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Jason14x
Jason14x
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February 28th, 2016 at 11:15:31 PM permalink
Hi,

My name is Jason I am new to this website; I was recommended to join this website by a few "AP's" that play "e-craps" made by Aruze.

In my local casino, there is an "e-craps" (aka bubble craps) machine with 2X odds. I play the game because it is fun and I like getting comps and mailers. At this particular casino, you are not allow to bet both the pass / don't pass line (or Come / Don't Come) on the same machine. As a result, I have to play two adjacent machines when the place is not busy. I am not a craps player and this is the first time I have played craps. The Free Slot Play is so poor along with comps that the game remains negative. e.g. the casino maintains an edge after netting all the benefits.

To me, craps is a game of perfect and imperfect hedges. A perfect hedge would be betting $6 on the pass line on the first machine and $6 on the don't pass on the second machine (btw, I would lose $6 for a boxcar on the come out roll) and the shooter making a point. Then I am perfectly hedged as one bet will offset the other as I collect $10 for any win. Suppose the point is 4, then I would bet an additional $5 as odds on the pass line and additional $10 as odds on the don't pass line. Again, I am perfectly hedged as I will collect $27 in winnings in either scenario of either the shooter making the point or 7-out.

An example of an imperfect hedge would be bet $8 on pass line and $6 on don't pass. Another example would be bet $6 each on pass / don't pass and when the point is 4, bet $5 odds on pass and $12 odds on don't pass. Or, assuming I play one machine, I would bet $6 on pass line and suppose the point is "6", then I bet $6 on place to lose on the 6. Basically, in the case of imperfect hedges, I take a position as to whether or not I believe the shooter will make the point or 7-out.

As you can see, a lot of my hedges / positions are simple and linear and does not require quadratic programming to solve to hedge ratio. Some of the AP's suggest that I also make Come / Don't Come bets but with only 20 seconds to make bets between rounds, it gets confusing and I rather not make bets if leads to mistakes or not knowing my position. To me the game is all about knowing when to take a position of shooter making a point or 7-out. When I don't want to take a position, I sit there with perfect hedges (while being grinded out with boxcars on the come out roll).

I've looked into hopper bets (bet on 3 combinations that make a 7), make a place to lose bet, "laying" bets, etc if I think 7-out is highly probable. I also looked into other combination of bets, etc, but it is clear to me that I am re-inventing the wheel and that I may make mistakes in my math.

My request is: Can anyone recommend books, websites, etc that teaches me the various bet combinations and hedge ratios. For example, if I wanted wanted to trade options, there are lots of books that will explain how to set up a position, what the Greeks are (delta, gamma, etc).

Or recommend the best way to hedge against a 7-out in the most cost-effective way.

Thanks in advance.
odiousgambit
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February 29th, 2016 at 2:59:37 AM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

Hi,

My name is Jason I am new to this website; I was recommended to join this website by a few "AP's" that play "e-craps" made by Aruze.

Wow, is the designation 'AP' getting spread a little thin these days or what? You do know there is no beating e-craps assuming no one finds a glitch

Quote:


In my local casino, there is an "e-craps" (aka bubble craps) machine with 2X odds. I play the game because it is fun and I like getting comps and mailers. At this particular casino, you are not allow to bet both the pass / don't pass line (or Come / Don't Come) on the same machine.

Your AP Disadvantaged Player pals have misled you again. Simultaneous Come/Don't Come buys you nothing.

I am going to stop right here and say some things:

*welcome to WoV
*I see you started another thread talking about P-value. That doesn't seem to fit with this thread, so, having started here, I'm not reading that one. Your posts so far are going to make everyone suspicious you're out to get our collective goat. Rightly so, that suspicion itself; perhaps you are not putting us on?
*what you have written so far is perfect for setting off a rash of unkind abuse directed at you
*nobody worth listening to is going to want to read more until you demonstrate you can be educated
*so this advice I'm giving means I am giving you the benefit of the doubt for now
*go immediately to the Wizard of Odds site, link below, and come back when you have internalized certain facts like "hedging is no good" . You should really just read all the "ask the wizard" sections top to bottom

Quote:

To me, craps is a game of perfect and imperfect hedges.


