Taking Odds

Hi. I play the pass line and a few come bets, and take odds on my point bet and come bets.

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea. The probability of rolling a 4, 5, 9 or 10 is low, compared to a 7 out.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Thanks.

taking odds is not a bad idea but you are right, they are harder to roll than 6/8.

Quote: EdwardjK

Hi. I play the pass line and a few come bets, and take odds on my point bet and come bets.

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea. The probability of rolling a 4, 5, 9 or 10 is low, compared to a 7 out.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Thanks.

Strange, it is almost as if the house compensates you for the lower probability by increasing the payouts of those numbers.

Welcome to the forums, Edward!

Taking odds on the 4, 5, 9 & 10 isn't a bad bet, but it does increase your variance. So, it is only a "bad idea" if you want to limit your variance (or have a very limited bankroll). It's a "good idea" if you want to lower the effective edge of your pass/come + odds bets.

Quote: sodawater

Strange, it is almost as if the house compensates you for the lower probability by increasing the payouts of those numbers.

Correct, but a higher payout does not change the probability.

Quote: EdwardjK

Correct, but a higher payout does not change the probability.

Technically (and please correct me if my understanding is wrong)y, they are paying you true odds, so the bet is really the same... As the odds go in favor of the casino, they pay you more (you can lose more often as you make more when you do win). So over time, statistically speaking, the casino "take" should be the same regardless...

Along the same lines, let's say my come point is a 4 or 10. What is the best bet for rolling craps before I roll my come point?

Once you establish 'the point', whether thru the Pass line or the Come, only two numbers matter to that bet - the Point number or s*ven. The bet is settled with either of those outcomes.

If the point is made, the flat portion of the bet is paid at even money, this is to the casino's advantage.

If the point is made, the odds portion of the bet is paid true odds. For 4/10 the odds are paid 2 to 1, for the 5/9 3 to 2, for 6/8 6 to 5.

Rolling a s*ven after points are established is termed 's*ven out' and those bets plus odds are lost.

Rolling craps after the point is established does not effect those bets. A Pass line bet (at 'come out') or a Come bet wager would lose.

I assume someone has already pointed out that ALL ODDS BETS (REGARDLESS OF NUMBER) are a 0% HE wager? As I did see others write, the 4/10 and 5/9 are less likely to roll, which is obviously why they pay you more on those odds than 6/8.

Quote: EdwardjK

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea.

Bad idea? Ummm, as others noted, you get paid an appropriate amount more to compensate for the lower probability of winning. But, as someone who likes to minimize variance, I understand your position.

Sometimes I will place "dealer odds" on my 4-10 pass-line bet, so they collect "extra" if it hits. Dealer-odds bets can be less than the minimum, and the first time I usually ask how they want me to put the chip(s), saying, "Those 4s and 10s need all the help they can get." On a $5 table (often available in Biloxi, where I play), $1 or $2 is fine. If I am betting a $10 PL, I may make a $5 dealer bet on the odds. My experience in Biloxi is craps dealers love anyone who puts them in the game.

Then (depending on the many non-quantifiable "intangibles") I'll place the 6 and/or 8 (taking them down after one hit). My PL bet (1.4% HA) and 2 Place bets (1.5% HA each) still keep the combined HA under 1.5%. If either wins (for example, at a $10 table, and not considering any dealer bet), I win $14 and then cannot lose on the roll-series. If the 4-10 hits (or the 5-9, if one of them is the point), I win $24 for the roll-series. If the shooter 7s out, I win $4. The House has limited opportunity to take me for $34, but it does happen. Yup, you sometimes sit for a while doing "nothing" except cheering on the shooter (if it isn't you). Betting this way, I can usually play for a long time, and (for me) that's the advantage of minimizing variance.

Of course, you bet with your money, so your mileage may vary. And, before I completely forget, welcome to the WoV forum. I'm always happy to see more gamblers like me you!

LuckyPhow,

Thank you for your reply. My trips to the casino involve meeting a friend for dinner and then going to the craps table for some fun. My objective is not to make money, but rather to minimize losses and maybe even break-even. Craps for me is just entertainment.

It was with this mindset that I asked my initial question. I was at the casino this week playing a $15 minimum table. My strategy was to play the pass line and two come bets and take single odds on all numbers. I was up about $100 before the dice turned cold and would up down about $68 for the evening.

