dalsanto3
dalsanto3
Joined: Oct 13, 2018
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 27
October 13th, 2018 at 9:05:23 AM permalink
Hello everyone. I am a new member and this is my first post, so please excuse me if I'm posting in the wrong place. I am looking for any feedback or thoughts on maximizing comps while minimizing my theoretical loss in Las Vegas. Any discussion or thoughts would be welcome, as I don't really have anyone in my life who is knowledgeable on this stuff for me to bounce my ideas off of.

I am currently linked with a host at the Bellagio who has offered me a comped fountainview resort room for three nights with a $350 daily food and beverage allowance for a 3-night stay in November of 2018. This was in response to an email that I sent her stating that I would be gambling at the Bellagio exclusively and that I planned on gambling $300 a roll for 4 hours a day, for a total of 12 hours of craps play. If it matters, my gaming history is basically 3 trips to MLife properties: one trip where I got nothing comped and lost about $3000 at the Aria, staying at the Vdara; a second trip where I got a comped room at the Vdara and lost another $3000, and a third trip where I stayed at the Bellagio in a comped room and got all room charges comped (~$300) and lost $700 (I considered that a big win).

Just to say at the outset, I'm not trying to beat the system. I understand the house has an edge and that at the end of the day I can't beat the house. I enjoy playing craps, I enjoy going to Vegas, and the entertainment value that I get from that is worth money to me. I live in a small town in Ohio and being treated to free rooms and drinks is a complete blast for me.

My plan is to find a $10 table at the Bellagio. Bet minimum pass line and max odds. Regardless of the point, I would be putting $280 on numbers. Buy $50 on 4; buy $50 on 10; place $90 on 6; place $90 on 8. Bellagio is vig on win only. This should give me $290 per roll for rating. If the point is any of those numbers, I will pressure the number with the same payout (e.g. point is 4, pressure 10; point is 8, pressure 6).

Now, when I plug those numbers into ADT calculators, I get a theoretical loss of about $5000. Here is one of them:

UR Comped Calculator

However, as I'm sure many of you know, buying 4/10 with vig on win only and placing 6/8 are some of the best bets at the craps table, with a house edge of around 1.5% and a smaller number of resolved bets per hour than say, a field bet. The following post breaks down cost per hour by bet type, which is a far more useful metric for this calculation:

American Casino Guide - Craps by the Hour

Using a 1.5% house edge, 100 rolls per hour, and 30 decisions per hour on the numbers bets, I calculate an ADT of closer to $550-600 and a total theoretical loss of approximately $1600-$1800. I would value my comps at approximately $2000, so if this is right, in my book my theoretical loss is about equal to my comps.

My planned bankroll is $6000. I plan to slow the game up as much as possible by playing only at the busiest tables. I also may attempt to reduce the bets to around $200/roll after say, the first hour, and hope to get rated on my original $300 / roll. I usually ask as I'm leaving the table how I was rated, and that would obviously be another way to reduce theoretical loss while getting rated at $300/roll.

My question to the forum is: is this strategy viable? Am I missing something? Are there areas for improvement? I've read a little bit about this on this and other forums, but I realize there are many people who know much more about this than me. I literally have not discussed this with anyone, so any feedback would be appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Edit: I'm not sure if my links are working.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 316
  • Posts: 8867
Thanks for this post from:
dalsanto3
October 13th, 2018 at 11:10:42 AM permalink
They won't let the new guys post links.

https://urcomped.com/vip/calculator/

https://www.americancasinoguide.com/craps/when-it-comes-to-playing-craps-time-is-money.html

Generally, advice [I think you've heard too] is not to play for comps. One question I would ask myself is "would I be living this lifestyle anyway?" or on less frequent basis, "would this exactly be my favorite way to vacation, because I like it so much?" If so, getting comped to do it can make sense . However, I would hope that would be a hard question for most people.

PS: part of the equation is definitely to ponder what these things would really cost if you lived that lifestyle and just paid for it yourself while looking for good deals.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
Joined: Oct 13, 2018
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 27
October 13th, 2018 at 12:23:52 PM permalink
Thank you very much for the reply. I agree that you should not play for comps, and I have read that before, and I don't disagree with it in any way. I play for fun, and I tried to make that clear in my original post. I've lost more money than I care to admit at the Hollywood Casino in Columbus getting no comps, no free drinks, no hotel stays, and no free dinners. I am looking to maximize comps given my spend level. I am also interested if I should expect to lose $6000 on this trip or if I should expect to lose $2000 on this trip.

Thanks again for posting the links and for your reply.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 54
  • Posts: 6406
October 13th, 2018 at 1:54:21 PM permalink
Quote: dalsanto3

Thank you very much for the reply. I agree that you should not play for comps, and I have read that before, and I don't disagree with it in any way. I play for fun, and I tried to make that clear in my original post. I've lost more money than I care to admit at the Hollywood Casino in Columbus getting no comps, no free drinks, no hotel stays, and no free dinners. I am looking to maximize comps given my spend level. I am also interested if I should expect to lose $6000 on this trip or if I should expect to lose $2000 on this trip.

Thanks again for posting the links and for your reply.

Hi, and welcome to the forum. A great first post. Sadly I have no answers to your questions... Sorry...

