Craps idea? Need input

I have been spent the past couple weeks looking over various systems and would like to test something at a casino but would like comments please before I do.
Starting off with roughly 3 to 5k
1k Dont pass with a 60 dollar Yo and maybe a 150 3 way hop 7 to protect against the 7,11 come out
As soon as a point is made I immediately place a 1000 on that point

Sure it costs me roughly 200 every come out roll

But every time it hits I make
2000 on 4,10 minus 200
400 net on 5.9 minus 200
175 on 6,8 minus 200 is actually a loss
Plus the occasional come out roll winner

Is this wise? Or is there another potential cheaper way to protect against the 7,11?

Quote: triple19s

I have been spent the past couple weeks looking over various systems...

Is this wise? Or is there another potential cheaper way to protect against the 7,11?

Is it ever wise to bring money to a table to play a wager with negative expectation and positive house edge?
If so. please define 'wise'

Im confident that there will losses but for every 4 or 10 hit it makes up for 10 losses

Just do the math. It's not too hard. If you end up with a positive number, do it again. If somehow you get a positive number, you're either wrong or found something no one else has and it's beaten the math. Hint: Your number is going to be negative.

And a 4 or 10 hitting would profit you $950 (excluding the yo and 3 way 7). $1k pays $1950, minus your DP $1k bet is +$950.

I was thinking it was close to a 2 to 1, so pay 1950 plus your keeping your initial 1k

Its said to be the safest system, dont pass if theres a point, place the number and cant lose. I only increased the numbers dramatically

Quote: triple19s

I was thinking it was close to a 2 to 1, so pay 1950 plus your keeping your initial 1k

"Keeping" your $1k bet isn't profit.

Are you sure you've gambled before?

you have a huge edge after the come out roll on the dp. Why would you hedge it and diminish that edge?

Its said to be the safest system, dont pass if theres a point, place the number and cant lose. I only increased the numbers dramatically

I understand the edge after the comeout roll but theres still 7 ways to lose on the come out

Hedging reduces the variance; less variance is good for the House in Craps, not the player. Having said that, it is sometimes reasonable to want less variance than craps with odds represents, but I think I would just not make bets of 1000 units [or dollars]

I dont mind risk and I dont mind losing, but at the same time im not looking to just drop thousands of dollars. I feel like im on the right track but not completely there yet. I saw another post only playing the field and any 7 on every roll. Covering 61 percent of numbers, but the discussion was odd

Quote: odiousgambit

Hedging reduces the variance; less variance is good for the House in Craps, not the player. Having said that, it is sometimes reasonable to want less variance than craps with odds represents, but I think I would just not make bets of 1000 units [or dollars]

Craps is a volatile game. Shouldn't be playing craps if you don't like that type of game. He is essentially turning his edge into breaking even. Hedging is for idiots.

How should I be playing the game of craps then

Quote: triple19s

How should I be playing the game of craps then

Pass line and come bets with max odds or don't pass and don't come with max odds.

Quote: alphastorm

Pass line and come bets with max odds or don't pass and don't come with max odds.

In fact here is how to bet $1000 in Craps if you want to bet it in one big bet.

*If at a table where $1000 is the minimum, put it on the pass line. Yeah, no such table anywhere maybe, I'm just making a point.

*If at a table where, say, $10 is the minimum, and 5x is the free odds allowed, you could put $170 on the pass line and $830 on the free odds to make it 1000 [or you could ideally do $166 + 830 to make it 996*]

The thing is, you want to get the lowest house edge possible, which at 5x odds is 0.326% and the common 3x4x5x is similar. Your bankroll longevity at Craps will be greatly improved by averaging less than 1% HE for all your bets.

BTW 5k is not a large bankroll to use for Craps.

*and get dirty looks from the dealers for making it hard; this maximizes the benefit albeit less than 1000 too

The 210 (any 7 and yo) protection on the come out will add up... and when the 7/11 are rolled on the come out, these losses will add up over time as well. Perhaps you will hit a 2 or 3 at some point, but there are only 3 combinations for that to happen and not very likely.

Then, once the point is established, you are say 200-300 in the hole already. Now you need the point to be made just to make a little money... and more often you will see a 7 out and not recoup your protection money.

Quote: odiousgambit

BTW 5k is not a large bankroll to use for Craps.

*and get dirty looks from the dealers for making it hard; this maximizes the benefit albeit less than 1000 too

The starting bankroll is subjective and relative to what your expectation to win is. Its all relative to % gain. If someone were only looking to win 500 and be happy, then 5k bankroll is more than enough. If they are looking to win 25k, well then that is a different story.

Quote: triple19s

I have been spent the past couple weeks looking over various systems and would like to test something at a casino but would like comments please before I do.
Starting off with roughly 3 to 5k
1k Dont pass with a 60 dollar Yo and maybe a 150 3 way hop 7 to protect against the 7,11 come out
As soon as a point is made I immediately place a 1000 on that point

Sure it costs me roughly 200 every come out roll

But every time it hits I make
2000 on 4,10 minus 200
400 net on 5.9 minus 200
175 on 6,8 minus 200 is actually a loss
Plus the occasional come out roll winner

Is this wise? Or is there another potential cheaper way to protect against the 7,11?

Don't do this. Better to be on the pass-line on the come-out. Hedge nothing. Lower your bets some. over.

For each toss, each of the dice outcomes has a reliable and distinct probability. They cannot be considered to be equally weighted, although several of your opinions so suggest. Those distinct probabilities, combined with the casino payoffs, yield valid bases for analysis of the extensive menu of available bets.

The Bright Side (Pass and Come) has the win probability of 0.492929.....
The Dark Side (Don't Pass and Don't Come) has the win probability of 0.493131....
For practical purposes, they are essentially indistinguishable.

Evaluating the win probability of a bet after its Comeout toss is meaningless, akin to evaluating your sports bet at halftime. Your decision is already past.

I prefer the Bright Side for several reasons:
(a) Social cohesion
(b) Harmony with Place bets
(c) Money management preference for betting the low side of the Odds bets on established Points

Beyond double Odds, the incremental diminution of House advantage becomes trivial.

Managing the percent exposure of your table stake is far more important, because doing so keeps a lid on the consequences of negative variance. For a table stake of $1000, a Bright Side bet of $25 is very large, perhaps maximum.

Adjust your bet sizes to reflect your fluctuating table stake.

Quote: pwcrabb

Evaluating the win probability of a bet after its Comeout toss is meaningless, akin to evaluating your sports bet at halftime. Your decision is already past.

I know what you meant, but that's probably a bad analogy. There are times it might be appropriate to do so.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Quote: odiousgambit

BTW 5k is not a large bankroll to use for Craps.

The starting bankroll is subjective and relative to what your expectation to win is. Its all relative to % gain. If someone were only looking to win 500 and be happy, then 5k bankroll is more than enough. If they are looking to win 25k, well then that is a different story.

Maybe so, but it seemed to me the OP was taking comfort from the size of his bankroll. I would say it is adequate, too, but in his shoes I would still not be so much at ease [if he was thinking that]. Certainly for $1000 bets it was at risk.

OG - Agree.

Triple19s - by any chance, do you own a hobo bag?