During play, I was thinking about the probability of hitting a 4 or 10 when either was my come point, and whether I should take odds with such a low probability of hitting. Yes, I understand the payout will be higher than a 6 or 8, but the risk of loss is also higher. Again, with the objective of minimizing losses and/or break-even, I stopped taking odds on all come points except the 6 or 8. Was that wrong? I dunno. I'm just there to have some fun.

It's up to you... but again, technically it's the same bet when looking at it statistically... You will lose your money at the same rate as betting odds on the 6/8, or 5/9... There is not real difference when it comes to the cold stats of the bet... However, if you have a small bank roll on a higher pass line, you may not be able to play long enough for the statistics to even out on a colder table... I typically find the cheapest pass line with the highest odds allowed and play the minimum at the pass and as much as I can afford on the odds. a 3 or 5 dollar table with 100x odds would be ideal (I think Casino Royal used to have a table like that).

Maybe a compromise would be to lower odds bet on the 4/10 and raise them on the 6/8... IE, only put a 5 dollar odds on 4/10 and a 15 on 6/8 (just pulling odds bet amounts as an example... not as any strategy)? I'm sure others on here are much more versed on how that works out with a limited bankroll... but I would tend to say that if you have come or pass line bet on 4/10 you still want some amount of odds on it too as that is where the real bet is made back... jmo.

It is sometimes said this way: "taking the odds does not help you win more money"

But it depends on how you are betting. If you are happy with the amount of action you are getting on the pass line, then add odds if you want, or not. Unless ...

If you are betting more than the minimum on the pass line, everything changes - you could bet the minimum instead and more often than not put the additional amount you had been betting on the odds instead. I'd just make sure you're not making the mistake of not realizing this. If not, do as you please on the odds, there is not much of a case to make about 'right or wrong'.

Quote: EdwardjK

Hi. I play the pass line and a few come bets, and take odds on my point bet and come bets.

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea. The probability of rolling a 4, 5, 9 or 10 is low, compared to a 7 out.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Thanks.

Reeavulating, it would be much better to play the pass line and always take odds than to play the pass line with come bets as you are now.

Only make come bets to get more action if you're not happy with the action you get for maxed odds.

Come bets have a 1.4% house edge while free odds bets have a 0% house edge.

So if you want to get $25 in play per shooter it is much better to get as much of that $25 in the form of the free odds bet before you even consider making additional bets.

Quote: EdwardjK

Was that wrong? I dunno. I'm just there to have some fun.

Well, was it fun?

As everyone has said, odds bets have 0% house advantage, and the 4 and 10 are harder to hit but pay more. I have a friend who usually does 1x odds on 5/6/8/9 but does 2x on 4/10 for this reason--the EV is the same ($0) but he'd rather go for the big win.

If you want to minimize loss, you would lose slightly less overall by not making come bets. But come bets are fun. You would also have the same EV but less variance by not making odds bets. But those are fun too. So, your call.

Even if you're playing for fun, to not take the odds bet every time, regardless of the point, makes no sense to me. The payoff for the odds bet is always the fairest payoff in all of Vegas because it's simple arithmetic.
For me, a red chip player, the key to longevity at the craps table and the likelihood of coming away with more than when I started is to find a casino with as low a minimum as possible and as high an odds multiple as possible. For example, the El Cortez has a $5 minimum with 10X odds (and during the slow part of the day $3 minimum with the same odds). Your $15 pass line bet with single odds means you are putting out $30 for the possibility of winning $15 plus 2-1, 3-2, 6-5 times $15 depending on whether the point if 4 or 10, 5 or 9, 6 or 8. Let's say the point is 4. You'd win $15+$30. Consider that same $30 bet at the El Cortez. You put $3 on the pass line and if the point is 4, you back it up with $27 (9X). So you are wagering the same $30 you bet at the $15 table. Let's say the 4 repeats. You win $3+$54. $57 sounds a lot more attractive than does $45. The downside is that maybe you don't want to go downtown, don't want to play at a casino where the food is so-so and, yes, the El Cortez has a certain bouquet that not everyone appreciates. I go to Vegas to gamble and I like to have as little a disadvantage as possible when I do.

90/90/90 inside on 5/6/8, 50 in the field.

On field hits take the money.

On PB hits for 5/6/8 use a regression strategy and lower to 60/60/60 and 25 in the field. Only reduce betting after a 5/6/8 PB hits.