*groan* I promised myself I wouldn't read more but my eye caught this
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RS
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February 29th, 2016 at 3:48:41 AM permalink
There's no way to beat real craps (with some betting system/pattern) nor is it possible to beat those stupid e-craps machines. If your free-play offers exceeded your expected loss, then yeah, you'd have a winning thing going on. But any craps machine I've looked at (I haven't looked at them all), usually have something like $200 coin in = 1 point, or some ridiculous large amount like that. In other words, the free-play isn't going to exceed your expected loss.


There are no bet-combinations or hedges that can beat the game. So I ask: What is your goal in gambling / playing e-craps? Do you want to have fun for a long time while having no chance of winning, almost guaranteeing yourself a loss, with a chance at breaking even? If so -- then keep doing what you're doing. If your goal is to win -- I don't think anyone here can help you. If you have a different goal, let's hear it.
darkoz
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February 29th, 2016 at 6:22:30 AM permalink
Quote: RS

There's no way to beat real craps (with some betting system/pattern) nor is it possible to beat those stupid e-craps machines. If your free-play offers exceeded your expected loss, then yeah, you'd have a winning thing going on. But any craps machine I've looked at (I haven't looked at them all), usually have something like $200 coin in = 1 point, or some ridiculous large amount like that. In other words, the free-play isn't going to exceed your expected loss.


There are no bet-combinations or hedges that can beat the game. So I ask: What is your goal in gambling / playing e-craps? Do you want to have fun for a long time while having no chance of winning, almost guaranteeing yourself a loss, with a chance at breaking even? If so -- then keep doing what you're doing. If your goal is to win -- I don't think anyone here can help you. If you have a different goal, let's hear it.



I have found machines where the e-craps can be offset bet for comps quite lucratively if you know what you are doing. This person clearly does not.

Sounds to me like his AP buddies saw he was studying their technique and gave him some mis-leading advice to purposely screw with him. I've done that before too, lol.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
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February 29th, 2016 at 7:23:09 AM permalink
Quote: RS

There's no way to beat real craps (with some betting system/pattern) nor is it possible to beat those stupid e-craps machines. If your free-play offers exceeded your expected loss, then yeah, you'd have a winning thing going on. But any craps machine I've looked at (I haven't looked at them all), usually have something like $200 coin in = 1 point, or some ridiculous large amount like that. In other words, the free-play isn't going to exceed your expected loss.


There are no bet-combinations or hedges that can beat the game. So I ask: What is your goal in gambling / playing e-craps? Do you want to have fun for a long time while having no chance of winning, almost guaranteeing yourself a loss, with a chance at breaking even? If so -- then keep doing what you're doing. If your goal is to win -- I don't think anyone here can help you. If you have a different goal, let's hear it.

I'm not so certain the bubble craps dice are not somehow bias. They take a beating. It would be a very long and arduous task finding out and I doubt anything would come of it. I assume the machines have some kind of self auditing mechanism just in case something is off.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SanchoPanza
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February 29th, 2016 at 7:44:30 AM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

At this particular casino, you are not allow to bet both the pass / don't pass line (or Come / Don't Come) on the same machine.

Try betting with lay or buy bets. On the table, they have the advantage that they can be taken down.
Boz
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February 29th, 2016 at 7:49:50 AM permalink
Bet small, get free drinks (TIP!!) and you will have a good time and its cheaper than a bar.
TwoFeathersATL
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February 29th, 2016 at 8:06:21 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Bet small, get free drinks (TIP!!) and you will have a good time and its cheaper than a bar.

