My Adventure in Craps
p.s. There probably exists a dozen cures to all cancers in the world today. Companies like Susan G Komen have to release their tax information each year, and when I saw they're profiting nearly a quarter of a BILLION dollars per year I started to believe the quotes I'd heard before... There is no money in a cure. There's only money in treating the disease.
p.s.s. People beat cancer all the time with the technological advances we've made using our math and science. As you so eloquently put, it's only a matter of time before it's 100%. I just believe it's not our math and science is the reason it's not 100% yet.
Just saying.
Quote: PokerGrinderI want to start by saying Joel you are a good person for serving your country.
Is it just me or does it sound like Joel's last post was written by two different people? First half talks about how you are an extremely logical person but then you start talking about happy feelings, positive attitude and other nonsense that will allow the dice to work in your favour. Really? Does this sound logical to anyone? Positive attitude doesn't change the dice it just allows you to possibly have more fun. The dice don't have feelings and can't judge yours. They also don't know or care about what the previous rolls were and therefore momentum is basically hocus pocus. I'm glad you are having fun playing craps but that is all you are doing is having fun. You are currently running on the extreme side of good variance but variance will catch up to as it does to everyone else. I hope you understand this although I have my doubts.
I approached Craps the same way I approach everything I do. I started with reading and consuming information regarding the subject. I then played my first game and won quite a bit of money. I wanted to embrace the game and learn more. I enjoyed the atmosphere. As a fondness for statistical information I also reviewed and re-tested all of the probability outcomes for each wager. As a fondness for programming, I built a craps application that tested and recorded information so I could do a couple of things: test short-term variance, test true random rolls instead of pseudo-random rolls.
I then kept going back to the craps tables and winning. And, a lot of it had nothing to do with any of the short-term variance tests I had performed. I win a great deal of the time because I "attempt" to read the players and dealers at the table and I get a feel for what is working or not working well. I adjust my routines. I attempt to get everyone at the table in a good mood. I toke the dealers or make wagers for them. That also has a great secondary effect of helping my comps. I tell jokes. I try to get people in a good mood. The more energy at the table the better, imho.
As long as I keep winning in this unorthodox way, I'm happy. It seems to work well. Am I to be faulted for winning or for being happy? Right now I'm over $12k in winnings. I still set limits on play time and on winnings or losses. I will never risk more than my session bank roll on an outing. I usually leave when I've made more than $500, although I have left after winning $250 and $350 before. I seem to average $600 in winnings per session with big wins of $1,200/$1,650/$1,800/$2,100/$2,600. My largest loss was two weeks ago. I had won $600/$600/$600 on three consecutive days and then brought a bank roll of $1,100. I lost the entire $1,100. I was still up for the week. Then last week I won $1,000, $875, $650 and $2,600 which gave me my largest win and my largest week. Of course I'm a little happy.
Quote: RomesThe fact that I gave you the time and detail in both reading your long post and responding with one of my own should show you that I don't think you're simple... Just misguided with your current track of thoughts/assumptions.
p.s. There probably exists a dozen cures to all cancers in the world today. Companies like Susan G Komen have to release their tax information each year, and when I saw they're profiting nearly a quarter of a BILLION dollars per year I started to believe the quotes I'd heard before... There is no money in a cure. There's only money in treating the disease.
p.s.s. People beat cancer all the time with the technological advances we've made using our math and science. As you so eloquently put, it's only a matter of time before it's 100%. I just believe it's not our math and science is the reason it's not 100% yet.
I appreciate you taking the time to read anything that I post Romes. I would truly love to believe that modern medicine isn't being held back for any reason but part of me also has a few doubts on the subject as well. I'm a diabetic, type 1.5 (hey, a floating point!). Most people may not even realize there are type 1.5 diabetics out there. I'm one of them.
I hope everyone here has a great day.
Quote: JoelDezeI approached Craps the same way I approach everything I do. I started with reading and consuming information regarding the subject. I then played my first game and won quite a bit of money. I wanted to embrace the game and learn more. I enjoyed the atmosphere. As a fondness for statistical information I also reviewed and re-tested all of the probability outcomes for each wager. As a fondness for programming, I built a craps application that tested and recorded information so I could do a couple of things: test short-term variance, test true random rolls instead of pseudo-random rolls.
I then kept going back to the craps tables and winning. And, a lot of it had nothing to do with any of the short-term variance tests I had performed. I win a great deal of the time because I "attempt" to read the players and dealers at the table and I get a feel for what is working or not working well. I adjust my routines. I attempt to get everyone at the table in a good mood. I toke the dealers or make wagers for them. That also has a great secondary effect of helping my comps. I tell jokes. I try to get people in a good mood. The more energy at the table the better, imho.
