Oh come on, now you're just insulting everyone's intelligence. You expect anyone to believe that in a live casino setting, you can bet an average of $133 and receive an expected total of $325? That would be a player advantage of over 140%.Quote: dicesitterI have found any combination of the 2v set I lose on average $95 per hand, with a starting bet of $133 ( depending on pass line number)
I have found two combinations of the 3v set gets me an average of $192 profit per hand.
Whatever "practice" you're doing on your home craps table obviously doesn't translate to live play for real wagers. Otherwise you'd never be concerned with running out of money on your road trip.
This is why it's important to actually understand the math before you embark on an endeavor like "dice setting for fun and profit." Unfortunately many people don't see it that way; that's why the con artists selling dice-control seminars find an endless supply of marks who are both gullible and greedy enough to fall for their scams.Quote: DeMangoThe classic mistake of every DI wannabee: My set has only two sevens!!! Yup, if you keep your results 100% on axis. And with no correlation, a whopping SRR of 8!!! Harder than 18 yo's in a row. After seven years, still doesn't know jack.
Claims about what might happen if you can keep the dice on axis are at least initially plausible, despite the near-impossibility of actually doing so. It's when the DI practitioners try to put numbers to their claims that things become clear. It might be hard to control the dice, but it's even harder to fabricate plausible statistical evidence when you don't understand statistics in the first place. Dicesitter's most recent claim of >100% edge is a perfect example. So is every claim of an SRR in excess of 7.5 (or less than 4). Trying to minimize or maximize the frequency of seven isn't even the right approach if you could even control the dice in the first place. But who cares about the correct approach when you're preying on the gullible, right?
When I ask you to buy a book, or pay me for a class or charge
for a video, then you can make that goofy statement.
Your getting frustrated because I am having fun and am affective
with my practice. You can't do it, and in order to not feel your
failing, you try to make yourself and everyone around you feel
it cant be done.
Hey that's a choice you can make, now I would not make that
choice, but its a free world.
dicesetter
If it feels good, do it.
But don't come here making your grandiose B.S. claims that "I have found two combinations of the 3v set gets me an average of $192 profit
per hand."
No, I'll call B.S. when I see it regardless of whether you're charging for it or not. The only goofy statement here is yours: "I have found two combinations of the 3v set gets me an average of $192 profit per hand." That's not only goofy, it's an outright lie, easily disproven by your previous admissions such as:Quote: dicesitterWhen I ask you to buy a book, or pay me for a class or charge for a video, then you can make that goofy statement.
33 years of losing at the normal rate of less than 5% (pass bet + odds, place bets, a few hardways) would easily be overcome by a year or two shooting at +140% edge. Too bad that +140% edge is only in your head or you really would be a lifetime winner.Quote: dicesitterI am not a lifetime winner, never will be, I spent 40 years playing this game and only 7 working on it.
Calm down your going to have a heart attack then I am going to feel
badly.
I can see your frustration growing by the minute, it is getting so bad your
no longer making any sense.
That lifetime winner thing is a good one. If I played for 40 years and if I
worked on my throw for 7 years and finally got where I am having fun, you
think I can make up for all those years in 12 months when I play 1 time a
week and am a red chip player ( most times).
Now I don't want you to get so upset, you cant sleep so I will finish this as nicely as
I can. My practice sessions of the other day really have nothing to do with the
last 40 years of play. Unless our assuming if I lost the very first day I played, that
would mean I could never win at any other time. My practice at my table tells me
which set reacts best to my shot. Its not perfect, but its the best information
I have when I go to a real table. This may be over your head, but we do the same
thing when we sight in our guns, some ammo works better in a gun than another, so when
we hunt we use the one that works the best. Some fishing baits run better at different
speeds than others. some runs deeper than others. We select the bait that in practice
does the best job for us.
Now I understand craps to you is luck, 100% random, and you may as well go to
the table stone drunk and play. I am ok with that, and you should do that. I would never
get on here and discourage you from playing the way you want to play.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterI play 1 time a week and am a red chip player ( most times).
