Dark side getting through come-out roll

Hi All,

First post on this site. I've looked through the first 10 pages of the Craps forum to look for the answer before asking it (sorry if I still missed it!), but here it is: Am I correct that you're increasing the house edge by trying to hedge against the 7/11 on the come-out roll. I know the doey/don't doesn't work and laying the 4/10 costs you 5%. At the end of the day, if you're still betting the DP, is simply better to just bet it and take your lumps? I see that some of you are avoiding this altogether and just laying the point once it's made. Does the vig of laying the point after the come-out roll make up for your disadvantage before the come-out roll?

Thanks,

mister bee

Yep, just take your lumps.

The HE doesn't increase, but the Expected Value [EV] does because in hedging in any game you are just combining bets that each have an undefeatable negative EV [assuming you are using bets with negative expectation]

You smooth it all out for the ups and downs, sure. But if you don't like the variance there are better ways to tame it.

You are correct in that two negative HE bets do not create a love child bet that is now a good one. Two bets only here, so hedging is just two bets. The 7/11 bet is terrible odds so stick with the line bet.
The vig of 5% is what it is, huge, so no, you don't get a better bet by waiting and laying against the point (the richocet).

How doesn't the doey don't work in your experience?

Quote: odiousgambit

You smooth it all out for the ups and downs, sure. But if you don't like the variance there are better ways to tame it.

Thanks for the reply. Assuming you're still referring to the DP, what, may I ask, are some of the better ways to tame it?

Quote: rushdl

How doesn't the doey don't work in your experience?

After trying it out on a few Vegas trips, it seemed liked getting burned by the 12 made the whole application kinda pointless. I'm sure sample size was an issue, maybe I was screwing something up, but I put the kibosh on it. Also, the hour I spent this morning looking over old forum posts seems to indicate that a lot of folks on here don't think much of it.

A lot of 12's is weird. But, it happens. Had 4 one night in 2 sessions (COME-OUT's!). Then after that none for a long time. If you are placing large don't bets then I get it. The 12 burns deep. This is my experience too (Seen not done). A serious DP no odds donter usually wont/cant lose over two times, three at the most. Then they look for another shooter or table.

Its hard to screw up a pass/don't pass bet. But after the come-out, that is when the real math happens. I don't want to have you play any certain way just trying to help with your questions along your own lines of thinking. If you want to ask a question regarding what you did in Vegas after the come-out just let us know. Make your own decisions, study the odds and options on this site and the wizardofodds.com site. Most of all have fun!

Quote: misterbee

Thanks for the reply. Assuming you're still referring to the DP, what, may I ask, are some of the better ways to tame it?

The Variance on the Pass or the DP either one is actually very low. Usually what makes the variance high are the free odds bets [or perhaps middle table bets, I hope not in your case]. If a player max-bets the free odds, and the variance is too wild, then he can take it down to 2x or so instead of 3x4x5x or whatever the max is.

Of course I don't know how you might bet.

Welcome to the site. For future reference, there is a search link you can click on in the upper right portion. Then, just type keywords in the white box that appears and it can narrow things down for you.

As far as the doey/don't, I understand the concept to be: bet both, if point is rolled lay odds. That's pretty much it, right? Perhaps I was adding to many DCs?

Thanks Wulfgar. I tried the search link. Quite the rabbit hole! Have to refrain from exploring during work hours.

Quote: misterbee

As far as the doey/don't, I understand the concept to be: bet both, if point is rolled lay odds. That's pretty much it, right? Perhaps I was adding to many DCs?

Except one minor thing yes that's it. Doey/Don't is a passing system, not a don't pass system. So once out, the DD goes positive.

But yeah You got it right and good luck!

To many DC'S?

Yes that's absolutely possible to overload that thing.