Managing my bankroll properly (comparing scenarios)

Hi guys. Long long long time lurker, first time poster. I love the site and I'm a big two plus two'er for poker, so the math here is much appreciated.

I'm heading back to Vegas in 3 weeks and I'm trying to manage my bankroll properly as I intend to play a lot of craps this trip. I've tried doing some basic math but I don't know where I'm going wrong. I'm looking to determine the difference between two different playing scenarios. Basically, one is downtown with a 3-number action, and one is on the strip with 3-number action. I'm trying to avoid just playing the passline with odds, but I'm trying to balance that by reducing the house edge as well.

$5 pass line downtown, with 6x odds (just an amount chosen to control my bankroll). After that I want to work towards having 2 come bets up, $5 with 6x odds as well, for a maximum amount on the table of $105 at a time. I don't know how often I should assume I have 1x and then 2x come bets working at a time? At 120 rolls per hour, my expected loss per hour should be $2.52 on the pass line, and then like $1.60 on the first come bet and about $1.20 on the second? I don't know how far off that is because I don't know what % of the time I can expect those two come bets to be up for. Also, what's a realistic variance of loss, say within 95%? Is losing $400 or 500 an hour more likely than I think it is?

vs.

$10 with 3x odds, and then two $10 come bets with 3x odds, for a maximum amount on the table of $120. In this case my expected loss per hour increases a bit, as does the house edge. Can I expect to lose $400 or $500 an hour here often as well?

The different scenarios represent the likelihood that I'll be spending about half of my trip downtown, and half of it at Delano/MB and the surrounding MLife properties.

I'm stuck between two places that kind of work against each other here. I want to have action going in multiple places but I don't want to kill myself on the HE. My bankroll for 3.5 days is about $5000-6000. I'm trying to find a nice middle ground where I'm not likely to lose more than $2000-2500 in 10-12 hours of craps if I have a bad trip. Anyone have any suggestions on where I should be? Are those outlays above too much?

I'm thinking another situation I might consider is playing $5 craps with 10x odds and placing $12 on the 6 and 8, with the occasional full or half press to increase my action. This way I'm diluting the additional HE on the 6 and 8 place by playing more odds, and my bet per roll goes down overall.

I'm so lost! Thanks for any help!

Well, you need to know what the Standard Deviation is for the odds that you take, see below; the first row is free odds, the second is the SD for one roll

can you take it from there?

0 *** 0.999900005
1 *** 1.893050027
2 *** 2.857879771
Full 2 * 2.954695498
3 *** 3.840744091
345X * 4.91563184
4 *** 4.830647323
5 *** 5.824001368
6 *** 6.819298375
7 *** 7.815796102
8 *** 8.813087262
9 *** 9.810929899
10 ** 10.80917128
20 ** 20.80087901
40 ** 40.7964868
50 ** 50.7955876
60 ** 60.79498419
80 ** 80.79422548
100 * 100.7937679

You dont have to play every roll. If going against the wind, then just wind down. Have a beer and bet $1 on all hard numbers.

It's simple, Miami: If your numbers hit, you win; if they don't, you don't. End of story.

Quote: MiamiDave

I might consider playing $5 craps with 10x odds and placing $12 on the 6 and 8, with the occasional full or half press to increase my action.

Sounds good to me. Many properties have 3x4x5x odds since it is simple and moves fast. Its hardly worth shoe leather to seek out casinos by the odds they offer since most people never to the 10x much less 100x that some places advertise.

You can look at the various Avoidance of Gamblers Ruin tables for the ninety percent confidence interval of avoiding premature 'ruin' from not giving yourself a large enough bankroll to have a decent chance of not being wiped out by mere Variance.

You will be fine... don't try to dilute house edge. House edge is what it is and you just have to accept that house edge is the reason casino owners invest in casinos. You are there for the short term. Happy variance to you.

I've been modifying my intentions after reading your posts and looking online at some ruin charts. I think I'm going to just keep my average bet around $60-90 and cover 3 or 4 numbers. I'm aiming at something along the lines of:

Downtown
$3 pass, 6x odds, $12 6 & 8, two $3 come bets with 6x odds (will replace the place bets with the come bets if they stick)
or
$5 pass, 3x odds, $12 6 & 8, two $5 come bets with 3x odds (will replace the place bets with the come bets if they stick)

Strip
$10 pass, 2x odds, $12 6 & 8, two $10 come bets with 2x odds (will replace the place bets with the come bets if they stick)

It seems like my risk of ruin with say, $2000, over 10-12 hours would be pretty reasonable on those bets from what I saw in the charts. I can always adjust downward later on if I'm losing anyway.

Thanks for any help!

getting back to this, it does seem that your plans fit OK with knowing your EV for a session. Of course, there have to be assumptions. Not 120 but assuming 100 rolls per hour is going to be average, seems to work for me, then that means about 30 come out rolls per hour. I have found that if I want to keep *one* come bet up, that I average about 50 bets per hour, or lets say 49 - reason for that clear below

Quote:

$5 pass line downtown, with 6x odds

flat betting on the line and the come makes a calculation possible

See my post above - it indicates the SD for 6x and for one bet is 6.8 ..... I'll use 'do it in your head' .

You use the square root* of 49 if you accept my parameters = 7. So 7 times 6.8, see above, is also about 49 units for one standard dev- not precise but neither is a guess of 50 bets an hour. At $5, about $250. Two SDs are $500, 3 SDs are $750, and you mentioned 95% assurance, that last takes you close to that. Note that it's per hour - so playing 6x odds even with a low min like that your bankroll of maybe $5000 could be kaput in maybe 7 hours? [doing this in my head ya know]. Of course your luck would have to be bad. Of course you could win that instead of lose it [never expect that!] Of course you also factor the EV of the HE against 50 line bets per hour, but with this much uncertainty the -$30 or so is kind of a waste of time to factor too.