$133 starting bet with red chips? I guess it's more plausible than having a 140% player edge from dice control, but that's not saying much.Quote: dicesitterI have found any combination of the 2v set I lose on average $95 per hand, with a starting bet of $133 ( depending on pass line number)
Enjoy your fishing trip. I hope your boat has fewer holes in it than your stories do.
your coming apart, cool down, even if some people have a better toss
than you or me, we can still enjoy a full, fruitful life.
Craps remember is a hobby.
As I indicated I have always been a red chip player, now and then I move up
a tad. The $133 across bet I was talking about was on my practice table. Now I
may be mistaken, if I play red chips at the casino, and green chips on my
practice table, am I still a red chip player or did I move up.
Also if you calm down, take a long slow breath, I indicated I practiced this week
with much larger bets because you have been going on and on about me making
millions. I thought well I will try a different style of betting to see what happens.
I put out data from my practice sessions because it is information, just as you talk
about different odds and so on, did you imply everyone that ever plays craps should
do exactly what "you" think is the right thing, of course not, your giving information.
I say well I played a good number of hands with a higher domination of bets, when
I used the 2v sets I lost, when I used the 3v I won . That was a fact based on a good
number of hands.......poor Math, whoa is me this fraud expects everyone in the world
to run out and use the 3v, or now he is going to every table he every plays at and
expects to win $192 per hand for every hand he plays.
Math this is just information..... take it or leave it.....
There is nothing in your behavior which suggests you give a damn, when I post just
move on, you offer nothing I am interested in, and I offer nothing you are.
Don't fret, if my shot is off I can fix it, if my boat leaks I can patch it.
This is a wonderful time to be alive and play craps, ( not to mention fishing)
dicesetter
Who's available when? And where?
I love to fish, even ice fish.
Our best trip of the year is several days in a sleeper house on Red Lake in Minnesota
and the hit the craps table at Turtle Lake on the way home. -20 outside and warm
as toast in the sleeper house. The walleye bite all night, so your in and out of the
bunk beds all night.
We tell the wives it is to far to drive in one day so we have to stay over-night
at the casino. Now wives are funny, they cant figure out how we can drive all the
way up there in one day, but then cant make it home in one day.
What type of fishing do you have there.
dicesetter
This might be an appropriate time for one of the moderators to split this discussion off into another thread ( cough ). You want to talk fishing? I can talk fishing. I can talk fishing just about as badly as I can talk gambling. I've never been ice fishing though. I've read some articles, seen some pics, seems to be very popular way up north where people actually see ice on lakes. I suspect that a bunch of those fishermen actually stop about half the way to the frozen lake, get a room near, or in, a casino resort, and a week later stop by Costco for some filets during their drive home. "Honey, was a great trip, hard to imagine the price of bait this year though".Quote: dicesitterTwofeathers
I love to fish, even ice fish.
Our best trip of the year is several days in a sleeper house on Red Lake in Minnesota
and the hit the craps table at Turtle Lake on the way home. -20 outside and warm
as toast in the sleeper house. The walleye bite all night, so your in and out of the
bunk beds all night.
We tell the wives it is to far to drive in one day so we have to stay over-night
at the casino. Now wives are funny, they cant figure out how we can drive all the
way up there in one day, but then cant make it home in one day.
What type of fishing do you have there.
dicesetter
I am on here to talk about craps, but there are a couple of folks that
don't think that is a good idea unless you talk about what they believe
in. Sad state of affairs.
dicesetter
PS. 7 years ago I bought a new tournament boat for walleye fishing.
Both my wife and son told me to take the older one to Canada, Well
you know how that works, I wanted to take the new one and when I
piled it up on a rock bar in very heavy waves, well you can imagine
that conversation when I got home.
Quote: DeMangoThe classic mistake of every DI wannabee: My set has only two sevens!!! Yup, if you keep your results 100% on axis. And with no correlation, a whopping SRR of 8!!! Harder than 18 yo's in a row. After seven years, still doesn't know jack.
Maybe he has a favorable anomalie with his toss.
Funny you said that.Quote: dicesittertwo
I am on here to talk about craps, but there are a couple of folks that
don't think that is a good idea unless you talk about what they believe
in. Sad state of affairs.
dicesetter
PS. 7 years ago I bought a new tournament boat for walleye fishing.
Both my wife and son told me to take the older one to Canada, Well
you know how that works, I wanted to take the new one and when I
piled it up on a rock bar in very heavy waves, well you can imagine
that conversation when I got home.