The above advice is not good in Ohio and North Carolina. Yes, you should tip generously on FREE drinks. I tip generously on the overpriced drinks I have to pay for! I'm such a loser ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
rushdl
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February 29th, 2016 at 9:56:52 AM permalink
If eCraps won't let you bet Pass/DontPass simultaneously what does that tell you?
mustangsally
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February 29th, 2016 at 10:25:05 AM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

Hi,
My name is Jason I am new to this website; I was recommended to join this website by a few "AP's" that play "e-craps" made by Aruze.

this one

Quote: Jason14x

At this particular casino, you are not allow to bet both the pass / don't pass line (or Come / Don't Come) on the same machine.

I have seen some allow for both bets to be made
Quote: Jason14x

The Free Slot Play is so poor along with comps that the game remains negative. e.g. the casino maintains an edge after netting all the benefits.

the points and comps used to be OK but too many took advantage of that and ruined it for all the rest
hope they had fun too
Quote: Jason14x

A perfect hedge would be betting $6 on the pass line on the first machine and $6 on the don't pass on the second machine (btw, I would lose $6 for a boxcar on the come out roll)

some casinos the 2 craps causes the pass line to lose and the don't pass tp push

and perfect hedge?
so after 36,000,000 lifetime pass/dpass, come/dcome bets one should expect to lose
1 million of them or about $6,000,000 in real money.

that is a deep hole to get out of and I doubt any comps or points will make up for that unless you know what bet will win on the next roll by reading the dice and how they bounce or no-bounce (the roll-over roll)

I suggest
you to negotiate with the casino to see if the will change things for you
they could say yes but most likely will say no

have fun playing
"push the button"
craps bubble machine
Sally
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odiousgambit
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February 29th, 2016 at 10:55:34 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

If eCraps won't let you bet Pass/DontPass simultaneously what does that tell you?



not much since just about any real table game will allow this - and evidently some e-craps.

I do not believe for a second there are any real APs working e-craps unless there is a glitch of some kind, like having the machines set to give 1 point for 1 dollar [or some something ] by accident.

No doey-don'ter is fooling anybody. Whatever points are given, if it isn't attractive to a normal right-side player or don't player, it's got nothing for a doey-don't player either.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rushdl
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February 29th, 2016 at 12:01:17 PM permalink
Quote:

"not much since just about any real table game will allow this - and evidently some e-craps. "


Yeah but they "are" paying attention to it. And the MO is money. Same as mine.


Quote:

"if it isn't attractive to a normal right-side player or don't player, it's got nothing for a doey-don't player either."



It will never be equally attractive because A full time Righty does not need to hedge his come out, for a simple 12/2/3-7/11, 8ways to 4ways odds. BUT the cool thing is a righty can move the don't line bet back to the pass line odds after the point is set. (There is another tell, though, its not a contract, they want you to move it)

Doey-Dont is dumb because it doesn't "need" to hedge either, it always goes with pass line odds once established.

The pass/dontpass bet the best way in my opinion for a Darksider to enter the game. Right sider? Just a worthless hedge.
SanchoPanza
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February 29th, 2016 at 2:27:40 PM permalink
[deleted post]
Jason14x
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February 29th, 2016 at 5:26:53 PM permalink
I want to take this time to explain what hedging is:

A) to minimize a loss on a wager (since e-craps has a built in house advantage)

B) to minimize the variance (this is self explanatory)

C) a combination of the above

Hedging does not mean to make money. There are a lot of confused readers on this thread.

I prefer hedging with the odds bet because the house has no edge in those bets. But, I am willing to learn about other hedges.

Cheers.
RS
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February 29th, 2016 at 5:41:04 PM permalink
Hop the hard ways for $16 each and the easy ways for $31 each. Tada!
odiousgambit
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February 29th, 2016 at 6:24:59 PM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

I want to take this time to explain what hedging is:


You have taken the first step in establishing that you are here to learn nothing - nay, but to teach.

