6/8 bet

This is a simple question (I think) related to odds of winning on a particular place bet. My typical move is to start a roll with $10 or $12 place bets across on the numbers. My playing buddy does the same except he places $30 on each of the 6/8. Does either one offer a long-term payback? My contention is that the former system is better on a cold to warm table, and worse on a hot table. My friend says the latter is always better. Your thoughts?

Quote: Diceguy

This is a simple question (I think) related to odds of winning on a particular place bet. My typical move is to start a roll with $10 or $12 place bets across on the numbers. My playing buddy does the same except he places $30 on each of the 6/8. Does either one offer a long-term payback? My contention is that the former system is better on a cold to warm table, and worse on a hot table. My friend says the latter is always better. Your thoughts?

If I understand your friends bets, they are $10 each on the outside numbers and $30 each on the 6 and 8 for a total of $70 or $90 depending on the point. You will have $52 or $54.

Since all the bets have negative expectations, neither offers a long-term payback, but bigger, faster losses can be expected by your buddy, since he is exposing a larger wager to the negative expectation each roll.

Hi Diceguy, welcome to the forums.

Quote: Ayecarumba

...Since all the bets have negative expectations, neither offers a long-term payback, but bigger, faster losses can be expected by your buddy, since he is exposing a larger wager to the negative expectation each roll.

This is pretty much your exact answer. BOTH you and your buddy are playign a losing game, so neither "betting scheme" has any "long-term payback" other than losing your expected value in the long run. Your expected loss will simply be a bit smaller than his expected loss since you're betting less thus exposing less money to the house edge.

Check out the Wizards page on the basics of craps, and hopefully you'll get the idea of the house edge associated with each bet:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/

What it comes down to is: Whomever is betting LESS is going to lose LESS in the long run... but either way playing a game with a house edge you're both going to lose in the long run.

You have your answer, if you're betting on the same numbers, the one who bets more money will traditionally lose more in the end. This, of course, is thrown out the window if either of you press at all (this question, ultimately, depends on your betting patterns, since I highly doubt you both flat bet).

Alternative betting pattern: $30 on the 6 and 8 each, along with PL/come. The truth of the matter is that the 4, 5, 9, and 10 place bets are really bad bets. You're expected to lose a little less than 3x more on the 5,9 vs the 6,8 and 4x with the 9 and 10 (buying is equivalent to placing the 6,8). This is significant enough to avoid - I traditionally go through my bankroll 2-3 times an hour, so it can add up.

Stick with placing the 6,8, buying the 4,10, and/or pass,come with odds. The house edge is likely to show itself in the form of smaller than optimal wins. So yes, you will have good days either way you play, but your wins will tend to be "short" if you are wasting money by placing the 4,5,9,10. That said, play how you want, it's your money. Unless you start betting the big6/8, then it becomes a question of sanity.

(In the nicest way possible) - Drop the hot/cold/warm table talk, they do not exist. The dice do not have a memory and everything is random. Embrace the randomness.

Technically you're better off playing Pass or Come and laying the odds. However assuming you want to restrict your bets to Place bets the next best method is to place the 6 and/or 8. Suppose you did this and your friend bet all the numbers. On a bad day you could be unlucky and all the rolls seem to be 4,5,9 and 10 without any 6 or 8's. However on a good day they'd all be 6 and 8's. In the long term betting 6/8's loses least.

Similarly whether you press your bets will affect matters, you make more on a good day but lose more on a bad day.

Hello Diceguy

Best Wishes placing your box numbers. If Big Red stays away for a while then you may win some money. Here are some suggestions:

1. Emphasize the Six and Eight. They are more likely than the other boxes, they should contribute more to your overall revenue profile, and they suffer from less probabilistic disadvantage.
2. Buy the Four and Ten when you are able to make bets of $25 or larger.
3. Buy the Five and Nine when you are able to make bets of $50 or larger.
4. Do not increase your bets until you have fully recovered to your rails the total value of your spread. Doing so will require five hits, so just say "Same Bet" until after at least the sixth hit.
5. Intend to take your bets down. There is no need to inevitably lose your investment capital for each shooter.

Quote: pwcrabb

...5. Intend to take your bets down. There is no need to inevitably lose your investment capital for each shooter.

Rather than fleeing, choose a place bet "limit", (e.g., a number gets pressed to $1.5 or $3k). After it hits, lock up a chunk of cash by "resetting" all the place bets to 2X the original base bet. Then run your pressing progression again. Doing this allows you to continue to cash in if the 7 doesn't show. Hopefully, you can run the cycle a few times.