There are/is a group of people,
people I don't run into often.
When we bump into each other
the chat goes something like
'Two, where you been, how are you'
Maybe it was '2, where you been, how are you'
What is funny is that no one here has ever called me 'Two' or '2'.
And you have done so twice now.
Actually, I'm not sure anyone has ever responded to one of my posts before.
And you have done that twice.
There might be something seriously wrong wid you. Just sayin'.
Cheers to all! 2F, or just 'Two'
Quote: DanMahoneyMaybe he has a favorable anomalie with his toss.
Must have, makes a zillion every turn of the dice.
Quote: dicesitterAs I indicated I have always been a red chip player, now and then I move up
a tad. The $133 across bet I was talking about was on my practice table. Now I
may be mistaken, if I play red chips at the casino, and green chips on my
practice table, am I still a red chip player or did I move up.
It doesn't matter. If you divide both the numerator and denominator of a fraction by 5 to account for the difference between your $25 fake-money at-home denomination and your $5 real-money in-casino denomination, the ratios remain equal. You have essentially claimed that when you throw the dice with one orientation, you win 144% of your wager, and when you throw the dice with another orientation, you lose 71% of your wager. Except those results only reflect your most recent handful of sessions (was it 50?) on your home practice table. Those figures do not represent your long-term expectation at a real casino. I'm pretty sure you know that, so it is dishonest for you to imply otherwise.
It should be clear that such results reflect nothing more than the variance inherent in craps or any game involving dice rolls, and that the orientation of the dice has nothing to do with it. You want to hold up your at-home practice results as evidence of what anyone can accomplish with dice setting. It's a false conclusion. Even if you just divide everything by 5 to account for betting red chips, you're still basically saying that you can win $38.40 (on average) per hand when you throw with an average bet of $26.60. If you play once a week and you stay at the table for 10 turns, you'd win roughly $20,000 per year.
Now, we both know you don't bet red chips and win $20,000 per year in real casinos. Your math doesn't add up, and it never will as long as you keep making up numeric results and/or using invalid reasoning to try to impress people.
You had your chance to discuss craps without insult.
Not interested
dicesetter
I tried, but then you misused statistics in a misguided attempt to prove your point. If anything was insulting, it was that. You do not have a 144% player advantage when you play craps in a casino. Nobody does, not even actual cheaters using loaded dice.Quote: dicesitterYou had your chance to discuss craps without insult.
Not interested
And let's be clear: throwing dice on a table in your basement is not actually "playing craps." Craps is a game played for money against a casino, but you've already said that you did not undertake your long years of practice to make money. While I can't fathom why else you may have done so, that's beside the point. At-home dice throwing results are not relevant to "playing craps" if those do not translate to profits in an actual casino craps game played for actual money.
By all accounts, your at-home results have no correlation to your in-casino results. If they ever do, I'm sure you'll find no shortage of willing discussion partners. But next time, please try to be honest with your numbers.
Go bowling or do something you understand.
I am sure the moderator has over looked all the insults you have thrown at
me.... I don't mind them it just goes to show the bias of the site.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesittermath
Go bowling or do something you understand.
I am sure the moderator has over looked all the insults you have thrown at
me.... I don't mind them it just goes to show the bias of the site.
dicesetter
You are correct. The moderators show bias towards, intelligent, rational thinking members like Math Extremist. They show bias against members who believe in hocus pocus.
Quote: dicesittermath
Go bowling or do something you understand.
I am sure the moderator has over looked all the insults you have thrown at
me.... I don't mind them it just goes to show the bias of the site.
dicesetter
Dice,
I am reading right along. You are both keeping within boundaries for what I call "vigorous discussion". I can't tell you how to feel, but I can tell you that you're feeling insulted when it's not you who is being insulted (as a third party, whether you think I'm objective or biased), it's your claims and/or methodology.
When you say you don't believe it is possible to affect the dice with sets and a shot
which varies from the typical shot.....nothing wrong with that..
Calling some one a liar because you cant do it or figure it out...see that is an insult.. or when you
talk about the data not being truthful.... that is an insult...
If you cant see the difference.... we don't have much to talk about.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterBeachumbabs
When you say you don't believe it is possible to affect the dice with sets and a shot
which varies from the typical shot.....nothing wrong with that..
