Analyzing a betting system

I completely understand how people feel about betting systems however I like having a uniform way of betting. There is a guy name Kerry Smyth on YouTube that made a video almost an hour long that some of you may have seen. He talks about putting x on pass line on come out roll, after come out betting 75 on D.C. , on third roll once D.C. has been established placing x on the remaining numbers and a x come bet (with x all being the same value) and placing odds behind pass line and if D.C. is even number placing a bet on the hardway. Now feel free to give opinions on this setup but I'm curious about the relation of D.C. bet to all other bets and if there is a multiplier that would be best to give the best expected value. I may be leaving something out but I think I covered the basics of the idea

Btw...

#1) if I have a place bet and a come bet and on the come bets come out it establishes the same point I have placed, the come bet replaces the place bet correct?

#2) if I have a come bet win with odds do i have to restart the process of betting the come again or does it stay on that point?

Thanks for the help

#1 it doesn't necessarily replace the place bet, but oftentimes, it will -- since people would rather take their place bet down and make it as odds onto the come bet (to get a better payout).

#2 yes, unless you want to "keep it up" or "place a point" [which offers poor odds], but allows you to keep the flat bet (come bet) there, if you so wish.



I think I watched that video a while ago. Is that the one where the guy starts with like $1k, then turns it into $5k, then loses almost all of it in one roll, then gets up to $10k or something towards the end? Yeah......that system's no good (well, just as bad as any other, I do declare).

Thank you for the response. No he starts at $300 and is betting a lot each roll but never really has a ton at risk at any one time finished at around 3000 or so. I have been trying to work through the math but trying to figure out what multiple to use for the don't come bet

Quote: stevenm0519

I'm curious about the relation of D.C. bet to all other bets

You can stop right there. There is no relationship among the bets, in that making one bet does not affect the outcome of the others.

There's a very simple way to look at craps betting systems. Consider each bet in isolation, rather than succumbing to the illusion that they are all connected somehow (because a given roll might decide several of them at once). Now, your results in the long run (the only frame of reference that is relevant) will equal the sum of all the expectations (negative, for most craps bets) of your bets.

The house edge on Pass, Don't Pass, Come, and Don't Come bets is 1.4%, rounded down. What this means is that when you put $100 on any of those bets, you've just lost $1.40. That's regardless of the actual outcome. The more such bets you make, the greater your loss, no matter what combinations or permutations of the bets you construct. Think of it as trying to keep adding minus $1.40 to minus $1.40 to minus $1.40 over and over, hoping to reach a positive number somehow. Impossible.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but I thought if I'm making the same bets with the same amount a dc bet would be gone if that point hit or it would win if the 7 hit but the pass would lose and the place bets would but if I'm betting 10 on the pass, come, and place bets, and 2x, 3x, 4x, etc on the don't come it would change the overall expected value of the roll

Quote: stevenm0519

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but I thought if I'm making the same bets with the same amount a dc bet would be gone if that point hit or it would win if the 7 hit but the pass would lose and the place bets would but if I'm betting 10 on the pass, come, and place bets, and 2x, 3x, 4x, etc on the don't come it would change the overall expected value of the roll

Don't make the mistake of connecting the various bets. If you placed $100 bets on the Pass and Don't Pass lines simultaneously, the EV of those two bets would be the EXACT same as if you had placed a $200 bet on one or the other. (An expected loss of $2.80 in each case.)

The more bets you make, the more you will lose. Regardless of how you arrange or distribute those bets.

Ok I think I understand what you're saying. So maybe the question I need to be asking is what percentage of bankroll should be the most at risk at any one time? (The idea is I want to have fun playing while I may win may lose who cares. But I want to have something happening every roll and I want to have a slow drain of my bankroll if I am losing)

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

The more bets you make, the more you will lose. Regardless of how you arrange or distribute those bets.

Ok, I've seen much info re: expected losses, etc. My question: So, if I come out ahead after a session, I still lost? I still see wins and losses in terms of how much ahead/behind I am after a session, several sessions, etc. What is the value of factoring in the theoretical loss, due to the HA?