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CasinoCrasher
CasinoCrasher
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May 29th, 2016 at 1:24:04 PM permalink
I remember seeing a table that displayed variance versus house advantage posted on the Wizard of Odds site (HE vs. EV I believe) for pass and don't pass line bets in craps. I can no longer find this table, would someone be so kind as to show me where it is located.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 29th, 2016 at 2:19:20 PM permalink
this, maybe?

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
CasinoCrasher
CasinoCrasher
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May 29th, 2016 at 5:33:52 PM permalink
That looks really close but, what i'm wanting to do is calculate the house edge in craps for the pass or don't pass line with different levels of variance. To give an example, the house edge for 1, 2, 3, and 4 standard deviations from the mean house edge, and the number of points you would expect to see before a 7 out in each standard deviation.
RS
RS
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May 29th, 2016 at 8:20:30 PM permalink
Say what? "calculate the house edge...with different levels of variance"? Are you trying to figure out the expected number of points before a 7-out? How frequently you'll see a 0-point shooter, 1-point, 2-point, etc? (ie: 55% for 0 point, 20% for 1 point, 10% for 2 points....etc [made up numbers])?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 30th, 2016 at 3:42:27 AM permalink
Quote: CasinoCrasher

That looks really close but, what i'm wanting to do is calculate the house edge in craps for the pass or don't pass line with different levels of variance. To give an example, the house edge for 1, 2, 3, and 4 standard deviations from the mean house edge, and the number of points you would expect to see before a 7 out in each standard deviation.



Wow, you really are looking for something different.

Well, I can give you a list of standard deviations for various levels of free odds that were posted here once by Goatcabin - I haven't been able to find the post again, but here they are as I have saved them

Odds ......... unitSD
0.............. 0.999900005
1............ 1.893050027
2 ........... 2.857879771
Full 2 ... 2.954695498
3........... 3.840744091
345X ... 4.91563184
4............ 4.830647323
5.......... 5.824001368
6........... 6.819298375
7.......... 7.815796102
8.......... 8.813087262
9 ........... 9.810929899
10......... 10.80917128
20 ......... 20.80087901
40 ...... 40.7964868
50......... 50.7955876
60......... 60.79498419
80.......... 80.79422548
100...... 100.7937679
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mustangsally
mustangsally
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May 30th, 2016 at 6:24:22 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Well, I can give you a list of standard deviations for various levels of free odds that were posted here once by Goatcabin - I haven't been able to find the post again, but here they are as I have saved them

here is an expanded one from here

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/17968-standard-deviation-of-pass-versus-dont-pass/

This table counts the pushes as an event
OddsDon't Pass unitSDDP avg betPass unitSDPass avg betOdds
00.9859191.000.9999001.000
11.8857032.001.8930501.671
22.8530183.002.8578802.332
Full 2X3.0319543.172.9546952.47Full 2X
33.8371284.003.8407443.003
345X4.9128075.004.9156323.78345X
44.8277735.004.8306473.674
55.8216176.005.8240014.335
66.8172627.006.8192985.006
77.8140208.007.8157965.677
88.8115129.008.8130876.338
99.80951510.009.8109307.009
1010.80788711.0010.8091717.6710
2020.80021221.0020.80087914.3320
4040.79614741.0040.79648727.6740
5050.79531451.0050.79558834.3350
6060.79475661.0060.79498441.0060
8080.79405481.0080.79422554.3380
100100.793630101.00100.79376867.67100


OP looks to be trying to estimate something
that may be easily calculated exactly

who will know?
maybe 7 6s before a 7 sure-fire
betting system for a DI

that can never be calculated exactly
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
CasinoCrasher
CasinoCrasher
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May 30th, 2016 at 10:58:14 AM permalink
Pretty much. The Wizard shows some math I agree with for the average number of points before a 7 out as something like 8.53, so betting on the pass line you have your average pass line HE of 1.41 and you see on average 8.53 rolls before a 7 out. I want to extend this in affect to what the house edge is if you see 0, 10, 20, points before a 7 out, and what the the standard deviation is for each (so how often this can be expected to happen).

So in table form the column headings across the top would be...

HE... standard deviation... number of point before a 7 out
CasinoCrasher
CasinoCrasher
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June 19th, 2016 at 4:00:44 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Say what? "calculate the house edge...with different levels of variance"? Are you trying to figure out the expected number of points before a 7-out? How frequently you'll see a 0-point shooter, 1-point, 2-point, etc? (ie: 55% for 0 point, 20% for 1 point, 10% for 2 points....etc [made up numbers])?



Pretty much. The Wizard shows some math I agree with for the average number of points before a 7 out as something like 8.53, so betting on the pass line you have your average pass line HE of 1.41 and you see on average 8.53 rolls before a 7 out. I want to extend this in affect to what the house edge is if you see 0, 10, 20, points before a 7 out, and what the the standard deviation is for each (so how often this can be expected to happen).

So in table form the column headings across the top would be...

HE... standard deviation... number of point before a 7 out
RS
RS
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June 19th, 2016 at 4:26:58 PM permalink
Quote: CasinoCrasher

Quote: RS

Say what? "calculate the house edge...with different levels of variance"? Are you trying to figure out the expected number of points before a 7-out? How frequently you'll see a 0-point shooter, 1-point, 2-point, etc? (ie: 55% for 0 point, 20% for 1 point, 10% for 2 points....etc [made up numbers])?



Pretty much. The Wizard shows some math I agree with for the average number of points before a 7 out as something like 8.53, so betting on the pass line you have your average pass line HE of 1.41 and you see on average 8.53 rolls before a 7 out. I want to extend this in affect to what the house edge is if you see 0, 10, 20, points before a 7 out, and what the the standard deviation is for each (so how often this can be expected to happen).

So in table form the column headings across the top would be...

HE... standard deviation... number of point before a 7 out



Seems interesting. I may work on this a bit, but don't hold your breath.
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