it that I'll need at least three failed points to get to the $1000. I can get there in two points of 4/10 on the pass line.

I need 4 failed points if I'm working against points of 4/10 through the progression.

I think I'll stick to the pass line just to keep things simpler.

--helpmespock
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
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January 31st, 2019 at 8:31:09 AM permalink
I have a suggestion.

What if you did a $15 passline bet, $100 odds bet, and Buy 4/10 for $50 apiece, assuming those aren't the points? That puts you at about $215 of exposure, maybe $245 if you get unlucky on the comeout. If on the first comeout roll you don't hit anything, game over, you're done.

If on the first comeout roll, you hit your point you're going to have $165 or $140 in winnings, plus your $50 four and $50 ten stay up. Hitting any four ten wins you $98. Then you've got options. You can play it safe and just let that still high volatility bet ride, placing it again and having a reserve if you don't hit two points in a row. Or you can press your 4/10 on the second roll and press up your odds, putting yourself all in again. Assuming you hit one four or ten on the first comeout, hit your point (let's assume six), that would mean you'd have $215+98+120+15 after the first roll: $448. If you pressed that, you could do $150 4, $150 10, $15 PL, $120 odds. Or you could devote more to your odds just hoping for one more point to hit. At that point, you just need 3 numbers to hit to be close to $1000, or closer to two if you, say, hit a 4 or 10 and full press it to $300. If you don't choose to full press, you'll have the added bonus of up outcomes if you don't quite get there.

It's super high volatility: you will either lose it all or quadruple it in ten to twenty minutes. I bought in for $200 recently, similarly trying to basically get a big win or lose it. I bet 4/6/8/10 for $25/$30/$30/$25 with a $10 PL and $30 odds bet. I got it up to like $700 in twenty minutes and then it came crashing back down to a total bust in another ten. But it was similar to the type of experience you're describing.
helpmespock
helpmespock
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February 7th, 2019 at 4:07:07 PM permalink
Quote: dalsanto3

I have a suggestion.

What if you did a $15 passline bet, $100 odds bet, and Buy 4/10 for $50 apiece, assuming those aren't the points?



Interesting, but I'm not sure if I want to complicate things. I have done the Buy 4/10 at TI, but they only charge the commission on the win. I'm not sure if the Cromwell is the same.

With the $200 bankroll for the double-up attempt, I was intending to replace any come out that I lost from the $85 left. If I lose a point sometime before hitting the $1000 I'd also stop. That may mean I have some or all of the $85 left which is OK.

--helpmespock
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
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February 7th, 2019 at 4:12:43 PM permalink
Good luck! Update with how it goes.
helpmespock
helpmespock
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February 7th, 2019 at 7:59:28 PM permalink
Quote: dalsanto3

Good luck! Update with how it goes.



Will do, but you'll have to wait a bit. I'll be giving this a try on my March Break trip. I'll post a trip report including this once I get back.

--helpmespock
wilbsmitt
wilbsmitt
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February 8th, 2019 at 7:10:08 AM permalink
Quote: helpmespock

Interesting, but I'm not sure if I want to complicate things. I have done the Buy 4/10 at TI, but they only charge the commission on the win. I'm not sure if the Cromwell is the same.

--helpmespock



Cromwell charges on win only
helpmespock
helpmespock
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February 8th, 2019 at 4:17:50 PM permalink
Quote: wilbsmitt

Cromwell charges on win only



Thanks for the update. I still think I'll keep it simple and concentrate any winnings on the odds.

I must say I get a thrill of having a point of 5 or 9 with a Buy 4 & 10 and a Place 6 & 8 all up. I tried that the last trip playing at TI. Getting the 7-out quickly after putting out all that money is less thrilling.

--helpmespock

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