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Ace2
Ace2
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June 23rd, 2018 at 4:35:23 PM permalink
I知 normally a flat better but on my upcoming trip to Vegas I知 going to try a progression to make things more interesting (volatile).

I値l try the common progression where you double after a win, double again after two wins but stop there and return to the base bet. So max bet is 4 x base.

Can someone quantify how much my handle and variance (in terms of base bet) will increase assuming I always bet on the pass line, ignoring free odds bets.

Thanks
Ace
It痴 all about making that GTA
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
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DeMango
June 23rd, 2018 at 11:37:54 PM permalink
I知 not a math wiz, but let痴 start with a pass line bet win probability of 0.49293 which has a house edge of 1.414%. You plan to 斗et it ride twice and keep a 4x win. Probability you win is 0.49293^3 ~= 0.11977 by 4 for a ~0.479088 return. Sum that with the expected loss of -0.50707 for a house edge of ~2.7982%. I could be wrong. Can稚 help you with variance or handle, but perhaps that痴 a start.

Why not use the wins for odds instead?
Last edited by: BleedingChipsSlowly on Jun 24, 2018
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klimate10
klimate10
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June 24th, 2018 at 9:06:59 PM permalink
If you want volatility, then why not go to the Cromwell, where they have the only 100x odds in LV, make a min pass bet ($10), and max odds that you can afford?

Low HE, and huge volatility. Best of both worlds.

Doesn稚 make sense to ignore odds.

But to each his own.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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DeMango
June 25th, 2018 at 8:20:12 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

If you want volatility, then why not go to the Cromwell, where they have the only 100x odds in LV, make a min pass bet ($10), and max odds that you can afford?

Low HE, and huge volatility. Best of both worlds.

Doesn稚 make sense to ignore odds.

But to each his own.



I'll tell you why, nobody DOES that.

The ratio of people proclaiming their own intelligence (even in their on HEAD) by knowledge of this phenomenon divided by the number of people that actually DO 100x odds yields an extremely high number.

Some of the smartest math guys out there make the most expensive plays (like tipping too much) because of the positive reinforcement of the environment to placing the high house edge bets.

This conversation about "why don't you bet the odds" is sorta like saying "why don't you go to the strip club, get in free, don't tip anyone, then go home and have sex with your wife."

The reason is that the "free volatility" causes too much f'ing trouble! It's ANYTHING but free more than half the time.

Just go home and F your wife and forget the strippers.

Or in your case, bet as much as you can on the pass line with no odds and enjoy your comps.
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klimate10
klimate10
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June 25th, 2018 at 8:32:37 AM permalink
Are you saying that it痴 better to make high HE bets because you know smart people who make high HE bets?

Are you also recommending that the bettor bet as much pass line as possible with no odds?
mustangsally
mustangsally
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June 25th, 2018 at 1:07:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I値l try the common progression where you double after a win, double again after two wins but stop there and return to the base bet. So max bet is 4 x base.

a 3 step anti-Marty
sounds fun and frustrating too

Quote: Ace2

Can someone quantify how much my handle <snip>

I get an average unit bet of 1.7 (just a tad higher actually)

there seems to be something missing here
Sally
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DeMango
DeMango
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June 26th, 2018 at 12:35:51 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


there seems to be something missing here
Sally


Odds
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Ace2
Ace2
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June 27th, 2018 at 6:28:49 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I get an average unit bet of 1.7 (just a tad higher actually)

I agree with that number.

After some introspection I found the formulaic solution.

The average wait for a single win is 2.03 bets, for two consecutive wins it痴 6.14 bets. You have to adjust these numbers for the bets immediately following a raise which don稚 count toward the waiting time.

The adjustment is 1.5 for the single win (half the time progression ends there and half the time it goes to 4x) and 1 for the double win (next bet counts toward nothing).

So 1 / 3.53 x 1 + 1 / 7.14 x 3 =

70.3 % handle increase.
It痴 all about making that GTA
JohnnyQ
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June 27th, 2018 at 6:34:56 PM permalink
AceVentura 2 the Sequel:

"Ace 2 you ! you dirty bird ! How could you ?"

I was working hard to share my WISDOM with the forum by having the most recent 5 posts !

BONUS POINTS for figuring out the obscure reference WITHOUT using google.....
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Steen
Steen
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June 30th, 2018 at 5:12:50 PM permalink
The average bet from simulation of 100,000 trials is 1.70249 times the base bet. This agrees with everyone else but I don't think I saw any answers to your variance question. I get a variance of 104.7918 and standard deviation of 10.2368 starting with a base bet of $10. The average number of rolls per decision is 3.38.



If initializing script Then
cs1.betamount = 10 :
autohandle winning bets = "take bet and winnings" :
autohandle losing bets = "no bet"
EndIf

If passline wins Then
multiply by 2 on cs1.betamount
If cs1.betamount > 40 Then cs1.betamount = 10 EndIf
start new session(preserve checkstacks)
ElseIf passline loses Then
cs1.betamount = 10 :
start new session(preserve checkstacks)
EndIf

bet cs1.betamount on passline


Steen
Last edited by: Steen on Jun 30, 2018

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