The Difference In Double Odds vs. 3-4-5 ?

"Now, to give you an example, when someone has a three-four-five crap game, the house advantage is 37 basis points, 38 basis points. When you go to double odds, the house advantage is 58 basis points or 57 basis points. Now, that doesn't sound like a lot. That's a very narrow margin of a house advantage mathematically. However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."

Not sure what this means. When I've actually played very seldom do I see people taking much more than double odds, even in instances where ten and hundred times odds offered. Is this advantage and increase to the bottom line really that large? O O and God Bless You.

I could be wrong but a player that would take 5 dollar pass line and 50x odds for 250 behind may raise his pass line bet to 100-200 if he can only take double

Quote: Wizardofnothing

I could be wrong but a player that would take 5 dollar pass line and 50x odds for 250 behind may raise his pass line bet to 100-200 if he can only take double

In my experience, it is rare for a person who is playing $250-ish per bet to alternate between $5/50x and 100/2x. The players that are already making black-chip bets aren't usually in casinos where 50x odds are offered.

Quote: Wizardofnothing

I could be wrong but a player that would take 5 dollar pass line and 50x odds for 250 behind may raise his pass line bet to 100-200 if he can only take double

That's correct. He may...but as mentioned, I just didn't see it often. Granted, my experiences are a bit out of date but I think it holds. There was a time when Binions offered 100 X on even $1.usd bets and you still saw the retired folks in there for entertainment grinding it out with only $2.usd behind their $1.usd line bets. Same with the few $5.-$100.usd line bettors. Tables packed with dollar bettors including the acquired Mint floor space. Dealers and boxmen as well all in their senior years and plaid sports coats. Those were the days.

Quote: NokTang

"Now, to give you an example, when someone has a three-four-five crap game, the house advantage is 37 basis points, 38 basis points. When you go to double odds, the house advantage is 58 basis points or 57 basis points. Now, that doesn't sound like a lot. That's a very narrow margin of a house advantage mathematically. However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."

who are you quoting?

Quote:

Not sure what this means. When I've actually played very seldom do I see people taking much more than double odds, even in instances where ten and hundred times odds offered. Is this advantage and increase to the bottom line really that large? O O and God Bless You.

that so many only do double odds has to help a lot. That casinos are reluctant to do more than double odds, something you see clearly when there is no competition. This suggests they feel the effect when they increase them. However, I am ready to believe it's just another case of being affected by superstition more than anything. IMO there isn't a casino in the world that couldn't go to 3x4x5x and weather the change without blinking an eye. And it's easier for the dealers.

Quote: odiousgambit

who are you quoting?




that so many only do double odds has to help a lot. That casinos are reluctant to do more than double odds, something you see clearly when there is no competition. This suggests they feel the effect when they increase them. However, I am ready to believe it's just another case of being affected by superstition more than anything. IMO there isn't a casino in the world that couldn't go to 3x4x5x and weather the change without blinking an eye. And it's easier for the dealers.

Steve Wynn....recent investor call....with the implication it has made a difference which prompted my inquiry...Cheers mate.

OK, a Wynn quote

Steve Wynn perhaps contemplated this thing which has stumped me, and I will allow myself to imagine what was going on in his head:

*My people have been telling me we have to offer BJ games that are countable, and then spend tons of money on a big payroll and big equipment investment to catch the card counters, because BJ players expect these kinds of games and won't come at all if we don't have them.

*hmmmmmmmmmm , does that really make sense?

*and they are also telling me we should offer 6:5 BJ, because BJ players are nearly universally so stupid they don't know the difference

*that's no 'hmm', that totally makes no sense, the 2 things are in total contradiction to each other. We'll do 6:5 only! [I don't know that he made this decision, maybe just wants to]

*3x4x5x Craps .... they say we gotta have that

*wait, BJ players have proved to be dumb enough to play 6:5, so now I gotta think we won't lose Craps players! Back to 2x odds!

*I happen to know the smart people are the investors! Play to the smart people, not the morons!

of course it's classic disrespect for the people really paying the bills. What else is new?

"However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."

I still don't know what this means. What is a "granular analysis"? Thank you. (no, google didn't help me)

Quote: NokTang

What is a "granular analysis"? Thank you. (no, google didn't help me)

Oh, who knows what he meant, he's parroting some geeks on this maybe. I guess he's saying it's an anal study of the minutiae of the free odds aspect.