Calling some one a liar because you cant do it or figure it out...see that is an insult.. or when you
talk about the data not being truthful.... that is an insult...
"If you cant see the difference.... we don't have much to talk about."
dicesetter
If only that were true.
I haven't insulted you. Pointing out the logical inconsistencies in your stories is not an insult. Demonstrating that your claims lead to nonsensical results is not an insult. Explaining the errors you made in reasoning is not an insult.Quote: dicesitterWhen you say you don't believe it is possible to affect the dice with sets and a shot
which varies from the typical shot.....nothing wrong with that..
Calling some one a liar because you cant do it or figure it out...see that is an insult.. or when you
talk about the data not being truthful.... that is an insult...
By putting real numbers to your claims, you've removed any subjectivity from the issue: those numbers can be objectively analyzed. You threw the dice for a short period of time on your home dice table with one orientation, observed a short-term +144% return, threw the dice again for a short period of time with a different orientation, observed a short-term -71% return, and used those results to infer that you have an edge in real casino play based on how you orient the dice. That is a wildly improper conclusion, more so because your actual casino results over a longer period of time don't bear that out.
What's even worse is that you won't even admit that you've been mistaken, for example, by acknowledging that you don't make $20,000 per year betting red chips. That would be an acknowledgement that your home results do not actually correspond to your real money results, and *that* would imply that perhaps your years of practice have been for naught.
That is pure hogwash.......
And the reason I know what you just said was pure hogwash is because everything
I placed on here is 100% accurate.....
Your problem, like Math.... is you cant just accept information as information.
If I go to the table and throw 5 hands with the 2v set combinations and I lost
$95 average per hand..... and then I throw a number of hands with the 3v set
and win...... that is information....that is what happened that morning... end of
story..... not the beginning of a book which suggests everyone use the 3v
set. No human being with half a brain would suggest because you made
more money on one set over another, you are going on a two week trip and
make millions. If I have better results with one set at home, I certainly
will try that first at the casino. THAT IS ALL THAT MEANS.
Has nothing to do with what can happen tomorrow, or next week or next
month at the casino.... it is just a conversation... the very same kind I have
everyday with a couple of others I know..... they call and tell about last
nights practice, what set did they use, if they had a good roll, great. that
does not mean they will have another one today.
Several times a week we record sets we use and were there any combination
of numbers that we could see differently with each..... it is information, a conversation
based on what we did.
I will give you one more example, and we will see what your response is.
I just went to my table.... I threw 10 rolls with the 3v set with my table top
shot...(not PARR or GTC)
here are the results
3/3 3/2 2/1 3/4 3/2 5/1 3/4 3/3 5/3 3/2
I then went to a hardway set
3/6 6/5 6/4 4/4 6/2 5/3 6/3 5/9 6/5 5/4
Now it is quite clear there is no difference between you and math in how you
take information....... to me this shows a very clear pattern of numbers which appear
with each set that is different.
that is what I mean when I suggest a player and set can change things.... the problem
is so what, what can you do with this, and can you go further and see if there is
some way to use the data to over come a little of the HA. That is 95% of it
and the real hard part, you don't even want to discuss the 5%.
You two suggest just because I post that I must be lying or worse. If the numbers I
provide show nothing...why in the hell do you get upset enough to call me a liar.
that is what baffles me........no one is going to make up numbers from their practice
because they would have no idea how in the hell some one else would view or use those
numbers.
Wizard, don't call me a liar on here and then call me to discuss craps.
Experimenting with sets and shots is all I am interested in, the rest has been tried for
years and has failed.
dicesetter
I am saying that it's not a large enough sample-
I'm upstairs at a casino right now- if I walk down stairs and play 10 hands of baccarat and bet all banker and it comes in because I selected the right cut card placement that doesn't mean I can do it every time or that it was anything more then random-
IFIFIFIFIFIFI What you are saying. isisisiisisiisii true why not go to a casino and let math or myself back you- it would be absurd not to-
Quote: dicesitter3/3 3/2 2/1 3/4 3/2 5/1 3/4 3/3 5/3 3/2
I then went to a hardway set
3/6 6/5 6/4 4/4 6/2 5/3 6/3 5/9 6/5 5/4
to me this shows a very clear pattern of numbers which appear
with each set that is different.
that is what I mean when I suggest a player and set can change things....