The table I use is:

90/90/90/50
60/60/60/25
30/30/30/10

If you reach a PB hit on the 30/30/30 line you take down your bets.

I normally do this strategy when I'm rolling the dice as I currently average 12 rolls.

For everyone else I do DP/DC on a small scale. I swap to PL if they hit 2 points and are dice setting.

Also, when I'm rolling I match 10/10 or 25/25 depending on the table minimum for the PL and the DP. This way I can take odds only and I'm only screwed by a 12.

Quote: EdwardjK

Hi. I play the pass line and a few come bets, and take odds on my point bet and come bets.

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea. The probability of rolling a 4, 5, 9 or 10 is low, compared to a 7 out.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Thanks.

There is another way to look at it… First, lets define some bets. For Pass/Come lets bet $10, we will also call this "x." You then bet odds at 3x, 4x, or 5x and Come again playing two come bets for action on three numbers total. If a Come hits, we will come again, always the same flat bet and odds ratio. When betting this ratio any point made pays 7x.

After we establish a point, lets say a 5 this time, our odds are $40, and we are on the Come, again for $10. We have a total of $60 in play, but we can only lose at most $40. Next roll lets say is a 10, 3x odds and come again. Now we have more in play, a total of $100 on the table with $90 at risk.

If we make the 5 or the 10 on the next roll, we will collect $70, off and on. Now we have $100 action at $20 risk. Next roll - 6 is the call, we will put 5x odds on our last Come. Now we sit on 5, 6, and 10, with $150 on the table. In this example we have already banked $70, so $80 at risk.

Let's hit the 10. Now we get paid $70, pick up our odds ($30), and Come again. Now we have $140 in the bank with $120 in chips on the table. Remember our new Come bet covers one of our flat bets so we are only at risk $110 of the $120 on the table, and it's the house's money.

If we had hit the pass line instead of a 10 - We always get paid 7x so we are still banking $140. We pick up our odds and are now sitting on 6 and 10 and coming out on the pass line. Math says we should work the odds for our established Come bets, I never do, leaving $30 in play but only $10 at "risk."

The above represents our best case scenario. What I am trying to convey is that the chips on the table are not always at risk.

To address your concern about odds for other than 6 and 8, look at the 3x, 4x, 5x odds ratio: When using this model, remember all points pay the same 7x. So 4-10 are less risk/easier to cover, because they are cheaper. It is just a slightly different way of thinking about the wagers. As long as ratios are applied payouts are the same. If you want to play at a higher odds table, say 20x, play the min for your flat bet and calculate odds for a higher flat bet. $5 pass then, as if $15, odds at $45, $60, $75. Whatever works, just remember 7x wont apply but they will all pay the same.

It is said that variance is the only way to win at negative expectation wagering. My theory is that by playing this way consistently, (three points with 3-4-5 odds) leverages the probable standard deviation swings over time. The trick is knowing when to leave and a bankroll that lets you survive (about 100x).
If the house wins in the long run, our advantage is walking away up.

Quote: ThenWhatHappens

The trick is knowing when to leave

I am starting to think this form of gambler's fallacy is just as prevalent or more prevalent than the classic one, "the Monte Carlo fallacy, or the fallacy of the maturity of chances"

By definition a 'true odds' bet is a fair bet, having no edge to the house and, alas, no edge to the player either. Its a great opportunity to make such a bet (emotionally) but all it really does is allow the casino to sheer the sheep faster by increasing the amount of the player's bankroll that is at risk.

If the dice are 'hot'... go for it.

If you want to last a bit longer, go easy on how much of your bankroll you are risking.

At least for me when a 4 or 10 is the point - if I put odds on my passline - then a seven is guaranteed before the point. If I decide that time NOT to put odds, then the point will hit before the 7. There is no variance in this reality.

So best strategy - play with me at the table and do the opposite.

Quote: slackyhacky

At least for me when a 4 or 10 is the point - if I put odds on my passline - then a seven is guaranteed before the point. If I decide that time NOT to put odds, then the point will hit before the 7. There is no variance in this reality.

So best strategy - play with me at the table and do the opposite.

Same durn thing happens to me. So, I put "dealer odds" on 4s and 10s. Those 4s and 10s need all the help they can get. Having the crew ride with me often saves my PL bet and -- win or lose -- makes for happy dealers.

Lucky
(...likes playing at tables with happy dealers.)