Aruze E-craps a year later
January 16th, 2017 at 11:47:55 PM
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I stopped playing e-craps in Reno once the casinos started counter measures like increasing coin-in to get 1 point. I remember being in Circus Circus when they took down all the machines. The supervisor told me it was for "PM" or preventive maintenance. It was not until the next day the new signage was $20 coin in per point. Ouch.
I did stop back in Reno in August to play e-craps to teach some of my buddies in my network on how to beat the game. Most people I talked to believe an Aruze e-crap machine plays the same so it didn't matter which casino the machine was located. The hardest question to answer to my buddies was how do I consistently beat the game. I used an analogy of how the dice in real craps game was changed frequently but the dice in e-craps are changed infrequently. I stressed to them the importance of "idiosyncratic" variables. Our group made a "little" money based on my information from the different e-craps locations. Btw, since the downtown games had the lowest max bets, we made most of our money at GS & Nugget. Lastly, I also used up my remaining comps so we all ate very well. If I had to play today, I would play the Nugget since they have the highest limits but I am a consistent winner at GS.
Then in December, one of my buddies wanted to play Aruze e-craps but wanted to use a pen & paper system to be used on one machine. It took about two weeks to design a system to track the numbers and decide when to make bets using pen & paper. Trust, me it's much easier if you have the P-value and can look at the chi-squared stats and know immediately why the dice aren't hitting randomly.
And this gets to the reason for this post -- I decided to try out the pen & paper system myself at my local casino and it worked. I make money from the machine mainly from: (a) betting on 7-outs once a point is made and the math says this happens about 60% of the time and (b) betting on box numbers on a hot shooter (20 consecutive rolls without a red 7) -- sometimes I'll used an iron cross. I will leave out comments on delta hedging since the Wizard doesn't want comments on hedging to (a) increase the total action or (b) for min variance aka variance reduction techniques. One time at the Nugget, I started with $30 working and due to dynamic hedging, I had over $1,000 working but only about $10 or less at risk. When you want a 7-out, but you keep getting box numbers, the position blows up but due to the way I hedge, I pick up nickels and dimes to help offset my value at risk aka VAR -- meaning my true at risk was over $10 but because I made profits along the way, I couldn't lose more than $10 max. The most stressful part was shoving hundred dollar bills fast enough within 15 to 20 second bet window; thank goodness I had one $500 TITO in reserve, but I still had to shove $100 bills. I think I had $200 in the machine before the nightmare manifest itself. I quickly made a hard cap after that fiasco.
Here are the 3 main reasons why I am consistently making money off the e-craps machine (here, I am ignoring the slot club / reward club benefits):
1) I understand the idiosyncratic factors of this particular machine and have extensive data
2) I have helped some of the local yahoos make money so they help me out
3) from #1 & #2, I know when to bet on 7-outs & when to bet on box numbers.
I don't play live craps. I am purely a math / data driven player who tries to find an angle to beat this machine. I look for things; I challenge assumptions, etc. Here's how little I know about the game, on the come-out roll: 12 ways to end the roll & 24 ways to make a point. Once a point is made, the average number of rolls is 3.376 of which about 60% is a 7-out and about 40% will be the point (I can't recall it but it might be 40.6% for the point) -- it's easier for me to use about 60% & 40% when teaching the game to yahoos.
Here's a huge tip: the dice rolls may not be random; however, the amount of randomness may or may not be enough to overcome house edge of about 1.40% for pass / don't pass line odd (which is further reduced via odds bet). Btw, Aruze has a number of things it does to create artificial randomness like how the dice suddenly & immediately pops up at times versus the dice at rest when the shooter timer starts. All the math is based on the "dice" being fair or balanced. If the dice or the machine is not well maintained, and you can spot the bias, you will know when to bet on 7-outs or box numbers.
In my last 5 trips this year, had I followed my own advice, I would only make bets less than 20% of the time. When I got home and did a post game analysis, in one session, I would have made only 8 bets to 7-out in 42 series and I would have won 6 of those bets -- I am winning about 70% of my 7-out bets. However, 80%+ of my profits is from box numbers during hot shooters. You get a hot shooter, on average, once in two hours based on my data and you might go 8 hours without a hot shooter to 3 hot shooters within one hour.
Good luck.
I did stop back in Reno in August to play e-craps to teach some of my buddies in my network on how to beat the game. Most people I talked to believe an Aruze e-crap machine plays the same so it didn't matter which casino the machine was located. The hardest question to answer to my buddies was how do I consistently beat the game. I used an analogy of how the dice in real craps game was changed frequently but the dice in e-craps are changed infrequently. I stressed to them the importance of "idiosyncratic" variables. Our group made a "little" money based on my information from the different e-craps locations. Btw, since the downtown games had the lowest max bets, we made most of our money at GS & Nugget. Lastly, I also used up my remaining comps so we all ate very well. If I had to play today, I would play the Nugget since they have the highest limits but I am a consistent winner at GS.