Aside from the fact that you threw an easy fourteen with your hardway set, this anecdote is illustrative of your problem. You say "to me this shows a very clear pattern of numbers ... that is different." That's just not sound reasoning. You want to believe in dice setting so badly, you're unwilling to actually put in the work to analyze your results using correct techniques. It's like flipping a coin once, seeing heads, and then reasoning that if you turn the coin over and flip it again, it'll be tails. One flip is not a sufficient sample for a coin. Ten rolls is not a sufficient sample for a pair of dice. It just isn't.
You say you want to "see if there is some way to use the data to over come a little of the HA." Let me be very clear: if your ten-roll practice samples were at all representative of your long-term expectations in a real casino, you wouldn't merely "over come a little of the HA," you'd have a three-digit player edge and break the bank everywhere you went. By itself, the fact that you're not breaking the bank everywhere should tell you that maybe your ten-roll practice samples aren't relevant to your in-casino results. Have you actually tracked those in-casino results and tried to analyze those for distribution bias?
one like me. Your hand structure dictates much of what you can do.
===========================================================================
DS, long thin fingers = the preferred 3-finger grip, as opposed to the 2-finger or 1-finger? I suppose that the
'fat finger' physiology is important. If one has big hands and fingers, I would think that a 1-finger grip works
better? Tks for any feedback.
IT looks like we are leaving for St Louis Sunday morning. I am taking my lap top
along so I will email you with the times for sure.
take care
dicesetter
I will do some more practice Friday and Saturday, then we are off on the trip.
I am going to try more elevated betting system than has been my normal
play. I wont play this unless I find a shot that fits what ever table I am
playing on.
Math and the /wizard suggest just because it appears set and thrower affects
outcome, I should come home with a truck full of their money. I don't think
they know what their talking about because the outcome is affected by
how well you can make that shot on a particular day, not just because you
set the dice.... but I will be either be pleased or not.. we will see.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterl do some more practice Friday and Saturday, then we are off on the trip.
Math and the /wizard suggest just because it appears set and thrower affects
outcome, I should come home with a truck full of their money. I don't think
they know what their talking about because the outcome is affected by
how well you can make that shot on a particular day, not just because you
set the dice.... but I will be either be pleased or not.. we will see.
dicesetter
Good luck! In all seriousness, I'd love to see you throw some day. But I'm also quite sure that Math and Wizard know exactly what they are talking about. Your statement of how well you can make a shot on a particular day, apply to everybody and illustrates the effects of randomization. If you can influence an outcome even a small percentage of the time, you should be able to flip the house edge to your favor. Yet, we haven't seen any qualified proof of that, which is why you have many skeptics on this site.
Anyway, as I said before, good luck on your trip, I always want players to beat the casino!
Just for the record, if you wind up with a truck, or two, full of cash then you will need armed assistance. PM me, I work relatively cheap, and relatively effectively, and can leap into action on a moments notice (usually). Oh, and best of luck to ya!Quote: dicesittertrip starting
I will do some more practice Friday and Saturday, then we are off on the trip.
I am going to try more elevated betting system than has been my normal
play. I wont play this unless I find a shot that fits what ever table I am
playing on.
<really big snip>
. but I will be either be pleased or not.. we will see.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitter... the outcome is affected by how well you can make that shot on a particular day,
*sets dice setting decoder ring*
"My shot was working" = "I got lucky."
"My shot was off" = "I lost my ass."
I know math and the wizard are smart guys, I did not mean it that way.
My point is that they totally discount the notion that craps is like many
other things you do. They think variance is the cause for winning one
day and then not another, I know it has much to do with how well you can
execute the shot. There is and will be always be luck involved and you cant
discount variance, but then again you cant discount skill either.
thanks for the post
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterMIDWEST
I know math and the wizard are smart guys, I did not mean it that way.
My point is that they totally discount the notion that craps is like many
other things you do. They think variance is the cause for winning one
day and then not another, I know it has much to do with how well you can
execute the shot. There is and will be always be luck involved and you cant
discount variance, but then again you cant discount skill either.
thanks for the post
dicesetter
So when you win it is because you have influenced the dice and when you lose it is because you have not influenced the dice ?
