Is Don't Pass really better than playing place bets?

At the craps strategy page the wizard says the best strategy is to place don't pass bats while laying odds. His decision is based on house Edge. if you consider frequency of rolls in that strategy the seven only rolls 2.7% more than the 6 and 8, in the short run it seems more profitable to make place bets on the 6 or 8, after you establish a point. That's it. No field, come, or horns. the house edge on place bets 6 and 8 is 0.46 while the house edge on the don't come is 0.001, but you are only making money 2.77% more frequently (theoretically) which is a unnoticeable amount unless you play 8 hours a day or more. So does the 2.77% more 7s that appear outweigh the combined 26% chance of rolling a 6 or 8? ((5\36=0.13*100=13%) so 13% +13%=26%

Can you re-phrase?

Sure, RS.

Which strategy will produce the most wins in a short 3 hour session of craps at a live casino.
Don't Pass with maximum odds
OR
Place bets on 6 and 8

Wizard of odds says that the best strategy is don't pass and laying max odds. Mathematically this would be the cheapest bet by 0.46% house edge and the most frequently won bet because there are more ways to roll 7 than any number.

Quote: Jackofalltrades

Sure, RS.

Which strategy will produce the most wins in a short 3 hour session of craps at a live casino.
Don't Pass with maximum odds
OR
Place bets on 6 and 8

if that is really your question, the answer (if it can be proven)
has no meaning, in my opinion.

the better question,imo, is which betting strategy has more losses over a short 3 hour session and what is that average loss?

any bet strategy is just an opinion as no one can prove that one system of play is 'better' than another.

I say a Lay bet strategy beats both
short term of course

Sally

of course, the betting system that makes one feel better is a better system than another.
craps play is about feeling good about what you do
and do not forget about how the shooter rolls the dice.
they NEVER roll the dice with a perfect roll distribution and some shooters are better at rolling winners than others.

maybe bet what the shooter rolls is the best short term betting system

I mean, if you win, that is a great bet!
right

HI Sally,
Yes in a live casino I have to bet with how certain shooters play. I was playing the don'ts and this lady hit her point number like 3-4 times in a row and cleaned me out. I think the best way to play is without other ppl. A table all to myself.
can you elaborate on your lay bet strategy please?

On occasion, if the tables are really cold, play the don't pass and lay full odds...then the don't come for three numbers and lay full odds. I've had good success with this as well.

Quote: Jackofalltrades

HI Sally,
Yes in a live casino I have to bet with how certain shooters play. I was playing the don'ts and this lady hit her point number like 3-4 times in a row and cleaned me out. I think the best way to play is without other ppl. A table all to myself.
can you elaborate on your lay bet strategy please?

Jack, I'd just like to make sure we're on the same page with a few things, mathematically.

Sure there can appear to be "hot" and "cold" shooters, but in the end every single roll of the dice, every single one, is random. So mathematically speaking, there is no such thing as a hot or cold shooter and it's the equivalent of red hitting 4 times in a row on roulette. Does this mean red is "hot?" No, it just means red happen to hit 4 times in a row and the next outcome will be completely random. Just because someone made 3 points on their last shot has absolutely ZERO BARING on what their next shot. The odds are all the same on every single random dice throw.

Now that we have the math out of the way, you're playing the game for entertainment, and to 'try' to win money even though in the long run of the game you mathematically can't beat the house edge. It really is up to the player. There is no 'best strategy.' If you want the 'best' that would be the system that loses the least, which technically would be to not play the game at all (since you can't beat it straight up in the long run). People debate the Pass and Don't Pass all the time, but really they're the exact same thing mirrored. On the DP you win more often, but you win less and lose more when you get picked. On the Pass you win less often, but win more and lose less (because of odds) when you get hit with the 7-out.

After those 2, every bet on the table has a house edge. Place bets, as you noticed, are multiples higher than the line bets and thus will result in you losing multiples more money in the long run. The Wizard promotes playing the don't pass with odds because it's the lowest house edge bet on the table, and an argument could be made that if one bets high enough odds then it could be possible to ride the variance wave for a long time in positive territory (assuming you get lucky, because if you don't you'll get pounded that much harder in to negative territory).

I think it was our Mustang Sally who said that she has never played craps in the long run.
So any mathematical analysis of rolls from historical data or simulation sure won't count for nuttin'.

It is YOUR money, your time, your plane ticket. Do you want me to tell you what the mathematically favored drink is?

As the old carneys used to bark "you pays your money and you takes your chance".

Did you make the bet that you chose? Did it win? Did you tell the cocktail waitress to bring you the drink that YOU wanted to enjoy.

Nothing prevents you from placing the six and eight and also being on the Don't Pass line.

I’ve always felt the best strategy is to get really good at guessing numbers.