Then in December, one of my buddies wanted to play Aruze e-craps but wanted to use a pen & paper system to be used on one machine. It took about two weeks to design a system to track the numbers and decide when to make bets using pen & paper. Trust, me it's much easier if you have the P-value and can look at the chi-squared stats and know immediately why the dice aren't hitting randomly.
And this gets to the reason for this post -- I decided to try out the pen & paper system myself at my local casino and it worked. I make money from the machine mainly from: (a) betting on 7-outs once a point is made and the math says this happens about 60% of the time and (b) betting on box numbers on a hot shooter (20 consecutive rolls without a red 7) -- sometimes I'll used an iron cross. I will leave out comments on delta hedging since the Wizard doesn't want comments on hedging to (a) increase the total action or (b) for min variance aka variance reduction techniques. One time at the Nugget, I started with $30 working and due to dynamic hedging, I had over $1,000 working but only about $10 or less at risk. When you want a 7-out, but you keep getting box numbers, the position blows up but due to the way I hedge, I pick up nickels and dimes to help offset my value at risk aka VAR -- meaning my true at risk was over $10 but because I made profits along the way, I couldn't lose more than $10 max. The most stressful part was shoving hundred dollar bills fast enough within 15 to 20 second bet window; thank goodness I had one $500 TITO in reserve, but I still had to shove $100 bills. I think I had $200 in the machine before the nightmare manifest itself. I quickly made a hard cap after that fiasco.
Here are the 3 main reasons why I am consistently making money off the e-craps machine (here, I am ignoring the slot club / reward club benefits):
1) I understand the idiosyncratic factors of this particular machine and have extensive data
2) I have helped some of the local yahoos make money so they help me out
3) from #1 & #2, I know when to bet on 7-outs & when to bet on box numbers.
I don't play live craps. I am purely a math / data driven player who tries to find an angle to beat this machine. I look for things; I challenge assumptions, etc. Here's how little I know about the game, on the come-out roll: 12 ways to end the roll & 24 ways to make a point. Once a point is made, the average number of rolls is 3.376 of which about 60% is a 7-out and about 40% will be the point (I can't recall it but it might be 40.6% for the point) -- it's easier for me to use about 60% & 40% when teaching the game to yahoos.
Here's a huge tip: the dice rolls may not be random; however, the amount of randomness may or may not be enough to overcome house edge of about 1.40% for pass / don't pass line odd (which is further reduced via odds bet). Btw, Aruze has a number of things it does to create artificial randomness like how the dice suddenly & immediately pops up at times versus the dice at rest when the shooter timer starts. All the math is based on the "dice" being fair or balanced. If the dice or the machine is not well maintained, and you can spot the bias, you will know when to bet on 7-outs or box numbers.
In my last 5 trips this year, had I followed my own advice, I would only make bets less than 20% of the time. When I got home and did a post game analysis, in one session, I would have made only 8 bets to 7-out in 42 series and I would have won 6 of those bets -- I am winning about 70% of my 7-out bets. However, 80%+ of my profits is from box numbers during hot shooters. You get a hot shooter, on average, once in two hours based on my data and you might go 8 hours without a hot shooter to 3 hot shooters within one hour.
Good luck.
January 17th, 2017 at 1:36:49 AM
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You must realize that without showing your data and how it is biased (no need to identify the particular machine), the only interpretation of this post is "system sale scam".
Let's see, two weeks on a machine, 14 hours a day, 2 rolls a minute. That is more than 23000 rolls. That might convince some of us.
Now, if you are planning to respond to this post by explaining how you can spot "idiosyncratic bias" whithin a few rolls, please don't bother. Find another forum, your post might convince a few "yahoos". Oh, and if you do, get rid of the "hot shooter" part. It totally gives the game away. Put in a few more chi squares instead. Those are impressive.
Let's see, two weeks on a machine, 14 hours a day, 2 rolls a minute. That is more than 23000 rolls. That might convince some of us.
Now, if you are planning to respond to this post by explaining how you can spot "idiosyncratic bias" whithin a few rolls, please don't bother. Find another forum, your post might convince a few "yahoos". Oh, and if you do, get rid of the "hot shooter" part. It totally gives the game away. Put in a few more chi squares instead. Those are impressive.
January 17th, 2017 at 2:09:06 AM
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If I found a way to beat any machine, I sure as hell wouldn't post it here.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
January 18th, 2017 at 7:02:27 AM
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I would, but only after the casino 86'd me from it.Quote: DeMangoIf I found a way to beat any machine, I sure as hell wouldn't post it here.
Idiosyncratic dice? The dice on those machines are for display purposes only, the settings are determined by the RPG chip.
January 18th, 2017 at 7:26:46 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffThe dice on those machines are for display purposes only, the settings are determined by the RPG chip.
teliot! Someone!! HELP!!!
Please say it ain't so! I find that really, REALLY hard to believe!
We're talking about the craps machines that bounce the big dice, right?
Lucky
(...not sure how the casino could do that, even if it wanted to.)
