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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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March 30th, 2016 at 6:35:08 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

In a phrase, too much variance. There is a very good chance to be ahead after many sessions or even years based on pure luck, especially when you play the odds bets. Similarly, someone who has some skill may have losing sessions or years even if they have the edge (just ask any honest AP). In short, you can't distinguish skill from luck over a short timeframe by financial results alone. You actually have to look at the dice.

If you can observe that your dice behave a certain way every 3 or 10 or 25 rolls on average, such as not tumbling sideways or skidding to a stop face-up, then that's knowledge you can use to recompute the house edge on the bets you make, and then adjust how you bet to maximize your expected gain. Nobody who practices dice throwing ever seems to do this, though.

Hopefully not years, but I think I would try to avoid playing anything that had such a small edge where you could go years without winning.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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March 30th, 2016 at 7:57:46 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Hopefully not years, but I think I would try to avoid playing anything that had such a small edge where you could go years without winning.

I'm really talking about the typical, occasional gambler who knows how to count or maybe plays an above average poker game but doesn't live in a gaming town. A full-time AP would be hard-pressed to go for years losing and still be considered an AP.

The thing about dice is that if you had enough influence to generate an edge, there would be some pretty simple betting spreads to minimize variance and guarantee a win over any reasonable timeframe, like a few weeks. However, tracking only bankroll or an uncorrelated stat like SRR would never tell you enough to determine where that edge was.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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March 30th, 2016 at 7:59:20 PM permalink
Math


On a bouncy table I use a shot which takes the alligator board out of the
mix, and you do it every shot. I did not start doing this to avoid the
back wall, but I was getting tired of the crap from casino's when you
threw a shot that looks more like everyone else that sets the dice.

I also starting to use the shot because it works far better on a bouncy table
than a shot with more elevation prior to hitting the table.

Then I found something interesting, the shot not only worked better on
a bouncy table, but even on a table with decent bounce I was getting anywhere from
1-2 more rolls on average per hand.

For years I used to worry about the charts and the on axis finish percentage and all the
other crap, now I worry about the result..... that is it. There are a couple of things
I look for in the finish, but mostly I measure the term of each roll.

When I play at home I measure the SRR, when I play at a casino I measure the SRR and
wins and losses. What was my average hand on that casino, as compared to others, What
was my average hand with a over hand shot as compared to a tabletop shot

The golfer wants to know how often he hit the fairway, because it may indicate a better
chance of winning than another player... Likewise a craps player that can average 7.8 rolls per
hand after the come out, has a better chance to win than one that averages 6. I would
rather spend my time on a table where I win more than 60% of the time than on a table where
I win less than 40% of the time. Most of the time that is because you can adapt your shot
better on one table than you can another. I know what my average is on every table in the
area, and I use that information when I play.

These golfers today are great, but it is no secrete some favor some courses over another
because that course better fits there game. A long ball hitter wants to play on a course
with longer par 5's , a player with a shorter drive wants a shorter course so the long
ball hitter has less of an advantage. I want a shorter table with less bounce because i
have more options.

In the end, I am not trying to give you a hard time, I just look for different things to
guide my play. You don't agree, your not alone, I took many GTC classes, many of
those folks don't agree with what I am doing, nor to I agree with their on axis
stuff.

Someday we can play a game and you will either understand what I do or you
wont.

dicesetter
Last edited by: dicesitter on Mar 30, 2016
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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March 30th, 2016 at 9:05:07 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Someday we can play a game and you will either understand what I do or you wont.

Why aren't you explaining it here? You've made a lot of bold claims but you've never backed them up with anything specific at all. No numbers, no data, no player edge calculations, nothing. You just claimed to be able to throw the dice so they miss the alligator bumps 100% of the time. That's highly unlikely to begin with, but it's even more incredible that you'd actually develop such a skill and not know how it affected the dice probabilities or your edge. Why should anyone believe your outlandish claims of dice-throwing prowess when you won't even provide the scantest bit of explanation? And then on top of it, how do you justify your even more outlandish claim that, in the bigger picture, you're not actually all that good at dice throwing and anyone could be better than you with just a bit of effort?

It just doesn't add up. You'll need to do a lot better in explaining yourself if you expect anyone here to believe your claims.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
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March 30th, 2016 at 9:44:33 PM permalink
Confucius say never tell fib about winning lottery, some may ask to see ticket.

I just summed up 38 pages in one sentence.
Can't go wrong reading M.E's posts
however its getting redundant perhaps this is an agree to
disagree situation.
Last edited by: rainman on Mar 30, 2016
eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
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March 31st, 2016 at 4:49:44 AM permalink
DS: Can you please explain what it means to "take the alligator board out of the mix"? I thought the shooter had to hit the back wall or would be at risk of the casino calling a 'no roll'!?