As long as I keep winning in this unorthodox way, I'm happy. It seems to work well. Am I to be faulted for winning or for being happy? Right now I'm over $12k in winnings. I still set limits on play time and on winnings or losses. I will never risk more than my session bank roll on an outing. I usually leave when I've made more than $500, although I have left after winning $250 and $350 before. I seem to average $600 in winnings per session with big wins of $1,200/$1,650/$1,800/$2,100/$2,600. My largest loss was two weeks ago. I had won $600/$600/$600 on three consecutive days and then brought a bank roll of $1,100. I lost the entire $1,100. I was still up for the week. Then last week I won $1,000, $875, $650 and $2,600 which gave me my largest win and my largest week. Of course I'm a little happy.
You are not faulted for winning or for being happy. That however doesn't change the fact that there is no logic in your posts despite you claiming to be an extremely logical person. You have gambled and got lucky, that is not skill it is good variance. Saying that you read players and dealers as if they will give away a tell like a poker player doesn't make you great at reading people. It makes you delusional in my opinion. I can go play BJ with a positive attitude and win 30 days in a row, that doesn't mean I have found a way to beat BJ, it just means that I have gotten lucky 30 days in a row.
I hear a positive attitude and prayer cures all types of diabetes, so you should avoid medical advice spend more time willing that away.Quote: JoelDezeI appreciate you taking the time to read anything that I post Romes. I would truly love to believe that modern medicine isn't being held back for any reason but part of me also has a few doubts on the subject as well. I'm a diabetic, type 1.5 (hey, a floating point!). Most people may not even realize there are type 1.5 diabetics out there. I'm one of them.
I hope everyone here has a great day.
I don't know crap about craps.
Can you turn your energy towards Blackjack?
I will come play by your side when you get it perfected.
That is not jest, THAT is a promise.
Why no one here take Mr Joel up on his invite to come play at a craps table with him?
Many were ready to go play alongside Dicesetter.
Did I miss something, or did I just come early once again?
Where is he located? If he comes to Vegas I'm in.Quote: TwoFeathersATLJoel,
I don't know crap about craps.
Can you turn your energy towards Blackjack?
I will come play by your side when you get it perfected.
That is not jest, THAT is a promise.
Why no one here take Mr Joel up on his invite to come play at a craps table with him?
Many were ready to go play alongside Dicesetter.
Did I miss something, or did I just come early once again?
Next time I am in vegas they may show up, who knows.
dicesetter
Quote: AxelWolfI have my own craps prediction. His incredible craps winning streak will have ended just as whomever attends a craps session with him.
If it makes you feel any better I lost $1,900 the last time I played. I'm now up only +$10.3k. My biggest win is still $2,600 and my biggest loss is now $1,900. Negative expectations at work no doubt. I saved a dollar chip from that outing. And, not on purpose either.
Quote: JoelDezeIf it makes you feel any better I lost $1,900 the last time I played. I'm now up only +$10.3k.
+ Kudos on both points. Honesty and Good Fortune.
Now, don't spoil it by thinking or stating that this was just some aberration.
I've checked out some of your online presence. Like we see in your posts here, you are very eloquent and seem a decent and sane enough guy. You are also something of a contradiction: On the one hand you show some education and mathematical prowess, but on the other, you seem to show some remarkable, sorry to say it, failure to grasp the most fundamental facts about probability and randomness. Your talk of momentum, for instance and your fondness for embracing the gambler's fallacy.
I reckon that you are here primarily to raise the profile of your tipping venture.
Anyhow, good luck both with the craps and with your business. Don't let early good luck in craps be a curse to you.
The way early good luck in poker was a curse to me. My first hand of 7 stud was rolled up Jacks with the case on 5th street. It's been downhill ever since.Quote: OnceDearDon't let early good luck in craps be a curse to you.
Quote: MathExtremistThe way early good luck in poker was a curse to me. My first hand of 7 stud was rolled up Jacks with the case on 5th street. It's been downhill ever since.
Indeed. Good luck on day one was my curse.
That day I took £6K from a £100 buy in.
Trickled back about £4.5K before another run of luck and some 'exploits.'
Subsequently ran up over £18K profit. I chart my lifetime bankroll in my blog.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1281
But I shudder to upload the latest update, where I've taken a serious kicking by getting cocky.
Still ahead, still enjoying it. But lucky that it's all within 'entertainment' budget levels.
$:o)
Had a rather short night on the table.......
Got to casino about 9:30 and they had half open as usual and 5 people playing. I waited about an hour or so
and 4 left so my spot on SL1 was open. Dealer said it had been bad.....
what else is new.
I had only 1 roll, it was a 40 roll with 5 pass line winners. I made some money, but this is the third
time in the past month some one else at the table made several thousand on my roll and I made
much less.