Since the Pupil has exceeded the Master already, knowing everything, there is no need to go check out what the Wizard has to say about hedging. In case you were wondering, you are not echoing what he has to say about it. Then again, refer to the above, clearly it's time for Michael to take a back seat.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darkoz
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February 29th, 2016 at 6:30:26 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

not much since just about any real table game will allow this - and evidently some e-craps.

I do not believe for a second there are any real APs working e-craps unless there is a glitch of some kind, like having the machines set to give 1 point for 1 dollar [or some something ] by accident.



I can emphatically tell you that I worked e-craps for so much money the casinos I was hitting stopped allowing anyone to make points or comps on them even to legit players.
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ontariodealer
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February 29th, 2016 at 6:35:35 PM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

I want to take this time to explain what hedging is:

A) to minimize a loss on a wager (since e-craps has a built in house advantage)

B) to minimize the variance (this is self explanatory)

C) a combination of the above

Hedging does not mean to make money. There are a lot of confused readers on this thread.

I prefer hedging with the odds bet because the house has no edge in those bets. But, I am willing to learn about other hedges.

Cheers.



hedging in a negative expectation game means making a bad bet and then making it worse with another bad bet.
get second you pig
TwoFeathersATL
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February 29th, 2016 at 7:14:06 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: odiousgambit

not much since just about any real table game will allow this - and evidently some e-craps.

I do not believe for a second there are any real APs working e-craps unless there is a glitch of some kind, like having the machines set to give 1 point for 1 dollar [or some something ] by accident.



I can emphatically tell you that I worked e-craps for so much money the casinos I was hitting stopped allowing anyone to make points or comps on them even to legit players.

So you see, we have differing opinions posted on here about hedging, or maybe about kicking ass on some e-craps thing. Really? E-Craps? Someone please just shoot me now, I'm done.......;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Wizardofnothing
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February 29th, 2016 at 7:15:08 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

hedging in a negative expectation game means making a bad bet and then making it worse with another bad bet.




Finally!!!!!!


Like saying in baccarat bet 1000 on banker and 500 on player to hedge- Only increases your -ev
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darkoz
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February 29th, 2016 at 10:41:09 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Quote: darkoz

Quote: odiousgambit

not much since just about any real table game will allow this - and evidently some e-craps.

I do not believe for a second there are any real APs working e-craps unless there is a glitch of some kind, like having the machines set to give 1 point for 1 dollar [or some something ] by accident.



I can emphatically tell you that I worked e-craps for so much money the casinos I was hitting stopped allowing anyone to make points or comps on them even to legit players.

So you see, we have differing opinions posted on here about hedging, or maybe about kicking ass on some e-craps thing. Really? E-Craps? Someone please just shoot me now, I'm done.......;-)



I won't explain how it was done but I made a lot of money off of it. It was not a glitch. I repeated this AP move many other places other than just one casino and even on games other than E-craps however E-craps was the most lucrative.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Jason14x
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February 29th, 2016 at 10:41:44 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

hedging in a negative expectation game means making a bad bet and then making it worse with another bad bet.



You just described a different game than the one I am playing.

I was told the odds bets have no house edge and therefore are NOT negative EV wagers, thus they are not bad bets. I was also told that stochastic calculus can help explain the wins and losses from these odds bets, e.g. it is a random walk.
Wizardofnothing
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February 29th, 2016 at 10:46:59 PM permalink
Not 100 percent buying what you are selling, without a glitch And without extras I do not know this game to be beatable on the game itself
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odiousgambit
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March 1st, 2016 at 2:48:05 AM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

I was told the odds bets have no house edge

correct, so how can you hedge with them?
Quote:

and therefore are NOT negative EV wagers, thus they are not bad bets.

they are not bad bets, just fun bets for those who like them
Quote:

I was also told that stochastic calculus can help explain the wins and losses from these odds bets, e.g. it is a random walk.


I don't see how you need to study any higher math to understand what a random walk is.

Did you pay any of these folks telling you these things any money for their systems?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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March 1st, 2016 at 3:01:34 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Really? E-Craps? Someone please just shoot me now, I'm done.......;-)


Line me up on that wall too, unless I have guessed below what he is talking about.

Quote: darkoz

I won't explain how it was done but I made a lot of money off of it. It was not a glitch.

You have to know there is a great collective groan rising when such a thing is said with the advisory attached that there will be no effort to prove it. You might as well say you are Superman, and why not if you don't have to give any evidence.

Quote:


I repeated this AP move many other places other than just one casino and even on games other than E-craps however E-craps was the most lucrative.

If it was just a matter of them awarding points on total coin-in with E-craps, including free odds, that was sometimes done and it never lasts. I'd agree to not call it a glitch if you like.

I've been over-comped in my day, but why not talk about it once it is a dead deal?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darkoz
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March 1st, 2016 at 5:13:21 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Line me up on that wall too, unless I have guessed below what he is talking about.

You have to know there is a great collective groan rising when such a thing is said with the advisory attached that there will be no effort to prove it. You might as well say you are Superman, and why not if you don't have to give any evidence.

If it was just a matter of them awarding points on total coin-in with E-craps, including free odds, that was sometimes done and it never lasts. I'd agree to not call it a glitch if you like.

I've been over-comped in my day, but why not talk about it once it is a dead deal?



Why not talk about it?

First, there are elements in that conversation that relate to methods of my AP that are not a dead deal at the current time. Explaining only those parts that are dead would not lead you to believe me without exposing those parts more valuable to me.

Secondly, this message board is quite schizo. Announce you have a viable AP method and explain it, you get slammed for releasing too much information. Announce you have a viable AP method and are keeping it a secret for your protection and you get called out as a liar because you can't "prove it to anyone."

As I KNOW how it works AND that it makes me money, it is not my prerogative to give up any aspects of how it worked even if I have moved on in a sense.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
RS
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March 1st, 2016 at 6:24:00 AM permalink
OG -- There's no benefit to talking about something that is currently going on, whether it be a glitch or something else. Even if it is a dead play, still no benefit, as sometimes things pop back up in the future. If it is a glitch (which I doubt), even after the glitch is patched, some machines may still have the glitch.....and even if all of those glitches are patched, who knows, a similar glitch may appear down the road in a new machine. But of course, if that glitch is brought to light and a lot of people are taking advantage of it, then it'd be more likely that the type of glitch is checked for in the future when a game is made.
Wizardofnothing
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March 1st, 2016 at 7:38:27 AM permalink
I'll put this out as an example!!!!!!
Empire city in New York City was awarded points and free play on e crap..... Whatever the play was it was.... However about 3 months ago they retroactively canceled all points AND MAIL That was already given out - with no explanation or advance notice ( not that any is ever given)
That being said the machine without a glitch is not beatable straight up
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AxelWolf
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March 1st, 2016 at 7:48:07 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit



I've been over-comped in my day, but why not talk about it once it is a dead deal?

Why talk about it at all?

"Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it"
Those=casinos, That's a good thing for gamblers.

Also spreading to much information (especially publicly) leads to more competition, and again it wises up casinos and darksiders.

Spreading to much free AP information eventually leads to the wrong person showing up who F's it up for everyone by doing something seriously retarded.

IE: A small location was trying to drum up business during it's slow hours. So two times a week for about four consecutive hours, once every hour the first person to get a 4 of a kind on .25 or better got a $200 bonus. Sometimes there would only be a couple of ploppys. Some machines were significantly better to play, so you had a huge advantage over everyone. Sometimes I would purposely NOT go for it especially if I hit 2 convective.

The promotion had been going for while along with other good(Actually even better ) stuff during the week.

The hands on owner would oftentimes sit have a drink and chat with me. He was yet another friendly, cool, interesting old school Vegas guy who loved to tell stories about his mobsters friends.

I always gave plenty more action than necessary, especially since you could play a 99.84 game if you included the slot club and email bonuses. I suggested He give me business cards to give out with a small discount on food(They had fantastic Italian food)

I always took friends and family to order food and drinks even if I didn't plan on playing that day. They liked to gamble occasionally. The place had good food and fair pay tables, so why not there.

I'm certain he knew I was there mainly for the promotions.


Eventually another pro showed up, but he only played on occasion due to traveling. He decided to tell his AP friend about the promotion. IIRC this guy was more of a low limit BJ and Poker AP.

This Idiot would come in and set up 30 minutes before the promotion get out a book and start reading it. As soon as they announce it was 4oak bonus time he started loudly slamming away. Once they announced the 4oak had been hit for that round he would cash out, go sit in a chair and start reading again until the next round started.

I did my best to get him to stop being so obviously blatant abusive and cheap(obviously I didn't say it that way to him), but he refused and seemed resentful.

After a few weeks of this BS the owner said he was ending the promotion as he mentioned what this guy was doing. Apparently it pissing off one of the regular ploppys as well.

This wasn't the first or last time I have dealt with an AP reading in between bonus rounds.
AAMOF soon after that a very similar situation, different location, different person, SAME OUTCOME. Hell, one of our more well known public VP players used to pull this crap. (no, not BD)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SanchoPanza
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March 1st, 2016 at 1:06:00 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

[on odds bets]correct, so how can you hedge with them? they are not bad bets, just fun bets for those who like them

They are more "fun" than line bets because they have no house edge. A better adjective might be "added" bets.
Jason14x
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March 1st, 2016 at 5:10:42 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

correct, so how can you hedge with them?
they are not bad bets, just fun bets for those who like them

I don't see how you need to study any higher math to understand what a random walk is.

Did you pay any of these folks telling you these things any money for their systems?



I am not responsible for your ignorance.

If I play two adjacent machines where I make place to win bets on 1 machine, and I have insufficient odds bet on my 2nd machine to protect me against a 7-out, NOTHING is stopping me from going to my neighbor and adding additional odds bets.

In Blackjack, we would call this backlining -- since I never played craps before e-craps, I would not know the correct terminology of riding on somene's odds bets when they person doesn't make odds bets in first place.

Again, I am not responsible for your ignorance of playing e-craps differently than from the table game.
Wizardofnothing
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March 1st, 2016 at 5:17:36 PM permalink
The lack of knowledge with some players nowadays is mind boggling - Some people will always think they see a pattern of heads when flipping quarters
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
darkoz
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March 1st, 2016 at 6:36:28 PM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

I am not responsible for your ignorance.

If I play two adjacent machines where I make place to win bets on 1 machine, and I have insufficient odds bet on my 2nd machine to protect me against a 7-out, NOTHING is stopping me from going to my neighbor and adding additional odds bets.

In Blackjack, we would call this backlining -- since I never played craps before e-craps, I would not know the correct terminology of riding on somene's odds bets when they person doesn't make odds bets in first place.

Again, I am not responsible for your ignorance of playing e-craps differently than from the table game.



At a live Craps game what you described is still not an AP move.

As for E-Craps, what is stopping you from making odds bets on someone else's seat is that player. I don't know where you live but where I live (NYC) start touching someone else's E-Craps screen and you're likely to get punched in the face.

Seriously, though, how would you add money to someone else's terminal? And then deal with the payout if you win? No one I know is going to want to deal with all that finagling while trying to continue playing a game with 30 seconds before each throw of the dice.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Wizardofnothing
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March 1st, 2016 at 6:58:10 PM permalink
Well that sums up the reason all the offers where cut off at empire city as of three months ago
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
Wizard
Administrator
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March 1st, 2016 at 7:07:53 PM permalink
Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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March 1st, 2016 at 7:47:36 PM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

I am not responsible for your ignorance.



Personal insult. Three-day suspension.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Dalex64
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March 1st, 2016 at 8:29:41 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.



For a second there, before I read your next message, and after seeing his name in red, I thought you may have suspended him for hedging his bets.
Wizardofnothing
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March 1st, 2016 at 8:34:37 PM permalink
That would have been epic
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
odiousgambit
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March 2nd, 2016 at 3:56:25 AM permalink
LOL.

Perhaps he will return with more, but he is making no effort to learn anything - already knows it all and doesn't like to be challenged on it.

At least that is his persona, perhaps a chosen one for this site. I find it very suspect that he is throwing around terms like 'stochastic calculus'. It's as if he thought it would be fun to get on this site and pretend to be somewhat informed about math* and then claim to follow gambling strategies that would make the members here groan.

If so, he's good. The most effective ones really have you wondering if they are 'for real' - a question I often pose to them.

* in his other thread he starts off talking way over the heads of the average guy, then never makes another post in the thread https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/25208-would-you-use-p-value-to-help-make-bets/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Tanko
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March 2nd, 2016 at 6:03:03 AM permalink
Quote: Jason14x

Can anyone recommend books, websites, etc that teaches me the various bet combinations and hedge ratios. For example, if I wanted wanted to trade options, there are lots of books that will explain how to set up a position, what the Greeks are (delta, gamma, etc).



Hedging in craps is not at all like hedging in the market, where the value of Puts and Calls changes with the value of the underlying stock.

Unlike Calls, which have unlimited profit potential, craps game payoffs always ensure that the house has the edge.

When you hedge to offset an opposing bet, it only compounds the house edge.

A bet on the PL has a HE of 1.41%.

Combined with a horn bet on the come out as insurance against the 2,3 or 12, the HE increases to 4.58%.

Laying the 4 or 10 on the come out as insurance, also increases the HE.

Wizard's Ten Commandments of Gambling
rushdl
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March 2nd, 2016 at 6:41:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.


What if I have two coupons for $25 each?
I currently believe that a hedged bet "is the best bet" to retrieve the $50 by going Pass/Don't Pass simultaneously. Or Come/Don't Come. I've been doing that for a while. If I only have one coupon, no matter how large, I place it on the Don't Pass with an equal amount on the Pass (or the other way around).

Please tell me about any better ways to redeem coupons (Free Bets), at the craps table.

Not just the Wizard I know he's busy,

Does Anyone have better techniques for this type of comp?


BACKGROUND:
I get $400 or $360 a month in free bets.
In three months (DEC/JAN/FEB) I lost two coupons to the 12. Both were $20's.
AxelWolf
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March 2nd, 2016 at 6:42:19 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Hedging in craps is not at all like hedging in the market, where the value of Puts and Calls changes with the value of the underlying stock.

Unlike Calls, which have unlimited profit potential, craps game payoffs always ensure that the house has the edge.

When you hedge to offset an opposing bet, it only compounds the house edge.

A bet on the PL has a HE of 1.41%.

Combined with a horn bet on the come out as insurance against the 2,3 or 12, the HE increases to 4.58%.

Laying the 4 or 10 on the come out as insurance, also increases the HE.

Wizard's Ten Commandments of Gambling

I somewhat disagree with the no hedging rule. As a general rule it's fine.

My scenario is dealing with an underfunded AP.

Let's take the 1/2 parlays for instance. If someone put his last few hundred dollars on a 6 team parlay and he has an opportunity to hedge for a guaranteed instant bankroll, I would highly suggest he hedges. Someone shouldn't be flipping coins in that situation.

You may argue that if he doesn't hedge and wins his parlay he will have double the bankroll to work with. Unless he has something good to invest that extra money on, that extra money isn't working for him.

There's not a big difference between 6k BR and a 12k BR on many low limit AP opportunities, especially if you're working with 5% ++ plays.


I would agree that the extra 6k would give him some breathing room during slow periods where nothing good has surfaced. If you're motivated enough that shouldn't happen. There's enough sniping plays to keep someone busy while looking for safe higher percentage plays.

There's also other situations I think hedging is beneficial Id rather lose a few dollars than risk thousands as long as you're making money on the play. Variance usually isn't an AP's friend. Then again we are lucky there's variance or everyone would be APing.

Therefore I conclude you guy's are misleading newbies like QFIT has been accused of doing. I'm going to have to start a war with The Wizard and company. Or not, if people want to blow out their BR and get a job I'm all for that.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Mar 2, 2016
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TwoFeathersATL
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March 2nd, 2016 at 7:10:33 AM permalink
You see,,that's why I read here, for the wisdom of others.
The walk away,' most rules have exceptions '..;-)

<edit> side note. There's a 'My Pillow' commercial on TV, the pretty blonde is asleep in a brassiere. Has anyone ever run into a pretty blonde, or ugly blonde, or any female, or male with nice breasts, that sleeps in a brassiere? Maybe you can't believe everything you see on TV.....
Last edited by: TwoFeathersATL on Mar 2, 2016
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
AxelWolf
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March 2nd, 2016 at 7:17:44 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

What if I have two coupons for $25 each?
I currently believe that a hedged bet "is the best bet" to retrieve the $50 by going Pass/Don't Pass simultaneously. Or Come/Don't Come. I've been doing that for a while. If I only have one coupon, no matter how large, I place it on the Don't Pass with an equal amount on the Pass (or the other way around).

Please tell me about any better ways to redeem coupons (Free Bets), at the craps table.

Not just the Wizard I know he's busy,

Does Anyone have better techniques for this type of comp?


BACKGROUND:
I get $400 or $360 a month in free bets.
In three months (DEC/JAN/FEB) I lost two coupons to the 12. Both were $20's.

That may be the safest way to liquidate your coupons but its not the best EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
odiousgambit
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March 2nd, 2016 at 7:25:23 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

There's also other situations I think hedging is beneficial



I can't speak for the Wizard but I don't think he would argue with you in 3 situations:

*when 'hedging' is actually arbitrage

*when the action is +EV [sometimes]

*he has said he is OK with it when life-altering amounts are involved, even in -EV
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxelWolf
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March 2nd, 2016 at 7:30:01 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I can't speak for the Wizard but I don't think he would argue with you in 3 situations:

*when 'hedging' is actually arbitrage

*when the action is +EV [sometimes]

*he has said he is OK with it when life-altering amounts are involved, even in -EV



6k or whatever isn't a life changing amount.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofnothing
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March 2nd, 2016 at 12:06:02 PM permalink
Life changing fir the person is all relative
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
Ibeatyouraces
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March 2nd, 2016 at 12:16:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Life changing fir the person is all relative


$6000 to Bill Gates is bread crumbs.

http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RS
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March 2nd, 2016 at 12:18:59 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: odiousgambit

I can't speak for the Wizard but I don't think he would argue with you in 3 situations:

*when 'hedging' is actually arbitrage

*when the action is +EV [sometimes]

*he has said he is OK with it when life-altering amounts are involved, even in -EV



6k or whatever isn't a life changing amount.



I'd say $6k is enough to start actually doing some AP....and if your only income is working McD's 9-5.....yeah, $6k is life changing.
SanchoPanza
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March 2nd, 2016 at 1:05:31 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

What if I have two coupons for $25 each?
I currently believe that a hedged bet "is the best bet" to retrieve the $50 by going Pass/Don't Pass simultaneously. Or Come/Don't Come. I've been doing that for a while. If I only have one coupon, no matter how large, I place it on the Don't Pass with an equal amount on the Pass (or the other way around).

Which casinos allow hedging while doing match play? In my experience, even liberal locals' houses do not allow using coupons on match plays. But betting the don't come and having a point made while you're still up in back of the line presents a pretty good opportunity that they don't seem to mind. Especially in view of the fact that match bets are usually limited to pass and don't pass, supposedly to keep down paper flying all over the layout.
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