In Las Vegas, placing the six and eight is ok. You can win if you manage your wager size well enough...However, all other locations including Reno, Lake Tahoe, Atlantic City, Aruba, Cruise ships both to a place and to "nowhere", Dominican Republic, San Juan, and all places in between and down under including South America and Australia, stick with the don't pass and martingale same using the lay bet, one number/point only.

Apparently it's possible for 10 out of 12 shooters to be consistent non-point shooters. Putting down a couple place bets and losing them 10 times, then 10 times again, then 10 times again, then 10 times again, then 10 times again and you're down 100 bets with only 10 shooters left out of 60 to recover. I'm gonna try my luck on the Don'ts.

Quote: FleaStiff

. Do you want me to tell you what the mathematically favored drink is?

Did you tell the cocktail waitress to bring you the drink that YOU wanted to enjoy.

Nothing prevents you from placing the six and eight and also being on the Don't Pass line.

What Romes said is accurate, but what fleastiff said is a good step to maximize comps... combine the two!

I recommend a rum and diet with a lime. It's a good drink for hot days.

Quote: prozema

I recommend a rum and diet with a lime. It's a good drink for hot days.

I would suggest instead a Rum and Real rather than a Rum and Diet, though in either case, the best thing is indeed the lime, particularly for FleaStiff who must wage a constant waistline battle.

Truth be told, I try not to play for comps but I do value "time at table" and don't think I could ever walk up and put my entire bankroll on one toss of 'the bones'.

I can, and have, often shot "from the Don't, hoping they Won't" and yet also had Place Bets on both the six and the eight. Yeah, I sometimes get weird looks from the dealers.

Quote: NokTang

In Las Vegas, placing the six and eight is ok. You can win if you manage your wager size well enough...However, all other locations including Reno, Lake Tahoe, Atlantic City, Aruba, Cruise ships both to a place and to "nowhere", Dominican Republic, San Juan, and all places in between and down under including South America and Australia, stick with the don't pass and martingale same using the lay bet, one number/point only.

What do you mean one number/point only? do you mean one Don't Come bet per point along with your Don't Pass with odds?

On the Don't odds: Is it better to put $20 odds on the 4,10; $15 on the 5, 9; and $12 on the 6, 8 for a common $10 payout,

or to bet $18 odds on all numbers for a $9 payout on the 4, 10; $12 on the 5, 9; and $15 on the 6, 8?

Quote: ChumpChange

On the Don't odds: Is it better to put $20 odds on the 4,10; $15 on the 5, 9; and $12 on the 6, 8 for a common $10 payout,

or to bet $18 odds on all numbers for a $9 payout on the 4, 10; $12 on the 5, 9; and $15 on the 6, 8?

Generally better to keep things simple for the dealers. They often aren't used to don't bettors and the payouts.

Quote: Jackofalltrades

What do you mean one number/point only? do you mean one Don't Come bet per point along with your Don't Pass with odds?

I mean either a Don't pass or a Don't come. I prefer the Don't pass because then the house is on your side.

Quote: NokTang

In Las Vegas, placing the six and eight is ok. You can win if you manage your wager size well enough...However, all other locations including Reno, Lake Tahoe, Atlantic City, Aruba, Cruise ships both to a place and to "nowhere", Dominican Republic, San Juan, and all places in between and down under including South America and Australia, stick with the don't pass and martingale same using the lay bet, one number/point only.

Does the place 6/8 bet pay or play differently in Las Vegas vs all those other places?

Quote: unJon

Does the place 6/8 bet pay or play differently in Las Vegas vs all those other places?

With a few exceptions, Paraguay being one, and the "Big Six/Eight" being the other, the pay/lay is standard 7 to 6 or 6 for a lay of 7. By "lay" I actually meant using the odds option where available which of course changes it to 6/5. All other places on earth seem to some how rig the games where the do players lose basically every session. Some exceptions duly noted but not mentioned. Bet with the house outside of Las Vegas has been my motto the last twenty years or so. Good luck.

Mathematically if you're aim is to play for enjoyment and minimise your expected loss over the period, then for continual action your firtst choice is either "Pass" or "Don't Pass" (or perhaps "Come" or "Don't Come"). In the long run Don'ts will cost you sightly less but by playing Pass if there's a hot table then you'll also be enjoying the payouts. Playing odds will not affect your expected cost but will make good times better and bad times worse - so that's your choice. If you're happy to play more than the table minimum then you're better off playing a minimum base bet with odds.

Mosca,
Of all the various strategies, this one is the best I've heard of. In fact this is so simple that I can see how it is universally overlooked.
How could I (a student of Craps strategies) have missed this most obvious solution to our
craps play??? I suspect I'll be realizing significant Craps winning results from here on out.....
Thanks Mosca
Dick