Quote: nodummy57So when you win it is because you have influenced the dice and when you lose it is because you have not influenced the dice ?
Exactly! You sir, are no dummy!
Quote: dicesitterMath and the /wizard suggest just because it appears set and thrower affects
outcome, I should come home with a truck full of their money. I don't think
they know what their talking about because the outcome is affected by
how well you can make that shot on a particular day, not just because you
set the dice.... but I will be either be pleased or not.. we will see.
No, it's far simpler than that. In truth, "just because it appears set and thrower affects outcome" doesn't mean those factors actually do. You are making the assumption that you have some control but in reality you don't -- at least not based on the information you've posted publicly. It's a very, very common mistake to attribute causality to random coincidences, and when you combine that mistake with your overwhelming desire to believe in dice control, you have an inordinately strong confirmation bias. As someone else posted, when you win, you chalk it up to controlling the dice because your shot was working. When you lose, you blame it on your shot being off.
That's a convenient rationalization but it's grossly incorrect. You have not demonstrated to any objective level of statistical certainty that you can control the dice at all, ever. You may have proved it to yourself -- and clearly, you believe that you can control the dice when you "make that shot on a particular day" -- but I submit that is nothing but wishful thinking combined with a lack of critical evaluation. You don't want to hear about the simpler explanation: you are getting lucky when you win and unlucky when you don't.
If you decide to step outside your bubble of confirmation bias and willful statistical ignorance, there are lots of people here who can help you actually evaluate your results and make legitimate statistical conclusions as to whether -- and to what extent -- you are influencing anything. There is an entire branch of mathematics that deals with sampling random populations like dice rolls and evaluating whether they conform to predetermined distributions. A simple chi-squared test would reveal far more than all of your informal anecdotes.
Now, I don't expect you to do this investigation. Not only is it a fair amount of work, but it is almost surely going to reveal that you don't have the control that you think you do. Nevertheless, the tools are there should you wish to use them. But please, don't suggest that the mathematically-inclined members here don't know what we're talking about. Not only do I know what I'm talking about, I know what you're not talking about.
Quote: dicesitterMIDWEST
I know math and the wizard are smart guys, I did not mean it that way.
My point is that they totally discount the notion that craps is like many
other things you do. They think variance is the cause for winning one
day and then not another, I know it has much to do with how well you can
execute the shot. There is and will be always be luck involved and you cant
discount variance, but then again you cant discount skill either.
thanks for the post
dicesetter
Before this slides any further, I believe the "wizard" you're all referring to is what dicesetter called Wizard of Nothing (WoN) rather than the Wizard (Mike).
Quote: dicesitter
Math and the /wizard suggest just because it appears set and thrower affects
outcome, I should come home with a truck full of their money. I don't think
they know what their talking about because the outcome is affected by
how well you can make that shot on a particular day,
dicesetter
You sir, want your cake and eat it.
If you win a truckload of money, you can say 'I told you so'
If you don't win a truckload of money, you can still say 'I told you so'
That's just going to be silly.
Silly rich, or silly poor!!!
Let's be more sensible. Play minimum stakes for lots and lots and LOTS of rounds..
If you win a truckload, you can probably say that 'After a few throws I found my shot and kept with it ( a sensible way to play if you are indeed an influencer)
If you lose, you would have to concede that even with years of practice and an extended session there, that you had no evidence of being able to influence.
I don't know who all the wizards are, but I assume their are some.
dicesetter
I will just be honest..... that is all I have to do.
If my shot is on and I can make the correct adjustments I will make money. If I
cant I wont. It is that easy. If my shot looks like crap and I still make money I
will indicate that for one simple reason it will be the truth.
You cant spend 7-8 years on a couple of different shots, and not see when you
throw them correctly and when you don't....
It is making that great shot I am after..... that is where the satisfaction comes from.
I understand you and math and wizard do not understand...sorry cant help it.
We don't all look for the same things I life.... I got enough money, but leaving the
table and having a pit boss or stick person say, I can see you have worked on
that shot..... see that is a great feeling
dicesetter
Quote: nodummy57Do the words " Never smarten up a chump " ring a bell ?
You mean cheesehead don't you?