What he isn't saying is that Craps requires players making the middle table bets to be profitable, without that it'll be a huge loser every time for any casino. He should know there aren't enough players making the max odds bets to matter once he raises the table minimums - something he does like some kind of fiend, I have no doubt

Quote: NokTang

"However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."

I still don't know what this means. What is a "granular analysis"? Thank you. (no, google didn't help me)

I will take a stab at this, and I'm sure if I get some part of it wrong, it will be corrected by the dice experts.

It comes from having a $5 pass line bet, or multiples of it, and the corresponding dp bet.

I killed the details I'd typed because it's not something I can explain simply or well. But the problem is that you don't get paid true odds on all 2x bets, and the pay is under rather than over the fraction. On 3-4-5x, as long as you full bet them, you do.

So, on each bet where they don't pay true odds on a win, the table gains some basis points because of the underpay. If you do it to yourself by not playing the odds offered, the short pay is not built into the table, but if the house limit is 2x odds, it is. The HE for the basic game is the same, but your effective HE is slightly lower.

Odds: 5x odds and 3x4x5x odds are pretty much the same thing, the difference being speed and ease of surveillance.

2x odds is what most players tend to play no matter what is available. They will GRIPE about not having 100x but they will never actually bet at that rate.

Casinos compete on their marquees but rarely on the casino floor.

I'm told that your line bet should be what is required to play at highest comfortable odds since the part of your total bet that is the 'odds bet' is the only part that is free of a house edge.

However, those math types also tell me that its best to make but ONE bet and then walk away..... and ain't nobody that does that.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I will take a stab at this...you don't get paid true odds on all 2x bets

I think you boned the knife LOL

free odds pay 2:1, 3:2, and 6:5, so unless you fail to bet in increments of $5, or fail to take full 2x, or other uncommon situations, you can't fail to get paid right.

player mistakes to cause shortpay can happen, but it's not why a place would want 2x odds and not offer 3x4x5x, which has shortpay scenarios too [edit]

Quote: odiousgambit

I think you boned the knife LOL

free odds pay 2:1, 3:2, and 6:5, so unless you fail to bet in increments of $5, or fail to take full 2x, or other uncommon situations, you can't fail to get paid right.

player mistakes to cause shortpay can happen, but it's not why a place would want 2x odds and not offer 3x4x5x

I thought it was the dp side where you get shorted, which I mentioned? I could be wrong.

Of course, you COULD explain it to me AND him, since you know why the 2x odds cause a change in the basis points.... :)

Quote: beachbumbabs

I thought it was the dp side where you get shorted, which I mentioned? I could be wrong.

Of course, you COULD explain it to me AND him, since you know why the 2x odds cause a change in the basis points.... :)

any DP player has to be on his toes for the odds, as he has to consider the payoff as if he was right-betting first, then switch sides in his mind.

if playing 2x odds and the point is 5 or 9, for example, at a $5 table you would put $10 as a rightside player doing full odds, and it would pay $15 on a win. So as a darkside player you put that $15 as your free odds bet, to get paid $10 on a win. And, no, you would not be prohibited from placing $15 with a dealer fussing that is 3 times your bet instead of 2 times your bet.

Wynn's figures seems to come from the combined bet rightside, which can be seen in the link near the bottom. I say 'seems' because he's using the approximate figures for "full double odds" which is *a variation* from 2x odds. Maybe that is what they have, not 2x

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/

In a double odds game, tradition was with a $10.usd pass line bet, you could put $25.usd behind it, likewise lay $30.usd on the Don't Pass with the point being 6/8. I'm not sure where the "short pay" you refer comes from unless of course the player doesn't know and "only" plays $20.usd behind a $10.usd PL wager. Even then again, memory says he's paid $24.usd on a winner so don't get your point? On the other numbers the math is straight forward, no rounding against the player.

I think Mr. Wynn and his math guys are making the assumption all players take/lay full odds offered. I would think he's smarter than that, but who ever really knows. As players, we know as mentioned, most don't exceed double odds no matter what's on offer.

I do recall single odds games on cruise's to nowhere.