You have also mentioned video postings of your shots. Can you please provide a link? I know ME says the dice just 'bounce around' implying no influence, but maybe
I can pick up some pointers on the visual mechanics of your toss.

There is an expert here in town who invented 'rush poker' and he claims any attempt on my part to develop 'trained hands' is not going to work at my age.
You know, you can't teach an old dog new tricks; and one can't physically be born again into a Tiger Woods dice prodigy scenario.

Thank you.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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March 31st, 2016 at 8:02:36 AM permalink
eclectic


My video stuff is somewhere on you tube, it was under dicesetter 1 and 2 I think.

As far as taking the alligator board out of play, you can do that with a number of shots
There are three shots I have seen that do that very well. Two of which I can throw, the
other, not so much ...laughing.

You will notice that on most tables the alligator board starts about a inch or so
up the wall. All you need to do is use a shot that hits that lower part and stops
or comes back. Now when you use them, now and then you can screw up
and throw to hard or get a bounce you don't want, and hit up in the wall, but
that is on you, that is not because that the shot does not work.

Now math is pretty good at insults, and he has repeated a number of times that
I am to stupid to know the difference between a shot that bounces all over the
table, hits people in the chest and off every stack of chips on the table, and the
ones that consistently use the lower inch of the table. I know better, and so
does he.

Eclectic, age and hands are a problem, me to, as you get to my age you tend
to be very different from day to day. that's why I keep it very simple. I keep
track of my SRR on different tables and at home.

I will play tonight, I know which shot has worked on this table before so I
will use it. I have three sets I will start with, 65,51..... 35,31 or 15,21
Now since you have no idea how I will throw them, they are of no use to
you. But they are the only ones I will use. If I start and get an SRR over 7
I will continue to use it. If on the come out roll I get a 7 and the second
or third roll after that is the same seven , I will adjust the set to the next
option. If I throw 5-6 short hands in a row and the dice look good and
my SRR is still low I will go home or try one last ditch effort with an
all seven set.

Now to be honest, if I have 5-6 short hands in a row, I don't fret
about it, shit happens... I wont risk my money on less than a 7
SRR.


dicesetter
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
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March 31st, 2016 at 9:09:39 AM permalink
Persistence is often an admirable trait, I think they sell a poster/picture about persistence that you see in lawyers and doctors offices frequently........
OK, I googled it, saw several. The one with the mouse wearing a football helmet, approaching the mousetrap baited with cheese was cute ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
  • Threads: 32
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March 31st, 2016 at 9:19:50 AM permalink
tf


If you have a cheese head hat on, the trap wont work!!!!!!!!

dicesetter
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 151
  • Posts: 19798
March 31st, 2016 at 9:44:45 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

eclectic


My video stuff is somewhere on you tube, it was under dicesetter 1 and 2 I think.

As far as taking the alligator board out of play, you can do that with a number of shots
There are three shots I have seen that do that very well. Two of which I can throw, the
other, not so much ...laughing.

You will notice that on most tables the alligator board starts about a inch or so
up the wall. All you need to do is use a shot that hits that lower part and stops
or comes back. Now when you use them, now and then you can screw up
and throw to hard or get a bounce you don't want, and hit up in the wall, but
that is on you, that is not because that the shot does not work.

Now math is pretty good at insults, and he has repeated a number of times that
I am to stupid to know the difference between a shot that bounces all over the
table, hits people in the chest and off every stack of chips on the table, and the
ones that consistently use the lower inch of the table. I know better, and so
does he.

Eclectic, age and hands are a problem, me to, as you get to my age you tend
to be very different from day to day. that's why I keep it very simple. I keep
track of my SRR on different tables and at home.

I will play tonight, I know which shot has worked on this table before so I
will use it. I have three sets I will start with, 65,51..... 35,31 or 15,21
Now since you have no idea how I will throw them, they are of no use to
you. But they are the only ones I will use. If I start and get an SRR over 7
I will continue to use it. If on the come out roll I get a 7 and the second
or third roll after that is the same seven , I will adjust the set to the next
option. If I throw 5-6 short hands in a row and the dice look good and
my SRR is still low I will go home or try one last ditch effort with an
all seven set.

Now to be honest, if I have 5-6 short hands in a row, I don't fret
about it, shit happens... I wont risk my money on less than a 7
SRR.


dicesetter

So if you could find a table without the alligator boards there would be absolutely no question your shot works. Your SRR number would skyrocket to a point where it's practically impossible to be considered luck/variance. Please demonstrate that and then I'll be convinced you have an advantage.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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