EdwardjK
EdwardjK
Joined: Feb 22, 2017
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February 22nd, 2017 at 7:05:38 PM permalink
Hi. I play the pass line and a few come bets, and take odds on my point bet and come bets.

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea. The probability of rolling a 4, 5, 9 or 10 is low, compared to a 7 out.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Thanks.
alphastorm
alphastorm
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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February 22nd, 2017 at 7:10:54 PM permalink
taking odds is not a bad idea but you are right, they are harder to roll than 6/8.
sodawater
sodawater
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RSDeMangoodiousgambitRomes
February 23rd, 2017 at 12:31:32 AM permalink
Quote: EdwardjK

Hi. I play the pass line and a few come bets, and take odds on my point bet and come bets.

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea. The probability of rolling a 4, 5, 9 or 10 is low, compared to a 7 out.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Thanks.



Strange, it is almost as if the house compensates you for the lower probability by increasing the payouts of those numbers.
Joeman
Joeman
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February 23rd, 2017 at 4:35:32 AM permalink
Welcome to the forums, Edward!

Taking odds on the 4, 5, 9 & 10 isn't a bad bet, but it does increase your variance. So, it is only a "bad idea" if you want to limit your variance (or have a very limited bankroll). It's a "good idea" if you want to lower the effective edge of your pass/come + odds bets.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
EdwardjK
EdwardjK
Joined: Feb 22, 2017
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February 23rd, 2017 at 10:54:16 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Strange, it is almost as if the house compensates you for the lower probability by increasing the payouts of those numbers.



Correct, but a higher payout does not change the probability.
Davisjl
Davisjl
Joined: Feb 23, 2017
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Chuckleberry
February 23rd, 2017 at 12:13:21 PM permalink
Quote: EdwardjK

Correct, but a higher payout does not change the probability.



Technically (and please correct me if my understanding is wrong)y, they are paying you true odds, so the bet is really the same... As the odds go in favor of the casino, they pay you more (you can lose more often as you make more when you do win). So over time, statistically speaking, the casino "take" should be the same regardless...
Last edited by: Davisjl on Feb 23, 2017
EdwardjK
EdwardjK
Joined: Feb 22, 2017
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February 23rd, 2017 at 12:37:58 PM permalink
Along the same lines, let's say my come point is a 4 or 10. What is the best bet for rolling craps before I roll my come point?
BasesLoaded
BasesLoaded
Joined: Jan 8, 2016
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February 23rd, 2017 at 1:57:40 PM permalink
Once you establish 'the point', whether thru the Pass line or the Come, only two numbers matter to that bet - the Point number or s*ven. The bet is settled with either of those outcomes.

If the point is made, the flat portion of the bet is paid at even money, this is to the casino's advantage.

If the point is made, the odds portion of the bet is paid true odds. For 4/10 the odds are paid 2 to 1, for the 5/9 3 to 2, for 6/8 6 to 5.

Rolling a s*ven after points are established is termed 's*ven out' and those bets plus odds are lost.

Rolling craps after the point is established does not effect those bets. A Pass line bet (at 'come out') or a Come bet wager would lose.
Romes
Romes
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February 23rd, 2017 at 2:09:17 PM permalink
I assume someone has already pointed out that ALL ODDS BETS (REGARDLESS OF NUMBER) are a 0% HE wager? As I did see others write, the 4/10 and 5/9 are less likely to roll, which is obviously why they pay you more on those odds than 6/8.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
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EdwardjKChuckleberryThenWhatHappens
February 23rd, 2017 at 2:22:04 PM permalink
Quote: EdwardjK

It occurred to me that taking odds on numbers other then 6 and 8 is a bad idea.


Bad idea? Ummm, as others noted, you get paid an appropriate amount more to compensate for the lower probability of winning. But, as someone who likes to minimize variance, I understand your position.

Sometimes I will place "dealer odds" on my 4-10 pass-line bet, so they collect "extra" if it hits. Dealer-odds bets can be less than the minimum, and the first time I usually ask how they want me to put the chip(s), saying, "Those 4s and 10s need all the help they can get." On a $5 table (often available in Biloxi, where I play), $1 or $2 is fine. If I am betting a $10 PL, I may make a $5 dealer bet on the odds. My experience in Biloxi is craps dealers love anyone who puts them in the game.

Then (depending on the many non-quantifiable "intangibles") I'll place the 6 and/or 8 (taking them down after one hit). My PL bet (1.4% HA) and 2 Place bets (1.5% HA each) still keep the combined HA under 1.5%. If either wins (for example, at a $10 table, and not considering any dealer bet), I win $14 and then cannot lose on the roll-series. If the 4-10 hits (or the 5-9, if one of them is the point), I win $24 for the roll-series. If the shooter 7s out, I win $4. The House has limited opportunity to take me for $34, but it does happen. Yup, you sometimes sit for a while doing "nothing" except cheering on the shooter (if it isn't you). Betting this way, I can usually play for a long time, and (for me) that's the advantage of minimizing variance.

Of course, you bet with your money, so your mileage may vary. And, before I completely forget, welcome to the WoV forum. I'm always happy to see more gamblers like me you!

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