I never worried much as long as I am ahead, but this is starting to be less than fun. If they would
come back with a decent roll it would not be so bad.
Dealer even questioned me when I colored up, saying no one here should ever be betting more
on your rolls than you.... you have it figured out and others are making the money.
This needs to end soon.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterDealer even questioned me when I colored up, saying no one here should ever be betting more
on your rolls than you.... you have it figured out and others are making the money. This needs to end soon.
Oh, it will, it will.
I don't really get it. What do you mean 'poor betting'?Quote: dicesitterpoor betting....again
Had a rather short night on the table.......Dealer said it had been bad.....
I had only 1 roll, it was a 40 roll with 5 pass line winners. I made some money, but this is the third
time in the past month some one else at the table made several thousand on my roll and I made
much less.
this is starting to be less than fun. If they would come back with a decent roll it would not be so bad.
...you have it figured out and others are making the money.
dicesetter
The table was 'cold when you got there. Clearly neither you or I believe in hot or cold tables. But you believe you have some influence to make your rolls hot.
Why would you care who else makes money off your rolls? Are they taking something away that is rightfully yours? Are they ruining something?
And then why worry how they roll? Is it that you think that after you warmed up the table, they spoiled it and made it cold again with their rubbish rolls?
If you can influence your rolls and presumably cannot influence theirs, and the house edge applies to theirs, why would you wager on them? Why would you not wager more on yourself so as to get the maximum benefit from your skill?
Quote: dicesitterpoor betting....again
Had a rather short night on the table.......
Got to casino about 9:30 and they had half open as usual and 5 people playing. I waited about an hour or so
and 4 left so my spot on SL1 was open. Dealer said it had been bad.....
what else is new.
I had only 1 roll, it was a 40 roll with 5 pass line winners. I made some money, but this is the third
time in the past month some one else at the table made several thousand on my roll and I made
much less.
I never worried much as long as I am ahead, but this is starting to be less than fun. If they would
come back with a decent roll it would not be so bad.
Dealer even questioned me when I colored up, saying no one here should ever be betting more
on your rolls than you.... you have it figured out and others are making the money.
This needs to end soon.
dicesetter
Maybe you're not the one who has it figured out.
Obviously I am not.
I am winning, and I have always said that was my goal, just to play and not worry
about that play hurting my retirement income.... I am doing that, and I should
be happy.... I keep telling myself that...
The last two outings I had 24, 24,21,30,40 rolls....... Now how much would Axel or
Math say you should make from this types of rolls ???
Last night I started with single unit pass line bet and double odds (all they allow)
Number was 5, I made that. Then came back with $5 pass line bet and 2.5 times on
the eight. PLaced 5 for two units. I hit the 5 again, took the win, and then hit the
8 for the pass win. Next pass number was 6 so I took the allowed 2.5 odds and
placed the 8 for 2 units. I hit a 9 and 10 and 4 and then a 6 for the pass win.
Then I had the point of 9 to make. Again it was $5 pass and $10 odds. I did not
place the 6 or 10. I hit the 5 and pressed it to $25. Then hit the 4 gain and placed it
for single unit, hit the 10 two more times ( never bet the 10) hit the hard 6 two more
times never bet the 6, hit the 4 and add $1 and took it to $15. Hit the 4 again
and collected and took it to $25, hit it again and again . Then the 10 two more
times still not betting it and the 6 again...Then hit the 9 for the point. Came back
with 9 again and then had a $10 pass line bet and $20 in odds, Hit the nine
again right away. Came back with 6 for the point. Hit a 4 and 2 more 10 tens.
The guy next to me came just as I started the roll, only bought in for $600 and
had a $100 pass line bet with $200 odds, I $50 come bet with $100 odds.
I bought in for more and it sat there, why not bet the 6 which I hit many times or
the ten which I hit 5-6 times and I hit 2 hard 4's, 2 hard 10's 4 hard 6's and 2 hard
8's. I had to bet so conservatively all those years I was losing, it just became
a habit. It has been a very long time since I had to take money out of my
checking account to play....so I accomplish my goal, but seeing what I
consider poor craps players walk off the table with thousands I have won
them , and look at the hundreds I have won makes me feel like I am one
that does not understand the game.
dicesetter
" You are starting to believe" NeoQuote: dicesitter
I bought in for more and it sat there, why not bet the 6 which I hit many times or
the ten which I hit 5-6 times and I hit 2 hard 4's, 2 hard 10's 4 hard 6's and 2 hard
8's. I had to bet so conservatively all those years I was losing, it just became
a habit. It has been a very long time since I had to take money out of my
checking account to play....so I accomplish my goal, but seeing what I
consider poor craps players walk off the table with thousands I have won
them , and look at the hundreds I have won makes me feel like I am one
that does not understand the game.
dicesetter
if they would take that thing out of the back of my neck it would feel better.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterRS
it just became a habit. It has been a very long time since I had to take money out of my
checking account to play....so I accomplish my goal, but seeing what I
consider poor craps players walk off the table with thousands I have won
them , and look at the hundreds I have won makes me feel like I am one
that does not understand the game.
dicesetter
I play at Twin River so the lower end table allows 10x odds. I love and hate that table to be honest. If you are rolling well and getting lucky you can make a huge amount of winnings on that table. If you aren't, vice versa.
