Craps Progression

I’m normally a flat better but on my upcoming trip to Vegas I’m going to try a progression to make things more interesting (volatile).

I’ll try the common progression where you double after a win, double again after two wins but stop there and return to the base bet. So max bet is 4 x base.

Can someone quantify how much my handle and variance (in terms of base bet) will increase assuming I always bet on the pass line, ignoring free odds bets.

Thanks
Ace

I’m not a math wiz, but let’s start with a pass line bet win probability of 0.49293 which has a house edge of 1.414%. You plan to “let it ride” twice and keep a 4x win. Probability you win is 0.49293^3 ~= 0.11977 by 4 for a ~0.479088 return. Sum that with the expected loss of -0.50707 for a house edge of ~2.7982%. I could be wrong. Can’t help you with variance or handle, but perhaps that’s a start.

Why not use the wins for odds instead?

If you want volatility, then why not go to the Cromwell, where they have the only 100x odds in LV, make a min pass bet ($10), and max odds that you can afford?

Low HE, and huge volatility. Best of both worlds.

Doesn’t make sense to ignore odds.

But to each his own.

Quote: klimate10

If you want volatility, then why not go to the Cromwell, where they have the only 100x odds in LV, make a min pass bet ($10), and max odds that you can afford?

Low HE, and huge volatility. Best of both worlds.

Doesn’t make sense to ignore odds.

But to each his own.

I'll tell you why, nobody DOES that.

The ratio of people proclaiming their own intelligence (even in their on HEAD) by knowledge of this phenomenon divided by the number of people that actually DO 100x odds yields an extremely high number.

Some of the smartest math guys out there make the most expensive plays (like tipping too much) because of the positive reinforcement of the environment to placing the high house edge bets.

This conversation about "why don't you bet the odds" is sorta like saying "why don't you go to the strip club, get in free, don't tip anyone, then go home and have sex with your wife."

The reason is that the "free volatility" causes too much f'ing trouble! It's ANYTHING but free more than half the time.

Just go home and F your wife and forget the strippers.

Or in your case, bet as much as you can on the pass line with no odds and enjoy your comps.

Are you saying that it’s better to make high HE bets because you know smart people who make high HE bets?

Are you also recommending that the bettor bet as much pass line as possible with no odds?

Quote: Ace2

I’ll try the common progression where you double after a win, double again after two wins but stop there and return to the base bet. So max bet is 4 x base.

a 3 step anti-Marty
sounds fun and frustrating too

Quote: Ace2

Can someone quantify how much my handle <snip>

I get an average unit bet of 1.7 (just a tad higher actually)

there seems to be something missing here
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

there seems to be something missing here
Sally

Odds

Quote: mustangsally

I get an average unit bet of 1.7 (just a tad higher actually)

I agree with that number.

After some introspection I found the formulaic solution.

The average wait for a single win is 2.03 bets, for two consecutive wins it’s 6.14 bets. You have to adjust these numbers for the bets immediately following a raise which don’t count toward the waiting time.

The adjustment is 1.5 for the single win (half the time progression ends there and half the time it goes to 4x) and 1 for the double win (next bet counts toward nothing).

So 1 / 3.53 x 1 + 1 / 7.14 x 3 =

70.3 % handle increase.

AceVentura 2 the Sequel:

"Ace 2 you ! you dirty bird ! How could you ?"

I was working hard to share my WISDOM with the forum by having the most recent 5 posts !

BONUS POINTS for figuring out the obscure reference WITHOUT using google.....

The average bet from simulation of 100,000 trials is 1.70249 times the base bet. This agrees with everyone else but I don't think I saw any answers to your variance question. I get a variance of 104.7918 and standard deviation of 10.2368 starting with a base bet of $10. The average number of rolls per decision is 3.38.


Steen