But a question? Have you considered the risk that your first play session might run bad and you have to either cut your wagering to an embarrassing level, or bring much more money out of your reserves?
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
ahiromu
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2107
Thanks for this post from:
dalsanto3
October 13th, 2018 at 2:57:09 PM permalink
I play even numbers at $25/$30 and press liberally, making long stops (collecting) at $50/$100 on the 4 and 10 and $90/$180 on the 6 and 8.

If you plan to rarely press, I think your bankroll should last you. I'm talking like... collect 5 wins before you start pressing. You will also lose 2-3 grand within a span of 30 minutes every 2-3 days, so be prepared, I'm talking situations where you go around the table (5-6 people), nobody hitting a point, and throwing 0-1 of your buy/place bets. If it happens within your first 6-8 hours there... be prepared to dig deeper. All I'm saying is to be prepared.

I don't see any situation where you can start at this level, press, and have a reasonable RoR (risk of ruin).

Also... what time of the week did you previously go to Bellagio/Aria? I'd be shocked to find out that they're at $10 on the weekend.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
Joined: Oct 13, 2018
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 27
October 13th, 2018 at 8:53:10 PM permalink
To answer the question about what if I have a horrible first session, I would say that honestly I have two thousand in emergency reserve. But $8000 actual loss would be the absolute limit. The plan would be to have $6000 in cash with me when I walk up to the table. I'm not looking to insulate myself for all possible bad variance, I would just like to keep my risk of ruin as you put it at below ten percent. I agree that you can and will hit cold streaks betting like this and sometimes it's about hanging long enough for a hot roll. I've been there for the seven out over and over again thing, and I agree with your assessment that it is likely to happen at least once over the course of twelve hours of play.

With respect to the tables, I was at the Bellagio last month and there were pretty regularly ten dollar tables, even at busy times. The Aria was different, it was fairly common that there was only $25 tables except at the not busy times. Even if I was stuck at a $25 table though, it wouldn't affect my betting strategy much, as I would still play my odds as if it were a ten dollar table.

Thanks for the feedback.
Last edited by: dalsanto3 on Oct 13, 2018
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
Joined: Oct 13, 2018
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 27
October 13th, 2018 at 9:02:39 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Hi, and welcome to the forum. A great first post. Sadly I have no answers to your questions... Sorry...

But a question? Have you considered the risk that your first play session might run bad and you have to either cut your wagering to an embarrassing level, or bring much more money out of your reserves?



I mean... The short answer to your question is that it's possible. I would stop gambling and hope my host would comp me based on actual loss verses theo. I would say my absolute loss limit is 8k, which at 25x my average bet I realize does not fully insulate me from bad variance. My hope is that I am insulating myself from all but the most disastrous set of rolls. I've read that to fully protect yourself you want about 100x average bet, which isn't realistic for me. At the end of the day, in my mind, it's gambling so really bad outcomes are possible, and I can live with it if so. Not that it'd be nothing - that would suck - but I'd be able to deal with it.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 3184
October 13th, 2018 at 10:45:27 PM permalink
Even a slot machine can take 80 spins of money from you with no money back like a real one-armed bandit. If you're playing a $100 machine on one line, there goes your $8,000.

A $25 table will take your money quick enough. How much did you want to take home?

I was just checking the HA on my $12 bets on the Don't Pass for 120 bets and $1440 bet x 1.4% = $20 to the house, which is hard to make up for with 2 $10 match plays.
dalsanto3
dalsanto3
Joined: Oct 13, 2018
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 27
October 13th, 2018 at 11:09:18 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Even a slot machine can take 80 spins of money from you with no money back like a real one-armed bandit. If you're playing a $100 machine on one line, there goes your $8,000.

A $25 table will take your money quick enough. How much did you want to take home?

I was just checking the HA on my $12 bets on the Don't Pass for 120 bets and $1440 bet x 1.4% = $20 to the house, which is hard to make up for with 2 $10 match plays.



House edge on Buy 4/10 is 1.67%. House edge on Place 6/8 is 1.52%. Each of those are per bet resolved. I am calculating at 100 rolls per hour, 30 numbers bets resolved per hour. Assuming as I stated earlier 12 hours of play and $180 in action per roll on the 6 and 8 and $100 in action on the 4 and ten, I calculate my theoretical loss as (30*12*.0152*180) + (30*12*.0167*100) = $984.96 + $601.20 = $1586.16.

There are a couple of assumptions there so if anyone doesn't think that's realistic for whatever reason please let me know. To answer your question, I would like to lose less than $2000.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 3184
October 14th, 2018 at 3:55:52 AM permalink
I'm always hoping a bet progression and a little bit of good luck can keep me above the EV, but then there's streaks of a dozen things going the opposite way and I'm suddenly working with terrified money instead of scared money, and I'm missing opportunities others are getting rich on.

I'm told $6000 might be a good starting bankroll for $5 Blackjack.
One of the professional dice people says he brings in 100 X his base bet to the craps table. He might buy-in for 20 units at a time, but if he loses 5 sessions, all the money's gone for the day.

I bring 10 units to play the line. It's hella boring but I could double or nothing my session money in 30-90 minutes usually. I've had more luck stringing together winning sessions on the Don't side, but it's too soon to draw conclusions.

I've had big wins on WinCraps with new strategies only to have them shot down by a steamroller P7O machine that thinks nothing of putting me 100 losses in the hole real quick.

If you're trying to win $2000 at the tables to pay for your vacation instead of using comps, try to win that in 3 sessions from the line using a progression. I'd start with $60, single bet, or $30 with $30 odds.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 14, 2018

  • Jump to: