triple parley v All tall & Small
February 9th, 2016 at 2:22:09 PM
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which has better chance of hitting? a triple parley on a hard 10 or hitting the All on the tall small? how does the 6 or 8 compare?
February 9th, 2016 at 4:25:49 PM
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Quote: christofar7which has better chance of hitting? a triple parley on a hard 10 or hitting the All on the tall small? how does the 6 or 8 compare?
The ALL bet is easier to hit. According to WOO, the probability is 0.005258 or approx 1 in 190. A hard 10 parlayed twice and hitting three times is 1/(1/9)^3 or 1 in 729
February 9th, 2016 at 4:33:34 PM
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Thanks!!! I saw probability for the ALL and also for the 6 or 8, but they were in different forms and I have trouble doing the conversion.....I could find nothing for the 4 or 10....
February 9th, 2016 at 11:31:00 PM
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Not only that, but you're also giving up much more on your hard-10 parlay (29.766% if my math is right). You get paid on hard-10 more infrequently (less often), AND if you're constantly making the bet until it loses, you'll be betting on the hard-10 more frequently than the ALL (ie: you'd be making more wagers on the hard-10 than you would on the ALL...since they both lose on SEVEN, but only hard-10 loses on EASY-10).
So not only is the HE higher on the hard-10 parlay, but in a given session (assuming you put the bet up once it's lost), you'll lose even more with the hard-10 due the fact you're placing that wager more frequently than the ALL.
But -- it sure as hell is fun to hit that parlay (if it ever comes!).
EDIT: Chance of hitting a 3x parlay (collecting on third hit) on 6 or 8 is 1 in 1331. [ 1/(1/11^3) ]. This one pays 999-to-1. (999-1331)/1331 = 24.94% HE. If wagered only ONCE, this is slightly better than hard-10 parlay. However, if you're going to constantly keep it up once it loses, I'd guess it's likely worse than the hard-10 parlay, because it loses even more frequently than the hard-10. My gut instinct -- it's worse overall for that situation.
So not only is the HE higher on the hard-10 parlay, but in a given session (assuming you put the bet up once it's lost), you'll lose even more with the hard-10 due the fact you're placing that wager more frequently than the ALL.
But -- it sure as hell is fun to hit that parlay (if it ever comes!).
EDIT: Chance of hitting a 3x parlay (collecting on third hit) on 6 or 8 is 1 in 1331. [ 1/(1/11^3) ]. This one pays 999-to-1. (999-1331)/1331 = 24.94% HE. If wagered only ONCE, this is slightly better than hard-10 parlay. However, if you're going to constantly keep it up once it loses, I'd guess it's likely worse than the hard-10 parlay, because it loses even more frequently than the hard-10. My gut instinct -- it's worse overall for that situation.