I find that most of the people I'm playing with don't really trust anyone else and conserve their money until they are rolling. There are a rare few that play a certain way all of the time.
One of the guys I watched would put $120 inside on 5-9, wait for 2 hits on any number and then bring himself down to $44 inside until the 7-out. If there was a long streak he would alternate same bet, bump a unit, or pressure all the way. At the end of the night he was up a little but not much.
Another guy would only put money on the 6 and 8 and larger amounts. He would do $120 on 6 and $120 on 8. He would bump to $150, $180 and if he got past that, he would bring both the 6 and 8 down. I watched him go from $400 to $3000+ and walk away. He never touched the pass line.
I think the strangest player I've seen "ever" walked up to the table and checked cashed $4,000. He was watching the table for a long time too. Then he put $100 on the DP, laid odds for $1k (the 4 came up as the set point). And, the 4 gets hit. He loses that amount. Then he does the same bet again. Loses the same amount. Then he puts half his remaining bank on the 8 and the other half on the hard-8. Someone rolls a 7. He lost all of his money in under 15 minutes. I have never seen such a strange way to play. He spent more time watching the table doing nothing and losing nothing, and lost everything in 15 minutes.
What I'm trying to get at is if you are winning "anything" and you survive the table having some fun, why worry about what Sally the Mad Hair Dresser is earning to your left. Some people take more risk and get lucky. Some people take less risk and don't.
Take care.
Quote: JoelI think the strangest player I've seen "ever" walked up to the table and checked cashed $4,000. He was watching the table for a long time too. Then he put $100 on the DP, laid odds for $1k (the 4 came up as the set point). And, the 4 gets hit. He loses that amount. Then he does the same bet again. Loses the same amount. Then he puts half his remaining bank on the 8 and the other half on the hard-8. Someone rolls a 7. He lost all of his money in under 15 minutes. I have never seen such a strange way to play. He spent more time watching the table doing nothing and losing nothing, and lost everything in 15 minutes.
it's the Nostradamus strategy gone bad
Quote: odiousgambitit's the Nostradamus strategy gone bad
That or the Scoblete 5 count.
" I've built a ruby application using atmospheric noise generation" I would think a RNG would work just fine for what you were doing, no?
Hope you keep winning I cant remember a good hot roll I had on craps in a long time.
You see? Joel is not worthless. kmumf just posted for the 8th or so time in the last couple years. Go Joel! We are getting excited!Quote: kmumfThis thread reminds of a way old thread where that guy went to Vegas with investor money to prove his crap system and he reported it out here. Ohh that was a fun ride.
" I've built a ruby application using atmospheric noise generation" I would think a RNG would work just fine for what you were doing, no?
Hope you keep winning I cant remember a good hot roll I had on craps in a long time.
In most cases I would not have cared, but this happened a lot in the past month.
There are times you get on a roll, I would say there are times my shot is really
working, Math would say there are times you are just getting lucky......Really..................
The effect is the same... if things are going your way you need to take
advantage of that.
Saturday I did. I thought I had been playing well, but not betting, so Saturday night
I bet more at the casino . Sure as hell roll 1 was only 5 rolls, roll two was nine
and I was out some money. Roll three started and ended over an hour later and
I made more than I had ever made in one roll before where there was no bonus
bet involved.
Now I don't think for a second that was an accident because I made an adjustment
on roll 2 & 3. Other guys would say you were just damn lucky...... maybe both
are correct... but I put my money where my mouth was and I walked off the
table with the money from my roll.
I wont kid you.... it felt damn good.
dicesetter
I've been placing the 6 and 8 only until any shooter hits a set point. Once done, I do a pass line bet and 5x odds on 4/10 and 10x odds on everything else.
On the 6/8 place bets I start with $24 risk, alternate same, press, place until I cover the inside numbers. Once I cover all the numbers I turn them off until the set point is hit or a 7-out comes. I pick up where I started on the next roller.
This gives me a limited risk at under 1.53 HE for the 6 and 8 and pass line. I put very little money on the 5/9 so I'm not too worried about the higher HE.
The only props I play now are the world on a come out roll and a very seldom low wager horn bet.