Quote:

$10 with 3x odds, and then two $10 come bets with 3x odds, for a maximum amount on the table of $120

You might be able to find the answer at WoO, but I don't know how many bets per hour it'd be - I'd guess close to double the 30 come-outs = 60. Close to 64 , and the sq root of that is 8. SD for one bet is 3.8, let's say 4. One SD is 32 units, two is 64, three is 96. Now we are mulitplying times $10. Three SDs are about a grand - that's per hour again.

Not sure I'll get to your 3rd scenario.

Someone may point out I've made a mistake, but this sort of calculating has served me OK in the past.

*see 'standard deviation' section at wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

Thanks Odious. I brought down my average bet about 30% in the later post here. I don't want to bankroll $5000 just for craps. I'd rather bankroll about $2000-2500 for 1200-1500 dice rolls. I'm going to keep my average bet around $60-90 early on. If I'm getting killed in the first half of my 1200-1500 rolls I'll drop my average bet down to $40-50 most likely. I think my $2500 should be safe unless I get really crushed based on what I've seen online and posts like yours and others.

@odious

I agree that the 3 SD point is around -$750 for one hour. To extend this to 'n' hours of play, you multiply by sqrt(n). So, the 3 SD point for 6 hours of play is $1837. So, a $2k bankroll would be very safe. Depleting a $5k bankroll would be around the 8 SD point...which happens once in every quadrillion or so trials.

Quote: MB

@odious

I agree that the 3 SD point is around -$750 for one hour. To extend this to 'n' hours of play, you multiply by sqrt(n). So, the 3 SD point for 6 hours of play is $1837. So, a $2k bankroll would be very safe.

I see. Thanks for the correction.

Quote:

Depleting a $5k bankroll would be around the 8 SD point...which happens once in every quadrillion or so trials.

for one hour, I guess you mean, since 3 SDs is nearly 2k at 6 hrs.

Quote: odiousgambit

I see. Thanks for the correction.

for one hour, I guess you mean, since 3 SDs is nearly 2k at 6 hrs.

Nope. For 6 hours. -$5k in 1 hour is a -20SD event, which is more rare than 18 yo's in a row. In fact, it's
mathematically impossible to be down $5k in 100 rolls.

Think about it this way. 1 lost bet is -$35 (with 6x odds). A winning bet pays $41, $50, or $65. For simplicity, let's assume every come out roll is either a 5 or 9. (It doesn't materially change the math.)

Assuming 600 line/come bets (6 hours x 100), to be down $5k requires more than 411 losses with odds (and less than 189 wins). The expected number of losses is 360 (remember we're only considering 5 & 9). But, 33% of rolls will not trigger the ability to make an odds bet (any 2, 3, 7, 11, 12). Assume we have the expected # of non-point numbers. Also, let's assume that an equal number of wins & losses on these rolls, which is exceedingly rare given 7 & 11 is twice as likely as 2, 3,
and 12. Out of the 400 remaining rolls, we need to lose at least 294 (and win less than 106). Hopefully this paints a picture of how incredibly rare it would be to lose $5k in 6 hours playing $5 line bets with 6x odds.

I realize that this explanation is convoluted and has caveats. I'd be happy if someone can explain it more clearly without relying on simulators and/or university level math.

Time is irrelevant for casino games. Your flat bet on Pass or Come now is identical to flat bets made two minutes or two days from now. There really is no reason to limit the number of flat bets, whether per shooter or per hour.

What matters is relative magnitude of exposure. Your flat bets combined with their Odds bets must combine to a sum that will not overexpose your table stake. The idea of Variance is a technical explanation of wild rides up and down. You must limit your bet sizes so as to not ride down to zero within just a few bets.

If your six flat bets with their respective Odds bets combine to a sum that is less than 15% of your table stake, then you will not ride down to zero anytime soon.

Keep in mind that you can achieve most of the diminution of House Edge by taking only double Odds. Using a proportionality argument, there are in fact very good reasons for taking only single Odds.

Really high Odds multiples do increase the wildness of your ride, but if you keep that 15% figure in mind then you should still play as long as you like.

I keep reading about losing. The key to craps is jumping on streaks and winning. After you have chips on the rail, don't give them back. Math doesn't apply in these short time frames. The key really to all gambling is jumping on streaks and them pulling back or quitting when the losing roll happens. Good luck.

Bet more on your winning rolls and less on the rest. It takes practice, and some balls but it can be done.

Quote: billryan

Bet more on your winning rolls and less on the rest. It takes practice, and some balls but it can be done.

Yeah. Where's Nostradamus when you need him.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Yeah. Where's Nostradamus when you need him.

Don't need no Frogs.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sytem+of+cheating+by++betting+more+on+winning+roulette+hands&view=detail&mid=499C7411ECB13470836A499C7411ECB13470836A&FORM=VIRE

Or google Richard Marcus, Savanah.

Quote: NokTang

I keep reading about losing. The key to craps is jumping on streaks and winning. After you have chips on the rail, don't give them back. Math doesn't apply in these short time frames. The key really to all gambling is jumping on streaks and them pulling back or quitting when the losing roll happens. Good luck.

Wait r u srs?

so pwcrabb, want to make sure I am understanding the 15%

so if my table stake is 300 for that session, 15% is 45
$5 table, 3-4-5x odds

using a 3 pt molly, 2 comes, 1 line

if i take the 45/3 for the flat bets and odds, that is 15, so 5 flat 10 odds on each, to maximize play time, waiting for a streak?